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After a
couple of hectic months, it’s now time to take a few days off before the Tour
de France starts.
I want to thank you for your kind response to the recent
previews. Right now I’m looking into how I can improve the previews for the
Tour. If you have any suggestions please leave a comment here or send an email.
My Overall
Preview of this year’s Tour de France will be online next week. If you can’t
wait that long, check out my first look at the Tour course when it was
released in October last year.
After eight
tough stages, it’s now time to settle the overall classification. Tour de
Suisse often ends with a time trial but never one like this.
Despite the
distance of just 26.8 km, the riders are in for a day full of pain. The profile
is extremely brutal with a final section of 10.3 km uphill with an average
gradient of 9 %. The first 16.5 km are flat so we can expect the riders to
start out on a time trial bike and then change to a road bike before the climb
starts.
The first
time check comes at the end of the flat part. This means that the fastest
riders at this point not necessarily will be the fastest in the end. Starting on the climb, the first 5.4 km have
an average of 8.5 % before reaching the second time check. From here, there are
4.9 km to the finishing line and the average gradient of 9.5 % will make for a
very hard finish.
Tour of
California had a similar time trial this year ending with a steep climb. Many
riders decided to change bike at the beginning of the climb but not Tejay van
Garderen who won the stage. In California the climb was only 2.6 km though, so
we should expect even van Garderen to make a bike change this time.
The young
American is also the big favorite for this stage. He decided to take his own
change on Stage 7 and not wait for Mathias Frank. Overall, Tejay van Garderen
is now 1:17 min after his teammate in yellow and he still has a change of
winning Tour de Suisse or at least make podium. It won’t be easy to take a
minute on Rui Costa but if anyone in this race can do it, it’s Tejay Van
Garderen.
The final 3 km of the stage. Very steep.
Fabian
Cancellara will be eager to take revenge from the opening time trial. The change
of wind most likely cost him the stage win but I doubt he will be among the
best this time. Cancellara will probably set best time at the first check point
but 10.3 km with 9 % is not his terrain. Not even against the clock.
Instead, we
should look to riders like Simon Spilak, Tanel Kangert, Janez Brajkovic and
Jean-Christophe Peraud. Brajkovic has been getting better and better during the
race and he seems to be ready for the Tour soon. The Slovenian rider has always
been good against the clock and I think he will test himself and do very well
in this time trial. Jean-Christophe Peraud is Ag2r’s designated Tour de France
captain and I also see him getting stronger every day. In Paris-Nice earlier
this year, Peraud distanced Tejay van Garderen with 20 seconds on the final
uphill time trial. The American is clearly stronger right now but it shows that
Peraud can be among the bests against the clock.
Another
strong candidate for the win is Cameron Meyer. He won the opening time trial
but many will say it was because the wind changed. Meyer is not a pure climber
but he’s been very solid in the mountains and sits 8th overall
before the stage. I think the Australian will be eager to show that he can also
win without a change of weather and I expect him to make podium on the stage.
Not in the overall classification though.
My joker is
Bauke Mollema. Many don’t see Mollema as strong time trialist but he’s actually
not bad at all. The course favors him with the long and steep climb and if he
can minimize his time loss on the flat part, he should be able to fight for the
overall win. It won’t be easy to beat Rui Costa with 34 seconds but don’t
forget Mollema’s time trial in Vuelta Pais Vasco last year. On a hilly and very
difficult course, Mollema took second place after Samuel Sanchez, beating World
Champion Tony Martin in the process. I also expect Thibaut Pinot to do well. He will lose time ont the flat part but like Mollema, it shouldn't be much more than he can take back on the climb.
Rui Costa
is right now the big favorite to win Tour de Suisse for the second year in a
row. It’s more or less his race to lose and it will be interesting to see how the
Portuguese copes with that pressure. Few - except for the Swiss fans - expect
Mathias Frank to keep Rui Costa behind him and I think that plays in Frank’s
favor. Despite starting the stage in yellow, he’s still the underdog. It’s
difficult to predict the outcome of a time trial like this one but I think it
will end with Rui Costa winning overall. BMC should be able to put at least one
rider on the final podium but who will it be?
This 8th
stage of Tour de Suisse seems like a good one for a breakaway to make it. The
GC favorites will be happy to get a quiet day before the final time trial and
for many teams this is the last chance to get a stage win in the race.
The stage
is 180.5 km long and we can expect a fast start despite a head win. After just
37 km the riders face the category 1 climb up to the Julierpass. The 6.8 km
towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 % and serve as an
excellent place for a breakaway to be established. After reaching the top, the
riders head north towards the finish town Bad Ragaz. It takes almost 60 km
before the riders are done with the long descent and afterwards it’s flat for
another 40 km before reaching the finishing line for the first time. From here,
they loop around Bad Ragaz for about 40 km. With 9.1 km to go it’s time for a steep
category 3 climb. It’s only 2.8 km long
but has an average gradient of 7.3 %. There is just 6.3 km to go from the top
of the climb and the descent is very fast. The last two kilometers towards the
finishing line are flat.
There are
two scenarios for this stage. In the first, a break gets away on the category 1
climb and makes it all the way. Naturally, the last climb will be a great place
to test your fellow escapees and a strong rider with most likely be able to
keep his gap if he gets away over the top. In the second scenario, a break gets
away but teams like Cannondale, BMC, Saxo-Tinkoff and GreenEdge work together
in order to catch them. I think the last climb is too hard for the pure
sprinters to stay up front. Riders like Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert, Matti
Breschel and Matt Goss seem like much better candidates. Sagan is without a
doubt the fastest of these but Gilbert must be eager finally to win in the
Rainbow Jersey. If he gets away on the final climb, he will be very difficult
to catch. Saxo-Tinkoff have been trying to set up Matti Breschel the last
couple of days and without having to work for Roman Kreuziger on this stage,
they can focus on the fast Dane. GreenEdge have a couple of riders for a stage
like this one. On a good day, Matt Goss is up there but if not, teammate Daryl
Impey and Michael Albasini look good.
Albasini is
also a good candidate for an early breakaway. He tried to get into the morning
break on Stage 7 and this is the last chance for Albasini to get a win on home
soil in this year’s Tour de Suisse. Albasini is strong uphill, good downhill
and very fast on the line. Another rider for a break is Martin Elmiger. IAM
Cycling haven't had much luck in this race so far and they need to finish in a
strong way. Elmiger became a father earlier in the race and the Swiss rider
will be motivated to hit the right break in order to dedicate a stage win to
his newborn daughter Julia.
The GC
contenders had an easy day on Stage 6 when the peloton decided to let Kolobnev,
Grabsch, Hayman and Rast stay away. What could have been a hectic final turned
out to be quiet day at the office but now it’s time to fight for the overall classification.
Stage 7 is
208 km long and includes four categorized climbs. The first 120 are rather flat
with just a one category 3 climb to overcome but after 130 km the road really
starts to kick up. The 6.2 km towards the top of this category 1 climb have an
average gradient of 7 % and we can expect BMC and Saxo-Tinkoff to set a high
pace. Mathias Frank looks very strong uphill and so does Roman Kreuziger. Personally,
I see Kreuziger as the strongest rider in the race right now. Still it’s worth
mentioning that Kreuziger is suffering a bit from his crash on stage 3. He hit
his shoulder and knee and especially the shoulder has been bothering a bit. If
he’s not feeling good, the other teams may try to distance him already on this
climb.
The next
climb starts after 155 km. This category 4 climb isn’t very steep and it
shouldn’t really bring any of the GC riders in difficulty. However, it is
important for the favorites to stay near the front since the final climb of the
day starts right after the descent. The first part of the climb has an average
gradient of just 4 % but it’s gets steeper after the second intermediate
sprint. The final 14.3 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 %.
The first 3.5 km are the steepest with an average of 10% and if Tejay van Garderen has a good
day, he could really rip the race apart here for Mathias Frank.
There are
9.3 km to go from the top of the last climb but the descent isn't very technical. Only the last part with seven hairpin corners
from 3 km to 2 km to go. The final 700 meters are flat but two 90° turns will
make the run in very difficult. If a small group arrives together, it’s
important to be first or second coming out of the last corner with just 300
meters to go.
Peter Sagan
was outstanding on the last mountain stage but I doubt he will repeat that
effort. The 3.5 km of 10 % on the final climb will most likely split up the
peloton significantly and I wouldn’t be surprised if only 10 riders were left
after this steep part. I think Tejay Van Garderen will be leading the group at this point and it
will be very difficult to break away.
One of the few
riders who can do it is Michele Scarponi. The Italian veteran crashed out of
the general classification on Stage 3 and he is now eager to take a win and
forget about all his bad luck. There aren’t any bonus seconds on the line in
this year’s Tour de Suisse so the other GC contenders won’t have to worry if
Scarponi manages to get away on the final climb. Lampre also have Diego Ulissi who
- despite a crash on Stage 6 - is in good shape right now. I think they will
try something with him and Scarponi on this stage.
I also
expect Andy Schleck to make a move. He’s slowly getting into shape and his
confidence is coming back too. During Stage 5, he even thought about doing the
final uphill sprint for a moment. He attacked from afar in Criterium
International and in Tour of California and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries
to get away already on the category 1 climb starting with 75 km to go. It’s
hard to say if Andy Schleck is strong enough to enough to keep a gap on the
final climb but since he’s not threat overall, the GC contenders don’t have to
chase him down.
As stated,
I think this stage is too hard for Peter Sagan to stay in front. Still, if he’s
not more than 30-45 seconds after the favorites on the top of the last climb,
he could very well catch up on the descent. It all depends on the race situation.
If a breakaway seems sure to the take win, Sagan don’t need to waste energy
staying up front. However if he’s in play for the stage win, he will probably
do whatever he can to win again. Sagan could also be a breakaway candidate…
Bauke
Mollema turned out to be the strongest riders uphill on the first mountain
stage. It will be interesting to see if he attacks again on this stage in order
to gain a little time before the last ITT. On paper, Rui Costa is the best time
trialist of the first five in the GC but don’t underestimate Mollema against
the clock. Right now Mollema is 1:08 min after Mathias Frank and I think he
needs to cut that in half if he wants to win overall. If Mollema is within 40
seconds of the yellow jersey (and that not being Rui Costa) before the final
time trial, I think he can go for the win. That means he needs to attack and
hopefully we will get another interesting stage finish Friday afternoon.
Before I
end this preview, I would like to point out Marcel Wyss. IAM Cycling had to say
goodbye to Heinrich Haussler after he crashed on Stage 6 and they are soon
running out of stages to win in their home race. Marcel Wyss is 36th
overall, almost nine minutes after Mathias Frank. The other day he attacked to
take a few KOM points “just in case”, as he said. This stage is very important
for the KOM jersey and I expect Wyss to take part in the morning breakaway. It
won’t be easy to keep the peloton at bay all day long but the lack of bonus
seconds means the favorites don’t need to go for the stage win.
Favorites:
Michele Scarponi & Bauke Mollema
Jokers:Andy Schleck & Marcel Wyss
For live coverage check out steephill.tv.
Tour de Suisse had a similar stage finish three years ago. Back then Robert Gesink won. In case you forgot, here is the video of stage:
On paper
this stage may look like a good one for a breakaway to make but the final part
isn’t as hard as it may seem. The profile shows two small climbs starting with
less than 30 km to go but they aren’t very steep.
The first
one, a 3 km long category 3 climb, has an average gradient of 6.8 % but with a
strong tail wind, the peloton will be able to keep a high speed. Reaching the
top there are still 5 km of false flat before the descent starts. The downhill
section isn’t very technical and it will be difficult to keep the peloton at
bay.
The road
starts to kick up again with 14 km to go but the two kilometers towards the
sprint aren’t steep at all. The descent only has one tricky hairpin corner and
when the riders turn right on Seestrasse, it’s straight out for almost 8 km
towards the finishing line. A lonely rider or a small group will have
difficulties keeping a gap with a strong cross/head wind alongside Lake Zürich and
I think we will see another bunch sprint.
There is a
small traffic island just before the road bends right with about 200 meters to
go. The turn is not as important as the sharp one on Stage 4 but if you need to
be among the first three in order to win.
Once again,
it’s hard not to pick Peter Sagan as the favorite. He won’t have any problems
on the hills and with a strong team to support him he will be difficult to
beat. Sagan didn’t managed to position himself well on Stage 4 and that cost
him the win. On Stage 5 he was in the right position but ran out of teammates
in the end. Sagan had to start his sprint too early and after two missed opportunities,
he must be eager to take revenge now.
It’s also a
good finish for a real power sprinter like John Degenkolb. With a head wind the
last 8 km it’s important not to hit the front too early and Degenkolb probably
has the best leadout train in the race. A couple of years ago Argos-Shimano’s
mantra was to get the best leadout train in the world and they are close to
succeeding. They didn’t time it well in the beginning of the season but
recently they have been looking very strong. It’s true they messed up a bit on
Stage, but I still think Degenkolb will be first rider into the last bend. Time
will tell if that’s enough to win.
Since this
stage is good for a power sprinter, it’s naturally also good for Alexander
Kristoff. As mention in the preview for Stage 5, the Norwegian is very strong
right now. He made it look easy when he beat Sagan and Démare on Stage 5 and
his moral is now sky high. Once again, it’s difficult to pick between the three
riders named above. Kristoff’s confidence is high now, Sagan is out for revenge
and Degenkolb must be eager to finally show himself. If I have to pick one, I’ll
go with Sagan again.
There are
many strong sprinters in this race and it’s difficult to pick a joker with a
chance to win. My pick this time is youngster Boy Van Poppel. He may not be
able to beat the best sprinters in this race but on a good day, he’s up there
fighting for podium. Van Poppel took 5th place on Stage 3 of Tour of
California and he seems to be in good shape right now ending 9th on
Stage 5. Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of fast guys in Tour de Suisse but
instead of sprinting for each other, they are now focusing on Van Poppel. Grega
Bole has been assigned as leadout for Van Poppel and if the young Dutchman gets
on the right wheel, he could very well make top5 if not more.
If it a breakaway makes it after all - though I doubt that - look out for Luis León Sanchez. The Spaniard is back after his short suspension and he's already in great shape. He attacked from a far and won the last stage of Belgium Tour last month and he could very well give a go in the final 25 undulating kilometers.
Peter Sagan probably didn’t read the road book for Stage 4 as he was caught up in the middle of the peloton heading into the last corner. He tried to make up for it but he went the wrong way around and almost crashed against the barrier. He still managed to finish 7th on the stage and I think he is eager for revenge.
Stage 5 ends with two loops on a 26.5 km long circuit. Each loop includes two categorized climbs, both with an average gradient of aprox. 5 %. The climbs are short and they probably won’t make a big selection in the peloton. Still, they will make life hard for the pure sprinters. Jens Voigt almost managed to keep the peloton at bay on Stage 4 and if a group of strong riders gets away on the final loop, it could make things very interesting.
I think this will end in a sprint and contrary to the finish of Stage 4, there aren’t any tricky corners towards the this time. The road book shows a couple of turns in the final three kilometer but it’s really more the road bending a bit than an actual corner. The last 500 meters kick up with 4 % towards the line but after 2.5 km straight out, I don’t think the incline favors Peter Sagan more than anybody else. The five climbs in the last
66 km favor Sagan but a power sprint like this is more in John Degenkolb’s wheelhouse. The German sprinter came to Tour de Suisse after a training camp in Sierra Nevada so he shouldn’t have problems with these category 4 climbs. Degenkolb wasn’t sure how his sprinting legs would respond after training in the mountains but with a 4th place in a finish that didn’t suit him, I see him as one of the big favorites for the win in Leuggern.
Alexander Kristoff is another rider this type of finish is good for. The big Norwegian is getting better every season and he's now hoping to shine in the Tour this summer. Kristoff won three stages in Tour of Norway last month and he also won the peloton’s sprint in GP Gippingen last week. Kristoff now knows some of the climbs and that will definitely help him in the final. In the Tour de France, Kristoff will be left alone to do the sprinting and he doesn’t have a lot of help in Tour de Suisse either. This is a good opportunity for him to show the team that he can cope with the pressure and win on his own.
Looking for a joker, I think we should look to breakaway candidates. Phillipe Gilbert is still gunning for his first victory in the Rainbow Jersey. The most important task for BMC right now is to keep Mathias Frank in yellow but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gilbert was given a free role. He tried a couple of times in Belgium Tour a few weeks ago and again on Stage 2 of this race. Gilbert is one of the best riders on these type of climbs and he’s very fast on the line too. I still doubt a breakaway will succeed but if any rider can make it on a route like this one, it’s Phillipe Gilbert.
It’s difficult to pick a favorite between Sagan, Degenkolb and Kristoff but if I had to pick one, it would be Sagan. Simply because it’s difficult to image him missing out two days in a row.
