Vuelta a España: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

Team Saxo-Tinkoff did it again. They took the peloton by surprise in the crosswind and managed to distance Domenico Pozzovivo by 1:30 min. Nicolas Roche is therefore now back in Top5 - his big goal - and it will be interesting to see what Pozzovivo can do to take back the time he lost.

Stage 18 provides the first opportunity to change the overall classification. The 186.5 km include no less than five categorized climbs and the last one, Peña Cabarga, is one of the toughest in this year’s Vuelta a España. The day starts in Burgos where the riders head north. A light headwind will accompany the peloton for most of the day and we can expect another hard day in the saddle.

The breakaway has a good chance of making it all the way again and it will be a furious fight to get into that final break. There are no real climbs the first 75 km it won’t be a surprise if the break doesn’t get away for good until they hit the first climb. Alto de Bocos is only 3 km long but its average gradient of 6.6 % will show who has the legs to be in front today.

The following three climbs come right after each other and the penultimate one, Alto del Caracol, has its top just 40 km from the finishing line. The run-in towards the final climb is up and down at all the time and nobody will arrive at the bottom of Peña Cabarga with fresh legs. There is an intermediate sprint in Solares with just 10 km to go and in case the break is caught, we may see the GC riders sprint for the three bonus seconds.

Peña Cabarga. 5.9 km / avg. 9.2 %

As the riders gets close to the final ascent, the roads turns 180° which means the peloton will start the last climb with a light tailwind. Peña Cabarga is 5.9 km long and has an average gradient of 9.2 %. There are even parts of over 20 % on the last kilometer. In 2011, Chris Froome took his first GrandTour stage win, when he outsprinted Juanjo Cobo on the final meters. Back then, Cobo attack with 1 km to go and at this point, they were still 10 riders left in front group. This time we may see attacks a bit earlier. Valverde and Purito can’t wait to the last kilometer and the TV-viewers can enjoy a great fight this Thursday afternoon. As Chris Horner says:  “Grab your beer and get ready for the show!”

Chris Horner still seems to be the strongest rider uphill in this race and it’s difficult to imagine why it would change now. Astana will be happy if a breakaway makes it and thereby takes the bonus seconds on the line. Vincenzo Nibali didn’t look too good the other day, however I’m sure the Italian is only getting better. It won’t be easy to drop him on the steep percentages. Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang will all be there to support Nibali in the final and probably Paolo Tiralongo as well. Chris Horner only has Robert Kiserlovski left to help but then again, the Croatian champion is probably among the best climbers in the race right now. Kiserlovski can’t afford to have a bad day though - in that case, Horner will be completely isolated.

It will be very interesting to see how Movistar will ride this stage. They haven’t won a single stage yet and they must be eager to finally cross the line first. Before the stage to Formigal, Alejandro Valverde seemed happy just to take 3^rd place overall but not anymore. Valverde now eyes the Red Jersey and he says he won’t be afraid of attacking from a far - and to risk losing everything - if he sees an opening. However, it’s important to remember that Valverde doesn’t know the Peña Cabarga ascent. He decided to rest after the Tour instead of going to check out the climb.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is probably on the same page in the tactic book as Valverde. He showed he is now strong enough to drop the other GC riders uphill and on the steep percentages on Peña Cabarga, Purito has to try again. I would imagine Dani Moreno to set a high pace in the beginning of the climb in order for Purito to attack when gradients get over 10 %. Purito already knows what it takes to win on Peña Cabarga. He won here in 2010 when he distanced Nibali with 20 seconds after a late attack with just 800 meters to go. 

Domenico Pozzovivo lost his 5^th place overall in the crosswind on stage 17 and he will be eager to take it back from Nicolas Roche. The steep climbs suits Pozzovivo perfectly and with only 53 kg to carry, he should be able to distance Roche in the final. He probably won’t take back all the time he lost in the wind but he will get closer.

As stated, the breakaway has a good chance of making it again. It would suit Astana perfectly if the bonus seconds weren’t up for grabs and Movistar and Katusha may be too focused on the battle for the GC to control the peloton. However, if Valverde and Purito wants a stage win from this year’s Vuelta this is an opportunity they can’t afford to miss. Anyway, in case a break makes it all the way, let’s take a look at some of the best candidates.

First up is Michele Scarponi. The Italian is very strong right now and has been good at hitting the right breaks. Scarponi can’t drop the best riders uphill anymore but he showed the other day, that he is in great shape. He finished second after Alexandre Geniez and was one of the few riders able to take back time on the Frenchman on the last climb. Why he let him get away in first place is a mystery. One thing talking against Scarponi is that he’s only 12:08 min after Vincenzo Nibali. At this point in the race, the team start to protect their Top10 places and they may not let Scarponi get too much of a gap.

Euskaltel are trying hard to get a stage win in their last Vuelta and I’m sure they will do whatever they can in order to put a strong climber in the early breakaway. Igor Antón and Mikel Nieve are not big threats in the GC and especially Antón seems to be doing pretty well right now. Another Spanish climber who’s getting better and better is David Arroyo. He came to race in great shape but crashed in one of the first stages. Slowly Arroyo is getting back at a high level and he’s now less than a minute from breaking into Top10 overall. The final climb suits Arroyo just fine but he won’t be able to drop the other GC riders. If he wants to give Caja Rural a stage win, he needs to attack from a far. Like Scarponi, it won’t be easy to get a big gap but you never know this late in the race.

For other good candidates look to riders like Amets Txurruka, Nicolas Edet, Georg Preidler, Ivan Santaromita, Diego Ulissi, Rafal Majka, Dario Cataldo and Yoann Bagot. Bagot is right now 22^nd in the overall classification but he needs four minutes to make into Top20. So far, the French riders have been very good in this Vuelta and I can’t see why Warren Barguil shouldn’t be able to make a hat-trick. He’s obviously in outstanding shape right now and despite his inexperience Barguil really knows how to hit the right breakaway!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 18, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a stage for the sprinters - or so it seems. In fact, the final 10 km are very demanding with a steep hill and a tricky descent. More on the later.

The day starts in Calahorra and finish in Burgos after 189 km in the saddle. Without being completely flat, this isn’t a very hilly stage either. The sprinters haven’t had many chances in this year’s Vuelta and their teams will be eager to control the race. The first 100 km take place in head- and crosswind and we shouldn’t see a breakaway get too much of a gap.  After 109.8 km it’s time for the first categorized climb of the day, Alto de Pradilla. It’s a category 3 climb and the 6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.4 %.

The next climb, Alto de Valmala, starts after 133.5 km and from its top there are 50 km to the finishing line. The last intermediate sprint comes with 36 km to go and from here, the riders will be able to enjoy a strong tailwind towards Burgos. On paper, the final 10 km don’t look very tough but if you haven’t done your homework, you will be in for a big surprise!

With about 10 km to go, the riders turn right - away from the big road - up the little Calle Eras de San Francisco. The following 1.2 km are uphill and especially the first part is steep. While the riders won’t be able to admire it, the TV-viewers will have a beautiful view over Burgos on the way towards the top of the hill. From here, it’s downhill for about 450 meter before the road kicks up again for 200 meters. The following 800 meters downhill are very technical and on narrow roads. The peloton will be stretch out significantly on this part, and it’s doubtful all the sprinters will make it back to the front in time.

The final 5 km are straight out with a few up and down parts. There is now cross- and headwind towards the line and it won’t be easy for a lonely rider to keep the peloton behind him. However, if the sprinters aren’t back in the peloton, it may be very difficult organizing the chase.

The final 14 km of stage 17. Many things to pay attention to!
Click for larger view.

We haven’t seen a regular mass sprint since Michael Matthews won Stage 5 and the chances are good that we won’t get one this time either. Usually Philippe Gilbert, Luis León Sanchez and Simon Gerrans would be excellent winner candidates for a finish like this one. However, they are all out of the race and instead we should probably look to opportunistic riders like Juan Antonio Flecha, Fabian Cancellara, Luca Paolini and Rinaldo Nocentini for a late attack on the hill.

Especially Fabian Cancellara is extremely strong right now and if he gets away on the descent, I doubt the peloton will see him again until after they cross the finishing line. The same goes for a rider like Samuel Sanchez. He’s getting better and better but he still isn’t able to beat the best climbers uphill. Sanchez knows how to attack on the final kilometers and keep the peloton behind him and he’s very eager to give Euskaltel their first stage win in the their last Vuelta a España.

In case it all gets back together in time for the final sprint, it should come down to a battle between Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews. In theory, any of them should have problems on the 1.2 km climb but it all depends on how fast the peloton is going. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another very good candidate for the stage win. He came close when Gilbert won and he’s been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway the last couple of days. The strong Norwegian is obviously in great shape and I would be surprised not to see him fight for the win in Burgos.

If you are looking for a super joker, look to Anthony Roux. He’s very fast on the line, especially in a reduced peloton, and he’s been doing very well the last two days in the Pyrenees. He may not be able to beat the big sprinters in a regular bunch sprint but with a finish like this one, he should be in the mix.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 17, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

As expected, a break made it all the way on stage 15. Alexandre Geniez made sure the French spectators could celebrate the Vuelta visiting when he soloed away with 25 km to go. No changes in the overall classification as the first five riders stayed together all the time. Only Purito seemed to have energy to keep on trying to attack.

Monday’s stage is another hard day in the Pyrenees but not nearly as hard the last two days. The stage is only 146 km long and this time and it seems like the rain is now gone and the sun is back. Everybody is tired and it won’t be a surprise if an early breakaway manages to stay away again.

The first 20 km takes place in tailwind and this means we are in for another very fast start. Most likely, we will see a break getting away on Puerto de la Foradada. It’s only a category 3 climb but the 5.9 km towards the top still have an average gradient of 5.9 %. There are a lot of tired legs in the peloton after the last two days and it will be interesting who has something left in the tank.From the top of Puerto de la Foradada, the riders will have 60 km to cover in a light crosswind before the they start on the next climb. Puerto de Cotéfablo is 12.5 km long and has an average gradient of 4 %. It’s not a very steep climb but after the last two days, it won’t be a walk in the park either.

At this point on the stage, the wind has now changed and what started out as a tailwind is now a headwind. This means the final 30 km will be extremely hard for a breakaway and it's important to have saved something for the final climb. The ascent up to Aramón Formigal is 15.8 km long and has an average gradient of only 4 %. However, most of the first 6 km are either flat or downhill. The road start to kick up with 10 km to go and the following 3.5 km are steep with parts of nearly 10 %. The climbs then evens out for about 4 km before it gets steep again. The final 3.5 km have an average gradient of 7 % and this is where you can make the difference.

Aramón Formigal. 15.8 km / avg. 4 %. Last 3 km avg. 7 %.

In my preview for stage 15 I mentioned riders like Vasil Kiryienka, Mikel Landa and Diego Ulissi as good breakaway candidates. Landa made it into the break but didn’t have the strength to stay with Geniez. Kiryienka and Ulissi stayed in the peloton and once again, I’d like to point to those two as candidates for a break. I will add to that list riders like Egoi Martinez, Bauke Mollema, Marcos Garcia, Georg Preidler and Chris Anker Sørensen.

The last two names for the (long) list of good candidates are Amets Txurruka and Rigoberto Uran. Txurruka was very active in the beginning of stage 15 and he started several breakaways. However, Txurruka couldn’t cover every move and in the end the big break went away without him (but with two other Caja Rural riders). Rigoberto Uran too was very active on stage 15. He stayed with the favorites for most of the time and he even tried to get away a couple of times. Uran is obviously feeling better and being nearly 25 minutes after Vincenzo Nibali, he won’t be the first rider the peloton start chasing down.

Among the favorites, there are no doubts that Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner are the two strongest riders uphill right now. Actually, it’s probably Horner’s teammate Robert Kiserlovski who’s best climber at the moment. The Croatian champion is a very important help for Horner these days! The last two days have been tough on the riders and once again, it will be interesting to see how 41 years old Chris Horner will recover. Naturally, he can’t recover as fast as the younger riders but so far he doesn’t seem to have any problems at all.

Alejandro Valverde and especially Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez tried to attack on stage 15 but Nibali and Horner never let them get more than a few meters. The final climb is not very steep this time and it will be very difficult for the two Spaniards to get away. Valverde seems to be satisfied with third place overall and he’s probably paying more attention to Purito in 4^th place than to Horner in 2^nd place. Valverde knows he can outsprint Purito in the end Purito knows it too. The final three kilometers on Formigal are the steepest and I expect Purito to put in a couple of strong attacks in the hairpin corners trying to drop Valverde. It won’t be easy but it seems like Purito is very eager to make up for the lost time.

The final 3 km of stage 16. Avg. of 7 %.

Domenico Pozzovivo is only six seconds in front of Nicolas Roche in 5^th place but I don’t think he will have problems keeping the Irishman behind him. Pozzovivo has been very focused on not wasting any energy too early in the race. The Italian climber came to the race aiming for Top5 overall and he’s been saving energy for the last week. Roche has already put in numerous attacks and hadn’t he had a one minute gap to the favorites on the last climb on stage 15, he probably would have lost time again.

Samuel Sanchez is right now the best Euskaltel rider in the mountains and he too seems to be getting better and better every day. Sanchez can’t follow the top favorites when it gets steep but he’s clever and knows how to keep a good pace. The final climb on stage 16 has a couple of flat parts and I won’t surprise me to see Sanchez attack on the flat parts to get a good gap before the road kicks up again. He may even be able to win this stage like that if the peloton keeps the breakaway within striking distance.

The Vuelta pays homage to Fernando Escartín with this stage. The former Kelme captain never managed to win Vuelta a España but he was among the best climbers the country has ever produced.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 16, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Amets Txurruka to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

Daniele Ratto took a beautiful stage win in the rain when he soloed away to win on Collada de la Gallina. Belkin deserves to be mentioned as well though. The Dutch team put in play a brilliant plan but unfortunately, Luis León Sanchez crashed on the long descent and had to quit the race. So did Ivan Basso and since Purito and Valverde are not on top of their game, this Vuelta is down to the battle between Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Horner.

Stage 14 was a horrible day in the saddle for the riders and it won’t get any better this Sunday. In fact, it only gets worse as the stage is almost 100 km longer. The weather stays the same and there aren’t any less climbs on the menu. On paper, this is another good stage for a breakaway. The favorites will focus on each other and since Nibali and Horner are the strongest uphill, we probably won’t see Katusha and Movistar go hard for the stage win. At least not from the very beginning.

The riders start climbing after just 7 km of the stage when Puerto del Cantó starts. The 24.4 km towards the top have an average gradient of 4.2 %. It’s steepest in the beginning and we can expect a lot of attacks right from the start. From the top of Puerto del Cantó, there are still 50 km until the next climb starts and in tailwind, the breakaway has time to get a good gap.

The final 16.7 km of stage 15 up to Peyragudes.

After 81 km it’s time for Puerto de la Bonaigua. It’s another long climb - 20 km - and with an average gradient of 5,5 %, there won’t be many riders left in the peloton at the top. The descent is almost 65 km long and it’s extremely important to be wearing enough clothes. It will be a very cold day and if you forget to eat and stay warm, you probably won’t be able to cope with the tough final in France.

The last 50 km are the same as when Alejandro Valverde won on Peyragudes in the Tour de France last year. First Col du Port de Balés, then Col de Peyresourde and after a short descent it’s time for the final 4 uphill kilometers towards the finishing line. I think a breakaway will make it all the way again, especially with the tough start of the stage in the mind. There are still many hard climbs left in this Vuelta and the GC riders have to save as much energy as possible in this horrible weather.

I had big expectations for Euskaltel’s Mikel Landa heading into to this Vuelta. Landa did very well in Burgos and seemed to be in great shape. However, he hasn’t shown much of his qualities, until this Saturday. On the hardest stage of the race so far, Mikel Landa stayed with the favorites almost all the time and finished in 9^th place. Euskaltel tried a big play with three riders (Urtasun, Martinez & Antón) attacking but they didn’t manage to get away. It really seems like the team has woken up after the good news of Fernando Alonso saving the team. Mikel Landa is more than one hour after Nibali in the GC and he’s not a rider they will give many thoughts should he attack. It shows a lot of strength to do as well as Landa did on Stage 14 and if he can recover well enough, I think he will try to give Euskaltel their first stage win in their last Vuelta España - as we have known them for 20 years.

Another rider who did very well on Saturday’s tough stage is Vasil Kiryienka. With both of his captains out of the GC, Kiryienka can now take his own chance and he tried a couple of times on stage 14. He didn’t manage to get away but when they were only 10 riders left in front, Vasil Kiryienka was still there. He faded at bit in the end and finished 26^th but I’m sure his sensations were good. The strong Belarusian knows how to get into the winning breakaways and finish it off in the big mountains.

Weather forecast for stage 15. Click for larger view.

I also think Diego Ulissi has a good chance on this stage. The young Italian won the first mountain stage in Tour of Poland last month, also in rainy conditions. Ulissi is very strong on the climbs, not afraid of attacking and he packs a very good sprint as well. The final kilometer of stage 15 is flat and should it happen a few riders arrive together, it will be difficult to beat Diego Ulissi.

In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali already showed he doesn’t mind the harsh weather. He is right now the strongest rider in the race and I doubt he will let go of the Red Jersey anymore. Of course, everybody can have an off day and it’s important to recover well after Saturday’s struggle. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how soon-to-be 42 years old Chris Horner will cope with this long and difficult stage. So far he hasn’t shown any weaknesses uphill and with Robert Kiserlovski in outstanding shape, I guess the other GC riders just can’t drop him.

Alejandro Valverde said he had the worst day of his life on bike in Andorra. He was cold on the descents and it wasn’t until they started climbing he was able to get warm and find his rhythm. However, when he started to climb he was fast. Very fast! He overtook one rider after the other to finish 6^th on the stage. Valverde knows the final on this stage climbs very well and if he can cope with the bad weather and stay in front, he has a very good chance of repeating his stage win from last year.

Katusha wanted to set up Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez near his home in Andorra but Purito simply couldn’t follow the attacks from Horner and Nibali. He decided to keep his own pace and minimize his losses and now the Spanish climber is 2:57 min after Nibali in the overall classification. He has 1:05 min up to Valverde in third place and I think it will be very difficult for Purito to make the overall podium this year. Of course, anything can still happen on these stages but Purito needs to find stronger legs if he wants to distance his rivals uphill.

If you are looking for other interesting riders to make the early breakaway, look to guys like; Chris Anker Sørensen, Andre Cardoso, Amets Txurruka, Javi Moreno, Rafa Valls and Ivan Santaromita. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 15, Laura picks Mikel Nieve to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

The breakaway made it all the way Friday on stage 13. Unfortunately, this unlucky combination took out Beñat Intxausti. The Basque Movistar rider managed to get into the winning break on the day the race started in the hometown of his late his teammate Xavi Tondo. It would have been a beautiful story had Intxausti won the stage but he never got the chance. Instead, Warren Barguil took the biggest win of his young career after an impressive late attack. Vincenzo Nibali still leads the race overall and it will be interesting to see if he can keep the Red Jersey after stage 14.

The Vuelta enters Andorra this Saturday and that means it’s time to start climbing. However, the first 40 km are downhill and we can expect another fast start. On paper, a breakaway could make it again but this is a short and extremely hard stage and the favorites will be eager to test each other.

Port de Envalira is the highest point of this year’s race, the so-called Cima Alberto Fernández. The 26.7 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.2 % and start after 60 km. There are steep parts of 15 % near the top and we can expect a very reduced peloton already at this early point of the stage. If you have a bad day today, you will end up losing a of time and with many strong teams, I doubt the pace won’t be high on Port de Envalira.

The following two climbs, Coll de Ordino and Alto de la Comella, both have an average gradient of about 5 % with steep parts near the top. They will tire out the peloton but they won’t be decisive. After 148.5 km in the saddle, the riders arrive to the bottom of the final struggle of the day. Collada de la Gallina is 7.2 km long and has an average gradient of 8 %. It was on this climb that Alberto Contador was caught on the final meters last year. In case you don’t remember the stage you can watch it below:

In 2010, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez did everything he could to wear the Red Jersey when the Vuelta entered Catalunya. He wanted to show off the jersey on home soil and he managed to do it. Now we are in Andorra and once again, Purito is home. Confused? Don’t be. Purito is now living in Andorra and he knows this climb better than anyone does. He wanted to win here last year but after closing the gap to Contador, Valverde came around him on the final meters. This year, Purito is out for revenge. On Sunday the 8^th, it’s the national holiday in Andorra and according to Purito; “it would be the bomb to win here the day before the national holiday. Especially after what happened last year”. A breakaway has good chances of making it all the way but I think Katusha will be eager to control the race. Purito is 2:33 min after Nibali in the overall classification and he knows he has to attack. He can’t just wait to the final kilometer and take the bonus seconds.

Purito’s teammate Dani Moreno had a brilliant day on Collada de la Gallina last year where he constantly stayed next to Purito. Moreno is now 3:56 behind in the GC and there is no doubt that he will be acting as super domestique for Purito again this Saturday. On stage 12, Moreno went down the same place where Intxausti crashed but luckily he didn’t hurt himself too much.

Chris Horner has been the best rider on the climbs so far in the race. The American veteran easily dropped the other GC riders on the last mountain top finish and if he shows the same strength, he will be difficult to beat. Personally, I doubt Horner will be able to keep his high level for the rest of the race but then again, it wouldn’t be first time he surprised everybody in this Vuelta…

It will be interesting to see how Astana will ride this stage. Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in control and with his late attack the other day; he showed he’s very strong right now. Jakob Fuglsang will be an important help for Nibali when they are only 10 riders left in front. It’s very difficult to attack and keep a gap when the Danish climber sets the pace. Just ask Pozzovivo.

Collada de la Gallina. 7.2 km / avg. 8 %

Collada de la Gallina is a very tough climb but I doubt we will see huge times differences between the big favorites. They all seem to be very equal. Last year Alejandro Valverde attacked from the peloton with three kilometers to go but later on, he had problems following the strong accelerations of Contador and Froome. Valverde is only 46 seconds after Nibali and knowing there are still many climbs left in this Vuelta, he may be fine just sticking to the strong Italian and then beat him on the line.

Nicolas Roche is the big joker. He’s in the shape of his life but he got dropped several times on Alto de Hazallanas. Every time he managed to fight his way back but how long can he continue to do that? On stage 13, he looked very strong when he followed Katusha’s move on Rat Penat but it’s uncertain how he will cope with the hard climbs in Andorra. Saxo-Tinkoff also has Rafal Majka in Top10 overall and the Polish climber will be a very important helper for Roche.

A third Saxo-Tinkoff rider I think we need to keep an eye on for this stage is Roman Kreuziger. He finished 5^th overall in the Tour de France this summer but didn’t want to aim at the GC in the Vuelta. Instead, Kreuziger is focusing on the World Championship in three weeks’ time. Originally, the plan was to aim for a stage win but with Roche near the Red Jersey, Kreuziger may have to stay in the peloton and help his Irish teammate. The Czech Amstel Gold Race winner did a great time trial the other day and I think Kreuziger will be up there near the front to help Roche on Collada de la Gallina.

The weather forecast shows clouds and possible thunderstorms for tomorrow’s stage. The complete opposite of what we have seen the first part of the Vuelta. In the Giro this year, Vincenzo Nibali showed that not even a snowstorm could hold him back on the climbs and he won’t be suffering in the bad weather. One that may do is Domenico Pozzovivo. He surprised many with his third place in the time trial and so far, he’s been looking very strong uphill. However, Pozzovivo doesn’t like the cold weather and we may see the tiny Italian fade a bit in the cold temperatures.

Thibaut Pinot has been among the best riders uphill the last week but he’s not feeling 100 % at the moment. The French climber is not comfortable on the descents and with three of them before the final climb; he may lose ground. Especially if weather is bad. Ivan Basso is no champion on the descents either but when he’s first in the front group, he doesn’t let go. The many climbs are good for a diesel motor like Basso and even though he can’t follow the strong attacks of Horner or Purito he knows how to keep his pace and come back to the front. Time after time.

In case a breakaway ends up making it all the way, look out for riders like:

Chris Anker Sørensen - Feeling better and better every day and is looking to win a stage from a break.

Sergio Henao - Out of the GC and hopes to save his Vuelta with a stage win.

Diego Ulissi - Strong and very eager to attack.

Igor Antón - 7^th Collada de la Gallina last year and already out of the GC.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 14, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

Philippe Gilbert finally got his first win in his Rainbow Jersey when he won stage 12 of the Vuelta. Just like last year when he arrived winless at the Vuelta. Back then, Gilbert went on to win another stage in the race and I think he may just make it two in a row. More on that later.

Stage 13 comes on a Friday and like in the Tour earlier this year, this unlucky combination may cause carnage. In July, Belkin and Saxo-Tinkoff split up the peloton in the crosswind and due to a bike problem; Alejandro Valverde ended losing his race that day. Despite riding alongside the coastline the last 15 km, the wind shouldn’t be a problem on this stage However, the steep Alto del Rat Penat will make sure, nobody arrives to final with fresh legs.

Alto del Rat Penat comes after 114.8 km and even though this category 1 climb is only 4.3 km long, its average (!) gradient of 10.6 % will definitely stretch out and split up the peloton. The following descent is very technical and on small roads, it won’t be easy to get to the front if you’re already dropped on the climb. However, it won’t be easy to keep the peloton behind you either, should you attack on the climb. The final 15 km next to beach are flat and we can expect the peloton to set a high pace at this point. It’s a short stage of only 169 km and that means it will be fast stage as well. Many of the usual sprinters will be dropped and even those remaining won’t have it easy.

Alto del Rat Penat. 4.3 km / avg. 10.6 %

With 3 km to go, the riders turn left, away from the beach. From here, they continue straight out for about two kilometers. The final kilometer includes a couple of turns and with 500 meters to go, the peloton have to overcome a rather large roundabout. Coming out of the roundabout, he final 400 meters are uphill and especially the final 150 meters are steep. It’s very important to have something left in the legs for this final part. It’s not as steep as Alto del Rat Penat but it’s enough to make a significant selection.  

Philippe Gilbert timed his sprint perfectly on stage 12 and knew he was the best in the uphill sprint. He didn’t panic when Edvald Boasson Hagen got a bug gap early and that shows that Gilbert mentally is very strong too. He hasn’t won a single bike race since he won the World Championship last year and it takes a lot to cope with that pressure. This final is perfect for Gilbert and I’m convinced BMC will do whatever they can to control the race in the final.

The biggest threat to Gilbert is, the way I see it, Dani Moreno. The strong Spaniard has already won two stages in this year’s Vuelta and a win here, will also extend his lead in the points classification. It may not be his primary target in the race but if Katusha can’t put a rider on the final podium, at least they can take the Green Jersey. Dani Moreno forgot to eat the other day, when Horner won the stage, but he still seems to be in outstanding shape. Thursday, Moreno turned 32 and a win in Castelldefels would be a great birthday present for the strong Katusha rider.

Another Katusha rider who will be extra motivated is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Stage 13 starts in Valls, the hometown of the late Xavi Tondo. The Spanish rider tragically died on May 23, 2011 while getting ready for training ride. Purito was a good friend of Tondo and last year, he won stage 17 of the Giro d’Italia on the day marking Tondo’s death. It won’t be easy for Purito to win the stage and dedicate it to his late friend but together with Dani Moreno, it’s not impossible.

Michael Matthews punctured with 5 km to go on stage 12 and didn’t get a chance to take part in the sprint. The uphill finish on stage 12 probably suited Matthews more than the one on stage 13 will do but the former U23 World Champion seems to be in great shape. Matthews has been killing the competition on the steep finish in Stirling, in Tour Down Under, two years in a row (2011 & 2012) and on a good day, he’s up there fighting with Gilbert and Moreno for the stage win.

Other strong candidates for the stage win are riders like Alejandro Valverde, Gianni Meersman, Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sanchez, Rinaldo Nocentini and Edvald Boasson Hagen. On paper, this finish is also perfect for Simon Gerrans. However, the Australian doesn’t seem to be 100 % after his crash earlier in this race. Of course, if Gerrans is ready to fight, he is one of the favorites for this stage.

Juan Antonio Flecha is another good outsider. Vacansoleil-DCM is without sprinters at the moment since Barry Markus is out of the race and Grega Bole is fighting a respiratory infection. Flecha is in great shape right now and he’s constantly near the front in the final. In addition, with 22 km to go, the peloton passes through Sitges where Flecha moved to from Argentina at the age of 11. Flecha is now living in today's finish town Castelldefels. It won’t be easy for the Spaniard to outsprint the fast guys but if he can get a little gap, he may be able to take a big win on home soil. One thing is for sure; Flecha will be extremely motivated!

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 13, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and she picks Juan Antonio Flecha to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

Fabian Cancellara confirmed his great condition by beating Tony Martin against the clock for the first time a couple of years. As expected, his teammate Chris Horner lost the Red Jersey, which is now back on the shoulders of Vincenzo Nilbali. A wasp stung the Astana captain the evening before the time trial but Nibali showed that a wasp can’t take out of shark.

Vincenzo Nibali will have no problems keeping the Red Jersey on Stage 12. This is a day for the sprinters and after missing out on the last two occasions, their teams will be extra motivated to control the race. The first part of the 164.2 km from Maella to Tarragona is up and down most of the time. The riders will be battling cross- and headwind all day long and I don’t expect a breakaway to get much of a gap. The sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances and the strong, opportunistic riders know they may have a better chance on stage 13.

There is a single categorized climb on today’s stage. Alto del Collet starts after 83 km and the 7.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of just 3.6 %. From the top, there are 73.7 km to go and this is definitely the easiest part of the route.

It sounds like a broken record but once again, the race organizers have created a tricky and difficult final. The peloton will be heading towards Tarragona in high speed and a couple of sharp corners will test the riders’ ability to stay upright. With 3 km to go, the peloton turns left and rides next to see beachfront. The following kilometer is flat and we can expect Argos-Shimano and GreenEdge to set a high pace. However, after crossing the 2 km to go-port, the road starts to kick. Not much but enough to tire out the leadout teams. An uphill U-turn and a couple of 90° turns will serve as good place to attack if the sprinters’ teams can’t keep it together.

Map of the final 5 kilometers of Stage 12. The road starts to kick up with 2 km to go. The final kilometer is flat.

The final kilometer is flat but not without danger. Right after crossing flame rouge, there is a sharp left-hand turn and with 300 meters to go, the riders have to cross a roundabout in high speed. The ideal scenario is to enter this roundabout in second position with a single leadout rider in front of you. If you are not among the first three riders here, you won’t win this stage.

The last two bunch sprint stages have been extremely chaotic. Tony Martin almost kept the peloton at bay in the first one and the day after, Philippe Gilbert and Zdenek Stybar manage to hold off the pack with a late attack. The uphill kilometer in the end doesn’t favor the sprinters but I think they will keep it together this time. The way I see it, Michael Matthews is still the fastest rider in this bike race. GreenEdge have been saving their riders the last two days, thinking about this stage and among the remaining sprinters, I can’t see who should beat Matthews in a clean sprint.

Gianni Meersman is fast too but I don’t think he can match Matthews’ speed right now. Meersman usually positions himself very well but without a leadout, I doubt he will do better than top3. Max Richeze has been very strong so far in his Vuelta. He has already finished second twice and if anybody is able to beat Michael Matthews, it may be Lampre’s Argentinian sprinter. Richeze is very fast on the final meters but he needs to enter that last roundabout among the first three riders. Alone against the leadout trains, that’s a tall order.

Tyler Farrar deserves to be mentioned as well but the American sprinter is much better at making top3 than at winning bike races. Farrar is very consistent but he lacks that extra edge. It would be a mistake to count him out in this field but it will also be a bit surprising to see him win in Tarragona.

Argos-Shimano hasn’t been able to control the race as well as they have done earlier this season. They bring a very young team to the Vuelta and their inexperience shows. However, the team is still strong and with riders like Nikias Arndt, Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam they should be able to do a great leadout. Sinkeldam is very fast and if Arndt and Janse van Resnburg can keep the speed high and make sure they enter that last roundabout in front, Sinkeldam may surprise a few. I doubt he can outsprint Michael Matthews but I think he will put up a good fight.

Another interesting rider for this stage is Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky has been very anonymous so far in the race and without anybody able to fight for the overall win, they may change their focus to the sprints. Boasson Hagen doesn’t need a leadout and he knows how to position himself well in the final. The uphill kilometer towards flame rouge favors the strong Norwegian and if he’s not scared of doing the sprints - after getting back from an injury - he should be able to fight for the win.

Riders like Juan-Antonio Flecha and Philippe Gilbert are never afraid of attacking and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them trying a late attack on the uphill part in the final. The many twist and turns don’t favor the peloton but it won’t be easy to stay away. Instead, Friday’s stage 13 looks a lot better for Gilbert and the other puncheurs. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 12, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv