Giro d'Italia: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

Stage 19 got cancelled completely and that means this is the last chance to change the overall classification. Vincenzo Nibali seems sure to win this Giro d’Italia but the final two spots on the podium are still up for grab.

Unfortunately, this stage too has been modified a lot and the first three big mountains have all been cancelled due to the bad weather. This leaves us with a 210 km long stage with only the final 25 km are kept as planned. A strong morning break over the big climbs would have had a good chance of making it to the line but with this new profile it all comes down to the final climb up to Tre Cime Di Lavaredo.

The first 187.6 km aren’t very challenging but hopefully we will get to see fire some firework already on the first climb up to Passo Tre Croci. This category 2 climb has a steady 7% gradient all the 8 km to the top and if the morning break hasn’t already been caught, this is a good place to finally rail them back in. As I wrote in the preview for Stage 19, I would like to see Lampre take charge and play out Niemiec early on. If he attacks on Passo Tre Croci, it would force BMC and Sky to work hard and without a strong team, Evans would quickly be isolated.

There are about 7 km from the top of Passo Tre Croci to the final climb begins. It starts with a steep kilometer of 10.6% with parts of 18%. Then there is short descent before the final 3 km kicks up with an average (!) gradient of 12.4%. There are parts of nearly 20% with two kilometers to go and the tiny climbers like Sergio Henao, Carlos Betancur and Domenico Pozzovivo will have a big advantage here.

The only leader’s jersey still up for grab is the White Jersey and with only two seconds between Rafal Majka and Carlos Betancur, we should be in for a great show on this final climb. Majka seems to flying right now but these steep percentages surely favors Betancur more than the strong Pole. I would imagine Domenico Pozzovivo to attack first and make the other riders work for the stage win. If they then catch Pozzovivo, Betancur will be ready to counter. Just like we saw it on the stage Uran won earlier in the race.

The final 3 km of the stage.

Samuel Sanchez came close the other day and he's still chasing a stage win that will see him join the club of stage winners in all the three Grand Tours. The steep final part isn't really in Sanchez' favor but he does seem very strong right now and he's always good in the last week.

This being the last mountain stage of the race, I doubt a morning breakaway will make it. The fight for second and third place overall are still so close that every bonus second count and Betancur also knows that he is faster than Majka on the line. Even if Betancur can’t drop Majka on the climb, he can still outsprint him and the take bonus seconds he needs. 

Many odd things have already occurred in this Giro and of course, it’s not impossible a morning break will make it. Androni have been in all the major breaks in this Giro d’Italia and I would expect riders like Jackson Rodriguz and Miguel Angel Rubiano to try again. Franco Pellizotti still aims at Top10 overall and with nothing to lose I think he will try to attack early on Passo Tre Crocil.

Movistar have been extremely strong the last week and even though their most important task now is to secure Beñat Intxausti’s Top10 place, I’m sure they will try to take their fifth stage win. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada and Juan José Cobo are all good contenders for an early break and I think at least one of them will make it.

Last, I need to mention Team Colombia. They came to the Giro with high hopes for this final week but with all the big mountains being cancelled out, they haven’t really had a chance to show their strength. Darwin Atapuma is getting better and better and so is Fabio Duarte. The little Colombian have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and I’m sure he will try again on this stage. Duarte is good on the steep percentages and together with Atapuma, Colombia have a dangerous duo for the final climb. Also, the Colombian Sports Minister, Andres Botero, will join the team for the final two stages and if the riders weren’t motivated enough already, this should give them the extra edge.

Favorites: Carlos Betancur & Domenico Pozzovivo

Top 3 Pick: Rafal Majka

Jokers: Fabio Duarte / Franco Pellizotti / José Herrada

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 20:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

The stage has been cancelled!

Due to bad weather, yet another mountain stage has been modified. The Giro organizers had to cancel both Gavia and Stelvio and replace them with Passo del Tonale and Passo Castrin Hofmahdjoch.  These are not nearly as tough as Gavia and Stelvio but they will provide an early selection.

The stage starts with a short descent and then it’s time for Passo del Tonale. It’s only a category 2 climb but its 8.3 km have an average gradient of 7.5% and the riders chasing the KOM jersey will have to attack early. Stefano Pirazzi seems to have the competition under control but he can’t afford to miss the morning break and I expect him and Jackson Rodriguez, Robinson Chalapud and Giovanni Visconti to get away on Passo del Tonale.

Vincenzo Nibali destroyed the rest of the peloton on the uphill time trial and he now has his stage win in the bag. Of course he would like to take another one but I doubt he will use up his team just to chase down a morning breakaway. At this point in the Grand Tours, the riders just around Top10 normally try to attack from a far in order to move up a few spots. Thomas De Gendt did it last year and that almost gave him the overall win. I don’t think anybody can threaten Nibali in this race but the last two podium spots are definitely up for grab. Rigoberto Uran, Cadel Evans and Michele Scarponi will most likely wait to the final climb but it would be interesting to see Lampre send Przemyslaw Niemiec up the road early.

Niemiec asked Scarponi earlier this week what he would have to do in order to take the Pink Jersey and Scarponi told him that he should attack from a far and not just wait until the final kilometer. A Top5 place overall will be a big result for Niemiec but since Lampre have both Niemiec and Scarponi in Top5 right now, they should try something spectacular and at least get one rider on the podium.

Another strong Pole with his eyes on a stage win is Rafal Majka. Bjarne Riis had big plans for Majka for last year’s Giro d’Italia but due to a knee injury, Majka never got to start the race. This year, Majka is eager to show himself and after the best time trial of his career he is not 6^th overall. Majka also took back the White Jersey from Carlos Betancur and even though he says it’s not a priority, I’m sure he will do everything in order to keep it. The big goal for Saxo-Tinkoff is still a stage win and I think Majka will give them one in these final two mountain stages. Rafal Majka is 6:45 min after Vincenzo Nibali so he won’t be the first rider Nibali starts chasing down. He will however be the first rider Carlos Betancur will counter. The White Jersey is Betancur’s biggest target this season and he is just two seconds after Majka before the stage. I expect a great dual between the two climbers on the final climb. A dual that very well could turn out to be a dual for the stage win as well.

Val Martello Martelltal - 22.4 km / 6.4% avg.

The final climb is 22.4 km long and it has an average of 6.4%. The first 6.5 km are steep with 8%. Then there is a short descent followed by 8 km uphill with 7% average. With 6 km to go the climb kicks up with 14% and this will be a good place to test the competition. Hereafter it’s ‘flat’ for about 5 km before the final 1.5 km kicks up with 14% towards the line. The steep hairpin turns will be great for an explosive rider like Betancur, so expect him to put a couple of strong attacks towards the line.

Movistar are having a great Giro d’Italia with four stage wins and the Pink Jersey and I wouldn’t be surprised if they took another one here. Eros Capecchi and José Herrada are great riders for an early breakaway, Capecchi earlier pointed to this stage as his favorite, and Juan José Cobo is also a good pick. Of course they will need some to protect Beñat Intxausti but a morning break without any of the three mentioned will surprise me.

It’s difficult to pick 1 favorite with so many strong riders so instead I’ll make two groups.

Favorites: Carlos Betancur / Rafal Majka / Vincenzo Nibali

Breakaway: Eros Capecchi / Fabio Duarte / Francesco Manuel Bongiorno

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 19:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

It’s uncertain what the following two big mountain stages will look like so the GC riders need to take as much time as possible in this uphill time trial.

Many talk about this stage as a ‘mountain time trial’ but that isn’t really accurate. It’s uphill yes, but it’s nothing like the mountains time trials we have seen in the past on Plan de Corones or Alpe d’Huez. The first 1.5 km are flat and then the climb starts with 6.6% average for the following 7.5 km. From here on it’s almost flat for 5 km with a little descent and a short ascent and this is where time trial specialists will be able to gain a lot of time on the tiny climbers.

The final 6.4 km are uphill with an average gradient of about 7% and parts of 10% with 5 km to go. It’s important to have something left in the tank for this final part of the stage and this late in the race, I’m sure we will see some surprising results.

The big favorite for the stage win is Vincenzo Nibali. He has been the best rider in the mountains so far and generally the strongest rider in the race. He did great in the first long time trial when he took 4^th place and without Wiggins, Nibali is the man to beat. Cadel Evans is another one of the contenders for the stage win but he if he couldn’t beat Nibali in a long ‘flat’ time trial, I don’t see him beating Nibali uphill either. Both Evans and Nibali have been out training on the course earlier this year and both agree that it’s going to be a high pace start of the climb. The riders with big engines who are good on the uphill parts will be able to do great in this time trial and I think Team Blanco will do well.

The Dutch team have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and they really want that stage win that will save their Giro d’Italia. Robert Gesink was close the other day and so was Wilco Kelderman the day before that. Both Gesink and Kelderman are strong against the clock - especially with so many uphill kilometers - and together with Stef Clement, who took 5^th place in the first time trial, they have three very strong contenders for the stage win.

My personal outsider for the win is Dario Cataldo. He started out great with the win in the team time trial but then he got sick. It took many days for Cataldo to get better but now he finally seems to be back at this best. He’s been good in the mountains the last couple of days helping out Uran and Henao but he’s also been able to save himself for this stage. Cataldo is the Italian Time Trial Champion and he will be eager to show off that jersey in the Giro. Winning may be too much to ask of Cataldo after his sickness but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did a great stage and made Top3. The favorites have been testing each other the last couple of days in horrible weather conditions and anyone who has been able to save some energy will have an advantage on this stage.

For other outsiders look to Ramunas Navardauskas and Tanel Kangert. Both are in the shape of their life and good against the clock. The same goes for Giovanni Visconti. He has already won two stage in this Giro d’Italia but that doesn’t mean he’s done winning. Visconti has never been better than right now and with his newfound strong mentality, he should have what it takes to win time trial soon. The last days’ impressive efforts will not favor him but he should be in for another good performance.

Favorite: Vincenzo Nibali

Top3 Pick: Cadel Evans

Jokers: Dario Cataldo / Stef Clement / Ramunas Navardauskas

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 18:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

First of all, congratulation to Beñat Intxausti on an amazing stage win. It looked good for our picks with Rodriguez, Herrada & Capecchi in the break but Katusha and Radioshack started to get protect their GC riders. Anyway, let’s move on to the stage in hand.

The final of Stage 17 is very similar to the one on Stage 16 but this time the first 192 km are pancake flat. With 21.4 km to go the day’s only climb, Crosara starts. It’s only a category 4 climb but like with Andrate (cat3) on Stage 16, the category means nothing. Crosara is 5,3 km long and the first 4 km have an average gradient of 8,1% with parts of 12%. On paper, this may look like a stage for Mark Cavendish but there are only 16 km to go from the top of Crosara and if the GC riders decide to test each other again, the sprinters can kiss this stage goodbye.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a morning break makes it all the way and that means we have to look to opportunistic riders once again. Vacansoleil-DCM don’t have a sponsor for the next season after both Vacansoleil & DCM recently decided not to renew their contracts. The Dutch team are good at hitting the right breaks and especially Marco Marcato will be motivated to do well on this stage. This is Marcato’s first Giro d’Italia and with the stage finish near his hometown, he will do everything he can in order to give his fans something to cheer for. Marco Marcato knows the Crosara climb better than most of the riders in the race and I’m sure he will show himself in the final.

There are only 16 km to go from the top of Crosara.

Another rider who will eager to show himself is Marco Canola. You might remember Canola from Stage 5, when he ended up alone in front on the last kilometer after the big crash. Canola didn’t have the strength to keep John Degenkolb behind him but he showed on Stage 13 that he copes well with the final climbs and with his fast finish, he could be a good outsider for the stage win.

Vini Fantini seemed to be in a perfect position on Stage 16 but despite having Di Luca and Rabottini in front, they ended up as the big losers after Santambrogio had an off day. Santambrogio lost 2:24 min and without teammate Oscar Gatto it would have been a lot more. Gatto chased like a possessed and if he has the same kind of legs on this stage, he will be very difficult to beat.

Once again, you can’t really talk about favorites so I’ll do like yesterday and leave you with the following riders as my picks:

Marco Marcato

Oscar Gatto

Marco Canola

Fabio Felline

Fabio Duarte

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 17:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

On paper, this looks like a good stage for another breakaway to make it all way. Giovanni Visconti managed to keep the favorites behind him on Stage 15 and despite a tough climb towards the end, I think a break will make it again.

The stage starts with a 12 km descent from Télégraphe before the riders take on Mont Cenis, this time from the side the descended on Stage 15. That means the climb is only 10 km long but it still has an average gradient of 7%. The race got neutralized on Mont Cenis last time but hopefully we will get to see attacks from the very beginning this time. Stefano Pirazzi & Giovanni Visconti now leads the fight for the blue KOM jersey and even though both must be tired from Sunday’s effort, they need to stay alert and maybe attack again. Actually, looking at the stage profile, this is another very good stage for Visconti. If he’s ready again, he could make it two in a row.

Team Colombia and Androni have been very active, especially in the mountains, and with both Jackson Rodriguez and Robinson Chalapud fighting for the KOM jersey, I would imagine them to ride aggressively again on this stage. Rodriguez hasn’t been getting much out of his efforts so far in the race but if he manages to get in the morning break, this could be his big day. He’s very strong uphill and also fast on the line in a reduced group.

After the top of Mont Cenis, it’s downhill for 25 km before a flat stretch of 120 km. With 23.3 km to go the last climb of the day, Andrate, starts. It’s only a category 3 climb,but its 6.2 km have an average gradient of 8% and parts of 13% halfway to the top. There are 17.5 km to go from the top of Andrate and after a technical descent, the last 8 km are flat towards the line. The last few kilometers are tricky with sharp turns and parts of paves, so a lonely rider will have a good chance of making it all the way with a small gap on the final kilometers.

Andrate. 6,2 km with an average gradient of 8%

As said in the beginning, I think this is another day for a breakaway. It’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this one, but looking at the last few days in the mountains I see many of the Movistar riders with good legs. I’ve already mentioned José Herrada and Eros Capecchi a couple of times during this Giro d’Italia and I think this stage is perfect for both riders. Herrada has been attacking the last couple of days while Capecchi has been in the peloton looking after Beñat Intxausti. I’m sure both will try to get away on the Mont Cenis, and especially Capecchi will favor a technical descent before the line.

Team Blanco have launched ‘Plan B” after Robert Gesink lost his chances of a good overall place and they showed on Stage 15 that they are prepared to attack whenever they get the chance. Gesink, Kelderman and Garate all tried to get away on Galibier and I think it’s now time for Stef Clement to show the jersey. Clement has had a good Giro so far. He’s climbing very well and his fifth place in the time trial showed he’s in great shape. Blanco are eager to show their potential in the fight for a new sponsor and without a rider for the GC, Stef Clement can now try his luck on his own. It won’t be easy for him to drop strong climbers on Andrate but if he can hang on to the front, he can launch an attack on the flat part and then he’ll be difficult to catch.

Vini Fantini finally got their stage win with Mauro Santambrogio on Stage 14 and they will be eager to take another one. Danilo Di Luca is ‘only’ 14:44 minutes after Nibali in the GC and therefore I doubt the other teams will let him in the Top10 fight again with an early attack. Stefano Garzelli on the other hand is coming into shape and if he’s up for it, he could be a dangerous outsider for the stage win. The same goes for Oscar Gatto, even though I think the climbs are too tough for him. Still, should it all come down to the last climb, Di Luca is a good pick for the win.

There aren’t any favorites for stages like this, so instead of tipping ‘Favorite’ and ‘Top3’, I’ll leave you with these riders as my personal picks for the stage win.

Jackson Rodriguez

Eros Capecchi

Stef Clement

Stefano Garzelli

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 16:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Stage 14: The stage that disappeared - Video & Photos

Due to the bad weather, we only got to see the final 350 meters of yesterday’s Stage 14. Mauro Santambrogio won in front of Vincenzo Nibali who kept the Pink Jersey and un case you haven’t seen it yet, here are the video highlights and photos from the finish line.

Betancur, cold and disappointed after yet another podium spot.

Scarponi lost time again. Reaching the podium won't be easy.

The podium is also gone for Gesink. He lost 4 min in the rain.

Surrounded by 6 teammates, Cavendish made it to the line.

The Colombian ninjas are now ready for the big mountains.

Santambrogio finally got to celebrate a stage win in this Giro.

Nibali seems to have everything under control so far.

You'll find more photos from Stage 14 by Italian photographer Davide Calabresi right here.

Giro d'Italia: Stage 15 Preview & Favorites

UPDATE: The new stage profile with the finish line next ot the Marco Pantani monument. 

We didn’t see much of Stage 14 on Jefferau, but hopefully we’ll get to see a good show on Galibier. Despite bad weather the stage is - in this moment - set to take place as planned, only with the final 4 km cancelled. That means that the stage will finish at the Marco Pantani monument. A suiting place for a finish line for one of the biggest mountain stages in this year’s Giro d’Italia.

The weather can still change many times over night but looking at the profile as it is now, I think a breakaway will make it. Luca Paolini and Sonny Colbrelli almost made it all the way on Stage 14 and that was despite a the cancellation of Sestriere. I think many in the peloton will be happy if a break can get away early on and with 39 KOM points on the menu, I think it’s safe to say that Stefano Pirazzi will be eager to get away on Col du Mont Cenis.

Col du Mont Cenis - Click for larger view

Other riders who will be targeting a breakaway are the Colombians. They came to the Giro with big plans for this stage and even though Darwin Atapuma is feeling sick, I think Team Colombia will show their strength. Fabio Duarte is getting better and better after his early crash and I would expect him to get in the morning break. Robinson Chalapud is chasing the KOM jersey but after his crash on Stage 14, I doubt he’ll be up for it already. Instead, look to Jarlison Pantano who already have been in numerous breaks this Giro.

Yesterday I said that Stefano Garzelli was targeting Stage 14 and he was, but without Sestriere it didn’t really make much sense for the climbers to attack early. Instead Garzelli took it easy - he finished 20 minutes behind teammate Santambrogio - and I think he saved his energy for Galibier. His late friend, teammate and mentor Marco Pantani had one his best days on the bike on Galibier - when he won the Tour in 1998 - and winning on this climb will definitely be very special for Stefano Garzelli in his last Giro d’Italia.

This is also a special stage for AG2R. The French team have two of the best climbers in the race in Domenico Pozzovivo and Carlos Betancur and they will be eager finally to take a stage win, especially on French soil. Hubert Dupont was with Pozzovivo and Betancur at the beginning of the final climb on Stage 14 and I think he will try to get in the morning break. First of all with eyes on the stage win but also to help Betancur or Pozzovivo on the final climb if the break gets caught. I know Pozzovivo is aiming at this stage and being 5 minutes behind Vincenzo Nibali in the GC, he won’t be the first rider Nibali starts chasing down with a late attack.

Col du Télégraphe & Col du Galibier
Last 4 km are cancelled.

With the new finish next to the Pantani monument, the last 4 km will be the steepest of the climb with an average gradient around 8%. The climb kicks up with 17% on the final 500 meters and this is surely is the place to put in a final attack. Mauro Santambrogio and Vini Fantini finally got their stage win on Jefferau but that doesn’t mean they will stop trying. Santambrogio is one of the best climbers on the steep percentages and together with Betancur and Pozzovivo - and Nibali of course - he is one of the big favorites.

I think a breakaway will make it this time but if not, I except one of the tiny AG2R climbers to take the win.

Favorite: Domenico Pozzovivo

Top3 Pick: Mauro Santambrogio

Jokers: Fabio Duarte / Stefano Garzelli / Hubert Dupont

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 15:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv