Tour Preview - Stage 1

---

If you thought this was a stage for the sprinters you better modify your fantasy team. Looking at the official profile from LeTour the last 2,5 km have a part of 1,4 km with 5,8% average. But again, don’t be fooled. The average percentages of the 1400 meters may be 5,8% but 700 meters of those are around 15% up to Côte du Bois Hézalles!

On the top of the hill the riders turn left on a cobblestone section which for sure will get many riders to explode after being in red for the past 700 meters uphill. After turning right on Avenue de Centenaire it’s straight out home to the finishing line. Average of 2% - give or take.

Favorites:
This last hard part means that you won’t see sprinters like Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel in the final, but more the sort of fast guys like Peter Sagan, Phillipe Gilbert, Edvald Boasson Hagen and maybe even Matthew Goss. Sagan will be extra motivated after he lost his chances for yellow on the prologue while Phillipe Gilbert did a great prologue and now is in a good position to take the yellow jersey on home soil in Belgium.

The steep part on Côte du Bois Hézalles
Click for larger view!

At Team Sky the man for the stage is ‘Eddie the Boss’, but it will be very interesting to see how Mark Cavendish tackles the steep part after losing four kilos before the season. Cavendish had to lose weight in order to get up over the hills with the best in the Olympic Road Race and even though these 15% may be too much for him, I’m sure the World Champion won’t just sit up and take it easy.

Another guy who’s riding on home soil is the young Vacansoleil-DCM climber Wout Poels and he showed last year, in the Vuelta España, that he can be very dangerous in a final like this one. Look out for him!

My pick: Peter Sagan to win Stage 1.

Weather:
With only 10% chance of rain we should be in for another sunny day with the riders enjoying a bit of tail wind on the last 80 km back towards Liège. Let’s hope we won’t see any crashes like last year. It would be great if all the favorites made it to the mountains this time…

Photo © Laura Meseguer

Tour Preview - Prologue

---

This year’s Tour de France starts out with 6,4 km prologue in Liege, Belgium. Apparently the city of Liege has paid ASO over 4 million Euros to host the start of the Tour, so let’s hope we are in for a great show from the very start.

Favorites:

Looking at the course it’s difficult not to pick Fabian Cancellara as the big favorite. The technical route suits the Suisse time trial machine perfectly and he should be able to take good advantage of his outstanding bike handling skills. It’s a course that favors the ITT-specialists able to accelerate many times and therefore not exactly Tony Martin’s cup of tea.

In Tour de Suisse Peter Sagan showed he is capable of beating Fabian Cancellara on a technical course but this time there is no uphill section where Sagan can gain a little time on Cancellara. Bradley Wiggins is another good pick for the Top3 and I would be surprised if these riders won’t fight it out for the first yellow jersey of the Tour. If you are looking for an outsider go with Sylvain Chavanel. He is going strong right now and he aims big on this prologue.

My pick: Fabian Cancellara to win the prologue.

Weather:
As of Friday evening it should stay dry around 14:00 CET when Tom Veelers rolls down the start ramp in Liege so let’s hope it won’t change. Wind direction could change a little from SSW to SW giving the late starters a bit more tail wind on the ‘long’ stretch alongside the canal, but it shouldn’t really matter much.

You can find the starting order for the prologue right here.