Vuelta a España: Stage 11 (ITT) Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a time trial. This has already been a very tough race and it will be interesting to see how the legs of the GC riders will respond after a day off the bike. We have often seen riders having an off-day after a rest day and alone against the clock, you can really lose some time if you’re not ready.

This year’s Vuelta is one for the climbers and that shows on the time trial too. The 38.8 km around Tarazona include a long category 3 climb. The road book has Alto del Moncayo to be 9 km long but actually, it’s already been uphill for a while before the official start of the climb. Compared to the last time trial in the Tour de France this year, this isn’t as tough. It’s definitely a hard course but with an average gradient of just 4.1 % and no steep parts, Alto del Moncayo won’t kill the hopes of the time trial experts.

In fact, the second part of the route favors the big engines like Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara. Most of the final 20 km are downhill and we can expect a fast finish with a tailwind on this second part.

Favorites

Not surprisingly, the bookmakers' favorite is Tony Martin. He’s the double World Champion and he’s simply in a league of his own against the clock these years. The last time trial of the Tour had two hard climbs on the menu and naturally, a big rider like Martin didn’t stand a chance against Froome and Contador. The climb on this time trial isn’t as hard as those in the Tour and with a long and fast descent, it will be extremely difficult to beat the German Panzerwagen.

Fabian Cancellara is probably the only rider able to take this win away from Tony Martin. However, Cancellara hasn't been the same time machine we used see in recent years. This is probably also why he’s now focusing on the road race instead of the time trial for the World Championships in Florence later this month. Cancellara looks very lean right now and so far, he has been been very good on the climbs in this Vuelta. Because of this, some may say the climb favors him over Tony Martin but I think Cancellara’s hard work in front of the peloton will show in time trial. Tony Martin has been able to “take it easy” and save himself for this stage and that will be important. Of course, Cancellara is still a world-class time trialist and it will be a close fight for the stage win Tarazona!

Outsiders

Looking at the start list, there are many strong riders able to make podium in this time trial. Specialists like Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, Kristof Vandewalle and Lieuwe Westra all have what it takes to put in a strong performance. The climb may be too much for Vandewalle but I’m sure he’s eager to show off his Belgian national jersey. Pinotti did very well in the final time trial of Tour of Poland a month ago and on a good day, he should be up there fighting for top3. Westra has been very anonymous so far in the Vuelta. However, the team explains that Westra feels better and better every day and they now hope for a strong time trial from the Dutch national champion. For other good outsiders look to Luis León Sanchez, Jan Barta, Ben Hermans, Dario Cataldo and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Astana has a lot of riders able to do well in this discipline. Jakob Fuglsang, Janez Brajkovic, Tanel Kangert and Andriy Grivko can, in theory, all do top10 but I doubt Astana will let them go full speed. There is still a long way to Madrid and Vincenzo Nibali needs his strong domestiques to be ready when it counts. Kangert sits 14^th in the overall classification before this time trial and the team may give him the green light to try his luck. He did very well in the first time trial in the Giro this year and on a good day, he may re-enter Top10 overall Wednesday afternoon.

Overall Classification

Looking at the fight for the Red Jersey, I doubt Chris Horner will lead Vuelta España after this time trial. He’s more skinny than I’ve ever seen him and even though he has done good time trials in the past, I can’t see him keep the jersey. On the final, short (9.2 km) time trial in Tirreno-Adriatico, Horner almost lost 20 seconds to Nibali. This time trial is four times as long and despite the climb, Nibali will be able to take a lot of time on the American veteran. Last year, Horner finished 13^th overall in the Tour de France but even though he was in great shape, he didn’t do well in the time trials. The first time trial in the Tour that year was about the same length as this one and back then, Horner lost more than three minutes to Nibali. The time differences won’t be as big this time but surely Vincenzo Nibali is able to take back the 43 seconds he’s after Honer in the GC. Actually, we may even see Nibali make podium in this time trial.

Astana’s big plan for this Vuelta was for Nibali to start out the race on 75 % and by the first rest day reach 100 %. So far, everything has gone according to plan and it will be a big surprise not to see Nibali in the Red Jersey at the beginning of Thursday’s stage 12.

I also expect Nicolas Roche to do well. Bjarne Riis always demands his riders to focus on the time trials and Roche has made significant improvements this year. He finished 24^th in the final time trial in Tour de Suisse and no, that wasn’t because of the hard climb. Nicolas Roche actually had 14^th best time after the flat part. In front of riders like Peraud, Millar, Monfort, Klöden etc. In the Tour the improvements continued as Roche finished  28^th in the first time trial. The Irishman has lost 2.5 kg since the Tour and that really shows on the climbs. It will be interesting to see how weight loss will affect his time trial performance this Wednesday. He won’t beat Nibali but Roche should be able to keep the other GC riders behind him.

This is also a good course for Alejandro Valverde. He knows how to keep his pace on the demanding parts and Valverde is an excellent descender. The Movistar captain did very well in the final time trial of the Tour and even though this one isn’t as tough, he should be able to clock in a great time. Also, look out for his teammate Beñat Intxausti. The Basque rider is good against the clock and his time checks will be vital for Valverde. In addition to that, Intxausti starts just in front of Tony Martin. In the first time trial of the Tour, Thomas De Gendt started in front of Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to keep his record. At the end of the day, Thomas De Gendt finished 3rd on the stage.

Starting Order

Lieuwe Westre starts as number 18 at 13:31 and his time will most like stand for a while. Marco Pinotti starts at 14:15 and just three minutes later, it’s Tony Martin’s turn to take the starting ramp. Fabian Cancellara starts at 14:54 and as the last rider, Chris Horner roles out on the course at 16:50 local time. You can see the complete starting order HERE.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this time trial, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

It’s uncertain what the following two big mountain stages will look like so the GC riders need to take as much time as possible in this uphill time trial.

Many talk about this stage as a ‘mountain time trial’ but that isn’t really accurate. It’s uphill yes, but it’s nothing like the mountains time trials we have seen in the past on Plan de Corones or Alpe d’Huez. The first 1.5 km are flat and then the climb starts with 6.6% average for the following 7.5 km. From here on it’s almost flat for 5 km with a little descent and a short ascent and this is where time trial specialists will be able to gain a lot of time on the tiny climbers.

The final 6.4 km are uphill with an average gradient of about 7% and parts of 10% with 5 km to go. It’s important to have something left in the tank for this final part of the stage and this late in the race, I’m sure we will see some surprising results.

The big favorite for the stage win is Vincenzo Nibali. He has been the best rider in the mountains so far and generally the strongest rider in the race. He did great in the first long time trial when he took 4^th place and without Wiggins, Nibali is the man to beat. Cadel Evans is another one of the contenders for the stage win but he if he couldn’t beat Nibali in a long ‘flat’ time trial, I don’t see him beating Nibali uphill either. Both Evans and Nibali have been out training on the course earlier this year and both agree that it’s going to be a high pace start of the climb. The riders with big engines who are good on the uphill parts will be able to do great in this time trial and I think Team Blanco will do well.

The Dutch team have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and they really want that stage win that will save their Giro d’Italia. Robert Gesink was close the other day and so was Wilco Kelderman the day before that. Both Gesink and Kelderman are strong against the clock - especially with so many uphill kilometers - and together with Stef Clement, who took 5^th place in the first time trial, they have three very strong contenders for the stage win.

My personal outsider for the win is Dario Cataldo. He started out great with the win in the team time trial but then he got sick. It took many days for Cataldo to get better but now he finally seems to be back at this best. He’s been good in the mountains the last couple of days helping out Uran and Henao but he’s also been able to save himself for this stage. Cataldo is the Italian Time Trial Champion and he will be eager to show off that jersey in the Giro. Winning may be too much to ask of Cataldo after his sickness but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did a great stage and made Top3. The favorites have been testing each other the last couple of days in horrible weather conditions and anyone who has been able to save some energy will have an advantage on this stage.

For other outsiders look to Ramunas Navardauskas and Tanel Kangert. Both are in the shape of their life and good against the clock. The same goes for Giovanni Visconti. He has already won two stage in this Giro d’Italia but that doesn’t mean he’s done winning. Visconti has never been better than right now and with his newfound strong mentality, he should have what it takes to win time trial soon. The last days’ impressive efforts will not favor him but he should be in for another good performance.

Favorite: Vincenzo Nibali

Top3 Pick: Cadel Evans

Jokers: Dario Cataldo / Stef Clement / Ramunas Navardauskas

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 18:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

On paper, this looks like a good stage for another breakaway to make it all way. Giovanni Visconti managed to keep the favorites behind him on Stage 15 and despite a tough climb towards the end, I think a break will make it again.

The stage starts with a 12 km descent from Télégraphe before the riders take on Mont Cenis, this time from the side the descended on Stage 15. That means the climb is only 10 km long but it still has an average gradient of 7%. The race got neutralized on Mont Cenis last time but hopefully we will get to see attacks from the very beginning this time. Stefano Pirazzi & Giovanni Visconti now leads the fight for the blue KOM jersey and even though both must be tired from Sunday’s effort, they need to stay alert and maybe attack again. Actually, looking at the stage profile, this is another very good stage for Visconti. If he’s ready again, he could make it two in a row.

Team Colombia and Androni have been very active, especially in the mountains, and with both Jackson Rodriguez and Robinson Chalapud fighting for the KOM jersey, I would imagine them to ride aggressively again on this stage. Rodriguez hasn’t been getting much out of his efforts so far in the race but if he manages to get in the morning break, this could be his big day. He’s very strong uphill and also fast on the line in a reduced group.

After the top of Mont Cenis, it’s downhill for 25 km before a flat stretch of 120 km. With 23.3 km to go the last climb of the day, Andrate, starts. It’s only a category 3 climb,but its 6.2 km have an average gradient of 8% and parts of 13% halfway to the top. There are 17.5 km to go from the top of Andrate and after a technical descent, the last 8 km are flat towards the line. The last few kilometers are tricky with sharp turns and parts of paves, so a lonely rider will have a good chance of making it all the way with a small gap on the final kilometers.

Andrate. 6,2 km with an average gradient of 8%

As said in the beginning, I think this is another day for a breakaway. It’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this one, but looking at the last few days in the mountains I see many of the Movistar riders with good legs. I’ve already mentioned José Herrada and Eros Capecchi a couple of times during this Giro d’Italia and I think this stage is perfect for both riders. Herrada has been attacking the last couple of days while Capecchi has been in the peloton looking after Beñat Intxausti. I’m sure both will try to get away on the Mont Cenis, and especially Capecchi will favor a technical descent before the line.

Team Blanco have launched ‘Plan B” after Robert Gesink lost his chances of a good overall place and they showed on Stage 15 that they are prepared to attack whenever they get the chance. Gesink, Kelderman and Garate all tried to get away on Galibier and I think it’s now time for Stef Clement to show the jersey. Clement has had a good Giro so far. He’s climbing very well and his fifth place in the time trial showed he’s in great shape. Blanco are eager to show their potential in the fight for a new sponsor and without a rider for the GC, Stef Clement can now try his luck on his own. It won’t be easy for him to drop strong climbers on Andrate but if he can hang on to the front, he can launch an attack on the flat part and then he’ll be difficult to catch.

Vini Fantini finally got their stage win with Mauro Santambrogio on Stage 14 and they will be eager to take another one. Danilo Di Luca is ‘only’ 14:44 minutes after Nibali in the GC and therefore I doubt the other teams will let him in the Top10 fight again with an early attack. Stefano Garzelli on the other hand is coming into shape and if he’s up for it, he could be a dangerous outsider for the stage win. The same goes for Oscar Gatto, even though I think the climbs are too tough for him. Still, should it all come down to the last climb, Di Luca is a good pick for the win.

There aren’t any favorites for stages like this, so instead of tipping ‘Favorite’ and ‘Top3’, I’ll leave you with these riders as my personal picks for the stage win.

Jackson Rodriguez

Eros Capecchi

Stef Clement

Stefano Garzelli

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 16:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv