Tour de France: Stage 17 ITT Preview & Favorites

Everything went as expected on stage 16. A breakaway made it all the way and the GC riders gave us a good show on the final climb and descent. Despite the late attacks, the overall contenders didn’t burn too much energy and they will now have to use everything they have got left during one of the hardest time trials in recent Tour de France history.

The Route

This is another short time trial of only 32 km but that doesn’t make it easy, not at all! The riders face Côte de Puy-Sanières right from the beginning. This category 2 climb is 6.4 km long and has an average gradient of 6 %. It starts out with 5 % in the beginning and has parts of 9 % in the middle. The first time check is at the top of the climb and the last kilometers of 7 % will make it difficult to keep a steady rhythm. The descent is very technical and riders with good bike handling skills can really take back some time on his part.  Coming down from Côte de Puy-Sanières, the riders take on the next climb right away. The 6.9 km towards the top of Côte de Réallon have an average gradient of 6.3 % and it’s a lot easier to find into a good rhythm here. From the top of Côte de Réallon there are 12 km to go.

The Finish

The descent from Côte de Réallon is not as technical as the one from Côte de Puy-Sanières but after reaching the top and the second time check it actually takes a couple of kilometers before the riders starts on the downhill part. The final descent towards the line is very fast the riders should be able to reach a speed of about 80 km/h. The last kilometer is flat and it will be interesting to see if some of the heavier riders have been able to take back time on after the two climbs.

The Favorite

There is no “s” on Favorite this time since there is just one rider to beat if you want to win this stage. Only a strong headwind in the final kilometers kept Chris Froome from beating Tony Martin in the flat time trial and with two climbs on the profile, nobody will get even close to Froome. He’s the best rider uphill right now and even though some say he has difficulties on the descent, it’s not that bad. The only reason why he got off the bike on stage 16 was that Alberto Contador crashed in front of him. Actually, Froome did very well on the descent and he shouldn’t have bigger problems than other riders on this stage. Chris Froome knows he will be under attack in the Alps and he needs to distance himself from his rivals as much as possible before that. I think Froome will win this stage with at least one minute down to number two, probably even two minutes. The way I see it, it’s only the weather that can stop Chris Froome from destroying the peloton on this stage. As of Tuesday evening, there is 40 % chance of rain when Chris Froome takes the start and should it rain; the descents will be very difficult. In that case, look to riders down the GC starting early like national champions Lieuwe Westra and Jonathan Castroviejo.

The Jokers

After his outstanding time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco, Nairo Quintana looks like an interesting rider for this stage. He’s fighting with Michal Kwiatkowski for the white jersey and he will need a very a good day in order to beat the Pole against the clock. Both are among the outsiders for a Top3 place and so is Bauke Mollema. The Flying Dutchman has never been better and he’s done very well in the time trials the last couple of years. He finished 11^th in the flat time trial to Mont Saint Michel and in Tour de Suisse he took 3^rd place in the final uphill time trial and made the overall podium. Mollema wasn’t great on Mont Ventoux and if he wants to keep his podium place, he needs another strong performance against the clock before the Alps.

Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger will most likely fight for a top3 place on this stage as well but I doubt the World Champion, Tony Martin will be near the top. He may do Top5 on a good day but I would be very surprised to see him near Chris Froome this time.

Favorite: Chris Froome

Jokers: Bauke Mollema / Jonathan Castroviejo

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv and click here to see the starting order.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 17:

Tour de France: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

After the second and last rest day of this year’s Tour de France, the race continues with tricky stage leading the peloton towards the Alps. It’s not often we have a climb famous for its descent and not its ascent but that is the case this Tuesday.

The Route

On paper, the 168 km from Vaison-la-Romaine to Gap look perfect for a breakaway. The category 3 climb, Côte de la Montagne, starts after just 12 km and serves as a perfect place for a breakaway to be established. The last week of this Tour de France is extremely hard and the GC riders will be happy to have a quiet day in the peloton before the next four tough stages.

