Giro d'Italia: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After three tough days, it’s now time for the sprinters. It’s a short stage, only 169 km, and it’s pancake flat. Pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish, Mattia Gavazzi and Francesco Chicchi have had some very difficult days on the bike, but now they have a chance to get their saying. Especially Chicchi and Gavazzi will be eager to get a good result after they both crashed on Stage 1.

The stage ends with two laps of 16.3 km in Margherita di Savoia. Stage 5 ended up in a big crash in the last corner with 1 km to go, but with the last three kilometers straight out this time, we should get a regular power sprint with all the big leadout trains lining up their guns.

Mark Cavendish is the big favorite. He showed on Stage 1 that he wins just as easily with a broken leadout as he does when everything goes smoothly, and it’s difficult not to see him winning this stage too. He will be able to rely on Steegmans and Trentin for the final leadout and even though Argos, GreenEdge or Cannondale ends up in front with 1 km to go, Cavendish still has a kick a level or two above the rest.

Being a power sprint, naturally John Degenkolb and Elia Viviani will have a good chance with their strong leadout trains. Still, I think guys like Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi will have a solid chance of taking Top3. Bouhanni didn’t look good on Stage 3 and 4, but he was right up in the mix on Stage 5 before getting hold up by the crash. The French champion is a former boxer and he shows that on the bike too when fighting for the right wheel in the sprint. Bouhanni doesn’t have the same kick as Cavendish, but he’s very fast on the final meters and he can now turn his frustration from Stage 5 into motivation for Stage 6.

For Stage 1, I picked Giacomo Nizzolo for a spot in Top3 - he ended 4^th - but allergies could prevent the fast Italian from being at his best. The weather forecast shows a sunny day in the saddle and riders suffering from allergies like Nizzolo and Phinney won’t have it easy in such a power sprint.

The first sprinter to get dropped on Stage 5 was Mattia Gavazzi. He knew the climb was too steep for him and he didn’t even try to hang onto the peloton when he lost ground. Gavazzi is in great shape right now and I think he will give Androni another podium spot in this year’s Giro d’Italia in this stage. Gavazzi believes he has the speed to beat Mark Cavendish right now, and even though I won’t say the same, I do believe he will put up a good fight.

It’s difficult to pick a joker for the sprint stages this year since all the sprinters in race are solid Top3 candidates. Instead, I would like to point out Edwin Avila. The young Colombian isn’t well known - yet -  but I think he can surprise a little in this Giro. I’m not saying he’s going to win a bunch sprint, or even making Top3, but he can definitely aim for a place in Top10. Like many others, he didn’t get a chance to test his legs on Stage 1 due to the crash, but he was in the wheel of Chicchi (in the wheel of Cavendish) and that shows he’s ready. Teammate Leonardo Duque will probably also try to get in the mix and together the two Colombians should be able to get a good result for the team.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top 3 picks: Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi

Joker: Edwin Avila

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 6:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

For the third day in a row, we have an undulating stage ahead of us. It’s another stage of more than 200 km and like the previous two, the first long stretch is flat before two climbs near the finish. The first one, Montescaglioso is only a category 4 climb but its 4.5 km with an average gradient of 5,6% - and parts of 10% - will thin out the peloton before the final.

In 2003, Marco Pantani attacked on Montescaglioso but despite a strong effort from the Italian legend, which made most of the sprinters lose ground, it all ended up in a bunch sprint. The profile of this stage looks a lot like the one the Giro organizers used 10 years ago and don’t be surprised if it ends in another sprint despite the hilly finish.

The final climb isn’t very steep and strong sprinters with a bit of climbing legs like Degenkolb, Ventoso and Goss should put their teams in front and try to drop some of the pure sprinters. The climb ends with 4.8 km to go and from here on it’s straight out with a bit of descending before the last kilometer kicks up with 2.8% all the way to the line. GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano both saved energy on Stage 4 for this stage and this could very well end up with a fight between Goss and Degenkolb.

This is also a great finish for riders like Pozzato, Felline, Gatto and Battaglin. Originally, I had Enrico Battaglin down for a “joker” spot on this stage but after his impressive win on Stage 4, I doubt he can be considered a joker anymore. These kind of climbs aren’t too tough for the young Italian and everybody saw how fast he is on the line Tuesday afternoon. Teammate Sacha Modolo might fancy this stage too and together with Battaglin, Bardiani really have a very strong duo for Stage 5.

The way I see it, the final climb isn’t hard enough for the favorites to test each other and with only a few sprint stages this year, the sprinters’ teams should be able to keep it together. Quickstep will probably try to take the lead in order to keep a pace Mark Cavendish is comfortable with, but Stage 6 seems like a better option for the Manxman. That being said, of course Cavendish will do everything he can in order to take another stage win as soon as possible. McEwen crossed the line first back in 2003 and if Cavendish can get back to the peloton after Montescaglioso, he’s the man to beat.

It’s not easy picking a favorite for a stage like this one. A break getting away on the final 10 km could easily make it to the line, but if teams like Movistar and Bardiani don’t have anyone in the break, it will probably end like in 2003. Still, the chances of Movistar being in the break are not bad. Giovanni Visconti is gunning for the Pink Jersey and even though he’s 52 seconds down, a 20 seconds time bonus for winning would bring him close if he gets away from the peloton.

Lampre haven’t had much luck so far in this Giro d’Italia. Roberto Ferrari was caught behind the crash on Stage 1, they had problems staying together in the TTT and then Michele Scarponi crashed on Stage 3. Their luck could change on this stage if Filippo Pozzato has a good day. Pozzato showed great shape in Tour of Turkey and after a disappointing Spring Season, he now has a chance to take revenge.

Favorite: John Degenkolb

Top3 Pick: Francesco Ventoso

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato & Giovanni Visconti

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 5:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Stage 4 is another very long day in the saddle, 244 km in total, and one could argue that the first - flat - 190 km are a bit too much. Anyway, like on Stage 3 a break will most likely get clear early on and the stage won’t really get interesting until the last 50 km.

This is where the category three climb, Vibo Valentina, starts with an average gradient of 6% the first couple of kilometers before it evens out a bit. After a ‘flat’ part, the climb kicks up with 6-7% towards the top. There are still 40 km to go from the top of Vibo Valentina but only 20 km to the beginning of the final climb, Croce Ferrata. This category 2 climb stretches over 12 km with an average gradient of 5.6% and parts of 10% in the middle. There are 6.7 km to the finishing line from the top of Croce Ferrata and it’s not impossible that a small group of even a single strong rider can keep the peloton at bay if they get a gap over the top.

The first 3-4 km are downhill on narrow and twisting roads and with 3 km to go the road kicks up for about 500 meters. The last kilometer is flat but narrow roads and parts of paves is definitely in the favor of a break making it to the line.

Stage 3 showed us that Ryder Hesjedal means business in this race. He wants to win overall with number 1 on his back and he really animated the race both uphill and downhill. While everybody else was struggling Hesjedal said he didn’t even find it hard. The final climb on Stage 4 may not be hard enough to make a real selection but if Hesjedal and others want to shake Team Sky - who didn’t seem to be in control in the final on Stage 3 - they may try attacking again. The possibilities of a break making it are not bad, but it’s clear to everyone that the GC contenders won’t wait to the big mountains before testing each other. Therefore, I think one of the team leaders will take the stage win in Serra San Bruno.

Except for Ryder Hesjedal and Vincenzo Nibali, Mauro Santambrogio looked very strong on Stage 3. He didn’t make the cut when Garmin first attacked with three riders, but he quickly bridged the gap all by himself. Santambrogio also made it to the front when Hesjedal attacked on the downhill section with Paolini and Agnoli and to me, Mauro Santambrogio is the big favorite for this stage. He has been in outstanding shape since Tirreno-Adriatico - two months ago - and as I fear he may fade out in the last week, he needs to get his stage win soon. There aren’t many riders who can drop Santambrogio uphill these days and since he’s fast on the line too, I feel confident picking him as my favorite.

On paper, this stage looks perfect for Paolo Tiralongo. He’s strong uphill and also very fast in a reduced group. Unfortunately, Tiralongo crashed on Stage 3 and hit his knee, and I’m sure he will be more concerned about healing up before the mountains than attacking with a sore knee this early in the race. Instead, look to Domenico Pozzovivo. He won a similar stage in last year’s Giro (the stage to Lago Laceno) after he attacked and got away on the final climb and he knows this stage finish very well. Pozzovivo is already 1:41 min down in the general classification and even though the favorites know that they can’t let him get too much of a gap, he probably won’t the first rider they’ll chase down.

Teammate Carlos Betancur is at the same time in the GC and like Santambrogio, Betancur has also been in good shape for a while now. I think he will manage to stay sharp the whole Giro, but naturally he should target a stage win if he gets the chance. Betancur was one of the many riders crashing on Stage 3 but he seems to be okay. He has a kick uphill like few riders right now and even though there are still 6,7 km to from the top, he could make it all the way on a good day.

Luca Paolini will most likely lose the Pink Jersey already on this stage and that means Bradley Wiggins will take the lead unless one of his nearest rivals win. Katusha have been doing great so far in this race and even though Paolini loses the jersey, they may just keep it anyway. Confused? Let me explain. Giampaolo Caruso has been in great shape the last month and this is a very good stage for him. He’s not afraid of attacking from far out and Team Sky would definitely not mind not having the jersey for another day. The morale is high on Katusha these days and Caruso could be joker prolonging the champagne days for the Russian team.

Another good joker for this stage is Stefano Pirazzi (who also crashed on Stage 3, but without injuries). He showed in Giro del Trentino that he is in great shape now, but he didn’t manage to be up front when Garmin started their surprise attack. Pirazzi crossed the line just behind the big group almost 2 minutes after Luca Paolini and that means he’s now free to do what he does best: attack! Bardiani-CSF don’t have a rider for the overall classification but Stefano Pirazzi is their best card to play uphill. He’s aggressive, persistent and he never gives up. Pirazzi is already 2:45 down in the overall classification and the favorites won’t mind him getting away on the final climb.

Like Stage 3, this is a very difficult stage to predict. Riders like Weening, Santaromita, Visconti, Sarmiento and Duarte are all good jokers too, but I think I will stick with the ones already mentioned.

Favorite: Mauro Santambrogio

Top3 Pick: Domenico Pozzovivo

Jokers: Giampaolo Caruso / Stefano Pirazzi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 4:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

We are only on stage three of this year’s Giro d’Italia, but it’s already time for the opportunistic riders to try their luck. The pure sprinters will have troubles staying up front on the 222 km from Sorrento to Marina di Ascea, especially on the last 80 km with a couple of climbs on the menu.

The first 140 km are relatively flat and a break should have no problems getting clear here. With 77 km to go the first climb, San Mauro Cilento, starts. Its 8 km with an average gradient of 6,5% will make it tough for the sprinters to stay in the peloton. Still, there are about 30 km from the top of San Mauro Cilento until the next climb starts. Sella di Catona stretches over 20 km but is separated by a short descent in the middle. The two uphill sections both have an average gradient of about 4% but the climb does kick up towards the top with parts of 7%. 

There are only 20 km to go from the top of Sella di Catona and if a small group gets away over the top, they won’t be easy to catch. Like the climb, the descent too is split in two, with a short ascent in the middle. The last 8 km are downhill towards the line and strong descenters like Vincenzo Nibali and Samuel Sanchez may want to test Team Sky and try to gain a few seconds. Especially Samuel Sanchez must be eager to take back some time after Euskaltel got their TTT ruined by a punture with 1,5 km to go on Sunday. Don't be surprised if Sanchez attacks on the final 8 km towards the line. 

Also, the last kilometer is very tricky. Coming down from the climb, there is a viaduct leading directly into a roundabout and this will stretch out the peloton a lot. After that there is a 90° left turn with just 400 meters to go. It won't be easy to gain positions on the descent, so you need to be among the first riders over the last top if you want to win this stage.

I think many of the pure sprinters like Chicchi, Viviani & Cavendish will have troubles on final hilly 80 km of the stage. Teams like GreenEdge and FDJ should try to set a high pace to thin out the competition for Goss and Bouhanni. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it to the line. The stage profile reminds me of the stage Angel Vicioso won in 2011 when a small group got away over the top of the last climb before the downhill finish. Vicioso is in the race again this year and he seems to be in great shape right now. He’s definitely a rider to look out for in the final. The same goes for aggressive riders like Giovanni Visconti and Filippo Pozzato. Visconti took the KOM jersey on stage 1 and I’m sure he will be keen to hang on to it for a while. The former Italian champion is a real specialist on these kind of finishes and he can’t be given too much of a gap towards the end. Also, Giovanni Visconti is only 9 seconds after Salvatore Puccio in the overall classification, so a stage win will put him in Maglia Rosa!

Another rider this stage finish is perfect for is Fabio Felline. The young Italian has a huge potential. He’s getting stronger every year and he won’t have any problems on these kind of climbs. Furthermore, Felline is very fast on the line. He’s not a sprinter, but he in a group of 40-50 riders, there aren’t many who can beat him. The way I see it, Fabio Felline should be named as one of the favorites for this stage. He can both attack in the end and win a sprint in a reduced group. On Stage 1 Felline punctured in the final and in team time trial he had to change bike. If he can avoid more bad luck, I think Felline will be close to Top3 no matter how this stage evolves.

Personally, I would like to see Marco Marcato and Oscar Gatto try something on this stage. Marcato came out of the Ardennes Classics in great shape and he’s now eager to get his first win of the season in his debut Giro d’Italia. Marco Marcato has his eyes on a different stage in this race - more on that when time - but with his fast finish and strength on the hills, this stage too seems very good for him.

Last year Oscar Gatto arrived to the Giro a bit tired after a strong season start, but this year he seems to have timed it differently. As mentioned earlier, I doubt Chicchi can make it over the climbs so Vini-Fantini have to put their faith in other riders. Luckily for them, they bring a whole team of riders for these kind of stages. Di Luca, Rabottini, Taborre, Garzelli and Gatto all have the abilities to win on a finish like this but I think Gatto is their best card to play. He’s aggressive, good on the hills and very fast on the line.

As you probably gather from this Preview, it’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this. It sure looks like a stage for a breakaway, but both Nacer Bouhanni and Matt Goss have the strength to make it over the climbs and therefore I guess one of those must the favorite. I pick the French champion.

Favorite: Nacer Bouhanni

Top3 pick: Fabio Felline

Jokers: Giovanni Visconti / Marco Marcato

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 3:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 2 Preview

The team time trial is the first fight between overall contenders in this year’s Giro d’Italia. Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins will be eager to get an advantage early on, but Astana and Vincenzo Nibali showed in Giro del Trentino that they won’t lose much time. Losing 1 sec per kilometer (as it was in Trentino) is definitely acceptable for Astana and I wouldn’t be surprised if they even do better than that.

It’s a short team time trial of only 17.4 km but it does have some nasty parts, especially towards the end. The last climb kicks up with 7% in the beginning and the final descent is very technical with many turns and a short tunnel heading into the last kilometer. It’s essential to know the course well in order to win this stage and that is also why I don’t pick GreenEdge as my favorite. On paper, the Australian team bring the best time trial squad but for they haven’t had time to train on the course. Had it been a typical flat time trial, they probably would have won anyway but with this undulating route and technical descents, I doubt they will set the best time.

The way I see it, Team Sky should be strong enough to win this team time trial. They won in Trentino without an important rider like Rigoberto Uran and even though the competition is stronger here, they still have a great team. Especially Wiggins and Cataldo will be able to pull hard and knowing Wiggins has to gain as much time as possible in these disciplines, they should be properly motivated too.

Garmin with Ryder Hesjedal are another strong contender for this stage. They won the team time trial last year but are now without Alex Rasmussen and Sebastien Rosseler who did a lot of work back then. Their replacements - David Millar and Thomas Dekker - should be able to do just as well though and a stage Top3 without Garmin will be a big surprise.

My personal joker for this stage is Blanco. People seem to forget about the Dutch team when talking about the contenders for the TTT, but I have a feeling they will surprise and maybe even make Top3. Robert Gesink aims for the overall podium and in order to achieve that, he has to do well against the clock. Gesink has already shown to be strong in the time trials and together with specialists like Clement, Kelderman and Bobridge, Blanco have a very good team for this stage.

I would also like to mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. They took 3^rd place in team time trial last year and bring an even stronger team this time. Manuele Boaro and Mads Christensen have been showing outstanding shape the last weeks and together with Daniele Bennati, they should be able to put in another good performance. The Danish team hope to put Rafal Majka in the Top15 overall and it would be a great confidence boost for the whole team if they do well in this stage.

Favorite: Team Sky

Top3 pick: Garmin

Joker: Blanco

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 2:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 1 Preview

For the first time in 10 years, the Giro starts with a regular stage. Last time that happened Alessandro Petacchi won and took the first Maglia Rosa and everything but another bunch sprint will be a big surprise.

The sprinters won’t have many chances in this year’s Giro d’Italia and this one is certainly one they don’t want to miss out on.

The stage is only 130 km long and it’s split up into two difference loops. The first one includes the category 4 climb Posillipo on Via Francesco Petrarca and is covered four times within the first 55 km. There is a KOM sprint placed on the top of Possillipo the 2^nd and 3^rd time the riders cross the top so expect fireworks right from the beginning of the stage. The smaller teams and those without GC riders or sprinters will be eager get in the break and take the KOM jersey on the first day of the Giro.

After looping on the Posillipo Hill four times the riders head back to Napoli and start on eight laps in the city. The last 6 km are tricky with many bends and corners but the last 2 km seem pretty straight forward. Argos-Shimano, GreenEdge, Cannondale and Quickstep will all try to hit the front the last few kilometers and with everybody having fresh legs - and thinking of Maglia Rosa - it sure will be hectic.

Usually Mark Cavendish doesn’t win on the first day of a stage race, but being Cavendish he still is the big favorite. He didn’t get Alessandro Petacchi as leadout for the Giro and that means it’s up to Trentin and Steegsmans to deliver Cavendish on the right wheel - not leading him out, delivering him. Note the difference! Cavendish decided to go to Tour de Romandie, a stage race without any mass sprint finishes, in order to get ready for the Giro and I wouldn’t be surprised if he needs a stage to get 100%. That being said, I wouldn’t bet against him either.

The way I see it, there are three sprinters on the same level just behind Cavendish. Matt Goss, John Degenkolb og Nacer Bouhanni. Goss and Degenkolb probably have the two strongest leadout teams in the race since and I think it will be a fight between GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano to take the front on the last kilometer. Seeded in the third group on my paper we’ll find Roberto Ferrari, Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo and Giacomo Nizzolo. My personal favorite in this group is Nizzolo. He’s getting better and better every year and it won’t be long before he’s beating the big favorites in the mass sprints. Nizzolo doesn’t need a leadout train and while everybody is looking at Cavendish, Goss and Degekolb, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nizzolo made top3 in Napoli.

Also, look out for Francesco Chicchi. He didn’t impress much in Tour of Turkey last week but he is an expert in these short criterium stages. You normally never see Chicchi until the final 50 meters, but he has a strong kick and high top speed. If anyone can make an upset and snatch Maglia Rosa from the favorites it’s Chicchi!

Get live race updates and more predictions by following me on Twitter @mrconde.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Joker: Francesco Chicchi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 1:



For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Let it be said right away; there are two big favorites for this race and then a handful of riders fighting for the last step on the podium. The first 8 stages include two difficult time trials - one TTT and one ITT - and from this point on it will be everybody against Bradley Wiggins.

Last year’s Tour de France winner is expected to destroy the rest of the peloton on the 54.8 (!) undulating kilometers against the clock on stage 8 and I doubt Wiggins will let Maglia Rosa leave his shoulder after this day.

The last week of the Giro is always extremely hard and this year is no difference with five mountain top finishes, one of these a mountain time trial with just three days to go. The sprinters probably won’t have more than four or five days to win this year and with 20 bonus seconds to the stage winner every day (except for the time trials), I doubt we will see many breakaways making it in the mountains. This is Bradley Wiggins’ race to lose and Vincenzo Nibali, Ryder Hesjedal, Michele Scarponi, Robert Gesink and Samuel Sanchez all have to attack and take as many bonus seconds as possible.

On paper, there are plenty of opportunities to attack Bradley Wiggins in the mountains but Team Sky are not messing around. Rigoberto Uran, Sergio Henao and Dario Cataldo could lead many teams in this race, but they are all committed to work hard for Wiggins. Team Sky showed in the Tour de France last year, that they have what it takes to slowly kill the competition and drain the rest of the favorites for energy with a hard steady pace. The small and explosive climbers may be able to distance Wiggins and his team in the big mountains, but the time differences won’t be a big as the ones in the time trials. In the past, Bradley Wiggins had problems on the steep climbs but he has been working hard on that this year in order to be ready for the Giro. He now no longer fears the steep percentages and the way I see it, there is only one rider able to beat Wiggins this year.

Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in the shape of his life heading in to this Giro d’Italia and I expect him and Wiggins to take the first two places on the final podium. Nibali doesn’t have Wiggins raw power in the individual time trials, but Astana do have a strong team for the TTT on stage 2. Nibali lost 2 and 3½ min in the two ITT’s in last year’s Tour de France and I think he will end up losing around 2½ min to Wiggins in the long ITT here. He showed in Giro del Tretino a few weeks ago, that he is getting better on the steep parts, and I think he will surprise a few with some strong attacks when the gradients kick up. There are many “medium” stages in this year’s Giro d’Italia and I think Nibali and the rest of the favorites will take advantage of every opportunity to drop Wiggins if possible. Both Nibali and Wiggins are rock solid and don’t really have off-days. It’s true you can lose the race on just one day, especially in the last week, but I seriously doubt any of these two will go down like that. Nibali is best uphill, Wiggins is best against the clock and unfortunately for Nibali, the time differences will be biggest in ITTs. Still, Nibali is very proud and he never gives up. Don’t count him out until the end of the penultimate stage.

In my preview last year, I only had Ryder Hesjedal down for 8^th place overall and after his impressive win, I think it’s only fair to now put him as the first contender for the last spot on the podium. His season so far has been very similar to the one last year and being two kilos lighter than in 2012, I think Hesjedal will prove that last year wasn’t a one-time thing. I doubt he can drop Nibali uphill or stay close to Wiggins in the time trials, but he now knows that it takes, mentally as well, to win a Grand Tour. Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal have won a Grand Tour within the last couple of years and I doubt any of them will have an off-day in this race. Garmin aren’t nearly as strong as Astana and Team Sky but they showed last year, that it wasn’t a problem. Danielson, Stetina and VandeVelde will be Hesjedal’s last three in the mountains and it should be enough for the strong Canadian.

I told myself last year that I would give Robert Gesink one more chance to prove his abilities as a serious overall contender in a Grand Tour. This is it. Gesink has been called “a future Tour de France winner” for a long time now but he is yet to show he can walk the distance. He’s done Top10 in the Vuelta three times and once Top5 in the Tour, but he always seems to run into bad luck. This year, Robert Gesink has put everything on the Giro d’Italia and despite a mixed start of the season, I do believe Gesink is ready to aim for the podium in this Giro. He came to Tour de Romandie after two weeks training on Teide (Tenerife) and did show some good racing the first days before he took easy in the bad weather with eyes on the Giro. He claims to be in great shape right now and I think Gesink will make Top5 this in this Giro - maybe even podium if everything goes his way. Remember, Blanco still don’t have a sponsor for next season and naturally Gesink and the rest of the team will do everything they can in order to show they are worth sponsoring.

Like Gesink and Hesjedal, Michael Scarponi hasn’t shown much this season. He did however manage to take 3^rd place overall in Volta Catalunya after a sneaky attack on the final stage. He took it easy in Giro del Trentino after a training camp but showed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege (5^th place) that the shape is good. Scarponi was the big favorite last year but couldn’t live up to the expectations and ended 4^th in the overall classification. Scarponi isn’t strong in the time trials but he is rock solid. If he’s named among the favorites you can be sure he will end among the best. He’s has finished in Top4 the last three years in a row - winning in 2011 after Contador got suspended - and I think he will make another Top5 performance this year.  He can rely on strong riders like Niemiec, Serpa and Stortoni in the mountains and like Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal he never has a real off-day. Without the long time trial on stage 8, Scarponi might had have a chance of winning this race overall, but now I think Top5 is the best he can aim for.

The last rider with a solid chance of Top5, in my book, is Samuel Sanchez. Officially, the goal for Euskaltel and Sanchez is a stage win - which will make Sanchez join the club of stage winners in both Giro, Tour and Vuelta - but I wouldn’t be surprised if Samuel Sanchez ends up fighting for a spot on the podium. He’s already been on the podium in the Vuelta a couple of times and - on paper - also in the Tour. Naturally a stage win would be more important than ending 6^th or 10^th overall, but if Sanchez manages to pull off a stage win in the first half of the Giro, he might as well give everything for the GC too.

Stage 20 - The penultimate stage of this year's Giro d'Italia.
The final chance to change to move up in the GC.
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The way I see it, there are 6-8 riders left fighting for the last four places in Top10 overall. Franco Pellizotti will be eager to show off his Italian Champions jersey on home soil and I expect him do very well in the last week. Beñat Intxausti already showed last year what he can do in the Grand Tours and I think now the time has come for him to lead a team. He’s very strong in time trials and he defends himself just fine on the climbs. Last year, Intxausti said he was aiming for a podium spot in this Giro, but I think a Top10 place is the most realistic result for the Basque rider.

My own personal joker for this Giro d’Italia is Robert Kiserlovski. He moved from Astana to Radioshack before this season in order to get his own chance in the big races, and he has had his eyes on this race ever since. While others dream about the Tour, Kiserlovski dreams about the Giro and he showed in Tour de Romandie that he’s in great shape right now. Kiserlovski’s weak spot is the time trials and that is also why I can’t see him do better than around 10-15 overall. I think he will surprise quite a few in the mountains and with Thiago Machado at his side, he can count on good support uphill. 

I could go on for hours about the rest of the GC riders in this Giro d’Italia, but instead I’ll leave you with this Pre-Top20 for the general classification:

1. Wiggins

2. Nibali

3. Hesjedal

4. Gesink

5. Scarponi

6. Sanchez

7. Pellizotti

8. Intxausti

9. Kiserlovski

10. Betancur (White Jersey winner)

11. Pozzovivo

12. Santambrogio

13. Majka

14. Uran

15. Machado

16. Cataldo

17. Trofimov

18. Pirazzi

19. Serpa

20. Henao

As you can see, Cadel Evans didn’t make my list. To me, it seems like Evans still think he can win the Tour this year and therefore I seriously doubt he will dig deep in this Giro. I expect him to go for a stage win one of the days instead.

Remember, there will be Stage Previews for all the stages this year. Each preview will be posted the evening before the stage and the one for Stage 1 will be most likely already be online Thursday evening or Friday morning. This Preview doesn’t talk about the sprinters in the race, but there will plenty of sprinter-talk in the preview for stage 1 and the remaining bunch sprint stages.

For live race coverage of Giro d’Italia 2013 go to steephill.tv