Paris-Nice: Stage 4 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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We’re halfway. The race is maturing and the profile for Stage 4 has more red dots than a teenager with acne.

But the race is far from decided. If Andrew Talansky is the new leader, his advantage on the others is slim and his Garmin-Sharp team will have to work hard to keep him in yellow. A long stage with plenty of climbing awaits and if you get déjà vu later, don’t worry, as the explanation is below.

• km 11.5 – Côte de Lachaud, 4.8km at 5.6% – Cat 2
• km 27.5 – Côte de Condat, 6.9km at 4.4% – Cat 2
• km 87.5 – Côte de la Chomasse, 3.4km at 5.1% – Cat 3
• km 105.5 – Côte de Laprat, 2.1km at 3.8% – Cat 3
• km 136.0 – Col du Rouvey, 2.8km at 5.6% – Cat 3
• km 176.5 – Côte de Talencieux, 2.9km at 8.1% – Cat 2
• km 191.0 – Côte de la Sizeranne, 2.9km at 6.6% – Cat 2

The Route: uphill straight away means a fast start and today looks like breakaway day but it’s all about the composition of a move and who will be let go. By now many teams will want to send a rider up the road so if they miss out they might chase or send riders across. This could keep up across the high plateau and the first intermediate sprint at La Chaise-Dieu (trivia: it translates as “The Seat of God” but actually Chaise comes fromcasa or house, after an abbey). Overall if it’s up and down and with plenty of mountains points available, note the average gradients, there is nothing too serious here and only the Côte de Talencieux gives the climbers an advantage.

The Finish: if you have pachydermal powers of recall then you’ll remember Saint Vallier and the Côte de la Sizeranne featured in the finale of last summer’s Dauphiné on Stage 1 when first Andy Schleck was dropped and over the top Cadel Evans went clear to win in a sneaky late with Andrey Kashechkin and Jérôme Coppel (video).

Once again the route is the same and as mentioned in the stage preview last June the stats supplied don’t match the reality of the climb: it’s listed as 6.6% for 2.9km but steeper than the average suggests, kicking up at 7-8% for the first kilometre, then a tiny dip, before rising up again at more than 7%.

The descent is tricky – again in the Dauphiné several riders messed up the corners – and the finish comes up quickly. The final straight is 500m long and flat.

The Scenario: the overall classification – listed at the bottom of this page – has 28 riders within 26 seconds of Talansky meaning it’s going to be hard for his team to control things, especially with the time bonuses at the finish. Many will want to be in the early breakaway but who will make it? It looks like some riders who have lost time might get an exit visa from the peloton, think of Thomas de Gendt and Bjorn Leukemans (Vacansoleil-DCM), Jérémy Roy and Alex Geniez (FDJ), Martin Elmiger (IAM) as examples of riders who could slip away.

But if it comes back to a sprint note the final climb can dump some riders but Tony Gallopin (Radioshack), J-J Rojas (Movistar) and Jonathan Hivert (Sojasun) are riding well. Also it’ll be interesting to see what Philippe Gilbert does, it’s a day for him but he’s been playing loyal domestique for Tejay van Garderen.

Talansky talks to press; euros are asking "who is this guy?" twitter.com/EuroHoody/stat…
— Andrew Hood (@EuroHoody) March 6, 2013

Andrew who? Apparently some journos were asking who’s Andrew Talansky but remember he won the mountainous Tour de l’Ain last August before finishing seventh in the Vuelta after some consistent riding every day. He was also second in the Tour de Romandie, 12 seconds behind Bradley Wiggins. The 24 year old could be familiar to readers here as he’s on my list of 12 riders to watch this year.

Talansky made the move with Romain Bardet, the local rider. They’re no strangers as back in 2010 they were fighting in the franco-Italian Tour des Pays de Savoie with Talansky winning a stage ahead of Bardet and also Bart de Clerq, a rider 13th overall in Paris-Nice.

Weather: rain clearing and a top temperature of 13°C (55°F) but much cooler at altitude over the Col du Rouvey. In addition the southerly wind is back, it will pick up during the stage to blow at 20km/h from the south-east by the finish in the often windier Rhone valley.

TV: Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and, rum at the ready,cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv have the online co-ordinates for buried pirate video.

Eat: the race passes near Le Puy en Velay which is famous – in culinary circles – for its black lentils which grow in the dark volcanic soils. Supposedly they taste better but they’re also iron rich and a good addition to the cyclist’s diet.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 2 Preview

Omega Pharma Quickstep got the best possible start when they won the opening team time trial and placed Mark Cavendish in the blue leader’s jersey. Now it’s time for the season’s first showdown between Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

Depending on how stage 3 evolves this could be the only stage for the pure sprinters in this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico and naturally, no one wants to miss out. The stage covers 232 km from San Vincenzo to Indicatore and has a very tricky finish. With 1200 meters to go the peloton crosses a railroad overpass while turning left into a roundabout. The weather forecast shows light rain all day long and with many top sprinters in the race - plus GC contenders who want to stay up front - it will almost be a miracle if nobody goes down in that corner. Luckily the riders will have a chance to study the finish as the final circuit of 12,4 km will done five times.

As stated in the beginning, this is the long-awaited dual between Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. It’s the first time this season the two super stars are going up against each other mano-a-mano and it’s almost impossible to pick a winner. Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel have been phenomenal so far this season with an outstanding leadout train, but Mark Cavendish showed in Tour of Qatar that he doesn’t need a leadout to win.

Lotto-Belisol probably won’t have much to say in the overall classification as Jelle Vanendert already is one minute down after the TTT, and without any riders to win the medium stages in this race, Andre Greipel is their only hope. So far, Lotto-Belisol’s leadout train has been impeccable and I don’t see why that should change now. Yes, there are many talented sprinters at the starting line but none of them has a leadout train like Greipel do. With Kaisen, Sieberg, Hansen, Roelandts, Reynes and Henderson to lead him out, Andre Greipel simply can get it any better.

The only one with a kick powerful enough to get a jump on Greipel is Mark Cavendish. No other sprinter can match Cavendish’ kick in the final 200 meters and in the blue leader’s jersey, Cavendish will be eager to show who the best sprinter in the world is. Personally, I think Andre Greipel will win this stage, but if Mark Cavendish manages to position himself on Greipel’s wheel, he might have a chance to surprise the German Gorilla with an early kick.

The way I see the rest of the field are only fighting for the 3^rd place on this stage. Of course, both Greipel and Cavendish can get it wrong, but with only one big chance to win a stage, none of them can afford to miss this opportunity. And yes, Peter Sagan is here too, but even though he seems to be flying these days, I don’t see him beating Greipel nor Cavendish in a pancake flat finish. Maybe he can use his amazing bike handling skills in the rainy conditions to gain some positions in the final, but outsprinting the two big favorites? I doubt it…

It makes it difficult to pick a joker with so many strong sprinters in the race, but I would like to point out Radioshack’s sprinter, Giacomo Nizzolo. The young Italian has started out this season very well but is still without a stage win. He was beaten by Greipel in Tour Med and by Bos in Volta Algarve but last week he won the sprint behind the winning break in G.P. Camaiore. Nizzolo can count on excellent support from Danilo Hondo - who used to leadout Petacchi in the mass sprints - and even though Hondo isn’t much of a leadout anymore, nobody knows their way around the front in the final kilometers like the German veteran. I think Giacomo Nizzolo will have an excellent season this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the podium on stage 2.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Giacomo Nizzolo           

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Paris-Nice: Stage 3 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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Slowly the route changes as the race heads south and Stage 3 starts to include more climbing. The race crosses the Auvergne region in central France and the finish includes a second category climb that’s designed to thwart the sprinters.

The Route
It could be a lot hillier but the race picks its way through the Auvergne without using the famous volcanos. If the weather was better – see forecast below – the riders would get views of the Puy-de-Dôme, once a theatre of high drama in the Tour de France. The route includes two climbs, the Col de Potey which is 3.3 km at 5% and the Côte de la Forêt de la Comté, 3.5 km at 3.8% and they’re both easy and we’re unlikely to discover the identity of the final winner of the mountains jersey.

The Final
For the third and final time the race includes a circuit finish, entering the town of Brioude to then head out on a 28km loop that includes the Côte de Mauvagnat, listed as 2.7 km at 6.7% but in reality much more significant because as soon as the race leaves Brioude the road starts to drag upwards. The road is wide but it’s heading up and the kind of place where a sprinter can shelter if the bunch is going fast but it’s still tiring. The road narrows as the race passes through the village of St Just, and then comes the categorised climb itself, rising up through woodland on a rough old road with sections at 8%. It’s an ideal place to attack because a rider can quickly be out of sight of the bunch. Better still for a fugitive the descent is not the place to coordinate a chase being narrow and with a series of awkward corners.

But with 11km to go things get easier when the descent ends and the race heads back to Brioude for the finish. But the road still twists and turns and there’s a short uphill section with 4km to go, it’s harder than the profile suggests. After this the race heads into town on a big wide road. There’s a roundabout with 1km that’s narrow and then it’s downhill to the finish.

The Scenario
This stage look less suitable for the sprinters and the odds are against Elia Viviani retaining his lead. Some might be able to hold on going over the final climb – if they do, remember them for Milan-Sanremo – but many teams will want to send a rider up the road today in the hope a breakaway sticks so the racing could be fierce for the first hour or more if the right move doesn’t go away.

The finish is selective but not enough to shred the field alone, it will take team tactics, rider commitment and some luck. But it’s the place for Philippe Gilbert and Sylvain Chavanel to have a go, the only thing is that many will be expecting this. There’s time to regroup on the run in and so expect a sprint amongst several names. Think of riders like Tony Gallopin (Radishack), Julien Simon (Sojasun), Borut Bozic (Astana), Samuel Dumoulin (Ag2r), Diego Ulissi (Lampre-Merida), Nico Roche (Saxo-Tinkoff), Peter Velits and Gianni Meersman (OPQS), Xavier Florencio (Katusha), Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews (Orica-Greenedge)… and if the sprinters are there, then Heinrich Haussler (IAM)or J-J Rojas (Movistar).

Local Rider
Ag2r’s Romain Bardet is from the finish town today. It might be too much to expect him to win but he might well show. Certainly local knowledge will help for the finish. And if you don’t see him on the stage you will some other time. Note he’s sitting way back on the overall but that’s because he gave his bike to team mate Maxime Bouet after he punctured on Stage 1.

Weather
The good news is the wind will drop. The bad news is rain is forecast all day with temperatures going no higher than 10°C (50°F).

TV
Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and if you’re hungry, cyclingfans.com orsteephill.tv will serve you the pirate feed.

Local Dish
It’s not for the riders but after a cold day in the rain maybe they’re allowed some aligot. It’s made of mashed potato and melted cheese, mixed with garlic and butter and it forms a stringy paste packed with calories.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 1 Preview

This is the same stage that opened the race last year. It’s only 16,9 km but most of the route is alongside the sea and the wind and the rain could easily be a factor. The weather forecast isn’t very promising but let’s hope all teams get the same conditions - wet or not.

The intermediate time after 7,9 km is right before the more technical part of the route, meaning the fastest team here won’t necessarily win the stage. The teams have been training on the route for a couple of days already and every team with ambitions of winning this stage will know every part of the route down to the smallest detail.

Last year GreenEdge killed the competition and distanced number two (Radioshack) with 17 seconds. This year we have at least three teams with a good chance of winning and naturally GreenEdge are among them again. The Australian team have specialists like Tuft, Mouris, Lancaster and Impey plus riders like Langeveld and Goss who are good in this discipline too. GreenEdge have been training on the course for the past four days and seem to be the big favorite. Still there are two teams with a chance of beating them.

BMC and Omega Pharma-Quickstep both bring very strong teams for this stage. Originally Tony Martin was set to ride Paris-Nice, but in the end he decided to do Tirreno in order to help out the team in this stage and try his luck in the final time trial. Together with Martin, Quickstep have guys like Kwiatkowski, Stybar, Terpstra, Steegmans and Cavendish for the team time trial and they should be able to clock in a top3 time Wednesday afternoon.

Same goes for BMC. Unlike GreenEdge and Quickstep, BMC are extra motivated to do well in team time trial in order give Cadel Evans a good start in the GC. The American team were outstanding in the TTT in Tour of Qatar and that was even without Evans, Hushovd and Quinziato. Personally, I think this will be a fight between BMC and GreenEdge but I wouldn’t count out Quickstep.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff and Radioshack will most likely be the last two teams in the Top5 for this stage and on a good day both of them could make Top3 as well. It all depends on the weather conditions.

With five so strong teams, it’s not very easy to pick a joker but since it’s now a tradition to do so, I’ll say Blanco. The Dutch team have started out the season in a great way - already taking 10 wins - and they do bring a good team for the TTT as well. Bauke Mollema is aiming at the overall classification and I wouldn’t be surprised if they start out Tirreno-Adriatico the same way they have started out the season.

Winnerpick: BMC or GreenEdge

Joker: Blanco

The first team start at 14:45 local time and with three minutes intervals we can expect the last team to finish around 16:10. For live stage coverage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Preview & Favorites

No offense towards Paris-Nice but this year Tirreno-Adriatico is the race to watch, should you only choose one of them. We have all big Tour de France favorites at the starting line and even though the Tour is far away, this could give us some important signs of what to expect in July.

It doesn't matter if you are a Spanish, Italian, Australian, German, British or African supporter. This race gives you a mix of all the best riders in the world and we get to make history as well. More on that in the preview.

The Stages:

Stage 1 - 16,9 km Team Time Trial. Same as last year.

Stage 2 - 232 km Sprint Stage. First dual between Cavendish & Greipel.

Stage 3 - 190 km Hilly Stage. Time for a break? Difficult to control for the sprinters’ teams.

Stage 4 - 173 km Mountain Stage. Same finish on Prati di Tivo (15 km / 7%) as last year.

Stage 5 - 230 km Hilly stage. Typical steep finish in Chieti.

Stage 6 - 209 Undulating Stage. Looks like a sprint stage but is nothing like it.

Stage 7 - 9,2 km Individual Time Trial. Same as last year.

The Favorites:

Looking at the start list there are at least six or seven riders with a real chance of winning this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. First up is Alberto Contador. This is one of the (very) few stage races Contador hasn’t won yet and he is eager to add Tirreno to his palmares. He wanted to come here and win last year, but ended up sidelined for the most of the season instead. Unlike the last couple of years, Contador is now very focused on not peaking before the Tour. He started out a couple of kilos heavier that normally and that was probably why he couldn’t shake the peloton as he normally does in Tour of Oman. I think Contador will be a lot better already and I would be surprised not to see him on the final podium.

My personal pick for the overall win is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. This year Purito is set to peak in April - not in May like last year - and that means his shape is already very good. He showed in Oman that he’s stronger than the other favorites and with 10 bonus seconds on the line each day, I think Purito can make up for this poor time trial skills by winning in Chieti and probably on Prati di Tivo as well.  Purito is coming to Tirreno with big ambitions of winning the race overall and I doubt the other candidates will be able to drop him at any point.

Chris Froome seems to be preparing himself for the Tour de France the same way Bradley Wiggins did last year. He won Tour of Oman overall and with a strong team to protect him in Tirreno, he will be up there again. Still, it’s important to remember this is a very difficult race to control. Stage 4 is pretty straight forward but stage 5 and 6 are up and down the most of the day and Froome needs to keep a tight leash on Purito if he wants to win his second stage race of the season. Froome should be able to count on a strong time trial the last day, but unless he’s within 10-15 seconds of Purito I doubt it will be enough.

Last year’s winner Vincenzo Nibali will be motivated to defend his title with number 1 on the back, but this year’s field is a lot stronger than last year and I doubt Nibali will be able to drop any of the three mentioned riders above. Astana bring a very strong team to look after him and Nibali and count on support from Tiralongo and Brajkovic in the mountains. Still that doesn’t help much if The Shark isn’t able to drop his rivals. Stage 3 and 6 could be two good opportunities for Nibali to put in a few surprise attacks on the undulating roads, but I’m sure I’m not the only one aware of that.

Cadel Evans started out his season in Tour of Oman and that in a very strong way. He distanced Contador and Nibali on Green Mountain and finished 3^rd overall. Evans won Tirreno in 2011 and he has a super team for the opening TTT to help him get the perfect start. If everything works out perfectly for Evans and BMC on the team time trial, he could have a gap of up to 20-30 seconds on his rivals before Prati di Tivo and then he’ll be difficult to overtake. Evans knows the finish in Chieti very well too and even though I won’t pick him as my personal favorite, I won’t be surprised to see him win overall either.

The way I see it the five mentioned riders are the top favorites for this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Just behind these we’ll find riders like Samuel Sanchez, Bauke Mollema, Chris Horner and Damiano Cunego. All expected to do a great race too. Andy Schleck is here too, so just in case you don’t see him during the race, now you know.

It’s very difficult to point out a joker for top GC result with so many strong riders in the race. Still I would like to mention the young Cannondale talent Damiano Caruso. Caruso has been favorite of mine for quite some years now and he showed his strength last year in the Giro wearing the white jersey while supporting team leader Ivan Basso. This year Caruso will get more responsibility and after a good winter season and a strong training camp on Tenerife last month, he should be ready to try his luck. His main goals are the classics next month, but together with Moreno Moser, Caruso should be able to do well in the GC. Maybe even top10 overall.

For other outsiders look to in-shape Rinaldo Nocentini, Michal Kwiatkowski, Eros Capecchi and Mauro Santambrogio. And don’t forget Spanish climber Sergio Pardilla, riding for MTN-Qhubeka p/b Samsung. The African team are making their World Tour debut in Tirreno-Adriatico and while they may not be among the strongest in the team time trial, they are bringing very good riders in Pardilla and Gerald Ciolek. The German sprinter just won the last stage of Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen last weekend and he’s very eager to challenge Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in the mass sprints. Sergio Pardilla will probably lose time in the two time trials, which minimizes his chancer overall, but he should be able to show off the African team’s colors on Prati di Tivo on stage 4.

The Sprinters:

This is not just a race with all the best GC riders, it’s also the first chance this year to see Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel go head-to-head in a mass sprint. Depending on how the stages evolve, stage 2 could be only opportunity to see the two super stars against each other, but don’t forget we also have Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb, Tyler Farrar, Roberto Ferrari, Thor Hushovd, Francesco Chicchi, Matt Goss, Giacomo Nizzolo, Gerald Ciolek and many more sprinters in the race!

The trophy:

Tirreno-Adriatico is famous for its handcrafted trident shaped Sea Master trophy and it’s always entertaining to watch the trophy arise from the ocean and follow its way to the podium. Stefano Garzelli won the race overall in 2011 and told me afterwards that his son saw the podium ceremony on TV and wonderingly asked his mother: “Mama, where are we supposed to put that trophy?”

Top10

It seems like an impossible task to do, but I will try to make a pre-Top10 of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico anyway. Remember, the first four riders all have an equal chance of winning the race. Here we go:

1. Purito

2. Contador

3. Evans

4. Froome

5. Nibali

6. Mollema

7. Horner

8. Samu

9. Cunego

10. Nocentini

Paris-Nice: Stage 2 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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Stage 2 looks like a copy of Stage 1. A flat route, a circuit finish, narrow roads and the sprint teams wanting a win make this look like a repetition of the previous day, no? Only this isn’t so, the stage finish includes a loop through narrow woodland roads reducing the chance of crosswinds and crucially the final kilometre is uphill.

The Route
The race heads south but note the very early intermediate sprint, a chance for the sprinters to get a lead on Sylvain Chavanel who managed to salvage the green jersey in the finish of Stage 1. Then it’s onwards, crossing the Loire valley at Gien, home to Pierre Rolland, Europcar’s Tour de France mountain stage winner and tracking the river parallel as it heads south to Cerilly.

There’s not a categorised climb en route so Vacansoleil-DCM’s Bert-Jan Lindeman can enjoy the day in his mountains jersey; the Dutchman had the waterworks on when he stood on the podium to collect his mountains jersey on Monday.

The Finish
Much of the 18km finishing circuit is made of narrow roads with small grass verges, a ditch and then woodland on both sides. This means protection from the wind but still dangerous as there’s very little room on the road to overtake. Small is the word as the finish town is home to less than 2,000 people.

The view from the finish line looking back downhill, via Google Streetview. Note the slope.

The final finishing straight is an impressive 4km long. Yes, that’s four kilometres and it’s got a mild roller-coaster feel as it rises and dips on the way. Crucially the final kilometre is uphill, rising at 4% to the finish line. This is not big but means some will think twice about gearing and alters the balance.

Contenders
Nacer Bouhanni looked in trouble on Stage 1. The central dividers – mentioned in the preview – split the bunch in half and the French champ was caught on the slower side. But he made it back and got some help from Sylvain Chavanel who launched a long sprint. But this only shows how strong FDJ are with William Bonnet and Geoffrey Soupe working impressively to drop off Bouhanni for the sprint. Bouhanni is a sprinter but he’s good at uphill finishes too so Stage 2 seems ideal for him. But still, he didn’t win by much so expect several others to be in the mix. IAM’s Heinrich Haussler is sprinting and could enjoy this, the same for Jose Joaquin Rojas of Movistar. Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), Baden Cooke and Leigh Howard of (Orica-Greenedge),Romain Feillu (Vacansoleil-DCM), Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre-Merida) are all there.

Weather
Cool temperatures of 12°C (54°F) and a 25km/h headwind for most of the day, some 5km/h more than we got yesterday. It was enough to split the bunch during Stage 1 although it wasn’t just the weather but the work of Omega Pharma-Quickstep. This time things should be different as the finishing circuit is very wooded meaning a lot more protection.

TV
Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and if you’re hungry, cyclingfans.com orsteephill.tv will serve you the pirate feed.

Eat It
Drink it more like. You can’t have fine wine without oak barrels and the woodland around the finish today includes a lot of managed forest where oaks are grown, especially the large Tronçais forest. Much of the wood is used to make the barrels used in wine-making so whilst the finest French wines are not local, many rely on the woodland around the finish. And if you’re hungry, the same woods are full boar and deer.

History
In 1960 live TV coverage of the race was dropped by French television. The first stage ended in Gien and after images were broadcast showing off brands and logos of various corporate sponsors television executives deemed this flouted rules that banned surreptitious ads on TV. After Stage 1 was done all the cameras and production equipment left Gien and headed back to Paris.

Paris-Nice: Stage 1 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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On paper a stage for the sprinters… but just as paper is easily scattered by the wind, so too can the bunch be broken apart by crosswinds in the final. But the weather forecasts vary and the most likely scenario is a bunch sprint and a change in the overall lead.

Here’s the preview of Stage 1 including TV schedules and

The Route
Stage 1 is so flat that the only climb on the route is barely noticeable, 700 metres at 3.3%. Indeed the profile above shows it’s a fourth category climb… whilst the official 2013 rulebook for the race only lists three categories (1-2-3). Just as the highest cols are deemed hors catégorie for the Tour, perhaps this rise in the road is beneath categorisation?

Instead the two intermediate sprints are more tactical. Note time bonuses are available (3-2-1 seconds each time) and so there’s a chance for many sprinters – or breakaway candidates – to win back precious time as the yellow jersey is up for grabs.

The Final
The roadbook suggests a sharp left turn with 500 metres to go but it’s not so bad, the road sweeps. Instead this will be a lively sprint finish because the finale has several central dividing barriers in the middle of the road. Designed to separate traffic, bisecting the bunch is risky. Also the final 550 metres are narrow.

But riders will have a chance to test much of this as the race goes into Nemours and then out again for a 47km loop.

The Contenders
Several teams have sprinters and will want to win the stage. Take Elia Viviani and Cannondale as the Italian is just six seconds of the overall lead and ten second bonus for the win means taking the overall lead. Blanco’s Mark Renshaw is nine seconds back too.

Judging by the prologue results FDJ’s sprint train is going fast with Geoffrey Soupe and William Bonnet in the mix and they’ll try to deliver Nacer Bouhanni although it’s possible they reverse this to help Soupe or Bonnet (a previous stage winner in Paris-Nice) take the overall lead from Europcar. Talking of French rivalry have the erratic Yauheni Hutarovich, sometimes capable of beating the best but an infrequent winner. Will Tom Boonen sprint? With his eyes on the classics you can see the temptation to avoid trouble. IAM’s Heinrich Haussler might think the same too, a stage winner in the past he’s also crashed in the race. By contrast Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), Leigh Howard (Orica-Greenedge), Romain Feillu (Vacansoleil-DCM), Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre-Merida) have to sprint as it’s their job although Petacchi hasn’t won since May 2012 and Feillu’s last win was in June 2011.

Weather
Some forecasts say the wind could reach 40km/h but more conservative estimates suggest a 20km/h breeze from the south south-east is likely. The circuit finish means the clockwise finishing circuit could see crosswinds but the forecast winds don’t look strong enough to blow the race apart. Otherwise temperatures will reach 15°C (59°F).

TV
Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and if you’re hungry, cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv will serve you the pirate feed.

Local Celebrity
Nemours has a castle and some canals isn’t known for much but its housing projects launched the duel musical and boxing career of Daddy Lord C, a rapper who rose to fame in the 1990s who’s still going today, although doubling as a boxing coach. It’s an odd story as this is a market town with its quaint canals (the “Venice of the Gâtinais region”), castle and tidy town hall but its proximity to Paris meant it became a dormitory for the capital and from the 1960s onwards bold social housing projects were launched but they quickly went from utopian vision to, well, something less attractive. The town is now renovating and demolishing a lot of the housing and today’s stage finish is part of the rebranding exercise, to showcase the canals ahead of the canailles.