This is a short stage and that means the pace will high right from the beginning. For many riders, this is the last chance to win a stage in the Tour de France 2013 and it will be a furious fight to get into the morning breakaway. In case we don’t already have a break after Côte de la Montagne, I think it will happen on Col de Macuègne. This category 2 climb starts after 40 km and the 7.6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.2 %.

The riders will be enjoying a light tailwind for most of the day and from the top of Col de Macuègne a breakaway should be able to get a big gap. The following 100 km are more or less flat and unless Cannondale and Argos-Shimano miss the break, I doubt the peloton will be eager to catch them.

The Finish

With 21 km to go, the riders face the last climb of the day; Col de Manse. This category 2 climb is 9.5 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The ascent is not steep very steep but the descent is very difficult. In 2003, Joseba Beloki crashed hard in a corner and his career basically ended just 4 km from the finishing line in Gap. Lance Armstrong continued straight out, over the field, to join the group in the next corner. You all know the story.

The last time the Tour de France used this descent was in 2011. Alberto Contador hasn’t shown much of himself so far in the race but he came to life on Col de Manse with a series of strong attacks towards the top. In the end, he managed to drop Andy Schleck and on the wet descent Contador, Evans and Sanchez opened up a gap of more than one minute to Schleck who clearly didn’t feel safe on the bike.

The final 2 km of Stage 16.

The last 2.5 km are flat and straight out towards the line. Still, there are two or three roundabouts to overcome before crossing the finishing line. ASO have even put the 1-km-to-go-port in one of the roundabouts. As of Monday afternoon, the weather forecast shows rain in Gap at the time the riders are expected to finish and that means will get another dangerous finish to watch this year. Let's hope all riders stay upright.

The Favorites

I think a breakaway will make it but it all depends on Cannondale. They decided not to chase the other day when Matteo Trentin won the stage. The many climbs made it difficult for Cannondale to control the race but if they don’t have a rider in the break this time, I think they will try to bring it back for Peter Sagan. The final climb is not hard enough to drop Peter Sagan and the wet the descent won’t be a problem either. Nobody handle their bike like Peter Sagan and he can - by himself -  close a gap of 20-30 seconds on that final descent should it come to that.

Argos-Shimano is another interesting team for this stage. The climbs should not be too tough for John Degenkolb and if they don’t manage to put a rider in the break, I think they will set up a chase with Cannondale on the long flat part.

Should a breakaway make it all the way, Philippe Gilbert is my pick. So far BMC have been focused on Cadel Evans in the GC but after Sunday’s stage to Mont Ventoux, that race is now over. Gilbert has been complaining about not getting an opportunity to attack but now he has the chance. Gilbert is yet to win wearing the World Champion Jersey but he’s been very active the last couple of days. On Mont Ventoux he showed great climbing legs when he finished 29^th together with Cadel Evans and if Gilbert was to win a stage in this year’s Tour de France, this is the one. Philippe Gilbert also has a chance should a breakaway get caught. He won similar stage in last year’s Vuelta España when he attacked on Montjuic with Purito.

Wednesday’s uphill time trial is very - very - hard and I think the GC riders will save as much energy as possible. That being said, should Chris Froome show any weakness on the wet descent, naturally Alberto Contador and the Belkin boys have to take advantage. Remember, Froome lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall this year on a rainy up-and-down stage (won by Peter Sagan).

The Jokers

Like the other day, there are tons of good breakaway candidates. Riders like Alessandro De Marchi, Romain Bardet, Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler, Juan-Antonio Flecha and Damiano Cunego all lookspromising. I had Jan Bakelants down as my favorite for Stage 14 and he almost pulled it off. He’s been in great shape lately, I won’t be surprised to see him in front again on this stage. The same goes for Michael Albasini. He was the strongest rider the other day but burned up too much energy in the final. I’m sure he’s eager to take revenge and if he hit the right breakaway again, he will be difficult to beat. Adam Hansen is another interesting rider for this stage. He won a similar stage in the Giro d’Italia earlier this year - in the rain - and if he has the same strong legs this Tuesday, he could be a good pick for the stage win.

