The first stage of Tour Down Under is a typical sprint stage. It’s only 135 km and that means we are in for another fast and furious finish. There is a few bumps on the profile, but only one categorized climb (Checker Hill Road, 4 km / 5% avg.) and from the top there’s still about 90 km to go.
The riders
will get to know the finish line as the cross it twice before it counts and
with the last kilometers on a straight, flat out road it will surely be a fight
between Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano to get their leadout-trains in order.
Argos-Shimano
seemed to have timed it perfectly in People’s Choice Classic but on the last
lap the team fell apart and Marcel Kittel was left alone without a chance to
battle against Lotto-Belisol. Argos-Shimano have always been focusing on making
the perfect leadout-train and I think they are very eager to make up for their
mistake in their first season on the World Tour.
That being
said it won’t be easy against Andre Greipel who’s computer showed a max speed
of 73,8 km/t towards the finishing line
in People’s Choice Classic. It’s clear that if Lotto-Belisol get the lead on
the last kilometer with Greg Henderson as the last man before Greipel, nobody
will be able to pass him. These days the leadout-trains are more important than
ever, keeping the speed extra high and even though guys like Andrea Guardini
and Arnaud Demare have an impressive kick I doubt they will be able to pass
Greipel with a perfect leadout.
With the
long straight out finish I can’t imagine Argos-Shimano or Lotto-Belisol not
taking the lead and if so the way is made for Kittel and Greipel. Still I do
believe Demare will have his saying too. He’s has been doing a little bit of
cyclo-cross before heading to Australia and FDJ really worked hard to put him in
a good position last Sunday. So despite being attacked by a koala,
I still think he’ll be the best pick if the two big favorites strike out.
Winnerpick:
Andre Greipel / Marcel Kittel
Joker:
Arnaud Demare
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