Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 1 Preview

There aren’t any tailored stages for the sprinters in this year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco but stage 1 and 2 should still end in a sprint. A sprint in a reduced group that is. We have six categorized climbs on the menu and the last one, Alto de Aiastia (4,8 km / 5,42%), has its top just 7 km from the line.

It’s a good finish for riders with strong downhill skills like Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Cunego, but I think GreenEdge, BMC and Astana will try to keep it together. Especially GreenEdge look strong with Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey for the stage, while Astana have Francesco Gavazzi and Enrico Gasparotto. For BMC, Phillipe Gilbert will be the man for sprint and this is a good opportunity for the World Champion to show he’s ready for the upcoming Ardennes Classics later this month.

With a profile like this one, a break will have a solid chance of making it. Especially if strong riders get away on the last climb and if so, look to the Basque home favorites. Euskaltel are still without a win this season and naturally, they are very eager to perform on home soil. Samuel Sanchez may not be 100% yet - since he's targeting the Giro this year and not this race - but riders like Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón will be ready to fight stage wins. Personally, I expect a lot from Igor Antón, but on this stage I think the Izagirre brothers will shine. Gorka is very strong on the descents, he showed that in the Tour last year, and fast on the line too. He ended 14^th in GP Miguel Indurain on Saturday and he is my outsider for the stage win in Elgoibar Monday afternoon.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Joker: Gorka Izagirre

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Ronde van Vlaanderen - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the second big one day race of the season, and just like last time (Milano - San Remo) my favorite is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian wonderboy has been outstanding the last month or so, and he showed in Gent-Wevelgem that he also has what it takes to go solo in the final and finish it off.

The new racecourse, introduced last year, means no more Kapelmuur but instead three times on Oude Kwaremont followed by and Paterberg. The last time on the two hills starts with 18 km to go and last year it was all back together at this point. I would imagine Omega Pharma Quickstep to have one of their outsiders up the road when it’s time for Oude Kwaremont, but at the top I expect the favorite to be together in front. Fabian Cancellara used this hill to get away when he won E3 and I would imagine him to put the Swiss hammer down again here this Sunday.

Peter Sagan ran out of power on Oude Kwaremont last year when he hit the front of the peloton trying to chase down Ballan, but I’m sure he has learned from his mistake. Sagan couldn’t followed Pozzato’s move with Boonen on the false flat, but on Paterberg he kicked hard, went away from the chase group and almost managed to close the gap. I expect Sagan to be in the front group when starting on Paterberg and I doubt anyone will be able to follow him if he kicks like that again this year. Fabian Cancellara is probably the only one able to catch up with Sagan on the final 13 km towards the finishing line, but I can’t see him beat Sagan in a sprint or drop him on the way.

Tom Boonen hasn’t been as strong as last year after his recent crashes and even if he’s able to follow Cancellara and Sagan, he still lack the speed to beat the Slovakian in a sprint. Luckily, Quickstep have a couple of other strong cards to play. Niki Terpstra and Sylvain Chavanel have been showing great shape the last couple of months and you can be certain that both will try their luck.                 

It’s also important to mention Team Sky, when pointing out potential winners. Their tactic of skipping Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and train together on Tenerife instead hasn’t really paid off yet, but it’s also important to remember that the coming races are the ones they have been targeting. I think Geraint Thomas will be on top of his game this Sunday and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to get himself in the front group after Paterberg. Some may think the steep percentages aren’t for Thomas, but don’t forget he dropped the whole peloton on 17% in Tour Down Under earlier this year. Ronde van Vlaanderen is his first big target of the season and together with teammates Edvald Boasson Hagen and Ian Stannard, Team Sky have strong team for Sunday.

Looking at a few jokers, let’s start with Heinrich Haussler. So far it hasn’t worked out for Haussler this spring, but he showed in Gent-Wevelgem to be in great shape. Haussler says that he has never been climbing better than right now, and if he manages to position himself up front when hitting Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg for the last time, he should be able to fight for the podium.

Another good outsider is Luca Paolini. The Italian veteran seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he knows how to ride these races. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblaad after a sneaky move in the final and took second place after Boonen in the peloton’s sprint in E3. Last year Paolini almost closed the gap to the front trio after Oude Kwaremont and even though he isn’t as explosive as Sagan, he still has enough experience to know when to open up and when to save the energy. I doubt Luca Paolini will win Ronde van Vlaanderen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends on the podium.

If you are looking for a super-super joker, look to Zdenek Stybar. He’s only ranked fourth in the Quickstep team for this race, but he is very strong on the hills right now. I would expect him to be in the moves with about 50 km to go and in case the other Quickstep riders strike out, Stybar could the man for a surprising result.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Heinrich Haussler / Luca Paolini / Zdenek Stybar

For live race coverage, as always, go to steephill.tv

Criterium International: Preview and Favorites

If Paris-Nice is a mini Tour de France, this race is a mini-mini Tour de France. We have a sprint stage, a time trial and an uphill finish, and it’s all within two days.

The first stage is a same one as last year - hopefully without all the crashes in the final - but the following time trial is a little bit different. It has more turns, it’s 500 meters longer and final km is the same one as on stage 1. The time differences won’t be big and even though you lose 10 seconds here, you still have a chance of getting it back on Sunday’s big mountain stage. Especially because there are 10 bonus seconds to the winner on Col de l’Ospedale.

Last year, the final stage had a tough beginning with four climbs within the first 80 km, followed by a long flat section before the final climb. This year, it’s the other way around. The first 50 km are “flat” - it’s always up and down on Corsica - and then we have five categorized climbs on the menu before Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%).

Team Sky bring a very strong team to the race and there is no doubt about who the big favorite is. Chris Froome missed out on the overall win in Tirreno-Adriatico and without Alberto Contador (who is out due a flu), Froome now has the perfect opportunity to take revenge. Criterium International will also be Chris Froome’s first race after his engagement to Michelle Cound, and what better way of celebrating than an win? 

To help him achieve this, Froome can count on support from Paris-Nice winner Richie Porte and in-form Vasil Kiryienka and Kanstantin Siutsou. Youngester Joshua Edmondson (7^th on the mountain stage in Volta Algarve) is also here to help Froome. I think that Team Sky will start their mountain train on stage 3 and - as usually - simply wait for the other riders to drop out the back one by one. The steepest part of Col de l’Ospedale is with 2 km to go and this would be a perfect place for Chris Froome to put in a strong attack and take time on his rivals. Pretty much like Richie Porte did in Paris-Nice.

The final stage of Criterium International ending on Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%). 

Looking at the other contenders for the general classification, BMC have two riders with a good chance of a podium spot; Tejay van Garderen and last year’s winner Cadel Evans. TJ was strong in Paris-Nice (ended 4^th overall) and has set Criterium International as his next target. Cadel Evans wasn’t really on top of his game in Tirreno-Adriatico but he showed in Tour of Oman that he is already very strong. BMC will probably try to get a good overall result with both TJ and Evans, but I think Evans is their best shot. Also, whoever ends up in a supporting role here, will have some goodwill for the Tour de France, when BMC have to pick a designated leader.

Update: Cadel Evans has now told letour.fr that TJ is the team leader for BMC in this race. Therefore, expect TJ to take podium instead of Evans. 

Like TJ, also Andrew Talansky and Jean-Christophe Peraud did very well in Paris-Nice (ending 2^nd and 3^rd overall), and with a time trial and a mountain stage, both should be up there again in Criterium International. Especially Talansky will be eager to take revenge after a poor tactical decision on La Montagne de Lure cost him the chance of winning overall.

My personal outsider is Rein Taaramae. He was originally set to peak in Paris-Nice, but got sick in February and decided to work for Dani Navarro instead. Now Taaramae is showing promising shape and after his 3^rd place in Cholet - Pays De Loire last Sunday, he’s now ready to take on Froome and the other favorites in Criterium International. Taaramae is strong against the clock and Col de l’Ospedale should suit him just fine too. He has Jerome Coppel to help him and I would be very surprised not see Taaramae in the overall top10 when the race is over.

Winner pick: Chris Froome
Podium pick: Cadel Evans Tejay van Garderen

Joker: Rein Taaramae

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Pain & Cheer: Milano-San Remo photos

Sunday's Milano-San Remo will forever be remembered, especially by the riders taking part in the race. Of the 200 starting riders, only 135 finished. Italian photographer Davide Calabresi took the following photos during the challenging weather conditions.

The look in Matteo Montaguti's and Fabian Wegmann's eyes tell the same story about the pain the riders felt on the bike today. In the end Gerald Ciolek gave MTN-Qhubeka the best Milano-San Remo debut possible and it's easy to see Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara had hoped for a different result.

You see more photos by Davide Calabresi from Milano - San Remo at his site by clicking here.

Androni-Venezuela to honor Hugo Chavez

Gianno Savio and his Androni-Venezuela team didn’t manage to take the win in Wednesday’s GP Nobili but they still managed to honor Venezuela’s late president Hugo Chavez by winning the overall team classification. Fabio Fellini took 6^th place, Miguel Angel Rubiano 11^th and Riccardo Chiarini 15^th.

Androni-Venezuela on the podium in GP Nobili.

“We are satisfied. We won the team classification and got important points for the Italian Championship. This was the first race for us after the death of Hugo Chavez and it was important for us to honor him”, Gianni Savio tells C-Cycling.

Androni-Venezuela were wearing black mourning bands in GP Nobili and even though it hasn’t been decided yet, Gianni Savio expect his riders to wear it again in Sunday’s Milano-San Remo.

“We don’t have any favorites or specialists for this race”, Savio explains regarding this team’s chances on Sunday. “We want to get into the breaks and by that honor the race. It has always been my philosophy to honor every race we are taking part in. Our three team leaders are Pellizotti, Felline and Rubiano. I hope they can follow the attacks on Cipressa and Poggio, but I also know that it’s almost impossible to follow a rider like Fabian Cancellara when he attacks. The best scenario for us would be a sprint in a little group with either Felline or Rubiano”.

In-shape Francesco Reda was originally set to start on Sunday but has resigned due to family problems. Reda is being replaced by youngster Diego Rosa who won the Youth Classification in Tour Med.

Milano - San Remo: Preview and Favorites

The added s on 'favorites' in the title may be stretching it a bit, because there is only one true favorite for this race; Peter Sagan. Yes, there are many riders with a good chance of a great result, but there is only one top favorite.

Matt Goss won Milano - San Remo in 2011 and last year his fellow countryman Simon Gerrans crossed the line first. Both are in the race again Sunday, but don’t be surprised if a third Australian ends as best rider from Down Under this time - more on that later.

The last two years, we have seen a break on Poggio make it to the end and each time with Fabian Cancellara taking second place. Last year Cancellara, singlehandedly, made sure the break of three didn’t get caught, but normally you need a group of minimum 5-6 riders in order to stay clear. It also depends on the wind. Naturally, a strong head wind minimizes a break’s chances of winning the race. Regardless of the wind, we will see a lot of movement on Poggio though. Every rider without a fast finish wants to get clear of the bunch and with Peter Sagan in such good shape; even fast guys like Filippo Pozzato and Phillipe Gilbert don’t want to take their chances.

Normally the strong riders’ teams set a high pace on the climbs in order to drop the pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, but knowing Peter Sagan can stay with the best uphill and still win in a sprint, they now need to attack as well. I think this will eliminate the sprinters’ chances this year and I will be very surprised to see a pure sprinter take the win on Sunday.

The big question is how Sagan will do the race. Will he go with the attacks on Poggio or gamble and wait for a sprint in a reduced peloton? Personally, I don’t think Sagan will respond until very near the top of Poggio. He is one of the best on the descents and even if he’s a few seconds behind on the top, he can still join the break on the descent. Of course, Sagan will only attack if it’s a group of strong contenders up front or if some of the other candidates like Gilbert or Pozzato attack near the top.

The final 30 km of Milano - San Remo includes the two climbs Cipressa and Poggio. 

It’s difficult to paint a scenario but I would like to give a go anyway. I’m not saying this is how is going to go down Sunday afternoon, but it might be. If nothing else, you’ll now have someone to point your finger at for being wrong. Here we go:

Update: When I wrote this preview last Monday, Rinaldo Nocentini was still expected to start. He has now decided to skip Milano - San Remo and target Volta Catalunya instead. Therefore, replace his name with Andrey Amador, when you read the following:

Yoann Offredo attacks early on Poggio. Rinaldo Nocentini catches up with him. Later in-shape Mauro Santambrogio puts in a strong attack and joins the duo. The three riders cross the top of Poggio first but right behind them are Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert and Filippo Pozzato. The chasing trio catch the break on the descent and the six guys get a gap of about 20 seconds. Everybody is looking at Sagan, hesitating to work and Offredo gives it another go. Nocentini closes the gap. Gilbert attacks, Sagan after him. The break is back together; time for the sprint. Gilbert opens, but Sagan wins. Pozzato takes second place and Gilbert third. The rest of the peloton cross the line 15-20 seconds down and Heinrich Haussler wins the sprint - there’s your Australian. This little scenario leaves us with the following top10:

1. Peter Sagan

2. Filippo Pozzato

3. Philippe Gilbert

4. Rinaldo Nocentini Andrey Amador

5. Mauro Santambrogio

6. Yoann Offredo

---

7. Heinrich Haussler

8. Thor Hushovd

9. Gerald Ciolek

10. Daniele Bennati

Of course, there are tons of different scenarios but if I had to pick one, that would be it. There a lot of riders able to do something great in this race, but there can only be one winner. Vincenzo Nibali, Fabian Cancellara and Matt Goss all seem to be in very good shape right now, but I keep on coming back to Peter Sagan when I think of a favorite.

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Podium: Filippo Pozzato / Phillipe Gilbert

Jokers: Mauro Santambrogio / Rinaldo Nocentini / Yoann Offredo

For live coverage of the race check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 7 Preview

For the fourth day in a row, we will have a new rider in the blue leader’s jersey. Vincenzo Nibali attacked exactly where everybody expected him to do so, but still no one - except for Purito and Sagan - could keep up with him. Nibali now leads overall with 34 seconds down to Chris Froome and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win Tirreno-Adriatico for the second time in a row.

This time trial is the same as last year and I doubt even Chris Froome can take back more than half a minute on Vincenzo Nibali in just 9,2 km. Nibali has been working very hard on improving his time trial skills and with a new bike and new skin suit he could even end up surprising quite a few on this stage.

Purito is after two good stages now third overall. He is 11 seconds in front of Contador and 21 seconds in front of Kwiatkowski. Once again, his chances of reaching the final podium depend on his time trial. In January, he said he had improved a lot already and now is really the time to show it. It will be more than difficult to keep Contador - and especially Kwiatkowski - behind him but personally, I hope he will manage.

Only 4 corners to tackle during the 9,2 km.
Click for larger view.

Originally, I had Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin as my two big favorites for the stage, but both put in quite an effort on stage 6. Cancellara was in the morning break and Tony Martin took a big turn for Kwiatkowski in order to close the gap. Still, other candidates like Taylor Phinney and Svein Tuft aren’t in the race anymore, so I think we’re back to where we started. 

Tony Martin changed his race schedule (from Paris-Nice to Tirreno-Adriatico) in order to help his team win the opening TTT and then win this stage himself. He managed to win the first one and the chances are quite good he will to win this one too. 

Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom would have been two good jokers for this stage but since both of them were in the big break on stage 6, I’ll look to Movistar to find my jokers. Jonathan Castroviejo started out Tirreno-Adriatico with GC ambitions, but lost time in the last two stages. He is right now 14^th overall but without a chance of making top10. Castroviejo is an excellent time trialist and he’s especially good on these short distances. He will be one to look out for. The same goes for his teammate Alex Dowsett. He is the British national champion and without him, Movistar probably wouldn’t have taken second place in the opening team time trial. Normally we see surprises in the final time trial in a stage race and I think Alex Dowsett could be that surprise.

Winnerpick: Tony Martin

Jokers: Alex Dowsett & Jonathan Castroviejo

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.