The wild card team, Sojasun, almost pulled off an amazing stage win with Julien Simon. The French puncheur was caught on the last kilometer and this stage is probably their last chance to make up for that. Julien Simon is ready to give it another go and so is Alexis Vuillermoz who’s knows these climbs very well. Should this stage end with a sprint in a reduced peloton, look out for riders like Michal Kwiatkowski, Tony Gallopin and Ramunas Navardauskas. 

Favorites: Peter Sagan & Philippe Gilbert

Jokers: Michael Albasini / Jan Bakelants / Michal Kwiatkowski

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 16:

Tour de France: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

 As expected, a breakaway made it on Stage 14 and now the focus is back on the GC riders. This last week of this year’s Tour de France will be extremely tough and it starts out with a killer mountain stage finishing on the legendary Mont Ventoux.

The Route

In the past, the stages on the French National Day were made for the breakaways. This year it’s different. Stage 15 is the longest stage of this year’s Tour and despite finishing on Mont Ventoux, the first 221 km are more of less flat. This means it’s highly unlike a break will make it all way. It will be another hot day in the saddle with temperatures over 30°c and after two hard stages, many will hope for a quiet start of the day.

A tailwind will help a morning breakaway get a good gap but the peloton will make sure it won’t get out of control. The intermediate sprint is located in Malaucène 15 km from the bottom of Mont Ventoux. Since the stage hasn’t been very hard until now, most of the sprinters should be able to fight for points for the Green Jersey.

The Finish

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux.

The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux have an average gradient of 7.5 %. The climb starts out quite soft with the first five kilometers not getting over 4-5 %. From here on the road really kicks up with percentages over 10 %. It’s always very windy after getting out of the forest into the moon landscape and this year is no different. The riders will be fighting a headwind and this will make it very difficult to attack and stay away alone. The last right hand turn towards the finishing line is the final struggle of the day and with more than 10 % you need to have something left in the tank if you’re not already alone in front.

The Favorites

The last time the Tour de France had a stage finish on Mont Ventoux, Juanma Garate won in front of Tony Martin after a long breakaway. Starting on Mont Ventpux, the break seemed doomed but since Andy Schleck didn’t want to attack without his brother, Fränk, the GC riders killed the stage and let Garate and Martin stay in front. I don’t think that will happen this year.

Chris Froome already has a good gap to his rivals and they need to take use of every opportunity they get. Froome’s rivals simply have to attack and gain time and everybody wants to win on this mythical climb. Chris Froome himself had his first - ever - rendezvous with Mont Ventoux just two months ago when he went to test his legs on the climb. Riders like Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck already know what to expect of Mont Ventoux and I think they will have a little advantage on Froome. However, it doesn’t help much if they can’t drop him uphill - and I don’t think they can.

The way I see it, Chris Froome is the big favorite for the stage win. He lost a minute to Contador and Mollema in the crosswind and I’m sure he will be eager to take back the lost time time and show who’s the strongest rider in the race. Team Sky are missing Vasil ‘Chloroform’ Kiryienka and Edvald Boasson Hagen but they still have David Lopez, Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte to set the pace and keep Chris Froome in front. It’s not ideal but it has to do. If not Froome, I think the stage winner will be Spanish.

Movistar will most likely make the race hard but they only have Nairo Quintana for the overall classification. The Colombian super climber will probably put in a couple of strong attacks but I think Froome will respond. He knows can’t let Quintana get away. On the other hand, if Alejandro Vavlerde tries an attack I doubt Froome will chase him down instantly. Valverde has good memories from Mont Ventoux. In 2009, he took the yellow jersey in Critérium Dauphiné (which he later won overall) on the stage to Mont Ventoux. Back then, he ‘gave’ the stage win to Sylvester Szmyd but this time Valverde isn’t giving anything away. Tour de France was his big goal this season and he lost it all when a rider broke his wheel on Stage 13. Movistar are out for revenge and with a fast finish - should it come to that - I think Valverde will be tough to beat if Froome is just focusing on keeping the jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with Froome and Valverde in front.

