Vuelta a España: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

Joaquim ’Purito’ Rodriguez finally took his first stage win of this year’s Vuelta on stage 19. Katusha worked in front of the peloton all day long and with one kilometer to go, Purito dropped the rest of the favorites. Vincenzo Nibali couldn’t keep up with Horner on the final meters and Chris Horner is now leading the race with three seconds.

Before the Vuelta started, we could only hope for a fight this close and Angliru will now determine who’s going to win this bike race. Chris Horner has been the best climber so far and usually the best climber wins on Angliru. In the past, the big favorites have won here and I doubt that will change this time. The bonus seconds on the line can prove to be very important and the prestige alone of winning on Angliru should mean we won’t see the peloton let the early break get too far away.

It’s a short stage of only 142.2 km but it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. Even though the chances of a breakaway making it aren’t great, half the peloton will try to make it into that break anyway. It’s the last chance before Madrid to win a stage and strong teams like Movistar, Lampre and Euskaltel are still winless in this Vuelta. Except for the opening team time trial Astana hasn’t won anything either yet and without having to control the race, we may see them send a good climber up the road. If not to win the stage, then at least to help Nibali on the final climb.              

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before taking on Alto de l’Angliru and all three of them are very steep. The first one, Alto de la Cabruñana, is the easiest one. It comes after 40 km and has an average gradient of 6.6 %. From the top, there are only 30 km to Alto de Tenebredo starts. This climb is only 3.4 km long but it has an average gradient of over 10 %! The GC favorites won’t be dropped here but the steep gradients will hurt their legs before the final two climbs of the day.

Alto de l'Angliru. 12.2 km / avg. 10.2 %

With 26.6 km to go, it’s time to climb Alto del Cordal. This is a category 1 climb and the 5.3 km towards the top has an average gradient of 9.6 %. If Alejandro Valverde or Joaquim Purito are feeling exceptional well, we may see Movistar and Katusha set a high pace on Cordal in order to tire out their rivals. There won’t be many riders left in the peloton when reaching the top and those who are dropped won’t see the front of the peloton again today. After the fast decent, the riders start on Angliru right away. This climb is said to be the hardest one ever done in a bike race and its 12.2 km with an average of 10.2 % confirm that.

This is only the 6^th time a stage finishes on Angliru and looking at some of the past winners, it’s clear this is one for the pure climbers. Jimenez, Simoni, Heras and Contador were all best in the world when they won here. Juanjo Cobo was the last winner on Angliru (in 2011). That year the Vuelta also had a stage finish on Peña Cabarga. Last Thursday Chris Horner sat a new record on the climb. He was more than 40 seconds faster than Cobo was in 2011.

Naturally, Chris Horner is the big favorite to win this stage. However, Vincenzo Nibali has a point when he says the climb suits the Italian better than Horner. Angliru is all about keeping a steady rhythm, sitting on the bike. Horner is always standing in the pedals and should it rain, it won’t be easy for him to distance the others. It’s true that Horner is better than the rest on the steep gradients right now but Angliru is constantly steep and therefore it’s more important to keep a steady rhythm. Also, Horner has never climbed Angliru before. Nibali has.

Like in the Tour, Purito seems to be very strong after the last rest day. However, after his win on Alto de Naranco he also said that “this was his last chance”. He knows it will be extremely difficult to win on Angliru and he’s probably more focused on gaining time on Valverde than going for the stage win. However, this climb suits Alejandro Valverde very well. The Movistar leader knows how to keep a high speed and honestly, I don’t think Purito will be able to distance Valverde enough to make podium. Actually, I doubt he will distance Valverde at all. The only chance for Purito to take 3^rd place is if Nibali has a - very - bad day. In 2011, Liquigas sat a strong pace for Vincenzo Nibali in the bottom of Angliru but halfway to the top, Nibali couldn’t follow anymore and he ended up losing 2:37 min to Juanjo Cobo. I doubt it will happen again this time but if Radioshack, Movistar and Katusha work together and put pressure on Nibali already on Cordal, he may crack again on Angliru.

As mentioned, Movistar, Lampre and Euskaltel haven’t won a single stage in this year’s race and they will all be eager to change that fact today. Eros Capecchi and José Herrada are probably the two best cards Movistar can play in a breakaway. Capecchi was very good on Angliru in 2011 and it’s important to know this climb. I had Diego Ulissi down as my joker for stage 19 and he finished 2^nd after Purito. Ulissi seems to have timed his shape perfectly for the World Championships and if he gets into the break, he will be very difficult to beat.

A steep climb like Angliru is always good for the pure climbers and Euskaltel has a lot of them. Mikel Nieve and Igor Antón are both out of the GC and will have freedom to attack. In 2011, Antón put in a strong attack with 7 km to go and for a time, he seemed to be the winner. However, he couldn’t follow when Cobo made his move. Back then, Antón attacked from the peloton. He ended up losing 1:21 min but imagine what he can do with a gap of 3 minutes in the bottom of the climb. Igor Antón has won on Monte Zoncolan in the past (2011) - the Italian pendant to Angliru - and he’s always been best on the steepest gradients.

It would be a smart move by Astana to send a rider or two in the early breakaway. They don’t have to control the race anymore and they would be happy to see the bonus seconds taken out of the equation if Nibali can't follow Horner. Tanel Kangert and Paolo Tiralongo will most likely stay with Nibali. Kangert sits 11^th overall and Tiralongo never leaves Nibali’s side. Not even when the doctors advised him to do so when he was sick during the Giro. I think Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang may fancy their chances. Brajkovic was the first rider in the Red Jersey and he’s been looking strong, working for Nibali, ever since. Before the Vuelta started, Fuglsang said he came to support Nibali and prepare for the World Championships. So far, he’s been riding very well without going over his limits. In the beginning, Fuglsang was aiming for a stage win but he became locked after Nibali took the jersey early in the race. Now he has a chance, his last chance, and it would be a shame to waste it. At least to get a strong day of racing before Florence.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this final day in the mountains, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

I’ve pumping up Vasil Kiryienka’s chances of making it all the way from a breakaway the last couple of days and Thursday afternoon, he finally did. Kiryienka went solo with 45 km to go and managed to keep everybody behind him. Chris Horner showed he is still the strongest uphill when he climbed Peña Cabarga about 40 seconds faster than Juanjo Cobo did in 2011. Cobo won the Vuelta that year and right now, it seems like Horner will win this year’s edition.

Stage 19 is another one for a breakaway. The GC riders are focusing on Angliru and I doubt they want to use up their teams already. That being said, if Valverde or Purito wants to win a stage in this year’s Vuelta, this is probably their last chance. Astana and Vincenzo Nibali will be happy to see a breakaway take all the bonus seconds again this time. Nibali can’t follow Chris Horner on the steep gradients and even though the final climb isn’t very steep this time, I can’t see Nibali gain time on Horner in Oviedo.

The first 100 km of stage 19 take place next to the sea. The wind is coming from north-northeast and if it’s strong again, we might see a team like Saxo-Tinkoff trying to split up the peloton again. However, they are still about 80 km to go - and six climbs - so I doubt it will happen. However, DS Fabrizio Guidi says the team is looking to climb the GC and that means taking time on Purito and Valverde.

Usually the big favorites want to go for the stage win on the mythical Angliru climb and that means this is the last day for a breakaway to make it. Therefore, we can expect another very fast with half of peloton trying to get away. For once Movistar missed the breakaway on stage 18 and I’m sure they will be eager to get at least one rider up front this time. It’s true the final climb suits Alejandro Valverde very well but I doubt Movistar can control the race all by themselves. They tried on stage 18 and look what happened.

The final 5 km of stage 19 on Alto de Naranco.

The final 40 km of stage 19 are the hardest. There are three categorized climbs on the menu but actually, the intermediate sprint is also placed on top of a hill with an average of nearly 5 %. Typical for the Vuelta. The penultimate climb of the day, Alto de la Manzaneda, is the steepest one. It’s only 3.6 km long but has an average gradient of 6.2 %.

After entering Oviedo the final 5.7 km are uphill towards the finishing line. Alto del Naranco has average gradient of just 4.2 % but there are a steep kilometer of nearly 10 % with 3 km to go. The final two kilometers have an average gradient of 6.5 % and take place in headwind. The last 300 meters are straight out with a tailwind and should a couple of riders arrive together, it may be an idea to try an early sprint out of the final corner.

If the peloton catches the breakaway, Alejando Valverde is the big favorite but the chances of that aren’t very good. I think the GC riders will be saving a little energy for Angliru and that means we - once again - should look to riders down out of the general classification.

First rider on my list is Bauke Mollema. He didn’t have the legs to go for the GC after the Tour but he stayed in the race aiming for a stage win. That win came on stage 17 when he took the peloton by surprise with a late attack. Mollema is targeting the World Championships in Florence later this month and he’s coming out of this Vuelta in great shape. The final climb suits Mollema perfectly and unlike many other, the Belkin captain doesn’t need to solo away in order to win. Bauke Mollema is very fast on the line and it’s probably only Valverde and Dani Moreno could can outsprint him on a finish like this one.

Another strong rider right now is Diego Ulissi. I’ve been naming him a couple of times already as a good candidate for an early breakaway but so far, Ulissi hasn’t been able to make it. However, the young Italian is climbing very well these days and this stage really suits him. He tried a late attack the other day but never really got away. This is Diego Ulissi’s last chance for a stage win and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to make that final breakaway. Lampre also has Michele Scarponi for a stage like this one together; Ulissi and Scarponi are a very dangerous duo for stage 19.

Team NetApp Endura has been doing extremely well so far in this Vuelta. Leo König is still sitting 8^th in the overall classification and Bartosz Huzarski was close to take the team’s second stage win the last time Warren Barguil won. König’s focus will be on Angliru but I think Huzarski has this stage marked in his road book. The strong Pole knows how to get into the right breakaways and he seems to be climbing very well right now. Furthermore, Huzarski is actually fast in an uphill sprint too. Don’t forget he took second place after Purito on stage 10 in the Giro last year.

For other good candidates looks to riders like; Warren Barguil, Rigoberto Uran, José Herrada, Ivan Santaromita, Rafa Valls, Andre Cardoso, Oliver Zaugg and the strong Euskaltel trio Igor Antón, Mikel Nieve and Mikel Landa. Euskaltel is aiming big at the team classification and we expect at least one orange rider in the breakaway.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

Team Saxo-Tinkoff did it again. They took the peloton by surprise in the crosswind and managed to distance Domenico Pozzovivo by 1:30 min. Nicolas Roche is therefore now back in Top5 - his big goal - and it will be interesting to see what Pozzovivo can do to take back the time he lost.

Stage 18 provides the first opportunity to change the overall classification. The 186.5 km include no less than five categorized climbs and the last one, Peña Cabarga, is one of the toughest in this year’s Vuelta a España. The day starts in Burgos where the riders head north. A light headwind will accompany the peloton for most of the day and we can expect another hard day in the saddle.

The breakaway has a good chance of making it all the way again and it will be a furious fight to get into that final break. There are no real climbs the first 75 km it won’t be a surprise if the break doesn’t get away for good until they hit the first climb. Alto de Bocos is only 3 km long but its average gradient of 6.6 % will show who has the legs to be in front today.

The following three climbs come right after each other and the penultimate one, Alto del Caracol, has its top just 40 km from the finishing line. The run-in towards the final climb is up and down at all the time and nobody will arrive at the bottom of Peña Cabarga with fresh legs. There is an intermediate sprint in Solares with just 10 km to go and in case the break is caught, we may see the GC riders sprint for the three bonus seconds.

Peña Cabarga. 5.9 km / avg. 9.2 %

As the riders gets close to the final ascent, the roads turns 180° which means the peloton will start the last climb with a light tailwind. Peña Cabarga is 5.9 km long and has an average gradient of 9.2 %. There are even parts of over 20 % on the last kilometer. In 2011, Chris Froome took his first GrandTour stage win, when he outsprinted Juanjo Cobo on the final meters. Back then, Cobo attack with 1 km to go and at this point, they were still 10 riders left in front group. This time we may see attacks a bit earlier. Valverde and Purito can’t wait to the last kilometer and the TV-viewers can enjoy a great fight this Thursday afternoon. As Chris Horner says:  “Grab your beer and get ready for the show!”

Chris Horner still seems to be the strongest rider uphill in this race and it’s difficult to imagine why it would change now. Astana will be happy if a breakaway makes it and thereby takes the bonus seconds on the line. Vincenzo Nibali didn’t look too good the other day, however I’m sure the Italian is only getting better. It won’t be easy to drop him on the steep percentages. Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang will all be there to support Nibali in the final and probably Paolo Tiralongo as well. Chris Horner only has Robert Kiserlovski left to help but then again, the Croatian champion is probably among the best climbers in the race right now. Kiserlovski can’t afford to have a bad day though - in that case, Horner will be completely isolated.

It will be very interesting to see how Movistar will ride this stage. They haven’t won a single stage yet and they must be eager to finally cross the line first. Before the stage to Formigal, Alejandro Valverde seemed happy just to take 3^rd place overall but not anymore. Valverde now eyes the Red Jersey and he says he won’t be afraid of attacking from a far - and to risk losing everything - if he sees an opening. However, it’s important to remember that Valverde doesn’t know the Peña Cabarga ascent. He decided to rest after the Tour instead of going to check out the climb.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is probably on the same page in the tactic book as Valverde. He showed he is now strong enough to drop the other GC riders uphill and on the steep percentages on Peña Cabarga, Purito has to try again. I would imagine Dani Moreno to set a high pace in the beginning of the climb in order for Purito to attack when gradients get over 10 %. Purito already knows what it takes to win on Peña Cabarga. He won here in 2010 when he distanced Nibali with 20 seconds after a late attack with just 800 meters to go. 

Domenico Pozzovivo lost his 5^th place overall in the crosswind on stage 17 and he will be eager to take it back from Nicolas Roche. The steep climbs suits Pozzovivo perfectly and with only 53 kg to carry, he should be able to distance Roche in the final. He probably won’t take back all the time he lost in the wind but he will get closer.

As stated, the breakaway has a good chance of making it again. It would suit Astana perfectly if the bonus seconds weren’t up for grabs and Movistar and Katusha may be too focused on the battle for the GC to control the peloton. However, if Valverde and Purito wants a stage win from this year’s Vuelta this is an opportunity they can’t afford to miss. Anyway, in case a break makes it all the way, let’s take a look at some of the best candidates.

First up is Michele Scarponi. The Italian is very strong right now and has been good at hitting the right breaks. Scarponi can’t drop the best riders uphill anymore but he showed the other day, that he is in great shape. He finished second after Alexandre Geniez and was one of the few riders able to take back time on the Frenchman on the last climb. Why he let him get away in first place is a mystery. One thing talking against Scarponi is that he’s only 12:08 min after Vincenzo Nibali. At this point in the race, the team start to protect their Top10 places and they may not let Scarponi get too much of a gap.

Euskaltel are trying hard to get a stage win in their last Vuelta and I’m sure they will do whatever they can in order to put a strong climber in the early breakaway. Igor Antón and Mikel Nieve are not big threats in the GC and especially Antón seems to be doing pretty well right now. Another Spanish climber who’s getting better and better is David Arroyo. He came to race in great shape but crashed in one of the first stages. Slowly Arroyo is getting back at a high level and he’s now less than a minute from breaking into Top10 overall. The final climb suits Arroyo just fine but he won’t be able to drop the other GC riders. If he wants to give Caja Rural a stage win, he needs to attack from a far. Like Scarponi, it won’t be easy to get a big gap but you never know this late in the race.

For other good candidates look to riders like Amets Txurruka, Nicolas Edet, Georg Preidler, Ivan Santaromita, Diego Ulissi, Rafal Majka, Dario Cataldo and Yoann Bagot. Bagot is right now 22^nd in the overall classification but he needs four minutes to make into Top20. So far, the French riders have been very good in this Vuelta and I can’t see why Warren Barguil shouldn’t be able to make a hat-trick. He’s obviously in outstanding shape right now and despite his inexperience Barguil really knows how to hit the right breakaway!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 18, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a stage for the sprinters - or so it seems. In fact, the final 10 km are very demanding with a steep hill and a tricky descent. More on the later.

The day starts in Calahorra and finish in Burgos after 189 km in the saddle. Without being completely flat, this isn’t a very hilly stage either. The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s Vuelta and their teams will be eager to control the race. The first 100 km take place in head- and crosswind and we shouldn’t see a breakaway get too much of a gap.  After 109.8 km it’s time for the first categorized climb of the day, Alto de Pradilla. It’s a category 3 climb and the 6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.4 %.

The next climb, Alto de Valmala, starts after 133.5 km and from its top there are 50 km to the finishing line. The last intermediate sprint comes with 36 km to go and from here, the riders will be able to enjoy a strong tailwind towards Burgos. On paper, the final 10 km don’t look very tough but if you haven’t done your homework, you will be in for a big surprise!

With about 10 km to go, the riders turn right - away from the big road - up the little Calle Eras de San Francisco. The following 1.2 km are uphill and especially the first part is steep. While the riders won’t be able to admire it, the TV-viewers will have a beautiful view over Burgos on the way towards the top of the hill. From here, it’s downhill for about 450 meter before the road kicks up again for 200 meters. The following 800 meters downhill are very technical and on narrow roads. The peloton will be stretch out significantly on this part, and it’s doubtful all the sprinters will make it back to the front in time.

The final 5 km are straight out with a few up and down parts. There is now cross- and headwind towards the line and it won’t be easy for a lonely rider to keep the peloton behind him. However, if the sprinters aren’t back in the peloton, it may be very difficult organizing the chase.

The final 14 km of stage 17. Many things to pay attention to!
Click for larger view.

We haven’t seen a regular mass sprint since Michael Matthews won Stage 5 and the chances are good that we won’t get one this time either. Usually Philippe Gilbert, Luis León Sanchez and Simon Gerrans would be excellent winner candidates for a finish like this one. However, they are all out of the race and instead we should probably look to opportunistic riders like Juan Antonio Flecha, Fabian Cancellara, Luca Paolini and Rinaldo Nocentini for a late attack on the hill.

Especially Fabian Cancellara is extremely strong right now and if he gets away on the descent, I doubt the peloton will see him again until after they cross the finishing line. The same goes for a rider like Samuel Sanchez. He’s getting better and better but he still isn’t able to beat the best climbers uphill. Sanchez knows how to attack on the final kilometers and keep the peloton behind him and he’s very eager to give Euskaltel their first stage win in the their last Vuelta a España.

In case it all gets back together in time for the final sprint, it should come down to a battle between Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews. In theory, any of them should have problems on the 1.2 km climb but it all depends on how fast the peloton is going. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another very good candidate for the stage win. He came close when Gilbert won and he’s been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway the last couple of days. The strong Norwegian is obviously in great shape and I would be surprised not to see him fight for the win in Burgos.

If you are looking for a super joker, look to Anthony Roux. He’s very fast on the line, especially in a reduced peloton, and he’s been doing very well the last two days in the Pyrenees. He may not be able to beat the big sprinters in a regular bunch sprint but with a finish like this one, he should be in the mix.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 17, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

As expected, a break made it all the way on stage 15. Alexandre Geniez made sure the French spectators could celebrate the Vuelta visiting when he soloed away with 25 km to go. No changes in the overall classification as the first five riders stayed together all the time. Only Purito seemed to have energy to keep on trying to attack.

Monday’s stage is another hard day in the Pyrenees but not nearly as hard the last two days. The stage is only 146 km long and this time and it seems like the rain is now gone and the sun is back. Everybody is tired and it won’t be a surprise if an early breakaway manages to stay away again.

The first 20 km takes place in tailwind and this means we are in for another very fast start. Most likely, we will see a break getting away on Puerto de la Foradada. It’s only a category 3 climb but the 5.9 km towards the top still have an average gradient of 5.9 %. There are a lot of tired legs in the peloton after the last two days and it will be interesting who has something left in the tank.From the top of Puerto de la Foradada, the riders will have 60 km to cover in a light crosswind before the they start on the next climb. Puerto de Cotéfablo is 12.5 km long and has an average gradient of 4 %. It’s not a very steep climb but after the last two days, it won’t be a walk in the park either.

At this point on the stage, the wind has now changed and what started out as a tailwind is now a headwind. This means the final 30 km will be extremely hard for a breakaway and it's important to have saved something for the final climb. The ascent up to Aramón Formigal is 15.8 km long and has an average gradient of only 4 %. However, most of the first 6 km are either flat or downhill. The road start to kick up with 10 km to go and the following 3.5 km are steep with parts of nearly 10 %. The climbs then evens out for about 4 km before it gets steep again. The final 3.5 km have an average gradient of 7 % and this is where you can make the difference.

Aramón Formigal. 15.8 km / avg. 4 %. Last 3 km avg. 7 %.

In my preview for stage 15 I mentioned riders like Vasil Kiryienka, Mikel Landa and Diego Ulissi as good breakaway candidates. Landa made it into the break but didn’t have the strength to stay with Geniez. Kiryienka and Ulissi stayed in the peloton and once again, I’d like to point to those two as candidates for a break. I will add to that list riders like Egoi Martinez, Bauke Mollema, Marcos Garcia, Georg Preidler and Chris Anker Sørensen.

The last two names for the (long) list of good candidates are Amets Txurruka and Rigoberto Uran. Txurruka was very active in the beginning of stage 15 and he started several breakaways. However, Txurruka couldn’t cover every move and in the end the big break went away without him (but with two other Caja Rural riders). Rigoberto Uran too was very active on stage 15. He stayed with the favorites for most of the time and he even tried to get away a couple of times. Uran is obviously feeling better and being nearly 25 minutes after Vincenzo Nibali, he won’t be the first rider the peloton start chasing down.

Among the favorites, there are no doubts that Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner are the two strongest riders uphill right now. Actually, it’s probably Horner’s teammate Robert Kiserlovski who’s best climber at the moment. The Croatian champion is a very important help for Horner these days! The last two days have been tough on the riders and once again, it will be interesting to see how 41 years old Chris Horner will recover. Naturally, he can’t recover as fast as the younger riders but so far he doesn’t seem to have any problems at all.

Alejandro Valverde and especially Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez tried to attack on stage 15 but Nibali and Horner never let them get more than a few meters. The final climb is not very steep this time and it will be very difficult for the two Spaniards to get away. Valverde seems to be satisfied with third place overall and he’s probably paying more attention to Purito in 4^th place than to Horner in 2^nd place. Valverde knows he can outsprint Purito in the end Purito knows it too. The final three kilometers on Formigal are the steepest and I expect Purito to put in a couple of strong attacks in the hairpin corners trying to drop Valverde. It won’t be easy but it seems like Purito is very eager to make up for the lost time.

The final 3 km of stage 16. Avg. of 7 %.

Domenico Pozzovivo is only six seconds in front of Nicolas Roche in 5^th place but I don’t think he will have problems keeping the Irishman behind him. Pozzovivo has been very focused on not wasting any energy too early in the race. The Italian climber came to the race aiming for Top5 overall and he’s been saving energy for the last week. Roche has already put in numerous attacks and hadn’t he had a one minute gap to the favorites on the last climb on stage 15, he probably would have lost time again.

Samuel Sanchez is right now the best Euskaltel rider in the mountains and he too seems to be getting better and better every day. Sanchez can’t follow the top favorites when it gets steep but he’s clever and knows how to keep a good pace. The final climb on stage 16 has a couple of flat parts and I won’t surprise me to see Sanchez attack on the flat parts to get a good gap before the road kicks up again. He may even be able to win this stage like that if the peloton keeps the breakaway within striking distance.

The Vuelta pays homage to Fernando Escartín with this stage. The former Kelme captain never managed to win Vuelta a España but he was among the best climbers the country has ever produced.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 16, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Amets Txurruka to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

Daniele Ratto took a beautiful stage win in the rain when he soloed away to win on Collada de la Gallina. Belkin deserves to be mentioned as well though. The Dutch team put in play a brilliant plan but unfortunately, Luis León Sanchez crashed on the long descent and had to quit the race. So did Ivan Basso and since Purito and Valverde are not on top of their game, this Vuelta is down to the battle between Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner.

Stage 14 was a horrible day in the saddle for the riders and it won’t get any better this Sunday. In fact, it only gets worse as the stage is almost 100 km longer. The weather stays the same and there aren’t any less climbs on the menu. On paper, this is another good stage for a breakaway. The favorites will focus on each other and since Nibali and Horner are the strongest uphill, we probably won’t see Katusha and Movistar go hard for the stage win. At least not from the very beginning.

The riders start climbing after just 7 km of the stage when Puerto del Cantó starts. The 24.4 km towards the top have an average gradient of 4.2 %. It’s steepest in the beginning and we can expect a lot of attacks right from the start. From the top of Puerto del Cantó, there are still 50 km until the next climb starts and in tailwind, the breakaway has time to get a good gap.

The final 16.7 km of stage 15 up to Peyragudes.

After 81 km it’s time for Puerto de la Bonaigua. It’s another long climb - 20 km - and with an average gradient of 5,5 %, there won’t be many riders left in the peloton at the top. The descent is almost 65 km long and it’s extremely important to be wearing enough clothes. It will be a very cold day and if you forget to eat and stay warm, you probably won’t be able to cope with the tough final in France.

The last 50 km are the same as when Alejandro Valverde won on Peyragudes in the Tour de France last year. First Col du Port de Balés, then Col de Peyresourde and after a short descent it’s time for the final 4 uphill kilometers towards the finishing line. I think a breakaway will make it all the way again, especially with the tough start of the stage in the mind. There are still many hard climbs left in this Vuelta and the GC riders have to save as much energy as possible in this horrible weather.

I had big expectations for Euskaltel’s Mikel Landa heading into to this Vuelta. Landa did very well in Burgos and seemed to be in great shape. However, he hasn’t shown much of his qualities, until this Saturday. On the hardest stage of the race so far, Mikel Landa stayed with the favorites almost all the time and finished in 9^th place. Euskaltel tried a big play with three riders (Urtasun, Martinez & Antón) attacking but they didn’t manage to get away. It really seems like the team has woken up after the good news of Fernando Alonso saving the team. Mikel Landa is more than one hour after Nibali in the GC and he’s not a rider they will give many thoughts should he attack. It shows a lot of strength to do as well as Landa did on Stage 14 and if he can recover well enough, I think he will try to give Euskaltel their first stage win in their last Vuelta España - as we have known them for 20 years.

Another rider who did very well on Saturday’s tough stage is Vasil Kiryienka. With both of his captains out of the GC, Kiryienka can now take his own chance and he tried a couple of times on stage 14. He didn’t manage to get away but when they were only 10 riders left in front, Vasil Kiryienka was still there. He faded at bit in the end and finished 26^th but I’m sure his sensations were good. The strong Belarusian knows how to get into the winning breakaways and finish it off in the big mountains.

Weather forecast for stage 15. Click for larger view.

I also think Diego Ulissi has a good chance on this stage. The young Italian won the first mountain stage in Tour of Poland last month, also in rainy conditions. Ulissi is very strong on the climbs, not afraid of attacking and he packs a very good sprint as well. The final kilometer of stage 15 is flat and should it happen a few riders arrive together, it will be difficult to beat Diego Ulissi.

In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali already showed he doesn’t mind the harsh weather. He is right now the strongest rider in the race and I doubt he will let go of the Red Jersey anymore. Of course, everybody can have an off day and it’s important to recover well after Saturday’s struggle. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how soon-to-be 42 years old Chris Horner will cope with this long and difficult stage. So far he hasn’t shown any weaknesses uphill and with Robert Kiserlovski in outstanding shape, I guess the other GC riders just can’t drop him.

Alejandro Valverde said he had the worst day of his life on bike in Andorra. He was cold on the descents and it wasn’t until they started climbing he was able to get warm and find his rhythm. However, when he started to climb he was fast. Very fast! He overtook one rider after the other to finish 6^th on the stage. Valverde knows the final on this stage climbs very well and if he can cope with the bad weather and stay in front, he has a very good chance of repeating his stage win from last year.

Katusha wanted to set up Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez near his home in Andorra but Purito simply couldn’t follow the attacks from Horner and Nibali. He decided to keep his own pace and minimize his losses and now the Spanish climber is 2:57 min after Nibali in the overall classification. He has 1:05 min up to Valverde in third place and I think it will be very difficult for Purito to make the overall podium this year. Of course, anything can still happen on these stages but Purito needs to find stronger legs if he wants to distance his rivals uphill.

If you are looking for other interesting riders to make the early breakaway, look to guys like; Chris Anker Sørensen, Andre Cardoso, Amets Txurruka, Javi Moreno, Rafa Valls and Ivan Santaromita. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 15, Laura picks Mikel Nieve to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

The breakaway made it all the way Friday on stage 13. Unfortunately, this unlucky combination took out Beñat Intxausti. The Basque Movistar rider managed to get into the winning break on the day the race started in the hometown of his late his teammate Xavi Tondo. It would have been a beautiful story had Intxausti won the stage but he never got the chance. Instead, Warren Barguil took the biggest win of his young career after an impressive late attack. Vincenzo Nibali still leads the race overall and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the Red Jersey after stage 14.

The Vuelta enters Andorra this Saturday and that means it’s time to start climbing. However, the first 40 km are downhill and we can expect another fast start. On paper, a breakaway could make it again but this is a short and extremely hard stage and the favorites will be eager to test each other.

Port de Envalira is the highest point of this year’s race, the so-called Cima Alberto Fernández. The 26.7 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.2 % and start after 60 km. There are steep parts of 15 % near the top and we can expect a very reduced peloton already at this early point of the stage. If you have a bad day today, you will end up losing a of time and with many strong teams, I doubt the pace won’t be high on Port de Envalira.

The following two climbs, Coll de Ordino and Alto de la Comella, both have an average gradient of about 5 % with steep parts near the top. They will tire out the peloton but they won’t be decisive. After 148.5 km in the saddle, the riders arrive to the bottom of the final struggle of the day. Collada de la Gallina is 7.2 km long and has an average gradient of 8 %. It was on this climb that Alberto Contador was caught on the final meters last year. In case you don’t remember the stage you can watch it below:

In 2010, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez did everything he could to wear the Red Jersey when the Vuelta entered Catalunya. He wanted to show off the jersey on home soil and he managed to do it. Now we are in Andorra and once again, Purito is home. Confused? Don’t be. Purito is now living in Andorra and he knows this climb better than anyone does. He wanted to win here last year but after closing the gap to Contador, Valverde came around him on the final meters. This year, Purito is out for revenge. On Sunday the 8^th, it’s the national holiday in Andorra and according to Purito; “it would be the bomb to win here the day before the national holiday. Especially after what happened last year”. A breakaway has good chances of making it all the way but I think Katusha will be eager to control the race. Purito is 2:33 min after Nibali in the overall classification and he knows he has to attack. He can’t just wait to the final kilometer and take the bonus seconds.

Purito’s teammate Dani Moreno had a brilliant day on Collada de la Gallina last year where he constantly stayed next to Purito. Moreno is now 3:56 behind in the GC and there is no doubt that he will be acting as super domestique for Purito again this Saturday. On stage 12, Moreno went down the same place where Intxausti crashed but luckily he didn’t hurt himself too much.

Chris Horner has been the best rider on the climbs so far in the race. The American veteran easily dropped the other GC riders on the last mountain top finish and if he shows the same strength, he will be difficult to beat. Personally, I doubt Horner will be able to keep his high level for the rest of the race but then again, it wouldn’t be first time he surprised everybody in this Vuelta…

It will be interesting to see how Astana will ride this stage. Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in control and with his late attack the other day; he showed he’s very strong right now. Jakob Fuglsang will be an important help for Nibali when they are only 10 riders left in front. It’s very difficult to attack and keep a gap when the Danish climber sets the pace. Just ask Pozzovivo.

Collada de la Gallina. 7.2 km / avg. 8 %

Collada de la Gallina is a very tough climb but I doubt we will see huge times differences between the big favorites. They all seem to be very equal. Last year Alejandro Valverde attacked from the peloton with three kilometers to go but later on, he had problems following the strong accelerations of Contador and Froome. Valverde is only 46 seconds after Nibali and knowing there are still many climbs left in this Vuelta, he may be fine just sticking to the strong Italian and then beat him on the line.

Nicolas Roche is the big joker. He’s in the shape of his life but he got dropped several times on Alto de Hazallanas. Every time he managed to fight his way back but how long can he continue to do that? On stage 13, he looked very strong when he followed Katusha’s move on Rat Penat but it’s uncertain how he will cope with the hard climbs in Andorra. Saxo-Tinkoff also has Rafal Majka in Top10 overall and the Polish climber will be a very important helper for Roche.

A third Saxo-Tinkoff rider I think we need to keep an eye on for this stage is Roman Kreuziger. He finished 5^th overall in the Tour de France this summer but didn’t want to aim at the GC in the Vuelta. Instead, Kreuziger is focusing on the World Championship in three weeks’ time. Originally, the plan was to aim for a stage win but with Roche near the Red Jersey, Kreuziger may have to stay in the peloton and help his Irish teammate. The Czech Amstel Gold Race winner did a great time trial the other day and I think Kreuziger will be up there near the front to help Roche on Collada de la Gallina.

The weather forecast shows clouds and possible thunderstorms for tomorrow’s stage. The complete opposite of what we have seen the first part of the Vuelta. In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali showed that not even a snowstorm could hold him back on the climbs and he won’t be suffering in the bad weather. One that may do is Domenico Pozzovivo. He surprised many with his third place in the time trial and so far, he’s been looking very strong uphill. However, Pozzovivo doesn’t like the cold weather and we may see the tiny Italian fade a bit in the cold temperatures.

Thibaut Pinot has been among the best riders uphill the last week but he’s not feeling 100 % at the moment. The French climber is not comfortable on the descents and with three of them before the final climb; he may lose ground. Especially if weather is bad. Ivan Basso is no champion on the descents either but when he’s first in the front group, he doesn’t let go. The many climbs are good for a diesel motor like Basso and even though he can’t follow the strong attacks of Horner or Purito he knows how to keep his pace and come back to the front. Time after time.

In case a breakaway ends up making it all the way, look out for riders like:

Chris Anker Sørensen - Feeling better and better every day and is looking to win a stage from a break.

Sergio Henao - Out of the GC and hopes to save his Vuelta with a stage win.

Diego Ulissi - Strong and very eager to attack.

Igor Antón - 7^th Collada de la Gallina last year and already out of the GC.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 14, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv