Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 6 Preview

Stage 5 started out just like expected, many attacks and three Movistar riders in front. Team Sky were down to only Vasil Kiryienka in support of Richie Porte and Sergio Henao but apparently, that didn’t mean much. The strong Belarusian lead the peloton alone for 50 km and in the end Porte won in front of my pre-picked favorite Samuel Sanchez and Team Sky team mate Henao. On a stage where everybody needed to distance Richie Porte, the Tasmanian ended up distancing everybody else.

Friday’s Team Sky show leaves us with Richie Porte as the massive favorite for both the stage win and the overall victory. Porte has been outstanding against the clock this season and on a demanding course for the GC riders, I can’t really see anybody threatening him if he’s 100%.

A lot of riders dropped out of the race on stage 5, including strong time trialists like Tejay van Garderen, Rein Taaramae, Michael Rogers and Andreas Klöden. Only the toughest riders remain and even these will feel Friday’s stage in their legs, especially with another day of heavy rain.

The course is very hard with steep climbs and tricky descents. One wrong turn or one slippery piece of road is all it takes to ruin your GC dreams on this stage, but with the first five riders within 10 seconds, nobody can take it easy. It’s full gas from the start and whomever dares to take the most chances will end up winning Vuelta Pais Vasco overall. I don't think this course is good for Tony Martin and having already crashed once in this race, I think he will be a little bit more careful in the rain.

Samuel Sanchez showed to be back in the game on stage 5 and I’m sure he will give everything he has, and take all the chances he needs, in order to give Euskaltel their first win of the season. Sanchez hasn’t won anything since he won the final time trial of last year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and he will be eager to show he’s back.

Simon Spilak is normally very strong the rain and he also tried to get away, catching Richie Porte, on the final km on stage 5. Friday was Katusha owner Igor Makarov’s birthday and even though it didn’t end up with another win (Purito won on his birthday last year), I’m sure Makarov will settled for a spot on the final podium. Spilak should be able to take 10 seconds on both Henao and Quintana on this stage and if so, it’s up Richie Porte and Alberto Contador not let him take the overall win too.

I’ve been naming Beñat Intxausti a couple of times as my joker in this race, but his crash on stage 1 seems to have kept him from performing as expected. Still, I see him stronger and stronger every day and this time trial really suits him well. He has to dig deep in order to provide Nairo Quintana with valuable time splits and I honestly think Intxausti has a chance of winning this stage if Porte doesn’t destroy them all again.

Favorites: Richie Porte & Samuel Sanchez

Joker: Beñat Intxausti 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview

Remember the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.

There will be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r, Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.

The beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an early break will make it.

I think Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week, giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.

Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top.

Euskaltel have, naturally, also been out doing some recon of these stages last week, and I’m sure Samuel Sanchez will be eager to take the first personal win in over a year and Euskaltel’s first win of the season. Sanchez too was very good on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and the short hills and tricky descents are perfect for him - especially in the rain, where other riders have problems.

Team Sky lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group with Porte left behind.

Damiano Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front, I’m sure he will try something in the final.

In Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the stage and they ended 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. On this stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates instead.

Favorites: Quintana, Sanchez.

Solid outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón

Jokers: Fuglsang, Gilbert, Vicioso

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 4 Preview

This is the typical finish on Arrate. It’s a classic in the recent year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and it was also used in the Vuelta España last year. Normally the rule is; “First rider in the last corner takes the stage”, but last year in the Vuelta, Purito started to celebrate a millisecond too early and by that gave the stage to Valverde.

Samuel Sanchez has won this stage the last three years in a row and naturally, he is among the favorites again this year. Still, it’s important to remember that Sanchez is not here in tip-top condition like the last years. This time he’s 100% focused on peaking in the Giro d’Italia and with strong climbers in the race like Contador, Henao, Porte, Betancur, Quintana, etc it won’t be easy to make it four in a row.

In my eyes, Alberto Contador is still the big GC favorite after stage 3. Contador won on Arrate back in 2009 after he soloed away from the other favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again this year. The first 6 km of the final climb have a steady gradient of 7,5% before the final “flat” (3%) 1,3 km. As mentioned in the previous previews, there aren’t any bonus seconds in the race, so if you want an advantage before the time trial, you need to attack when possible. 

I think Team Sky will try to control the race on final climb, like they have been doing all year long, and try to set Sergio Henao up for another lethal attack. Henao needs time before the time trial and right now he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. Movistar have strong riders like Rui Costa, Beñat Inxtausti and Nairo Quintana for this stage and I’m sure they will try something too. This climbs suits Quintana a lot more than the one on stage 3 and if he can cope with the expect rain, he will be very dangerous.

Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.

My personal joker for the stage is Pieter Weening. The morale on GreenEdge is sky high after two stage wins already and Weening did very well on La Lejana despite the steep gradients not being in his favor. Weening is fast on the line and if the we see a little group sprinting for the win again this year, I expcet Weening to be up there. The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The young Italian has been showing great shape lately and is always good in the rain. He has team mate Damiano Cunego to help him in the final and if Ulissi still up there in the final, he'll most likely win the stage.

Once again, it's difficult to pick only one rider as my favorite. Contador, Henao and Sanchez all seem like solid candidates, but I'll give Contador another shot to prove he's ready to win Vuelta Pais Vasco overall.

Favorite: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Pieter Weening / Diego Ulissi

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 3 Preview

After two "semi-flat" stages it's now time for the GC riders to show their ambitions. The last 40 km of the stage includes three categorized climbs and the finish on Alto de la Lejana kicks up with 21% the last 400 meters.

It's a stage for the explosive riders and without any bonus seconds on the line, the pure climbers without a strong time trial - like Igor Antón and Sergio Henao - need to distance their rivals. Euskaltel were out training on the climb a couple of days ago and Igor Antón has already stated he wants to do something great in this race. The finish on Arrate (Stage 4) doesn't really suit him, so if he wants a stage win, this is the stage to win.

Naturally it won't be easy with Alberto Contador and Team Sky in the race. Contador is looking very strong right now and I'm sure he will be eager to take another win in the Basque race. Team Sky have been outstanding so far this year and even though everybody is talking about Richie Porte, I think Sergio Henao will be the man for this stage. The steep gradients suit Henao a lot better than Porte and don't forget Henao took 3^rd place on the steep finish in last year's race.

Movistar's Nairo Quintana has been superb uphill the last month, but I don't think this short finish is good for him. Quintana likes it steep, yes, but not very short like this one. Also, Nairo Quintana wasn't planned to do the race as he were in France doing Tour de France recon with Alejandro Valverde just a few days before he was called up. I think Beñat Intxausti, despite his crash and time loss on stage 1, will be the team leader for Movistar.

For outsiders look to Wout Poels and Tom-Jelte Slagter. Both are very explosive and good on the steep gradients. Poels were great in Tirreno-Adriatico, considering his crash in Tour de France last year, and Slagter showed in Tour Down Under that he has what it takes to beat the elite on a short uphill finish.

It's difficult to pick a winner and I woud like to say both Antón, Henao and Contador, but if I have to pick one I'll have to say Contador. Still, don't be surprised if Euskaltel get their first win of the season on La Lejana.

Winner picks: Alberto Contador
Jokers: Wout Poels / Tom-Jelte Slagter

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 2 Preview

As predicted, stage 1 ended in a sprint in a reduced group and I think the same will happen on stage 2 - hopefully without the crashes. The final climb before the finishing line isn’t as steep as the one on stage 1 and without any accidents, we should see a bigger group fight for the stage win this time.

Simon Gerrans is in great shape right now and he won’t be easy to beat. GreenEdge will have to take responsibility defending the jersey early on but Gerrans still has a strong team to lead him out in the final. The last climb, Alto de Zaldiaran, is only 2,9 km with 4% average and have its top 9,2 km from the line. Phillipe Gilbert got hold up by the crash on stage 1 and couldn’t get back in the mix for the win. I think he will be eager to take revenge in Vitoria. Like Gerrans, Gilbert is looking to fine tune his shape for the Ardennes Classics and I think this is a good chance for the World Champion to get a win.

Astana were very strong on stage 1 and had three riders in first group of 17. They messed up a bit in the final sprint, but if they can get it right this time, I think Francesco Gavazzi has a solid chance of winning. The fast Italian is normally very good this time of year and if he can position himself well on the wheel of Gerrans or Gilbert, he has a good enough kick to win the stage.

We have seen how the descents have been used to split the peloton a couple of times this season already and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens again on stage 2. Without any bonus seconds in the race, every gained second is a success and some of the riders caught behind the crash on stage 1 naturally want to take back the lost time.

Euskaltel didn’t manage to put a single rider in the front group as Samuel Sanchez, Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón all got caught behind the crash, and I expect them to be riding very aggressively on this stage. Samuel Sanchez is one of the best riders on the descents and the Izagirre brothers aren’t bad either. Without a single win this season, Euskaltel are forced to attack - especially on home soil - and I’m sure they will do whatever they can to join the winning club of 2013. Therefore, I’ll give Gorka Izagirre another chance to prove why he should be a joker for the stage win.

Another good joker is Lampre’s Daniele Pietropolli. Like team leader Damiano Cunego, Pietropolli got caught behind the crash on stage 1 and if he manages to stay out of trouble, I think he could end up surprising a few with his fast finish.

Favorites: Phillippe Gilbert / Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Gorka Izagirre / Daniele Pietropolli

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 1 Preview

There aren’t any tailored stages for the sprinters in this year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco but stage 1 and 2 should still end in a sprint. A sprint in a reduced group that is. We have six categorized climbs on the menu and the last one, Alto de Aiastia (4,8 km / 5,42%), has its top just 7 km from the line.

It’s a good finish for riders with strong downhill skills like Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Cunego, but I think GreenEdge, BMC and Astana will try to keep it together. Especially GreenEdge look strong with Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey for the stage, while Astana have Francesco Gavazzi and Enrico Gasparotto. For BMC, Phillipe Gilbert will be the man for sprint and this is a good opportunity for the World Champion to show he’s ready for the upcoming Ardennes Classics later this month.

With a profile like this one, a break will have a solid chance of making it. Especially if strong riders get away on the last climb and if so, look to the Basque home favorites. Euskaltel are still without a win this season and naturally, they are very eager to perform on home soil. Samuel Sanchez may not be 100% yet - since he's targeting the Giro this year and not this race - but riders like Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón will be ready to fight stage wins. Personally, I expect a lot from Igor Antón, but on this stage I think the Izagirre brothers will shine. Gorka is very strong on the descents, he showed that in the Tour last year, and fast on the line too. He ended 14^th in GP Miguel Indurain on Saturday and he is my outsider for the stage win in Elgoibar Monday afternoon.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Joker: Gorka Izagirre

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Ronde van Vlaanderen - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the second big one day race of the season, and just like last time (Milano - San Remo) my favorite is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian wonderboy has been outstanding the last month or so, and he showed in Gent-Wevelgem that he also has what it takes to go solo in the final and finish it off.

The new racecourse, introduced last year, means no more Kapelmuur but instead three times on Oude Kwaremont followed by and Paterberg. The last time on the two hills starts with 18 km to go and last year it was all back together at this point. I would imagine Omega Pharma Quickstep to have one of their outsiders up the road when it’s time for Oude Kwaremont, but at the top I expect the favorite to be together in front. Fabian Cancellara used this hill to get away when he won E3 and I would imagine him to put the Swiss hammer down again here this Sunday.

Peter Sagan ran out of power on Oude Kwaremont last year when he hit the front of the peloton trying to chase down Ballan, but I’m sure he has learned from his mistake. Sagan couldn’t followed Pozzato’s move with Boonen on the false flat, but on Paterberg he kicked hard, went away from the chase group and almost managed to close the gap. I expect Sagan to be in the front group when starting on Paterberg and I doubt anyone will be able to follow him if he kicks like that again this year. Fabian Cancellara is probably the only one able to catch up with Sagan on the final 13 km towards the finishing line, but I can’t see him beat Sagan in a sprint or drop him on the way.

Tom Boonen hasn’t been as strong as last year after his recent crashes and even if he’s able to follow Cancellara and Sagan, he still lack the speed to beat the Slovakian in a sprint. Luckily, Quickstep have a couple of other strong cards to play. Niki Terpstra and Sylvain Chavanel have been showing great shape the last couple of months and you can be certain that both will try their luck.                 

It’s also important to mention Team Sky, when pointing out potential winners. Their tactic of skipping Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and train together on Tenerife instead hasn’t really paid off yet, but it’s also important to remember that the coming races are the ones they have been targeting. I think Geraint Thomas will be on top of his game this Sunday and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to get himself in the front group after Paterberg. Some may think the steep percentages aren’t for Thomas, but don’t forget he dropped the whole peloton on 17% in Tour Down Under earlier this year. Ronde van Vlaanderen is his first big target of the season and together with teammates Edvald Boasson Hagen and Ian Stannard, Team Sky have strong team for Sunday.

Looking at a few jokers, let’s start with Heinrich Haussler. So far it hasn’t worked out for Haussler this spring, but he showed in Gent-Wevelgem to be in great shape. Haussler says that he has never been climbing better than right now, and if he manages to position himself up front when hitting Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg for the last time, he should be able to fight for the podium.

Another good outsider is Luca Paolini. The Italian veteran seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he knows how to ride these races. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblaad after a sneaky move in the final and took second place after Boonen in the peloton’s sprint in E3. Last year Paolini almost closed the gap to the front trio after Oude Kwaremont and even though he isn’t as explosive as Sagan, he still has enough experience to know when to open up and when to save the energy. I doubt Luca Paolini will win Ronde van Vlaanderen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends on the podium.

If you are looking for a super-super joker, look to Zdenek Stybar. He’s only ranked fourth in the Quickstep team for this race, but he is very strong on the hills right now. I would expect him to be in the moves with about 50 km to go and in case the other Quickstep riders strike out, Stybar could the man for a surprising result.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Heinrich Haussler / Luca Paolini / Zdenek Stybar

For live race coverage, as always, go to steephill.tv