Giro d’Italia: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

First of all, I’m glad to see my joker for Stage 6, Edwin Avila, not letting me down and taking 11^th place in the sprint. Impressive by the young Colombian!

Now let’s look at Stage 7. This stage has ’breakaway’ written all over it. The profiles looks like bread knife and this leg breaking stage will tire out many riders before the demanding time trial on Saturday. Bradley Wiggins will probably hope for a quiet stage but for guys like Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal, this is a good opportunity to gain a little time before the expected massacre against the clock.

Looking at the stage, the first two names I thought of was Giovanni Visconti and Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez. Visconti is an expert in these kind of stages and Rubiano knows these roads very well. Troffeo Matteotti starts and ends in Pescara and Rubiano has taking podium twice within the last three years. The Colombian climber spent most of Stage 6 as the very last man in the peloton, where he got some TV-time for amazing bike skills avoiding the big crash with 30 km to go. Visconti also found his way to the TV-cameras at that crash, but unfortunately for sitting on the ground with a sore hip. The former Italian Champion went to hospital after the stage and even though nothing is broken, he may find it too difficult to perform at this best level. That being said, if Giovanni Visconti is ready after his crash, he's one of the biggest favorites for this stage.

There are four KOM sprint within the last 50 km and it will be huge surprise if Stefano Pirazzi doesn’t try something on this stage. He’s in great shape right now, he’s targeting the KOM jersey and he’s not afraid of attacking at any point.

The steep parts of 20% around Chieti are known from Tirreno-Adriatico and Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali always do well here. There are still 35 km to go from the top of the last hills in Chieti, but the final two categorized climbs are very steep too - 18% and 14% - and if Hesjedal, Nibali and others want to gain time on Wiggins, this is where they have to attack.

I think the following list of riders will be good candidates for a morning breakaway. Especially Matteo Rabottini will be eager to show himself in his hometown Pescara. The time shows how many minutes they are after Luca Paolini in the GC:

Rabottini	08:56
Locatelli	09:09
Rubiano	09:19
Dupont	09:39
Pantano	10:26
Salerno	11:35
Marcato	14:15
Rodriguez	17:15
Georges	25:49
Pozzato	28:10
Gatto	32:56
Lastras	37:14
Taborre	37:39

Katusha will be eager to keep the Pink Jersey one more day and it’s not impossible that the morning break will get caught on the finals climbs - even though I doubt it if it includes strong riders. Should it end with a fight between the GC riders anyway,  look out for Cadel Evans and Mauro Santambrogio. I said in my Overall Preview that Cadel Evans would take a stage in this year’s Giro, and this could very well be that stage.

Also, look pay attention to Danilo Di Luca. The self-proclaimed “Killer” seems to be in good shape already and if it all comes back together, he’s definitely one the peloton can’t let get too much of a gap. Vini-Fantini have a team full of good riders for these kind of stages and they should be represented with strong riders in the front of the race at all time during this stage.

Thursday, I talked with team owner of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela and Giro Expert on this site last year, Gianni Savio about this stage and here are his thoughts:

“This year, the Giro d’Itlaia is different. Usually, the peloton lets the breaks get away and fight for the win, but with everybody wanting to gain seconds, it’s not happening this year. Anyway, we - like many others -want to attack on this stage. It’s a very difficult stage and we know it won’t be easy to get the stage win. There are many teams without a GC leader and they will all try to take a stage win. Our plan is to protect Pellizotti & Rosa and keep them in the front of the peloton and to attack with riders like Rubiano, Rodriguez and Felline.”

Favorite: Cadel Evans
Top3: Giovanni Visconti

Jokers: Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez / Stefano Pirazzi / Danilo Di Luca 

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 7:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia update with Gianni Savio

Gianni Savio at the Giro d'Italia 2012.

Team owner of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela and Giro Expert on this site last year, Gianni Savio, here gives his view on the first part of this year’s Giro d’Italia. The Androni team have been very active the last couple of stages and with a second place to Fabio Felline on Stage 4, Gianni Savio is satisfied with his team so far.

“I think we can be very satisfied with what we have done in this first week. Our philosophy is always to honor the race and the last three days [stage 3- 5] we have had a rider in the big break. No other teams have done that. Felline was close the other day and overall, we are racing very well. Today (Stage 6) we change the tactic. Now it’s all about Mattia Gavazzi. We hope and believe he can make the podium in this stage, even though we also now that there are many good sprinters in the race”.

Looking at the overall classification, team leader Franco Pellizotti now sits in 25^th position and Gianni Savio hopes the Italian Champion won’t lose too much time in the demanding time trial on Saturday.

“So far Pellizotti has been doing fine. He is waiting for his terrain, the mountains, and we still hope he will make Top10 overall. He is not a time trialist, but I’m sure he will defend himself well on Saturday. If he can lose less than three minutes to Bradley Wiggins, I think it’s a good result. This time trial will give us the first photo of the Giro and it will be very interesting to see the fight between the two big favorites, Wiggins and Nibali.

Also, our young rider Diego Rosa is doing very well. He’s in a good position in the general classification [34^th - 2:24 min down] and he’s still a contender for the white jersey”.

In today’s Gazzetta dello Sport there were rumors of Fabio Felline and Franco Pellizotti leaving the team next year. According to the Italian paper, Felline has been talking with Quickstep and Cannondale but for now, it’s only rumors.

“I read the article this morning and I asked him [Felline] about it. He told me; “No, no, no, no. It’s not true”, so I think it’s just journalists trying to make news”, Gianni Savio explains.

Last year I broke the news that Gianni Savio was thinking about upgrading to a World Tour status within the next couple of years and that plans is still intact. Still, Savio makes clear that he thinks that the system needs to change.

“I think the philosophy always should be to have a good level of cycling. Cycling must not only be a business, but a sport with a business. Right now, we see a lot of financially powerful teams, but without any real results. I think we should have a First and Second division, like in football for example. It shouldn’t be that just because you have a big budget you are on the World Tour. You need results too”.

Gianni Savio’s Wold Tour project has to do with the Venezuelan government and he think that they will increase the budgets for the coming seasons. Main sponsor Androni also shows that they want to continue the partnership.

For more Gianni Savio, stay tuned for the big preview of Stage 7 where Savio will give his thoughts on a very difficult and leg breaking day in the Giro.

Giro d'Italia: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After three tough days, it’s now time for the sprinters. It’s a short stage, only 169 km, and it’s pancake flat. Pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish, Mattia Gavazzi and Francesco Chicchi have had some very difficult days on the bike, but now they have a chance to get their saying. Especially Chicchi and Gavazzi will be eager to get a good result after they both crashed on Stage 1.

The stage ends with two laps of 16.3 km in Margherita di Savoia. Stage 5 ended up in a big crash in the last corner with 1 km to go, but with the last three kilometers straight out this time, we should get a regular power sprint with all the big leadout trains lining up their guns.

Mark Cavendish is the big favorite. He showed on Stage 1 that he wins just as easily with a broken leadout as he does when everything goes smoothly, and it’s difficult not to see him winning this stage too. He will be able to rely on Steegmans and Trentin for the final leadout and even though Argos, GreenEdge or Cannondale ends up in front with 1 km to go, Cavendish still has a kick a level or two above the rest.

Being a power sprint, naturally John Degenkolb and Elia Viviani will have a good chance with their strong leadout trains. Still, I think guys like Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi will have a solid chance of taking Top3. Bouhanni didn’t look good on Stage 3 and 4, but he was right up in the mix on Stage 5 before getting hold up by the crash. The French champion is a former boxer and he shows that on the bike too when fighting for the right wheel in the sprint. Bouhanni doesn’t have the same kick as Cavendish, but he’s very fast on the final meters and he can now turn his frustration from Stage 5 into motivation for Stage 6.

For Stage 1, I picked Giacomo Nizzolo for a spot in Top3 - he ended 4^th - but allergies could prevent the fast Italian from being at his best. The weather forecast shows a sunny day in the saddle and riders suffering from allergies like Nizzolo and Phinney won’t have it easy in such a power sprint.

The first sprinter to get dropped on Stage 5 was Mattia Gavazzi. He knew the climb was too steep for him and he didn’t even try to hang onto the peloton when he lost ground. Gavazzi is in great shape right now and I think he will give Androni another podium spot in this year’s Giro d’Italia in this stage. Gavazzi believes he has the speed to beat Mark Cavendish right now, and even though I won’t say the same, I do believe he will put up a good fight.

It’s difficult to pick a joker for the sprint stages this year since all the sprinters in race are solid Top3 candidates. Instead, I would like to point out Edwin Avila. The young Colombian isn’t well known - yet -  but I think he can surprise a little in this Giro. I’m not saying he’s going to win a bunch sprint, or even making Top3, but he can definitely aim for a place in Top10. Like many others, he didn’t get a chance to test his legs on Stage 1 due to the crash, but he was in the wheel of Chicchi (in the wheel of Cavendish) and that shows he’s ready. Teammate Leonardo Duque will probably also try to get in the mix and together the two Colombians should be able to get a good result for the team.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top 3 picks: Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi

Joker: Edwin Avila

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 6:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

For the third day in a row, we have an undulating stage ahead of us. It’s another stage of more than 200 km and like the previous two, the first long stretch is flat before two climbs near the finish. The first one, Montescaglioso is only a category 4 climb but its 4.5 km with an average gradient of 5,6% - and parts of 10% - will thin out the peloton before the final.

In 2003, Marco Pantani attacked on Montescaglioso but despite a strong effort from the Italian legend, which made most of the sprinters lose ground, it all ended up in a bunch sprint. The profile of this stage looks a lot like the one the Giro organizers used 10 years ago and don’t be surprised if it ends in another sprint despite the hilly finish.

The final climb isn’t very steep and strong sprinters with a bit of climbing legs like Degenkolb, Ventoso and Goss should put their teams in front and try to drop some of the pure sprinters. The climb ends with 4.8 km to go and from here on it’s straight out with a bit of descending before the last kilometer kicks up with 2.8% all the way to the line. GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano both saved energy on Stage 4 for this stage and this could very well end up with a fight between Goss and Degenkolb.

This is also a great finish for riders like Pozzato, Felline, Gatto and Battaglin. Originally, I had Enrico Battaglin down for a “joker” spot on this stage but after his impressive win on Stage 4, I doubt he can be considered a joker anymore. These kind of climbs aren’t too tough for the young Italian and everybody saw how fast he is on the line Tuesday afternoon. Teammate Sacha Modolo might fancy this stage too and together with Battaglin, Bardiani really have a very strong duo for Stage 5.

The way I see it, the final climb isn’t hard enough for the favorites to test each other and with only a few sprint stages this year, the sprinters’ teams should be able to keep it together. Quickstep will probably try to take the lead in order to keep a pace Mark Cavendish is comfortable with, but Stage 6 seems like a better option for the Manxman. That being said, of course Cavendish will do everything he can in order to take another stage win as soon as possible. McEwen crossed the line first back in 2003 and if Cavendish can get back to the peloton after Montescaglioso, he’s the man to beat.

It’s not easy picking a favorite for a stage like this one. A break getting away on the final 10 km could easily make it to the line, but if teams like Movistar and Bardiani don’t have anyone in the break, it will probably end like in 2003. Still, the chances of Movistar being in the break are not bad. Giovanni Visconti is gunning for the Pink Jersey and even though he’s 52 seconds down, a 20 seconds time bonus for winning would bring him close if he gets away from the peloton.

Lampre haven’t had much luck so far in this Giro d’Italia. Roberto Ferrari was caught behind the crash on Stage 1, they had problems staying together in the TTT and then Michele Scarponi crashed on Stage 3. Their luck could change on this stage if Filippo Pozzato has a good day. Pozzato showed great shape in Tour of Turkey and after a disappointing Spring Season, he now has a chance to take revenge.

Favorite: John Degenkolb

Top3 Pick: Francesco Ventoso

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato & Giovanni Visconti

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 5:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Stage 4 is another very long day in the saddle, 244 km in total, and one could argue that the first - flat - 190 km are a bit too much. Anyway, like on Stage 3 a break will most likely get clear early on and the stage won’t really get interesting until the last 50 km.

This is where the category three climb, Vibo Valentina, starts with an average gradient of 6% the first couple of kilometers before it evens out a bit. After a ‘flat’ part, the climb kicks up with 6-7% towards the top. There are still 40 km to go from the top of Vibo Valentina but only 20 km to the beginning of the final climb, Croce Ferrata. This category 2 climb stretches over 12 km with an average gradient of 5.6% and parts of 10% in the middle. There are 6.7 km to the finishing line from the top of Croce Ferrata and it’s not impossible that a small group of even a single strong rider can keep the peloton at bay if they get a gap over the top.

The first 3-4 km are downhill on narrow and twisting roads and with 3 km to go the road kicks up for about 500 meters. The last kilometer is flat but narrow roads and parts of paves is definitely in the favor of a break making it to the line.

Stage 3 showed us that Ryder Hesjedal means business in this race. He wants to win overall with number 1 on his back and he really animated the race both uphill and downhill. While everybody else was struggling Hesjedal said he didn’t even find it hard. The final climb on Stage 4 may not be hard enough to make a real selection but if Hesjedal and others want to shake Team Sky - who didn’t seem to be in control in the final on Stage 3 - they may try attacking again. The possibilities of a break making it are not bad, but it’s clear to everyone that the GC contenders won’t wait to the big mountains before testing each other. Therefore, I think one of the team leaders will take the stage win in Serra San Bruno.

Except for Ryder Hesjedal and Vincenzo Nibali, Mauro Santambrogio looked very strong on Stage 3. He didn’t make the cut when Garmin first attacked with three riders, but he quickly bridged the gap all by himself. Santambrogio also made it to the front when Hesjedal attacked on the downhill section with Paolini and Agnoli and to me, Mauro Santambrogio is the big favorite for this stage. He has been in outstanding shape since Tirreno-Adriatico - two months ago - and as I fear he may fade out in the last week, he needs to get his stage win soon. There aren’t many riders who can drop Santambrogio uphill these days and since he’s fast on the line too, I feel confident picking him as my favorite.

On paper, this stage looks perfect for Paolo Tiralongo. He’s strong uphill and also very fast in a reduced group. Unfortunately, Tiralongo crashed on Stage 3 and hit his knee, and I’m sure he will be more concerned about healing up before the mountains than attacking with a sore knee this early in the race. Instead, look to Domenico Pozzovivo. He won a similar stage in last year’s Giro (the stage to Lago Laceno) after he attacked and got away on the final climb and he knows this stage finish very well. Pozzovivo is already 1:41 min down in the general classification and even though the favorites know that they can’t let him get too much of a gap, he probably won’t the first rider they’ll chase down.

Teammate Carlos Betancur is at the same time in the GC and like Santambrogio, Betancur has also been in good shape for a while now. I think he will manage to stay sharp the whole Giro, but naturally he should target a stage win if he gets the chance. Betancur was one of the many riders crashing on Stage 3 but he seems to be okay. He has a kick uphill like few riders right now and even though there are still 6,7 km to from the top, he could make it all the way on a good day.

Luca Paolini will most likely lose the Pink Jersey already on this stage and that means Bradley Wiggins will take the lead unless one of his nearest rivals win. Katusha have been doing great so far in this race and even though Paolini loses the jersey, they may just keep it anyway. Confused? Let me explain. Giampaolo Caruso has been in great shape the last month and this is a very good stage for him. He’s not afraid of attacking from far out and Team Sky would definitely not mind not having the jersey for another day. The morale is high on Katusha these days and Caruso could be joker prolonging the champagne days for the Russian team.

Another good joker for this stage is Stefano Pirazzi (who also crashed on Stage 3, but without injuries). He showed in Giro del Trentino that he is in great shape now, but he didn’t manage to be up front when Garmin started their surprise attack. Pirazzi crossed the line just behind the big group almost 2 minutes after Luca Paolini and that means he’s now free to do what he does best: attack! Bardiani-CSF don’t have a rider for the overall classification but Stefano Pirazzi is their best card to play uphill. He’s aggressive, persistent and he never gives up. Pirazzi is already 2:45 down in the overall classification and the favorites won’t mind him getting away on the final climb.

Like Stage 3, this is a very difficult stage to predict. Riders like Weening, Santaromita, Visconti, Sarmiento and Duarte are all good jokers too, but I think I will stick with the ones already mentioned.

Favorite: Mauro Santambrogio

Top3 Pick: Domenico Pozzovivo

Jokers: Giampaolo Caruso / Stefano Pirazzi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 4:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

We are only on stage three of this year’s Giro d’Italia, but it’s already time for the opportunistic riders to try their luck. The pure sprinters will have troubles staying up front on the 222 km from Sorrento to Marina di Ascea, especially on the last 80 km with a couple of climbs on the menu.

The first 140 km are relatively flat and a break should have no problems getting clear here. With 77 km to go the first climb, San Mauro Cilento, starts. Its 8 km with an average gradient of 6,5% will make it tough for the sprinters to stay in the peloton. Still, there are about 30 km from the top of San Mauro Cilento until the next climb starts. Sella di Catona stretches over 20 km but is separated by a short descent in the middle. The two uphill sections both have an average gradient of about 4% but the climb does kick up towards the top with parts of 7%. 

There are only 20 km to go from the top of Sella di Catona and if a small group gets away over the top, they won’t be easy to catch. Like the climb, the descent too is split in two, with a short ascent in the middle. The last 8 km are downhill towards the line and strong descenters like Vincenzo Nibali and Samuel Sanchez may want to test Team Sky and try to gain a few seconds. Especially Samuel Sanchez must be eager to take back some time after Euskaltel got their TTT ruined by a punture with 1,5 km to go on Sunday. Don't be surprised if Sanchez attacks on the final 8 km towards the line. 

Also, the last kilometer is very tricky. Coming down from the climb, there is a viaduct leading directly into a roundabout and this will stretch out the peloton a lot. After that there is a 90° left turn with just 400 meters to go. It won't be easy to gain positions on the descent, so you need to be among the first riders over the last top if you want to win this stage.

I think many of the pure sprinters like Chicchi, Viviani & Cavendish will have troubles on final hilly 80 km of the stage. Teams like GreenEdge and FDJ should try to set a high pace to thin out the competition for Goss and Bouhanni. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it to the line. The stage profile reminds me of the stage Angel Vicioso won in 2011 when a small group got away over the top of the last climb before the downhill finish. Vicioso is in the race again this year and he seems to be in great shape right now. He’s definitely a rider to look out for in the final. The same goes for aggressive riders like Giovanni Visconti and Filippo Pozzato. Visconti took the KOM jersey on stage 1 and I’m sure he will be keen to hang on to it for a while. The former Italian champion is a real specialist on these kind of finishes and he can’t be given too much of a gap towards the end. Also, Giovanni Visconti is only 9 seconds after Salvatore Puccio in the overall classification, so a stage win will put him in Maglia Rosa!

Another rider this stage finish is perfect for is Fabio Felline. The young Italian has a huge potential. He’s getting stronger every year and he won’t have any problems on these kind of climbs. Furthermore, Felline is very fast on the line. He’s not a sprinter, but he in a group of 40-50 riders, there aren’t many who can beat him. The way I see it, Fabio Felline should be named as one of the favorites for this stage. He can both attack in the end and win a sprint in a reduced group. On Stage 1 Felline punctured in the final and in team time trial he had to change bike. If he can avoid more bad luck, I think Felline will be close to Top3 no matter how this stage evolves.

Personally, I would like to see Marco Marcato and Oscar Gatto try something on this stage. Marcato came out of the Ardennes Classics in great shape and he’s now eager to get his first win of the season in his debut Giro d’Italia. Marco Marcato has his eyes on a different stage in this race - more on that when time - but with his fast finish and strength on the hills, this stage too seems very good for him.

Last year Oscar Gatto arrived to the Giro a bit tired after a strong season start, but this year he seems to have timed it differently. As mentioned earlier, I doubt Chicchi can make it over the climbs so Vini-Fantini have to put their faith in other riders. Luckily for them, they bring a whole team of riders for these kind of stages. Di Luca, Rabottini, Taborre, Garzelli and Gatto all have the abilities to win on a finish like this but I think Gatto is their best card to play. He’s aggressive, good on the hills and very fast on the line.

As you probably gather from this Preview, it’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this. It sure looks like a stage for a breakaway, but both Nacer Bouhanni and Matt Goss have the strength to make it over the climbs and therefore I guess one of those must the favorite. I pick the French champion.

Favorite: Nacer Bouhanni

Top3 pick: Fabio Felline

Jokers: Giovanni Visconti / Marco Marcato

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 3:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 2 Preview

The team time trial is the first fight between overall contenders in this year’s Giro d’Italia. Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins will be eager to get an advantage early on, but Astana and Vincenzo Nibali showed in Giro del Trentino that they won’t lose much time. Losing 1 sec per kilometer (as it was in Trentino) is definitely acceptable for Astana and I wouldn’t be surprised if they even do better than that.

It’s a short team time trial of only 17.4 km but it does have some nasty parts, especially towards the end. The last climb kicks up with 7% in the beginning and the final descent is very technical with many turns and a short tunnel heading into the last kilometer. It’s essential to know the course well in order to win this stage and that is also why I don’t pick GreenEdge as my favorite. On paper, the Australian team bring the best time trial squad but for they haven’t had time to train on the course. Had it been a typical flat time trial, they probably would have won anyway but with this undulating route and technical descents, I doubt they will set the best time.

The way I see it, Team Sky should be strong enough to win this team time trial. They won in Trentino without an important rider like Rigoberto Uran and even though the competition is stronger here, they still have a great team. Especially Wiggins and Cataldo will be able to pull hard and knowing Wiggins has to gain as much time as possible in these disciplines, they should be properly motivated too.

Garmin with Ryder Hesjedal are another strong contender for this stage. They won the team time trial last year but are now without Alex Rasmussen and Sebastien Rosseler who did a lot of work back then. Their replacements - David Millar and Thomas Dekker - should be able to do just as well though and a stage Top3 without Garmin will be a big surprise.

My personal joker for this stage is Blanco. People seem to forget about the Dutch team when talking about the contenders for the TTT, but I have a feeling they will surprise and maybe even make Top3. Robert Gesink aims for the overall podium and in order to achieve that, he has to do well against the clock. Gesink has already shown to be strong in the time trials and together with specialists like Clement, Kelderman and Bobridge, Blanco have a very good team for this stage.

I would also like to mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. They took 3^rd place in team time trial last year and bring an even stronger team this time. Manuele Boaro and Mads Christensen have been showing outstanding shape the last weeks and together with Daniele Bennati, they should be able to put in another good performance. The Danish team hope to put Rafal Majka in the Top15 overall and it would be a great confidence boost for the whole team if they do well in this stage.

Favorite: Team Sky

Top3 pick: Garmin

Joker: Blanco

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 2:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv