Tour de Suisse: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

Bauke Mollema timed his attack perfectly on Stage 2 when he caught Ryder Hesjedal on the final kilometer and soloed away to win the stage. After the stage, Mollema was quick to point to the overall podium as his new target in the race, something I had him down for in my overall preview as well. Unfortunately the Dutch climber got a 20 seconds penalty after the stage since he had gotten a bottle of water from his team car within the last 20 km. Mollema is now 34 seconds after Cameron Meyer in the GC and that means he needs to attack more the up-coming days.

Stage 3 is 204.9 km long but the first 165 km are more or less flat. As the riders enter Meiringen the road kicks up with a small category 4 climb on Grimselstrasse. The 1.9 km with an average of 5.6 % won’t make a big selection but the following category 1 climb will indeed.

The 12.2 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.3 % but the climb is actually a lot steeper. The average gradient goes down because of a flat part of 1.2 km halfway to the top. The climb starts out with 7 % and has a part of almost 4 km with 9.5 % before it evens out. The last 2.8 km have an average gradient of
7.5 % and I expect a group of maximum 20 riders to reach the top together. There are 19.4 km to go from the top of the climb and if a lonely rider or a small group get a gap over the top, they won’t be easy to catch.

The first part of the descent is technical but the second part is easy and very fast. The final two kilometers are flat and straight out towards the finishing line. For those of you who watched the Giro d’Italia, this stage reminds me of Stage 16 to Ivrea. Beñat Intxausti won that stage after breaking away on the final flat part and if this one doesn’t end in a sprint within a reduced group, it could very well end like in Ivrea.

Giovanni Visconti came out of the Giro with two stage wins and he is still looking very strong. He finished 9^th on Stage 2 and is now 4^th overall. I doubt he will be able to keep his Giro-shape the whole week but he seems eager to get another win and it could very well be here. Visconti has a newfound strong mentality and he now knows he can win. He won a similar stage in the Giro just a couple of weeks ago and to me he is one of the big favorites for the win in Meiringen.

On paper, this third stage could also be another one for Team Blanco. With riders like Luis León Sanchez, Steven Kruijswijk, Lars-Petter Nordhaug, Wilco Kelderman and Bauke Mollema they have a very strong team. Mollema is not only good on the climbs he is also fast on the line in a reduced group. His moral is great after his stage win but he is probably also eager to take revenge for the 20 seconds penalty. If Blanco can make the race hard and keep Mollema up front, he might as well make it two in a row.

The final descent. A is the top of the climb. B is the finishing line.

Ryder Hesjedal and Daniel Martin were two of the strongest rider on the final climb on Stage 2 and I think they will both try something on this stage. Hesjedal showed he was good on the descents when he attacked numerous times in the Giro and Daniel Martin is another rider with a good sprint in a reduced group. Martin joined every move when Hesjedal was in front on Stage 2 and that was even without being able to breathe properly. If Dan Martin feels better in the rain on Stage 3, he is another strong candidate for the win.

One of the big favorites for the overall win, Rui Costa, couldn’t follow the best riders in the final on Stage 2 but I think he will only get better. He shouldn’t have problems staying in front on this final climb and with a descent towards the line, he is another one of the favorites. Like Visconti, Mollema and Martin, also Rui Costa is fast on the line and if a group of 20 riders arrive together it will be difficult to pick a winner.

With a tricky beginning of the final descent and rainy conditions, I doubt the riders aiming at the Tour de France will take any chances. Instead, the riders coming from the Giro may take a few more risks and that is something that favors Giovanni Visconti. It also favors my joker for Stage 2, Tanel Kangert. The Estonian Champion probably attacked too early in the headwind on the final climb but he seems very strong and I think he will try again on Stage 3. 

Favorite: Giovanni Visconti
Joker: Tanel Kangert

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Modified stage profile. Not official but should be accurate.

As I already wrote in the overall preview, Stage 2 has been modified due to bad weather in the mountains. That means the early HC-climb Nufenenpass has been cancelled and the stage has been shortened from 160 to 117.2 km.

A short stage is a fast stage and without the climb in the beginning, the peloton will be starting out in high speed. Many riders will look to get in the breakaway and thereby have an advantage starting the final climb. Without bonus seconds on the line the GC contenders don’t have to focus on the stage win but I think it will come back together and end with one of the favorites winning on Crans Montana.

Crans Montana is a frequently used climb in Tour de Suisse. Last time the race finished here, Mauricio Soler won. The Colombian climber crashed horribly on the following stage but luckily, he survived. The stage win on Crans Montana was the last in Soler's way too short career. Movistar will be eager to pay tribute to Soler on Crans Montana and in Rui Costa they have a strong contender for the stag win. Also, teammate Andrey Amador is a good outsider with a late attack.

The climb itself is 16.3 km long and has an average gradient of about 6.5 %. The last couple of kilometers are the steepest with parts of 8.5 % and 7.2 % towards the line. I think Movistar will try to control the race and together with GreenEdge I doubt they will let a break get too far away. My joker for the overall classification Cameron Meyer took a lot of times on his rivals in the opening time trial and I think it will be very difficult to rip the yellow jersey off his shoulders on this stage.

It won’t be easy to beat Movistar but I think Thibaut Pinot is one of the few riders who can. The French climber has his eyes fixed on the Tour but that doesn’t mean he don’t race to win in Tour de Suisse. The hard race suits him fine and despite this being a short stage, he final climb is right up his alley. Pinot did very well in the opening time trial and after a strong performance in Bayern-Rundfahrt, I think he will be fighting for the win on Crans Montana.

My two personal jokers for the stage win are Tanel Kangert and Damiano Caruso. Kangert was one of the big revelations in this year’s Giro d’Italia and he still seems to be in great shape. He turned out to be one of the best helpers for Nibali in the mountains and he showed to be very strong when he took 5^th place in GP Gippingen last Thursday. Astana have Brajkovic in the race as well but the Slovenian may need a day or two before his legs are used to racing again. I think Astana will try to set-up Kangert for the stage win and he might as well pull it off.

Damiano Caruso wasn’t planned to ride the Giro d’Italia this year but after Ivan Basso got injured, Caruso had to change his race schedule and take part. He was rather invisible the first part of the race but as he raced into shape he finished the Giro in a very strong way. Caruso now hopes to do well in the overall classification in Tour de Suisse and to take a stage win along the way. There are many strong riders on the start list but if Caruso can ride as he did on the hilly time trial in the Giro (finished 3^rd), he will be up there for the win, I think.

Favorites: Rui Costa & Thibaut Pinot

Jokers: Tanel Kangert & Damiano Caruso

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.