Also, look out for Andy Schleck. He’s getting stronger and stronger every day and he may have some unfinished business with Mont Ventoux from the last time he was here. The headwind won’t favor Andy Schleck but on a good day he could take another big stage win in the Tour.

The Jokers

The French riders will be eager to get something out of this Tour de France, especially on La Fête Nationale (Bastille Day). When the route was revealed Thibaut Pinot was my first pick for the stage win but now I’m not so sure. He seemed to arrive to the Tour in great shape but he had nothing in his legs in the Pyrenees. Lately he’s been getting better but apparently he has some kind of throat problems now. If he’s back at his 2012 level, he will be a dangerous outsider but I doubt it. Pierre Rolland is another strong French candidate and contrary to Pinot, Rolland seems to have great legs. A stage win on Mont Ventoux will help Pierre Rolland significantly in his fight to keep the Polka Dot Jersey and the other GC riders don’t have to worry about him. Rolland is 25:33 minutes behind Froome in the overall classification and he only focuses on stage wins and the KOM competition.

I have high hopes for Daniel Martin too. The strong Irishman has already won a big mountain stage in this year’s Tour de France and he’s been “saving bullets” for Mont Ventoux the last couple of days. Martin is 11^th overall so he won’t be giving a card blanche. Still, he won’t be the first rider Froome, Contador and Mollema will start chasing down either. Daniel Martin says he’s a big fan of the cycling history and naturally winning on a famous climb like Mont Ventoux would be amazing. He seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he has a strong kick too. I don’t know if Daniel Martin still fits the “joker” category but if so, he’s my joker for the stage win.

So. To sum it up: Chris Froome is the strongest rider uphill but may not have the best team. Furthermore, his primary target is to keep the yellow jersey. Alejandro Valverde is eager to take revenge and his Movistar team is very strong. Valverde is now out of the GC and the other favorites won’t chase him down right away. Not even Belkin…

Favorites: Chris Froome & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Pierre Rolland & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 15:

Just to get you into the right mood, take a look at the Mont Ventoux stage from 2000 when Marco Pantani won after an amazing comeback and series of furious attacks in the end:

Tour de France: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

After Friday’s boring sprint stage, it’s now time for some real action. Kidding aside, Saxo-Tinkoff showed they can outnumber Chris Froome in the crosswind but I doubt they will try something on this stage.

The Route

A morning breakaway is yet to make it all the way in this year’s Tour de France but I have a feeling it will happen this time. There are seven categorized climbs on the menu and even though they aren’t very steep, they should prove to be too much for the pure sprinters.

The first 60 km of the stage is flat and if the wind is strong we could see some teams trying to split the peloton once again. The forecast shows a light wind though and most likely, we will see fireworks of breakaway attempts instead. I expect these first 60 km to take place in a very high pace and since everybody knows this is a day for a breakaway, everybody wants to be up front.

The only thing that really can prevent a breakaway from making it is Peter Sagan and his Cannondale team. If they have the manpower to do another monster pull again, they could really make some damages. It all depends on the wind, who is in the break, how the GC riders feel and bunch of other things. Like I wrote the other day, Peter Sagan is not shy of attacking on these kind of stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to get into the morning breakaway himself.

The Finish

The final 18 km of Stage 14 - Click for larger view.

The last 30 km include three category 4 climbs. They are not long nor steep but they serve as excellent places to test your fellow escapees. The last one, Côte de la Croix-Rousse (1.8 km / 4.5 %), has its top just after the 10 km to go banner. The run-in from here is very easy and with the expected tailwind, a strong rider may be able to keep a chasing group at bay. The last 2 km are straight out on Avenue Jean Jaurès and it will be a high-speed sprint should a bigger group arrive together.

The Favorites Breakaway Candidates

On a stage like this one, you can’t really talk about favorites. Today’s profile has “breakaway” written all over it but of course there are some riders more likely to hit the right break than others. Classic specialists like Juan-Antonio Flecha, Lars Boom, Philippe Gilbert and Sylvain Chavanel will all have this stage red-circled in their road books but so will about 100 riders. Lars Bak is another rider who’s recently been very good at hitting the right breakaways. He won a stage in the Giro d’Italia last year and managed to get into - what seemed like - the right break this year on a day he had marked. I know he has this stage written down and I won’t be surprised to see him in the final break.

Other solid breakaway candidates are riders like Thomas Voeckler (multiple Tour de France stage winner), Pierrick Fedrigo (last year stage winner), Arthur Vichot (French Champion), Jan Bakelants (stage winner and former yellow jersey), Alexey Lutsenko (U-23 World Champion) and Simon Gerrans (stage winner and former yellow jersey).

With the long flat finish I think it’s important to be fast on the line. If you’re not strong enough to go solo on the last climb, you need to pack a solid sprint. Riders like Michael Albasini, Enrico Gasparotto, Tony Gallopin and Julien Simon are other good candidates with a fast finish but honestly, I could keep on naming possible winners for days. Take a look at the start list and mark the fast guys who’s strong on these kind of hills. You will end up with a long list of names and if you pick out a couple of riders, chances are you will have at least one in the final break.

If I had to put my money on only one rider tomorrow, it would Jan Bakelants. He’s in the shape of his life right now and he’s already won one stage in this year’s Tour de France. He managed to bridge the gap to the break with Pierre Rolland on the second Pyrenees stage and that shows his climbing legs are great too. Bakelants is good at hitting the right breakaways and he’s also kind of fast on the line. His morale is high and after taking it easy on the second part of the time trial, I think he’s ready to do whatever he can to cross the finishing line first in Lyon Saturday afternoon.

Of course, should it all end with a sprint in a reduced peloton Peter Sagan is the man to beat.

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 14:

Tour de France: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

As expected, it all ended in a bunch sprint on Stage 12 and that should be scenario again on Friday’s Stage 13. Let’s hope this superstitious combination won’t send more riders to the ground as ASO once again have made the final, well, shall we say “interesting” - more on that later.

The Route

Like Thursday’s stage, this is another flat one. There is a small category 4 climb with about 100 km to go but the 1.2 km of 4 % towards the top of Côte de Crotz will barely be noticed in the peloton. The intermediate sprint is located after 112.5 km of the stage and we will see the peloton speed up as usually, which should kill a breakaway’s chances of succeeding.

The route takes the riders southeast and that could make for interesting racing if the wind is strong. As it is now, it won’t be a factor though. With ‘only’ 173 km and a light tailwind, it will be a very fast stage and I can’t see a break making it. This is most likely the last stage for the sprinters before Paris and they simply can’t afford to miss out.

The final two kilometers of Stage 13.

The Finish

Looking at the profile, there seems to be a tough climb close to the line. That isn’t the case. The road does kick up a little but only for 2.5 km with an average of 2.6 %. This surely won’t be enough to drop the sprinters. The run-in towards the finishing line isn’t very complicated but again ASO have decided to spice it up with a couple of tricky corners on the last kilometer. First the peloton turns left in a roundabout, then right - onto a smaller road - then right again and finally left in a roundabout with 400 meters to go. These four corners mean it’s very important to have one or two leadout men left before the final stretch. The finishing line is placed on Rue Pelletier d’Oisy; a parallel road to Avenue du Tour de France which seems like a more logical choice? Oh well.

The Favorites

What Argos-Shimano and Marcel Kittel did on Stage 12 was simply outstanding. Without Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort delivered Marcel Kittel perfectly on the wheel of Mark Cavendish. Gert Steegmans did a great leadout for the Manxman and even though he seemed sure to take the win, Marcel Kittel managed to come around Cavendish on the final meters. Much like he on Stage 10, when Greipel seemed sure to win. Kittel is right now the fastest sprinter in the world and if Cavendish can’t beat him with a perfect leadout, it will be difficult to deny the strong German his 4^th stage win of this year’s Tour de France Friday afternoon. For the first time this Tour, Marcel Kittel is now the man to beat but I doubt he will crack under the pressure…

The sprint ended early for Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel on Stage 12. So far, they have been great at hitting the front at the right time but now it will be more than difficult. Sieberg and Henderson - two of Greipel’s most important leadout riders - both went down hard in the crash and like Veelers, they probably need a few days to get ready again. Furthermore, Jurgen Roelandts hurts his back again after another rider didn’t manage to break in time.

Omega Pharma Quickstep did everything right on Stage 12 but Cavendish simply didn’t have the legs to finish it off. Naturally he - and the team - will be eager to take revenge but against Super Kittel, it won’t be easy. Peter Sagan seems satisfied with getting third and fourth and I expect him to do that again in Saint-Amand-Montrond.

The Joker

As I said yesterday, I’m starting to run out of jokers to pick. I’ve already been through most of them and it seems like only Yohann Gene is left. Europcar have been trying to set him up for the sprint the last days and Gene is getting better and better. He has Kévin Reza to deliver him onto the right wheel and if he can stay out of trouble, he should be able to do Top10 again.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Yohann Gene

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 13:

Tour de France: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel will go head-to-head again and the tricky finish favors the Manxman.

The Route

Without a single categorized climb, there aren’t much to say about this stage. The 218 km from Fougères to Tours take the riders southeast into the country and if you had to skip one stage of this year’s Tour de France, this is probably the one to miss. The intermediate sprint is located with 52 km to go and this will most likely be the only interesting part of the stage so far. If the wind is strong enough some teams could try to split the peloton but I doubt it will happen. If so, it will be towards the intermediate sprint.

The Finish

Contrary to most of the stage, the finish is very difficult. For some reason ASO thought it was a good idea to put in not one but two 90° turns in the last kilometer. The first one comes with about 650 meters to go and the second one with only 450 meters to the line. This means it won’t be a power sprint like last time but it doesn’t undermine the importance of the leadout trains. The peloton will be stretched out significantly in these two right hand corners and you need to be among the first four or five riders into the first corner if you want to win this stage.

The Favorites

The leadout trains are again very important but the tricky finish favors Mark Cavendish. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are both best when delivered in high speed but that won’t be the case in Tours. With the final corner just 450 meters from the line, the ideal scenario would be to enter that corner in second position with one leadout rider in front. Omega Pharma Quickstep messed up last time with Steegmans and Cavendish and they will be eager to take revenge. Also, some idiot sprayed urine on Mark Cavendish in the time trial and if he can convert his rage into power, he will be very difficult to beat.

The final four kilometers of Stage 12. Click for larger view.

Lotto-Belisol have timed it very well the last couple of times with 3 or 4 riders in front with 1 km to go and if they can do that again this time, Greipel should be up for another podium spot. It’s not a sprint that favors Greipiel much but if he enters the last corner with only Greg Henderson in front of him, he should make it three German stage wins in a row.

The tricky final also seems good for Peter Sagan. Nobody in the professional peloton handles their bike like Sagan does and he’s not shy of pushing to get the right wheel when he has to. Like Cavendish, Sagan accelerates very quickly and even though he’s not as fast as Cavendish and Greipel, he should still be able to make Top3.

The Jokers

I think I’ve already mentioned all the joker candidates during the Tour so we are back to repeating a few. I’ve been very impressed by young Danny Van Poppel so far. He’s the youngest Tour debutant since WWII and almost two weeks into the race, he’s still going strong. His leadout man Kris Boeckmans had a bike problem in the final of Stage 10 and despite the crash in front of him, Van Poppel still managed to finish 9^th. Van Poppel has a fast acceleration and if he gets onto the right wheel in the final, he could very well make another top performance.

Also, look out for Cyril Lemoine. The French sprinter will be on home soil and in front of his family and friends, he will be extra motivated to do well. Lemoine knows an early breakaway may be doomed but I won’t be surprised if he tries a late attack. If not, expect Sojasun to set up Cyril Lemoine for the sprint. He should know the tricky finish better than anyone else.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel & Cyril Lemoine

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 12:

Tour de France: Stage 11 ITT Preview & Favorites

After a rest day and a stage for the sprinters, it’s now time to shake up the general classification again. The specialists have been trying to arrive as fresh as possible for this time trial while the GC riders will be more tired after the Pyrenees and that should show against the clock.

The Route

Starting out in Avranches the riders head south towards the first time check in Ducey after 9.5 km. It’s not really flat but it’s not very difficult either with many descents. This first part takes place with a strong tail wind and sets for a very fast start. After the checkpoint, the route turns west and this is where the road starts to kick up a little. Not much, but enough to require a change or rhythm.

Towards the second time check, we can expect a strong crosswind and without any kind of shelter from the wind, the pure climbers and other riders not strong against the clock, will be in big troubles.

The Finish

From the checkpoint in Courtils, there are 11 km to the finishing line. With 3 km to go the riders turn right - into the head wind - and continue straight out towards Mont-Saint-Michel. There is a 180° turn with about 500 meters to go before crossing the finishing line. The riders won’t enjoy this stage but for the TV-viewers if will be yet another spectacular day in the Tour.

The Favorites

Another spectacular place for a Tour de France stage to finish.

Without Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins in the race, there is really only one rider fitting the “Favorite” category. Tony Martin had a horrible crash on the first stage of the Tour but it doesn’t seem to trouble him too much anymore. At least not his performances on the bike. He did great in the team time trial with big pulls in the end (and that was only 3 days after his crash) and he seems very confident heading into this time trial. 

According to Tony Martin himself “anything but a stage win will be a huge disappointment”, so there you have it, Tony is the favorite.

Chris Froome will be interesting to follow as well. Before the Olympic Time Trial last year, he told me the flat route didn’t really suit him, but he still ended up taking the Bronze medal. Froome and Team Sky have had a couple of very tough stages in the Pyrenees and I doubt Froome will be able to challenge Tony Martin. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Froome makes Top3 again.

The Jokers

My outsider for this stage is the oldest Tour de France debutant in recent history of the race. Svein Tuft is a real powerhouse and like Tony Martin, he was the reason why his team did so well on Stage 4. GreenEdge won with less than second and that’s most likely thanks to this strong Canadian. Tuft has been saving energy - as much as you can in your debut Tour hitting the Pyrenees - the last days and he’s now hoping for another big result. Svein Tuft started out the season in a fantastic way when he won the time trial in Tour San Luis. Before Tour de France started, Tuft won the opening prologue in Tour de Slovenia and after the team time trial success, I think Tuft will do great today.

Another great candidate for a good result is Sylvain Chavanel. The French Champion will be eager to show off his jersey in the time trial and this is a perfect distance for Chavanel. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski could very well end up in the top end of the table and I wouldn’t be surprised if Omega Pharma Quickstep put at least three riders in Top10.

Click here for the starting order. First rider is Astana's Dmitriy Muravyev who starts at 10:28 CET. My joker Svein Tuft starts as number two at 10:30 and his time should be be a reference time for the rest of the riders. Tony Martin starts at 12:36 while Chris Froome is last rider on the ramp starting at 16:54.

Favorite: Tony Martin

Joker: Svein Tuft

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 11: