Vuelta a España: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

Another sprint stage turned into a crazy cat and mouse game. Zdenek Stybar showed his class once again when he out-sprinted Philippe Gilbert. The World Champion is therefore still winless in the rainbow jersey.

The sprinters have had their chances the last three days in a row and now it’s time for the GC riders to take charge. Stage 8 is only 166.6 km long and that makes for a fast day under the hot Andalusian sun. The first 125 km of the stage will take place in head- and crosswind. The break has a good chance of making it all the way and we can expect a furious fight to get into that final break.

With about 40 km to go the riders turn left and continue alongside the coast. There is an intermediate sprint in Estepona and four kilometers later, the final climb begins. Peñas Blancas is a category 1 climb and the 14.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 %. The first couple of kilometers are very steep with parts over 12 %. The next part is not very steep but it’s constantly up and down and it will be very difficult to keep a steady rhythm. The last 8 km, however, have a steady gradient of 7-8 % and contrary to the beginning of the stage, the riders now have a tailwind all the way to the line. The change of wind favors the opportunistic riders but in the end, it’s all about having the best legs.

Many riders are not familiar with this climb but one rider knows it like the back of his hand. I talked about Luis Angel Maté in the preview for stage 7. He didn’t make the break but it would surprise me not to see him try this Saturday. Maté rides Peñas Blancas a couple of times a week and he knows every meter towards the finishing line. You may not think of Maté as a climber but he’s been getting better and better uphill the recent years. In the Tour de France this summer he was the last rider to help teammate Dani Navarro finish in Top10 overall. On the final mountain stage to Annecy, Maté finished 27^th in front of strong climbers like Antón, Ten Dam and Rolland.

In case the GC riders end up gunning for the stage win, Alejandro Valverde must be the favorite. Valverde has been eager to point out that for him the World Champions is more important than the Vuelta. However, the Movistar leader is in great shape and the steady finish suits him very well. Furthermore, Valverde is very fast on the line and should the top favorites arrive together, I can’t see anybody outsprinting him. The only thing talking against Valverde is that he doesn't know the climb. Valverde’s teammates Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi and José Herrada could also be jokers for the stage win. Especially Herrada has been extremely strong, leading the peloton whenever the road kicks up.

Peñas Blancas. 14.5 km / avg. 6.6 % - Click for lager view.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is already 53 seconds after Vincenzo Nibali in the overall classification. The Spanish climber knows he has to gain time whenever he can but this isn’t really a great climb for Purito. He will ‘enjoy’ the first couple of kilometers with steep gradients and constantly change of rhythm. However, the final 8 km with steady gradients won’t make it easy for Purito to drop his rivals. Instead, teammate Dani Moreno may put in another attack and take advantage of his great shape. Riders like Ivan Basso and Samuel Sanchez are normally very good on these kind of climbs and I expect to see both of them in the front as well.

The leading rider, Vincenzo Nibali, won’t have any problems on Peñas Blancas. Paolo Tiralongo, Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang will be supporting their team leader on the climb and especially Fuglsang looks very strong right now. Nibali knows he can take time on his rivals in the individual time trial in a couple of days and he doesn’t need to attack already. Before the Vuelta started, Nibali said he was starting out on 75 % of his maximum level. So far, the Italian shark has been showing great shape but on a tough climb like this one, it may be best to ride a little cautious. Of course, if Nibali sees a chance to attack in the final and get the 10 bonus seconds, he won’t think twice.

One of my personal outsiders for the stage win is Leopold König. His countryman Stybar won stage 7 and it won’t be a big surprise if we get another Czech win on Saturday. König arrived to the Vuelta in great shape and he put in a strong attack on stage 2. Nicolas Roche ended up winning the stage but the NetApp Endura captain showed his great climbing legs. Peñas Blancas suits Leo König very well and if the favorites start looking at each other, I’m sure König will take his chance.

Other good candidates for the stage win are Domenico Pozzovivo, who’s in outstanding shape right now, Chris Horner, who is aiming to take back the Red Jersey, Bauke Mollema, who looks very strong and Sergio Henao, who is eager to take back the time he lost on stage 2.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 8, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

What an effort from Tony Martin on stage 6. Alone in front from the start to the end, well almost to the end. Fabian Cancellara got a jump on the Argos-Shimano train and performed a perfect leadout for Michael Mørkøv who won the stage. This is only the second professional win in Mørkøv’s career. The first one came in June earlier this year when he won the Danish Championship. Impressive.

Stage 7 is another flat stage and after missing out on Thursday, I’m sure the sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances. The peloton continues south into Andalucía and without a single categorized climb, this won’t be a difficult day in the saddle. The GC riders will have their mind fixed on tomorrow’s mountain stage and they will hope for a quiet day in the peloton.

Everybody managed to stay upright despite the technical finish on stage 6 and hopefully the same will happen Friday afternoon. Once again the race organizers have put in numerous obstacles on the final kilometers. Six roundabouts within the last three kilometers are what the riders have to overcome. The last one, turning right, is placed just 700 meters from the line. The road slightly bends to the left on the last 300 meters and first rider out of this bend most likely wins the stage.

It’s another technical finish but luckily the riders will have a chance to get to know it before it counts. There is an intermediate sprint on the finishing line with 31.4 km to go and knowing the route will hopefully keep everybody upright in the final.

Argos-Shimano almost managed to set up Ramon Sinkeldam perfectly on stage 6. Tony Martin’s strong effort made them take the lead a little too early and they paid for their work in the end. Sinkeldam was extra motivated to win on his wife’s birthday but despite great legs, he couldn’t do better than 15^th place. As I mentioned yesterday, this isn’t Argos-Shimano’s top leadout team. It’s a young team but they still show a lot of power taking the lead. I think it will be a “normal” bunch sprint on stage 7 and if they manage to set up Ramon Sinkeldam again, he could take the peloton by surprise.

The final 5 kilometers of stage 7. Click for larger view.

Like Argos-Shimano, also GreenEdge have a couple of strong guys for the sprints. Michael Matthews is obviously the fastest one right now but a flat sprint like this one is probably better for Leigh Howard. Matthews said that everything now is just a bonus but I’m sure the Australians are very eager to take another win. Matthews is now riding in the green points jersey and the despite the many mountains, this could be a goal for him. It won’t be easy but if GreenEdge decides to go for him in all the sprints, I can’t see why he shouldn’t win a handful more stages.

Max Richeze has been second the last two days in a row and he’s definitely one of the favorites for this stage. The Argentinian sprinter is getting better and better as the race goes on. He doesn’t have that final leadout rider to deliver him in the sprints but he’s very fast on the final meters. Richeze needs to get on the right wheel and he if manages so, he could very well end up winning this stage.

Tyler Farrar couldn’t to better than fourth place on stage 6 but to be fair, Farrar was very fast in the end. The American’s big problem is his positioning. Personally, I don’t understand why Garmin doesn’t wait until the end before taking the lead. Alex Rasmussen is a brilliant leadout rider and if Farrar enters the last bend on the wheel of Rasmussen, he will be extremely difficult to beat.

Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely try to set up Gianni Meersman again on stage 7. The Belgian sprinter doesn’t seem to be as fast as Matthews and Richeze right now but with a little bit of luck, Omega Pharma Quickstep may finally take a stage win.

I also have to mention Michael Mørkøv among the candidates after his impressive win on stage 6. The Danish Champion said he was sure he would win when he saw the finish line on the wheel of Cancellara. Obviously he’s in great shape right now. Usually, Mørkøv works hard for his teammates but after his win in Cáceres, I’m sure he will be eager to try again in Mairena Del Aljarafe.

The way I see it, there is 95 % chance of this stage ending in a bunch sprint. A break will definitely get away in the beginning but they know it’s almost doomed. It’s usually local riders and riders from the smaller teams who get into these kind of breakaways and as one of the semi-locals, look out for Luis Angel Maté. El Lince Andaluz is not afraid of attacking despite poor chances of succeeding and I’m sure we will see the Cofidis rider in a break soon. If not this Friday then definitely in the weekend.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 7, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After missing out on stage 4, Michael Matthews did a perfect sprint to win stage 5. GreenEdge worked all day in front of the peloton all day long and in the sprint, nobody came close to the young Australian. Garmin tried to set up Tyler Farrar but they will soon have to realize that Farrar’s day as a top sprinter seems to be over.

Stage 6 is the second of three days in a row made for the fast guys and we can expect another bunch sprint. The stage starts out in Guijuelo and the riders will be able to enjoy a slight tailwind all the 174 km south towards Cáceres. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu and even though it’s not flat either, it’s definitely not as hard as the last two days.

With 7 km to go, the road starts to kick up a little but only 2.5 %. It won’t make for a selection in the peloton but the technical final four kilometer may do. Are no less than six difficult turns within the last four kilometers and of course a handful of roundabouts to overcome as well. This being the Vuelta and everything, of course the final turn comes just 400 meters from the line. Heading into a roundabout the peloton goes the long around instead of just turning left. This will really stretch out the peloton. If you enter this roundabout in second or third position, you have a very good chance of winning the stage.

Michael Matthews has been the fastest of the sprinters the last two days and he’s morale is now sky high. Originally GreenEdge had Leigh Howard down for this stage but it doesn't really make sense not to go for Matthews again. He’s obviously the fastest right now. Then again, the team spirit on GreenEdge is amazing and thinking about it, it wouldn’t actually surprise me to see Matthews leading out Howard to win.

Gianni Meersman tried to pass Matthews in the final of stage 5 but he didn’t even come close. I think it will be very difficult for Meersman to win this stage and it wouldn’t surprise me if Omega Pharma Quickstep gave youngster Andy Fenn a chance.

The final four kilometers. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano is right now the best sprint team in the world. They have finally perfected their leadouts and again on stage 5 they tried to make a surprise. They have a young team for this Vuelta and you don’t see any of the regular Tour de France riders among the nine starters. However, they still managed to hit the front with 5 riders on the final kilometers. Nikias Arndt was the man for stage 5 but it’s not necessarily him they will be going for every day. Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam are also very fast on the line.

Lampre’s Maximiliano Ariel Richeze is another fast rider in great shape right now. He wasn’t on top of his game in Eneco Tour but he still managed to finish 2^nd and 4^th in the sprints. This Vuelta is Richeze’s first Grand Tour since he did the Giro d’Italia in 2007 and he’s super motivated to do well. The Argentinian had to fight hard to get on Matthews wheel in the final of stage 5 and with a little bit more luck he might have been able to get closer. It won’t be easy for Richeze to win stage 6 but I think we will see the him in top3 again.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has finished 6^th the last two days in a row. The Norwegian rider was a bit disappointed with his sprint on stage 5 and he will be very motivated to do better this time. Boasson Hagen seems to be getting stronger every day and without any top sprinters in the peloton, he may give Team Sky their first win in this Vuelta Thursday afternoon.

Last of the outsiders for the win in Cáceres is also the rider finishing last on stage 5. Barry Markus is only 22 years old but he  hasalready been close to beating some of the big sprinters. In Tour of Qatar he finished 2^nd after Mark Cavendish twice and after coming back from his injury, Markus took 2^nd place on stage 1 of Arctic Race of Norway earlier this month. Vacansoleil-DCM has been setting up Grega Bole the last two days but with a more flat stage, it’s now time for the fast Dutchman.

As of Wednesday evening the weather forecast shows 50 % chance of rain for the final. Hopefully the roads will stay dry. If not, it seems unlikely nobody will crash on the last four kilometers.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 6, Laura picks Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

On stage 2, Dani Moreno waited too long when Nicolas Roche attacked. That mistake cost him the stage win. Tuesday afternoon, Moreno took no chances when he attacked from afar and managed to keep Fabian Cancellara and the rest of the peloton behind him. Cancellara’s strong effort probably made the gap among the favorites, which made Chris Horner lose the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali. However, the American doesn’t seem too upset over losing the jersey. “It’s ok for now. I will use my good legs to get it back”, he says.

Astana shouldn’t have problems keeping the jersey on Stage 5 even though it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. There are only two categorized climb on profile but the 174.3 km from Sober to Lago de Sanabria include numerous hills. Officially, the first climb Alto do Covelo doesn’t start until after 68.6 km. However, at this point the road has already been going uphill for the past 11 km.

With 42.3 km to go, the final categorized climb of the day begins. Alto de Padornelo is 11 km long but with an average of just 2.6 % it won’t make for a huge selection in peloton. It gets steeper towards the top but strong sprinters like Gianni Meersman, Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t have problems staying in front.

Coming down from Alto de Padornelo the final 20 km may look flat but don’t be fooled. We are in Spain and that means you shouldn’t trust the road book when it comes to “flat” parts. The last 10 km are constantly up and down and there is a part of 1.5 km with an average gradient of 4.3 % as the peloton enters Cubelo with 6 km to go. A tailwind will help the riders keep a high pace the final 5 km and without any sharp corners; it will be a fast finish. However, this is the Vuelta and it can’t surprise anybody that the race organizers have put in a 90° corner with just 600 meters to go. This will stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point. Preferably with two teammates in front of you.

Dani Moreno took the peloton by surprise on stage 4 but with a flat finish, guys like Meersman, Matthews and Boasson Hagen should be able to fight for the win. It’s a tough day and I’m not quite sure the pure sprinters will manage to stay in the peloton. The joker picks for a sprint are the same as those for stage 4. Meaning riders like Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Grega Bole and Anthony Roux.

There is a good chance of this stage finishing in a bunch sprint but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a breakaway making it all the way. It could be the morning breakaway and it could be a late breakaway on Alto de Padornelo. Vincenzo Nibali is not interested in losing the Red Jersey again so we have to look to riders already out of the GC for possible breakaway candidates.

Amets Txurruka is 4:33 min behind in the overall classification and the Basque rider is a true breakaway specialist. Txurruka is in great shape right now and has already tried to breakaway twice within the last couple of days. Another strong rider down the GC who is in good shape is Juan Antonio Flecha. He has attacked on the last kilometers the last two days in a row but without success. Flecha is obviously going strong right now but maybe he’ll have more luck with an attack from afar.

The TV-viewers have been spoiled with images of the beautiful scenery in Galicia and with the finish line next to Lago de Sanabria, this will be another spectacular stage to watch. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 5, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and picks Thomas de Gendt to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Movistar and Alejandro Valverde missed out once again on stage 3. They didn’t have enough fresh riders to close the gap on stage 2 and somehow they managed to make the same mistake Monday. Valverde even said he had the legs to win. Instead Chris Horner attacked and took an impressive stage win, only surpassed by his Spanish interview afterwards.

In my overall preview I wrote that Chris Horner was targeting the Red Jersey within the first couple of stages. One of the key points for that to happen was a strong team time trial and thanks to Fabian Cancellara, Horner had a chance to take the jersey. The 41 years old American climber is now the oldest rider ever to win a stage in a Grand Tour and he should have no problems keeping the leader’s jersey on stage 4.

Tuesday’s 189 km long stage takes the riders west from Lalín/A Estrada towards the finishing line in Fisterra. The riders will be battling the crosswind for most of the stage and we could see the peloton getting split up again. After 152.8 km the riders reach the feared ascent up to Mirador de Ézaro. This is only a category 3 climb but the 1.8 km towards the top have an average gradient of 13 %! There are only 34.4 km to go from top of Mirador de Ézaro and a strong team could really blow the race apart. Last year, stage 12 of the Vuelta finished on Mirador de Ézaro and in case you need a re-view click here.

"The stage to the end of the world".
Photo via @lavuelta on Twitter

This stage is called “the stage to end of the world” and it’s easy to see why. With 5 km to go, the peloton turns left and from hereon they simply continue straight out until the road ends. It’s a spectacular finish with a slightly uphill run-in towards the line. The final 2 km kick up with about 3.5 % and this time, Gianni Meersman shouldn’t have problems fighting for the win. Of course, he has to survive Mirador de Ézaro first. There is a soft left-hand corner with 200 meters to go and with a tailwind towards the line, first rider of out this corner most likely wins the stage.

Meersman finished 38^th on stage 3, just 22 seconds behind the favorites. The final kilometer was too hard for the Belgian rider, but the finish in Fisterra is perfect for him. Gianni Meersman arrived to the Vuelta with his eyes on this stage and I think he will be very difficult to beat.

Another strong candidate is Michael Matthews. The former U23 World Champion is a real specialist on these kind of finishes and he comes to the race with two fresh stage wins from Utah in the bag.  GreenEdge didn’t manage to set up Simon Gerrans for stage 3 but I think they have a good chance to set up Matthews for stage 4.

Argos-Shimano have two interesting riders for this stage in Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg. Both are very fast on the line in a sprint like this and it will be interesting to see if the two Grand Tour debutants can get over Mirador de Ézaro with the peloton. FDJ.fr also have a strong duo for these kind of finishes. Geoffrey Soupe and Anthony Roux are both in great shape right now. Especially Roux who won stage 4 of Tour of Burgos and finished in top4 on the first three stages of the race.

The following three stages are for the pure sprinters so this is the last chance in a while for the strong puncheurs.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 4, Laura picks Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

Stage 2 gave us a lot of answers. Euskaltel had high hopes for Samuel Sanchez in their last Vuelta but the former Olympic Champion got dropped early on the final climb. Sergio Henao came to the race as one of the outsiders for the podium but the Colombian climber didn’t have a great day and ended up getting dropped with 4 km to go. Both Henao and Sanchez lost 2:41 min to Nicolas Roche who took a brilliant stage win.

Vincenzo Nibali is new rider in the Red Jersey and unless Astana decides to give it away, Nibali could very well end up having this jersey all the way to Madrid. Roche is second overall, eight seconds down, while Zubeldia, Horner and Kiserlovski all finished with the favorites on stage 2 and sit 10 seconds behind Nibali.

Monday’s stage 3 looks a little bit like stage 2. It’s another flat one alongside the Galician coast but this time a headwind will make it hard for a breakaway to get a big gap. The TV-viewers will be spoiled by images of the amazing scenery and like on stage 2, there will be time to enjoy it. Unless the wind splits up the peloton, the stage probably won’t get interesting until the final 20 km.

The final 5 km of stage 3 up to Mirador de Lobeira-

The riders will be struggling with the headwind for most of the day but with four kilometers to go, the peloton turns right and the final four kilometers uphill will take place in a strong tailwind. The ascent up to Mirador de Lobeira only has an average gradient of 4.8 % but it has some steep parts. 

Also, it’s extremely important to be near the front. With about 1.5 km to go the riders turns right on the very narrow Camiño Novo. There are parts of 8% on this little road and you need to be among the first five riders if you want to win this stage. If not, you simply can’t move up in the peloton before it’s too late. There are 10 bonus seconds on the line and should Nicolas Roche be able to make two out of two, he will take the Red Jersey. It’s not very likely but if Saxo-Tinkoff delivers him in front, it could happen.

Even though the final climb isn’t very long nor very steep, I highly doubt the few pure sprinters will have a chance. Guys likes Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews however, may have a chance. Both riders are in great shape, cope well with the hills and are very fast on the line. On paper, Phillipe Gilbert should have a chance but I don’t think he’s ready after his crash in Eneco Tour. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another rider who could do well on this finish but he’s not 100 % either. 

UPDATE: It's now been confirmed that the race organizers have widened the road the last 1.5 km towards the finishing line. You can see a photo of the new road here. The road is now twice as wide as before and this clearly favors guys like Meersman and Matthews.

The view from Mirador de Lobeira is spectacular. This is one of the last turns on the narrow road towards the line.
Photo via Google Maps.

Movistar cranked up the pace on the final climb on stage 2 but they didn’t have anyone ready to follow when Dani Moreno attacked. Alejandro Valverde easily won the sprint among the favorites and should Movistar decide to go hard on the part of 8 %, Valverde will be the man to beat. The strong Spaniard has been eager to point out that for him, the World Championship is more important than the Vuelta. Still, few in the professional peloton has a killer instinct like Valverde when he sees the finishing line. If sprinters like Meersman and Matthews aren’t in the peloton, I can’t see who should beat Valverde.

Simon Gerrans is here to prepare for the World Championship and on paper, this is a very good stage for him. However, I’m not quite sure if Gerrans is up for it already. Matthews is definitely GreenEdge’s best card to play and he comes to the Vuelta with two fresh stage wins from Utah in the bag.

In case Gianni Meersman doesn’t have a good day, Omega Pharma Quickstep has two other very interesting riders in Pieter Serry and Zdenek Stybar. Both are very good on these kind of climbs and both are  packing a solid sprint as well. I doubt they can outsprint Alejandro Valverde but with a late attack they may take the peloton by surprise. 

For other outsiders look to the two Italians Rinaldo Nocentini and Diego Ulissi. Nocentini did very well in Burgos lately and finished 5^th in Tre Valli Varesine just a week before the Vuelta started. Rinaldo Nocentini is fighting for a spot on the Italian team for the World Championship and this stage is almost tailor-made for the Ag2r veteran. Domenico Pozzovivo came close on stage 2 and it won’t be a big surprise if Nocentini comes close on stage 3.

Diego Ulissi used Tour of Poland as preparation for the Vuelta and he started out by outsprinting the whole peloton to take the leader’s jersey. He later faded but then finished in a strong way. Lampre tried to set up Ulissi for the stage win on stage 2 but he waited too long and had to settle with 6^th place after Valverde. 

Ulissi is still young and he’s not a rider for a three weeks Grand Tour just yet. He knows how to target one-day-races and specific stages and I’m sure he has his eyes on this one. It won’t be easy to win but if the strong climbers can get rid of guys like Meersman & Matthews, Diego Ulissi definitely has a chance to win on Mirador de Lobeira.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 3, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Saturday's opening team time trial ended like we expected. OPQS set best time but in the end, Radioshack and Astana turned out to be a bit stronger. Of course it didn’t help OPQS that they had to wait a couple of times when Tony Martin made a gap to the rider behind him. Janez Brajkovic is first rider in the Red Jersey and that’s a perfect way to start out this race for the Slovenian rider. Brajkovic is without a contract for next year and he’s now using the Vuelta to show how great of a rider he is. Naturally, Vincenzo Nibali is the team leader, but Brajkovic hopes to make a good result overall while supporting this captain.

Usually it’s not an advantage for the big favorites to get the leader’s jersey already after the first stage. Therefore we often see a breakaway making it all the way early in the race. On paper, this second stage looks good for a break but since Brajkovic wants to get maximum attention in this race, I doubt he will give up the jersey.

The 177.7 km from Pontevedra to Baiona takes the riders south alongside the Galician coast. The TV-viewers are in for a spectacular view but the riders won’t have time to enjoy it. There aren’t many flat meters in this area and even though the profile doesn’t look very tough, it won’t be an easy day in the saddle.

The first categorized climb of this year’s Vuelta comes after 62.9 km and we should see a breakaway in front at this time. For teams like Euskaltel, Caja Rural, NetApp & Vancansoleil-DCM it will be important to get the KOM jersey and I think all four teams will be represented in the morning break.

Alto do Monte da Groba. 11 km - 5.6 % avg.

The stage finish with an 11 km long ascent up to Alto do Monte da Groba. The climb is steep in the beginning with parts of 10 % but then it evens out for about 4 km with gradients of 2-4 %. The final two kilometers have an average gradient of 7.5 % and especially the last corner is very steep. If you manage to get a little gap in this right hand corner, you should end up winning the stage with only 300 meters to go.

Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) and Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez (Katusha) didn’t have a great start to the race. Movistar lost Beñat Inxtausti early due a mechanical problem and Katusha had to wait for Dani Moreno as he was the 5^th and last rider in the end. Movistar lost 29 seconds to Vincenzo Nibali and Astana while Purito already is 59 seconds behind Nibali in the GC. There is still a long way to Madrid but Purito needs to win seconds every time he can. This means that Katusha most likely will try to control the stage in order to set up Purito for the win and the 10 bonus seconds on the line. Movistar should be able to help out as well since Valverde is very fast too.  The two Spaniards are definitely the big favorites this Sunday.

The final right hand corner towards the finishing line.

Had this been the Giro, I would have put Carlos Betancur down as one of the favorites. But, as I wrote in my overall preview, Betancur didn’t have an ideal preparation to the Vuelta. He’s been sick and he doesn’t look too good right now. I’m sure Betancur will be flying by the end of the race but I doubt we will see him in the very front already. 

His countryman, Sergio Henao, however is one of the outsiders who can win this stage. Henao has a strong kick and if he times it perfectly, he may be able to get a jump on Purito and Valverde if the two favorites start looking at each other. It’s also worth mentioning that Team Sky won’t be taking their usual role in a Grand Tour. Astana, Movistar and Katusha have the three big favorites for the overall win and therefore Team Sky don’t have to work as much as usually. They can save energy and wait for the right time to attack. Personally I think Dario Cataldo will have a great Vuelta and I won’t be surprised if he attacks and makes something big on Alto do Monte da Groba.  

In my overall preview I named Tomasz Marczynski as one of my jokers for the GC. The polish rider is very aggressive on the climbs and if he sees a moment to attack in the final, he won’t think twice. His teammate Wout Poels is in great shape right now and in those two, Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of very strong outsiders for the win. Luisle Sanchez is back on the big scene again and he must be eager to show himself in his home country. The final kilometer may be too steep for Sanchez but on a good day he could give Belkin something to cheer for after the team lost Theo Bos before the race even started.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 2, Laura picks Sergio Henao to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv