Criterium International: Preview and Favorites

If Paris-Nice is a mini Tour de France, this race is a mini-mini Tour de France. We have a sprint stage, a time trial and an uphill finish, and it’s all within two days.

The first stage is a same one as last year - hopefully without all the crashes in the final - but the following time trial is a little bit different. It has more turns, it’s 500 meters longer and final km is the same one as on stage 1. The time differences won’t be big and even though you lose 10 seconds here, you still have a chance of getting it back on Sunday’s big mountain stage. Especially because there are 10 bonus seconds to the winner on Col de l’Ospedale.

Last year, the final stage had a tough beginning with four climbs within the first 80 km, followed by a long flat section before the final climb. This year, it’s the other way around. The first 50 km are “flat” - it’s always up and down on Corsica - and then we have five categorized climbs on the menu before Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%).

Team Sky bring a very strong team to the race and there is no doubt about who the big favorite is. Chris Froome missed out on the overall win in Tirreno-Adriatico and without Alberto Contador (who is out due a flu), Froome now has the perfect opportunity to take revenge. Criterium International will also be Chris Froome’s first race after his engagement to Michelle Cound, and what better way of celebrating than an win? 

To help him achieve this, Froome can count on support from Paris-Nice winner Richie Porte and in-form Vasil Kiryienka and Kanstantin Siutsou. Youngester Joshua Edmondson (7^th on the mountain stage in Volta Algarve) is also here to help Froome. I think that Team Sky will start their mountain train on stage 3 and - as usually - simply wait for the other riders to drop out the back one by one. The steepest part of Col de l’Ospedale is with 2 km to go and this would be a perfect place for Chris Froome to put in a strong attack and take time on his rivals. Pretty much like Richie Porte did in Paris-Nice.

The final stage of Criterium International ending on Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%). 

Looking at the other contenders for the general classification, BMC have two riders with a good chance of a podium spot; Tejay van Garderen and last year’s winner Cadel Evans. TJ was strong in Paris-Nice (ended 4^th overall) and has set Criterium International as his next target. Cadel Evans wasn’t really on top of his game in Tirreno-Adriatico but he showed in Tour of Oman that he is already very strong. BMC will probably try to get a good overall result with both TJ and Evans, but I think Evans is their best shot. Also, whoever ends up in a supporting role here, will have some goodwill for the Tour de France, when BMC have to pick a designated leader.

Update: Cadel Evans has now told letour.fr that TJ is the team leader for BMC in this race. Therefore, expect TJ to take podium instead of Evans. 

Like TJ, also Andrew Talansky and Jean-Christophe Peraud did very well in Paris-Nice (ending 2^nd and 3^rd overall), and with a time trial and a mountain stage, both should be up there again in Criterium International. Especially Talansky will be eager to take revenge after a poor tactical decision on La Montagne de Lure cost him the chance of winning overall.

My personal outsider is Rein Taaramae. He was originally set to peak in Paris-Nice, but got sick in February and decided to work for Dani Navarro instead. Now Taaramae is showing promising shape and after his 3^rd place in Cholet - Pays De Loire last Sunday, he’s now ready to take on Froome and the other favorites in Criterium International. Taaramae is strong against the clock and Col de l’Ospedale should suit him just fine too. He has Jerome Coppel to help him and I would be very surprised not see Taaramae in the overall top10 when the race is over.

Winner pick: Chris Froome
Podium pick: Cadel Evans Tejay van Garderen

Joker: Rein Taaramae

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Pain & Cheer: Milano-San Remo photos

Sunday's Milano-San Remo will forever be remembered, especially by the riders taking part in the race. Of the 200 starting riders, only 135 finished. Italian photographer Davide Calabresi took the following photos during the challenging weather conditions.

The look in Matteo Montaguti's and Fabian Wegmann's eyes tell the same story about the pain the riders felt on the bike today. In the end Gerald Ciolek gave MTN-Qhubeka the best Milano-San Remo debut possible and it's easy to see Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara had hoped for a different result.

You see more photos by Davide Calabresi from Milano - San Remo at his site by clicking here.

Androni-Venezuela to honor Hugo Chavez

Gianno Savio and his Androni-Venezuela team didn’t manage to take the win in Wednesday’s GP Nobili but they still managed to honor Venezuela’s late president Hugo Chavez by winning the overall team classification. Fabio Fellini took 6^th place, Miguel Angel Rubiano 11^th and Riccardo Chiarini 15^th.

Androni-Venezuela on the podium in GP Nobili.

“We are satisfied. We won the team classification and got important points for the Italian Championship. This was the first race for us after the death of Hugo Chavez and it was important for us to honor him”, Gianni Savio tells C-Cycling.

Androni-Venezuela were wearing black mourning bands in GP Nobili and even though it hasn’t been decided yet, Gianni Savio expect his riders to wear it again in Sunday’s Milano-San Remo.

“We don’t have any favorites or specialists for this race”, Savio explains regarding this team’s chances on Sunday. “We want to get into the breaks and by that honor the race. It has always been my philosophy to honor every race we are taking part in. Our three team leaders are Pellizotti, Felline and Rubiano. I hope they can follow the attacks on Cipressa and Poggio, but I also know that it’s almost impossible to follow a rider like Fabian Cancellara when he attacks. The best scenario for us would be a sprint in a little group with either Felline or Rubiano”.

In-shape Francesco Reda was originally set to start on Sunday but has resigned due to family problems. Reda is being replaced by youngster Diego Rosa who won the Youth Classification in Tour Med.

Milano - San Remo: Preview and Favorites

The added s on 'favorites' in the title may be stretching it a bit, because there is only one true favorite for this race; Peter Sagan. Yes, there are many riders with a good chance of a great result, but there is only one top favorite.

Matt Goss won Milano - San Remo in 2011 and last year his fellow countryman Simon Gerrans crossed the line first. Both are in the race again Sunday, but don’t be surprised if a third Australian ends as best rider from Down Under this time - more on that later.

The last two years, we have seen a break on Poggio make it to the end and each time with Fabian Cancellara taking second place. Last year Cancellara, singlehandedly, made sure the break of three didn’t get caught, but normally you need a group of minimum 5-6 riders in order to stay clear. It also depends on the wind. Naturally, a strong head wind minimizes a break’s chances of winning the race. Regardless of the wind, we will see a lot of movement on Poggio though. Every rider without a fast finish wants to get clear of the bunch and with Peter Sagan in such good shape; even fast guys like Filippo Pozzato and Phillipe Gilbert don’t want to take their chances.

Normally the strong riders’ teams set a high pace on the climbs in order to drop the pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, but knowing Peter Sagan can stay with the best uphill and still win in a sprint, they now need to attack as well. I think this will eliminate the sprinters’ chances this year and I will be very surprised to see a pure sprinter take the win on Sunday.

The big question is how Sagan will do the race. Will he go with the attacks on Poggio or gamble and wait for a sprint in a reduced peloton? Personally, I don’t think Sagan will respond until very near the top of Poggio. He is one of the best on the descents and even if he’s a few seconds behind on the top, he can still join the break on the descent. Of course, Sagan will only attack if it’s a group of strong contenders up front or if some of the other candidates like Gilbert or Pozzato attack near the top.

The final 30 km of Milano - San Remo includes the two climbs Cipressa and Poggio. 

It’s difficult to paint a scenario but I would like to give a go anyway. I’m not saying this is how is going to go down Sunday afternoon, but it might be. If nothing else, you’ll now have someone to point your finger at for being wrong. Here we go:

Update: When I wrote this preview last Monday, Rinaldo Nocentini was still expected to start. He has now decided to skip Milano - San Remo and target Volta Catalunya instead. Therefore, replace his name with Andrey Amador, when you read the following:

Yoann Offredo attacks early on Poggio. Rinaldo Nocentini catches up with him. Later in-shape Mauro Santambrogio puts in a strong attack and joins the duo. The three riders cross the top of Poggio first but right behind them are Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert and Filippo Pozzato. The chasing trio catch the break on the descent and the six guys get a gap of about 20 seconds. Everybody is looking at Sagan, hesitating to work and Offredo gives it another go. Nocentini closes the gap. Gilbert attacks, Sagan after him. The break is back together; time for the sprint. Gilbert opens, but Sagan wins. Pozzato takes second place and Gilbert third. The rest of the peloton cross the line 15-20 seconds down and Heinrich Haussler wins the sprint - there’s your Australian. This little scenario leaves us with the following top10:

1. Peter Sagan

2. Filippo Pozzato

3. Philippe Gilbert

4. Rinaldo Nocentini Andrey Amador

5. Mauro Santambrogio

6. Yoann Offredo

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7. Heinrich Haussler

8. Thor Hushovd

9. Gerald Ciolek

10. Daniele Bennati

Of course, there are tons of different scenarios but if I had to pick one, that would be it. There a lot of riders able to do something great in this race, but there can only be one winner. Vincenzo Nibali, Fabian Cancellara and Matt Goss all seem to be in very good shape right now, but I keep on coming back to Peter Sagan when I think of a favorite.

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Podium: Filippo Pozzato / Phillipe Gilbert

Jokers: Mauro Santambrogio / Rinaldo Nocentini / Yoann Offredo

For live coverage of the race check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 7 Preview

For the fourth day in a row, we will have a new rider in the blue leader’s jersey. Vincenzo Nibali attacked exactly where everybody expected him to do so, but still no one - except for Purito and Sagan - could keep up with him. Nibali now leads overall with 34 seconds down to Chris Froome and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win Tirreno-Adriatico for the second time in a row.

This time trial is the same as last year and I doubt even Chris Froome can take back more than half a minute on Vincenzo Nibali in just 9,2 km. Nibali has been working very hard on improving his time trial skills and with a new bike and new skin suit he could even end up surprising quite a few on this stage.

Purito is after two good stages now third overall. He is 11 seconds in front of Contador and 21 seconds in front of Kwiatkowski. Once again, his chances of reaching the final podium depend on his time trial. In January, he said he had improved a lot already and now is really the time to show it. It will be more than difficult to keep Contador - and especially Kwiatkowski - behind him but personally, I hope he will manage.

Only 4 corners to tackle during the 9,2 km.
Click for larger view.

Originally, I had Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin as my two big favorites for the stage, but both put in quite an effort on stage 6. Cancellara was in the morning break and Tony Martin took a big turn for Kwiatkowski in order to close the gap. Still, other candidates like Taylor Phinney and Svein Tuft aren’t in the race anymore, so I think we’re back to where we started. 

Tony Martin changed his race schedule (from Paris-Nice to Tirreno-Adriatico) in order to help his team win the opening TTT and then win this stage himself. He managed to win the first one and the chances are quite good he will to win this one too. 

Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom would have been two good jokers for this stage but since both of them were in the big break on stage 6, I’ll look to Movistar to find my jokers. Jonathan Castroviejo started out Tirreno-Adriatico with GC ambitions, but lost time in the last two stages. He is right now 14^th overall but without a chance of making top10. Castroviejo is an excellent time trialist and he’s especially good on these short distances. He will be one to look out for. The same goes for his teammate Alex Dowsett. He is the British national champion and without him, Movistar probably wouldn’t have taken second place in the opening team time trial. Normally we see surprises in the final time trial in a stage race and I think Alex Dowsett could be that surprise.

Winnerpick: Tony Martin

Jokers: Alex Dowsett & Jonathan Castroviejo

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6 Preview

Chris Froome is the new race leader and it will require something extra from the other favorites to rip the blue jersey of his shoulders. On paper, this may not look like a difficult stage, but I can assure you it is. The two loops of 90 km and one of 28 km around Porto Sant'Elpidio take the riders on a real rollercoaster ride. It’s up and down all day and when it’s up, it’s steep! The climbs aren’t very long but they all have gradients of 10% all the way up to 27%.

Team Sky say they are expecting attacks from everyone on this stage and I would be surprised if not. It will be extremely difficult - even for Team Sky - to control the peloton on these steep hills and the technical descents and narrow roads provide excellent opportunities for riders to attack. The last loop of 28 km includes two small and steep climbs with the top of the last one just 10 km from the line. It’s followed by a very technical descent and only the last 4 km towards the line are really flat. There is a tricky left-right curve with about 1800 meters to go before the final 1500 meters straight out on 7,5 meters wide road.

The Santa Lucia climb is the last
struggle before the finishing line.

I think Team Sky would be happy to let a break get away in the morning and stay away too. Froome doesn’t want any of his competitors to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line so if a break could fight it out between them, Sky would be happy. Still, that doesn’t mean the favorites won’t give a go - especially on the last loop. Sant'Elpidio a Mare is 6,3 km in total - including a 1,5 km descent in the middle - but the last 400 meters have an average gradient of 20% - last 50 meters up to 27%. There is only 6 km from the top of Sant'Elpidio a Mare to the next climb, Santa Lucia, starts. The climb itself is only 1,5 km but has an average gradient of 8,2% and 16% towards the top.

Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali both need to take back 20 seconds on Chris Froome and you can be sure they both want to try on these climbs. Nibali is one of the best riders on the downhill sections and even if he doesn’t manage to drop Froome uphill, he will probably try again downhill.

Astana and Saxo-Tinkoff would like to keep this together and fight for the stage win and the bonus seconds, but it won’t be easy. It’s the last chance for most of the riders to get a result and the expected rain won’t help controlling it either. Strong riders with a fast finish like Tom-Jelte Slagter, Eros Capecchi, Giovanni Visconti, Moreno Moser, Lars Boom and Greg Van Avermaet are all out of the GC and I would expect a couple of these to make it into a winning break. And don’t forget Peter Sagan. He doesn’t seem to be 100% again after his sickness but he’s also a rider capable of winning even when he’s just on 80 or 90%.

I’ve already picked Moreno Moser as my joker twice during this TIrreno-Adriatico and I’ll give him one last chance. You can’t really talk about a favorite for a stage like this one, but of course if Peter Sagan is the man to beat, should he be in the front group in the final. Sunday Tom-Jelte Slagter had to let go of his overall lead in the World Tour standing and I think he is eager to take it back from Richie Porte. He is fast on the line and good on these kind of hills too. Bauke Mollema showed the way for Blanco when he took second place after Purito in Chieti and Slagter could top that one in Porto Sant'Elpidio.

And no; I don’t think the sprinters will be able to stay in front when the GC is this close and the climbs are this steep.

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter & Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Paris-Nice: Stage 7 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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A final time trial to settle the race. Can Richie Porte be beaten? As Greg Lemond said on the eve of the final stage of the 1989 Tour de France “if he has a bad day and I have a good day anything is possible”, and the American went on to beat Laurent Fignon by just eight seconds on the overall.

But that was a memorable exception. Porte is playing at home and the course is short so he should be safe. But still, who knows? What’s more certain is that the final podium places are unknown. Andrew Talansky, Lieuwe Westra, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Tejay van Garderen and more all all within reach.

The Route: the climb itself is part-technical, part obvious. There are no narrow parts, nor sharp bends but given it is just 9.6km, every second counts. The road climbs away from Nice on some steep sections and there is often a tailwind for the first two kilometres. Then the course begins to bend back towards the sea and level off before the midway section of 7% and then it continues on with spectacular views of the sea below. Each section of road matters: nowing when to change down a gear is important, knowing when to change up is even more important.

The Scenario: it’s hard to see past Richie Porte for the stage win. He won after dropping everyone else on the Montagne de Lure and is probably better against the clock then he is at climbing. He’s a local too, living in nearby Monaco and has been known to climb this road several times a day. In addition his team will know all about pacing the effort after Wiggins won last year and can measure themselves against the time checks of others if need be.

But as recounted earlier this week the mighty Eddy Merckx was so sure of winning one year that he posed for photos with the boat offered to the winner before riding the final stage… only for Raymond Poulidor to win the time trial and take the overall.

Andrew Talansky is the other obvious pick. He might be as strong as Porte, after all he felt so good he attacked three times on the Lure. Plus he’s got motivation to ride fast. He’s good at this effort too, last year he almost beat Wiggins in the uphill time trial of the Tour de Romandie. Talking of almost beating Wiggins, last year Westra almost won on the Col d’Eze so he could win in the absence of the Briton.

Van Garderen was an outside for the podium this time last year but fell back after losing over a minute to Wiggins and he’s not been the threat we’d thought he might be but he’s still sixth overall. Chavanel is in great form and did well on the Montagne de Lure, don’t be surprised if he’s amongst the fastest on the second half of the course but the early 8% gradient could be too much, plus his efforts yesterday won him the stage but also the points jersey thanks to an escape move to win the intermediate sprint. Jean-Christophe Péraud is having a good race and perpetuating Ag2r’s points-winning strategy of poaching UCI points without ever being too visible in front of the team cameras. He was third on this stage last year.

Mountains and Points: a note that Chavanel is guaranteed to stand on the podium as he’s got the points jersey competition sewed up.

The same for Johann Tschopp of IAM Cycling with the mountains jersey, giving the new Swiss team their first World Tour podium… and marginally boosting their chances of a wildcard invite for the Tour de France. Tschopp (say “chop”) is an often unknown character in the peloton but he’s a keen environmentalist, taking care to eat locally sourced foods and living as ethically as he can. He won the big stage of the Tour of Utah last year and in 2010, won the biggest mountain stage of the Giro that year, taking the prestigious Cima Coppi prize.

Weather: sunshine and showers with temperatures at no more than 14°C (57°F). Crucially the  wind will pick up in the afternoon with a breeze of 20km/h coming in from the sea in the afternoon, enough to make a noticeable tailwind, headwind and crosswind at different points on the course.

TV: 3.30 – 4.50pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv are the go-to sites for video streams.

History: the Col d’Eze was used as a final time trial for the first time in 1969 and Eddy Merckx won. It was a clever idea to use the uphill TT right at the end but prior to this the race had often been designed by another uphill time trial along the way, for example Mont Dore above Manosque, yesterday’s start town, in 1956.

Since 1969 it has been a regular feature of the race. But the starting and finish points have often changed meaning there is no definitive course record nor an easy way to compare today’s riders with Merckx. Not that the comparison is valid, riders will be using special bikes today with all the aerodynamic advantage possible. Merckx just rode on the drops.

The route now 9.6km and last year Bradley Wiggins clocked a time of 19.12.

Standings after Stage 6