Tirreno-Adriatico: Preview & Favorites

No offense towards Paris-Nice but this year Tirreno-Adriatico is the race to watch, should you only choose one of them. We have all big Tour de France favorites at the starting line and even though the Tour is far away, this could give us some important signs of what to expect in July.

It doesn't matter if you are a Spanish, Italian, Australian, German, British or African supporter. This race gives you a mix of all the best riders in the world and we get to make history as well. More on that in the preview.

The Stages:

Stage 1 - 16,9 km Team Time Trial. Same as last year.

Stage 2 - 232 km Sprint Stage. First dual between Cavendish & Greipel.

Stage 3 - 190 km Hilly Stage. Time for a break? Difficult to control for the sprinters’ teams.

Stage 4 - 173 km Mountain Stage. Same finish on Prati di Tivo (15 km / 7%) as last year.

Stage 5 - 230 km Hilly stage. Typical steep finish in Chieti.

Stage 6 - 209 Undulating Stage. Looks like a sprint stage but is nothing like it.

Stage 7 - 9,2 km Individual Time Trial. Same as last year.

The Favorites:

Looking at the start list there are at least six or seven riders with a real chance of winning this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. First up is Alberto Contador. This is one of the (very) few stage races Contador hasn’t won yet and he is eager to add Tirreno to his palmares. He wanted to come here and win last year, but ended up sidelined for the most of the season instead. Unlike the last couple of years, Contador is now very focused on not peaking before the Tour. He started out a couple of kilos heavier that normally and that was probably why he couldn’t shake the peloton as he normally does in Tour of Oman. I think Contador will be a lot better already and I would be surprised not to see him on the final podium.

My personal pick for the overall win is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. This year Purito is set to peak in April - not in May like last year - and that means his shape is already very good. He showed in Oman that he’s stronger than the other favorites and with 10 bonus seconds on the line each day, I think Purito can make up for this poor time trial skills by winning in Chieti and probably on Prati di Tivo as well.  Purito is coming to Tirreno with big ambitions of winning the race overall and I doubt the other candidates will be able to drop him at any point.

Chris Froome seems to be preparing himself for the Tour de France the same way Bradley Wiggins did last year. He won Tour of Oman overall and with a strong team to protect him in Tirreno, he will be up there again. Still, it’s important to remember this is a very difficult race to control. Stage 4 is pretty straight forward but stage 5 and 6 are up and down the most of the day and Froome needs to keep a tight leash on Purito if he wants to win his second stage race of the season. Froome should be able to count on a strong time trial the last day, but unless he’s within 10-15 seconds of Purito I doubt it will be enough.

Last year’s winner Vincenzo Nibali will be motivated to defend his title with number 1 on the back, but this year’s field is a lot stronger than last year and I doubt Nibali will be able to drop any of the three mentioned riders above. Astana bring a very strong team to look after him and Nibali and count on support from Tiralongo and Brajkovic in the mountains. Still that doesn’t help much if The Shark isn’t able to drop his rivals. Stage 3 and 6 could be two good opportunities for Nibali to put in a few surprise attacks on the undulating roads, but I’m sure I’m not the only one aware of that.

Cadel Evans started out his season in Tour of Oman and that in a very strong way. He distanced Contador and Nibali on Green Mountain and finished 3^rd overall. Evans won Tirreno in 2011 and he has a super team for the opening TTT to help him get the perfect start. If everything works out perfectly for Evans and BMC on the team time trial, he could have a gap of up to 20-30 seconds on his rivals before Prati di Tivo and then he’ll be difficult to overtake. Evans knows the finish in Chieti very well too and even though I won’t pick him as my personal favorite, I won’t be surprised to see him win overall either.

The way I see it the five mentioned riders are the top favorites for this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Just behind these we’ll find riders like Samuel Sanchez, Bauke Mollema, Chris Horner and Damiano Cunego. All expected to do a great race too. Andy Schleck is here too, so just in case you don’t see him during the race, now you know.

It’s very difficult to point out a joker for top GC result with so many strong riders in the race. Still I would like to mention the young Cannondale talent Damiano Caruso. Caruso has been favorite of mine for quite some years now and he showed his strength last year in the Giro wearing the white jersey while supporting team leader Ivan Basso. This year Caruso will get more responsibility and after a good winter season and a strong training camp on Tenerife last month, he should be ready to try his luck. His main goals are the classics next month, but together with Moreno Moser, Caruso should be able to do well in the GC. Maybe even top10 overall.

For other outsiders look to in-shape Rinaldo Nocentini, Michal Kwiatkowski, Eros Capecchi and Mauro Santambrogio. And don’t forget Spanish climber Sergio Pardilla, riding for MTN-Qhubeka p/b Samsung. The African team are making their World Tour debut in Tirreno-Adriatico and while they may not be among the strongest in the team time trial, they are bringing very good riders in Pardilla and Gerald Ciolek. The German sprinter just won the last stage of Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen last weekend and he’s very eager to challenge Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in the mass sprints. Sergio Pardilla will probably lose time in the two time trials, which minimizes his chancer overall, but he should be able to show off the African team’s colors on Prati di Tivo on stage 4.

The Sprinters:

This is not just a race with all the best GC riders, it’s also the first chance this year to see Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel go head-to-head in a mass sprint. Depending on how the stages evolve, stage 2 could be only opportunity to see the two super stars against each other, but don’t forget we also have Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb, Tyler Farrar, Roberto Ferrari, Thor Hushovd, Francesco Chicchi, Matt Goss, Giacomo Nizzolo, Gerald Ciolek and many more sprinters in the race!

The trophy:

Tirreno-Adriatico is famous for its handcrafted trident shaped Sea Master trophy and it’s always entertaining to watch the trophy arise from the ocean and follow its way to the podium. Stefano Garzelli won the race overall in 2011 and told me afterwards that his son saw the podium ceremony on TV and wonderingly asked his mother: “Mama, where are we supposed to put that trophy?”

Top10

It seems like an impossible task to do, but I will try to make a pre-Top10 of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico anyway. Remember, the first four riders all have an equal chance of winning the race. Here we go:

1. Purito

2. Contador

3. Evans

4. Froome

5. Nibali

6. Mollema

7. Horner

8. Samu

9. Cunego

10. Nocentini

Paris-Nice: Stage 2 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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Stage 2 looks like a copy of Stage 1. A flat route, a circuit finish, narrow roads and the sprint teams wanting a win make this look like a repetition of the previous day, no? Only this isn’t so, the stage finish includes a loop through narrow woodland roads reducing the chance of crosswinds and crucially the final kilometre is uphill.

The Route
The race heads south but note the very early intermediate sprint, a chance for the sprinters to get a lead on Sylvain Chavanel who managed to salvage the green jersey in the finish of Stage 1. Then it’s onwards, crossing the Loire valley at Gien, home to Pierre Rolland, Europcar’s Tour de France mountain stage winner and tracking the river parallel as it heads south to Cerilly.

There’s not a categorised climb en route so Vacansoleil-DCM’s Bert-Jan Lindeman can enjoy the day in his mountains jersey; the Dutchman had the waterworks on when he stood on the podium to collect his mountains jersey on Monday.

The Finish
Much of the 18km finishing circuit is made of narrow roads with small grass verges, a ditch and then woodland on both sides. This means protection from the wind but still dangerous as there’s very little room on the road to overtake. Small is the word as the finish town is home to less than 2,000 people.

The view from the finish line looking back downhill, via Google Streetview. Note the slope.

The final finishing straight is an impressive 4km long. Yes, that’s four kilometres and it’s got a mild roller-coaster feel as it rises and dips on the way. Crucially the final kilometre is uphill, rising at 4% to the finish line. This is not big but means some will think twice about gearing and alters the balance.

Contenders
Nacer Bouhanni looked in trouble on Stage 1. The central dividers – mentioned in the preview – split the bunch in half and the French champ was caught on the slower side. But he made it back and got some help from Sylvain Chavanel who launched a long sprint. But this only shows how strong FDJ are with William Bonnet and Geoffrey Soupe working impressively to drop off Bouhanni for the sprint. Bouhanni is a sprinter but he’s good at uphill finishes too so Stage 2 seems ideal for him. But still, he didn’t win by much so expect several others to be in the mix. IAM’s Heinrich Haussler is sprinting and could enjoy this, the same for Jose Joaquin Rojas of Movistar. Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), Baden Cooke and Leigh Howard of (Orica-Greenedge),Romain Feillu (Vacansoleil-DCM), Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre-Merida) are all there.

Weather
Cool temperatures of 12°C (54°F) and a 25km/h headwind for most of the day, some 5km/h more than we got yesterday. It was enough to split the bunch during Stage 1 although it wasn’t just the weather but the work of Omega Pharma-Quickstep. This time things should be different as the finishing circuit is very wooded meaning a lot more protection.

TV
Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and if you’re hungry, cyclingfans.com orsteephill.tv will serve you the pirate feed.

Eat It
Drink it more like. You can’t have fine wine without oak barrels and the woodland around the finish today includes a lot of managed forest where oaks are grown, especially the large Tronçais forest. Much of the wood is used to make the barrels used in wine-making so whilst the finest French wines are not local, many rely on the woodland around the finish. And if you’re hungry, the same woods are full boar and deer.

History
In 1960 live TV coverage of the race was dropped by French television. The first stage ended in Gien and after images were broadcast showing off brands and logos of various corporate sponsors television executives deemed this flouted rules that banned surreptitious ads on TV. After Stage 1 was done all the cameras and production equipment left Gien and headed back to Paris.

Paris-Nice: Stage 1 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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On paper a stage for the sprinters… but just as paper is easily scattered by the wind, so too can the bunch be broken apart by crosswinds in the final. But the weather forecasts vary and the most likely scenario is a bunch sprint and a change in the overall lead.

Here’s the preview of Stage 1 including TV schedules and

The Route
Stage 1 is so flat that the only climb on the route is barely noticeable, 700 metres at 3.3%. Indeed the profile above shows it’s a fourth category climb… whilst the official 2013 rulebook for the race only lists three categories (1-2-3). Just as the highest cols are deemed hors catégorie for the Tour, perhaps this rise in the road is beneath categorisation?

Instead the two intermediate sprints are more tactical. Note time bonuses are available (3-2-1 seconds each time) and so there’s a chance for many sprinters – or breakaway candidates – to win back precious time as the yellow jersey is up for grabs.

The Final
The roadbook suggests a sharp left turn with 500 metres to go but it’s not so bad, the road sweeps. Instead this will be a lively sprint finish because the finale has several central dividing barriers in the middle of the road. Designed to separate traffic, bisecting the bunch is risky. Also the final 550 metres are narrow.

But riders will have a chance to test much of this as the race goes into Nemours and then out again for a 47km loop.

The Contenders
Several teams have sprinters and will want to win the stage. Take Elia Viviani and Cannondale as the Italian is just six seconds of the overall lead and ten second bonus for the win means taking the overall lead. Blanco’s Mark Renshaw is nine seconds back too.

Judging by the prologue results FDJ’s sprint train is going fast with Geoffrey Soupe and William Bonnet in the mix and they’ll try to deliver Nacer Bouhanni although it’s possible they reverse this to help Soupe or Bonnet (a previous stage winner in Paris-Nice) take the overall lead from Europcar. Talking of French rivalry have the erratic Yauheni Hutarovich, sometimes capable of beating the best but an infrequent winner. Will Tom Boonen sprint? With his eyes on the classics you can see the temptation to avoid trouble. IAM’s Heinrich Haussler might think the same too, a stage winner in the past he’s also crashed in the race. By contrast Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), Leigh Howard (Orica-Greenedge), Romain Feillu (Vacansoleil-DCM), Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre-Merida) have to sprint as it’s their job although Petacchi hasn’t won since May 2012 and Feillu’s last win was in June 2011.

Weather
Some forecasts say the wind could reach 40km/h but more conservative estimates suggest a 20km/h breeze from the south south-east is likely. The circuit finish means the clockwise finishing circuit could see crosswinds but the forecast winds don’t look strong enough to blow the race apart. Otherwise temperatures will reach 15°C (59°F).

TV
Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and if you’re hungry, cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv will serve you the pirate feed.

Local Celebrity
Nemours has a castle and some canals isn’t known for much but its housing projects launched the duel musical and boxing career of Daddy Lord C, a rapper who rose to fame in the 1990s who’s still going today, although doubling as a boxing coach. It’s an odd story as this is a market town with its quaint canals (the “Venice of the Gâtinais region”), castle and tidy town hall but its proximity to Paris meant it became a dormitory for the capital and from the 1960s onwards bold social housing projects were launched but they quickly went from utopian vision to, well, something less attractive. The town is now renovating and demolishing a lot of the housing and today’s stage finish is part of the rebranding exercise, to showcase the canals ahead of the canailles.

Paris Nice - Prologue Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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A prologue to start the 2013 Paris-Nice. If you watched last year’s race this is very different being short, urban and flat. Note the series of corners and junctions on the map above.

The Route

The suburb of Houilles hosts the 2.9km prologue. It’s short and suits explosive riders rather than those capable of cruising at high speed. Accelerate – brake – corner – repeat, all whilst getting the gear shifts right and trying to adopt an aero position. This is not a course for the big rouleurs but instead for prologue specialists and maybe even a sprinter if they’re in good shape.

Intelligent riders will do well to check the course closely and make mental notes or get the team to take rally driver style notes because the line through the corners isn’t obvious with speedbumps, manhole covers and more, the roads are narrow and suburban.

The Prologue Contenders
Amongst the sprinters Marcel Kittel was primarily known as a time trial specialist when he was in the amateur ranks but could do well and if he doesn’t win he could be in contention to collect the leader’s jersey in the coming days. The same for Elia Viviani of Cannondale who is able to make fast accelerations when seated and Blanco’s Mark Renshaw is in form too. FDJ’s William Bonnet is fast in these courses, the same for Brent Bookwalter who’s finished second in the Giro prologue so can’t be ruled out. Watch Katusha’s Simon Špilak because he was second in the Ruta de Sol prologue. Tony Gallopin should be worth watching all week but can do well in the prologue, many in France talk of Thibaut Pinot and Pierre Rolland but Gallopin’s got plenty of talent too. Orica-Greenedge often resemble a giant team pursuit squad and Leigh Howard and Michael Matthews are good picks. Sylvain Chavanel is normally a good prologue rider but this course might be too stop-start for him. The same for Gustav Larsson of IAM but the Swiss team has an inform Martin Elmiger. Europcar’s Damien Gaudin won’t be cited by many but he’s got a track background which will help. Finally two opposites in age, there’s Sky’s neo pro Ian Boswell and who’d rule out Jens Voigt?

TV
The first rider is off at 1.45pm and the last rider will arrive at 4.43pm. The TV will show the later starters with the broadcast beginning at 3.20 – 4.55pm Euro time. It’s broadcast live across a range of channels. Alternatively you can find a pirate video stream via sites like cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv.

Say It
 Houilles
The town’s name might be changed because it’s the butt of jokes.

Eat It
There’s little terroir on this stage, instead it’s banal suburbia. So pop into the café to order a banal croque monsieur, a grilled ham and cheese sandwich.

Celebrate It
Houilles was home to Victor Schœlcher, the man who helped abolish slavery in France. France was one of the last imperial powers to put an end to the practice and Schœlcher worked hard to make this happen. Visit France’s numerous overseas colonies today and the man is celebrated with statues, books and collective memory but on the mainland he’s a discreet figure. Still Houilles has a street named after him and his old home is still there.

Weather
Clear skies but the temperature won’t get past 10°C (50°F) with a light breeze expected from the northwest. The urban course means plenty of shelter but the winning margin will be small and every second counts. But unlike past editions where high winds or rain have changed the results the weather doesn’t look to be a factor.

Paris-Nice: Favorites & Jokers

Right after the three Grand Tours we find Paris-Nice when we talk about the toughest races of the year. It’s still very early and eight days of cold weather, heavy wind and difficult climbs make it a hard race to win. 

Last year Bradley Wiggins came as the big favorite and won. This year it’s very open! Looking at the start list, I see at least four riders with an equal chance of winning. Let’s take a look at them.

Tejay van Garderen has already shown good shape in San Luis and despite the last time trial being on Col d’Eze and not a flat one, I would be very surprised not to see the young American on the final podium. BMC have a strong team of riders to protect TJ on the flat - and windy - stages and according to TJ himself he’s climbing very well these days. It will be difficult for TJ to stay with the pure climbers like Robert Gesink and Nairo Quintana on the final climb on stage 5, but he shouldn’t lose more than he can take back in the time trial. Of course he can’t afford to lose a minute or more, but if he can minimize his time lose to 30-45 seconds I think he’ll end up winning the race.

For Robert Gesink it’s the complete opposite scenario. He needs to gain as much time as possible on the climb and then hope its’ enough to keep strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra behind him in the GC. Blanco have sent a strong team to support Gesink and especially Kelderman and Kruijswijk will be vital on stage 5. Alberto Contador managed to distance number two (Fränk Schleck) with almost a minute on La Montagne de Lure  in 2009 and Gesink probably needs to do the same if he wants to win overall. Together with Nario Quintana he’s my favorite for the stage win that day, but will it be enough?

While TJ needs to minimize the gap on the climb and Gesink needs to minimize the gap on the time trial, I think Andrew Talansky could be the full package. Talansky is strong on the climbs and the uphill time trial suits him perfectly. He has had a great winter season and he always gets better when the rest of the field are getting tired. Talansky was less than a second from beating Bradley Wiggins in the time trial in Tour de Romandie last year and he distanced Robert Gesink on most of the tough climbs in the Vuelta. If Talansky comes to the last three stages without any bad luck or time losses, he will be very difficult to beat, I reckon.

If anybody can beat him though, it’s Lieuwe Westra. The Vancasoleil captain got a big breakthrough in Paris-Nice last year where he won on Mende and finished second on the Col d’Eze time trial (just two seconds behind Wiggins) and according to Westra he’s actually feeling stronger this year. The big question here is if Westra can keep up with the best on La Montagne de Lure. On a good day, he shouldn’t lose more time than he can get back in the time trial, but if he doesn’t have one of his best days, I’m afraid he can only fight for the lower spots on the podium.

The last couple of years I’ve been praising Rein Taaramae but being sick just a few weeks before the race, I doubt he will do much damage. That doesn’t mean Cofidis won’t be in the front though. Buying in new strong riders to help Alberto Contador, Team Saxo-Tinkoff couldn’t effort to keep Daniel Navarro at his current salary, so instead he went to try his luck as team leader of Cofidis. So far it’s been one of the best decisions in Navarro’s career as he has started out the season in a great way.  He stayed with the best on the climbs in Ruta del Sol where he finished 10^th overall and just a few days later he won Vuelta a Murcia. Navarro is not good in the wind, but if he can manage to position himself up front in the flat stages and come to mountain stage without a significant time loss I think he can do some real damage. The climbs in this race suits him very well and he really likes Col d’Eze too. Last year he surprise quite a few - myself included - when he finished 11^th on the that time trial and being a lot stronger this year and having to prove himself as team leader, I think Navarro is set for minimum top5 overall.

Before ending this preview, I would like to point out Nairo Quintana again. I know I already said it many times last year, but this guy is a future Grand Tour winner. He makes the toughest climbs look like nothing and I won’t hesitate to pick him to win stage 5. If Quintana really has a great day he can distance the rest of the field with about a minute on this stage and if he can attack Col d’Eze the same way he actually has a chance of winning this race overall. The way I see it, Nairo Quintana can either win Paris-Nice of end around top5-10. With strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra, winning might be too much to ask for, but I’m sure Quintana will show you why he needs to be mention among the race favorites.

As always, I have a few jokers too. First up is Ion Izagirre. The Basque fighter showed in the Giro last year that is to be taking seriously and he has started out this season in a very strong way. He finished 4^th overall in Tour Down Under and put it some strong attacks in Ruta del Sol where he ended 15^th overall. He can count on support from his brother Gorka and pure climber Mikel Nieve who also did well in Ruta del Sol. Izagirre is good in the short prologs and the climbs in Paris-Nice suit him just fine. He won’t win this race, but I’m sure you will notice him.

My second joker is Maxime Monfort. He was very close to winning Tour Med overall, but couldn’t keep up with Thomas Löfkvist on the steep climb. Monfort was also hit by the stomach flu that kept many riders from doing their best but I’m sure he will be ready for Paris-Nice. Last year he finished 7^th overall and despite a significant stronger field this year, I still think he will finishi in close to Top10. The big climb isn’t too steep for Monfort and the final time trial on Col d’Eze shouldn’t be too much for him either. Monfort is good against the clock and he’s never too far off on the climbs.

Like I wrote in the beginning, the field for Paris-Nice 2013 is very strong and the race very open! I think the winner will be one of the first four mentioned, but there is a large group of riders ready to challenge them. Here I’ll try to give my view on the final classification:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Andrew Talansky

3. Robert Gesink

4. Lieuwe Westra

5. Daniel Navarro

6. Nairo Quintana

7. Richie Porte

8. Jakob Fuglsang

9. Denis Menchov

10. Ion Izagirre

11. Michele Scarponi

12. Jean-Christophe Peraud

13. Maxime Monfort

14. Peter Velits

15. Rui Costa

16. Bart de Clercq

17. Gorka Izagirre

18. Mikel Nieve

19. Simon Spilak

20. Sylvain Chavanel

Strade Bianche: Favorites & Jokers

This may be the strongest field for Strade Bianche so far and therefore very hard to predict a winner. Fabian Cancellara won last year after an amazing solo effort the last 12 km and together with wonder boy Peter Sagan, he is the big favorite. The way I see it there are two likely scenarios.

Scenario 1:

Peter Sagan has one his great days and keeps staying in front when it matters. Sagan is an equilibrist on a bicycle and the white gravel roads should not give him any problems. He is among the best riders on the small steep hills and most likely the fastest rider in the race as well. He won two stages in Tour of Oman before having to withdraw with a sore throat and Thursday he showed to be back as he won GP Camaiore. Knowing how strong he is, you simply cannot rule out Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Strade Bianche. His aim is to win Milano - San Remo and/or Ronde van Vlaanderen this year and taking a win Saturday afternoon will definitely boost his morale. Sagan has Moreno Moser to help him in the finale and Moser showed last year that he can do whatever it takes to bring Sagan to victory. He showed that again in GP Camaiore when he kept the speed up in the break for last three kilometers before Sagan took over in the sprint.

In this first scenario, Peter Sagan wins Strade Bianche thanks to his technical skills and fast sprint on last few hundred meters. Probably in front of Cadel Evans and Oscar Gatto.

Scenario 2:

Fabian Cancellara shows same strength as last year and manages to get away solo. If Peter Sagan does not have any teammates in the final, is caught by bad luck or simply does not have a good day, I doubt any will be able to follow Cancellara. I think BMC will be the only team with more than one rider in the final group - both Greg van Avermaet and Cadel Evans should be there - but I doubt any of them will have what it takes to catch Cancellara. Evans will probably try to dig deep before having a go in Tirreno-Adriatico, but it might very well only be for second place no matter what.

In this second scenario, Fabian Cancellara wins Strade Bianche after a solo attack like last year. Cancellara is very strong right now and remember that a third win of the race will give him a white gravel road named after him. A win here will boost his morale for the upcoming classics and knowing the roads and how to attack them, Cancellara will be very difficult to keep down this Saturday. Like in the first scenario, Cadel Evans takes second place here, probably with Marco Marcato or Giovanni Visconti as the last rider on the podium.

As you can see Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara are the two big favorites but if any of these two should strike out, I think Cadel Evans will be ready to take his chance. Evans was outstanding on the epic white gravel stage in the Giro back in 2010 and together with in-form Greg van Avermaet he should be able to do some damage.

Last year I picked Oscar Gatto as my winner pick and he turned out to be one of the strongest rider in the race taking third place after having to get back from a couple of punctures in the final. Last week I said I think Gatto will have a great spring season and this is without a doubt one of the best races for him. Gatto is great on the small hills - don’t forget how he distanced Contador and the rest of the Giro field on a steep finish two years ago - and very fast on the line too. Last year only an outstanding Fabian Cancellara was able to distance Oscar Gatto and even though it’s a stronger field this year, I think Gatto will be there in the final once again.

As always, I would like to mention a few more jokers. Riders like Francesco Reda and Marco Marcato are very strong right now and both seems to be the designated leaders of their respective teams. Reda ended 6^th last year in Strade Bianche and has been having a great season so far with Gianni Savio’s Androni team. He took 3^rd place overall in Tour Med, finished 2^nd in Trofeo Laigueglia and 7^th in GP Camaiore in the same selective group as winner Peter Sagan. Marcato has big hopes for this spring season and showed in Oman to be in great shape already. In Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he was the first rider to respond to Sep Vanmarcke’s furious attack on Molenberg and I would expect him to be among the favorites in the final on Saturday. He is good uphill and very fast on the line.

For other candidates look to fast riders who are good on the hills like Giovanni Visconti, Rinaldo Nocentini, Lars Boom and Damiano Cunego.

Not to forget: First man through the last corner wins the race.

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Peter Sagan - Fabian Cancellara

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Cadel Evans - Oscar Gatto - Marco Marcato

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Francesco Reda - Giovanni Visconti - Damiano Cunego

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad: Favorites & Jokers

Sep Vanmarcke surprised many last year when he outsprinted Tom Boonen for the win and I wouldn’t be surprised if another outsider takes the win this time. Most of all because they aren’t any top top favorites on the start list. Tom Boonen is here, yes, but not in the shape he would have liked to be in, and therefore we have to look to Terpstra and Chavanel to find the team leaders of Quickstep this Saturday. 

Niki Terpstra has shown to be very strong right now and he is not afraid of attacking. If the weather conditions blow the race apart early my pick for winner will be Terpstra. It does require he attacks and gets away alone though. Despite not being slow on the line, I simply can’t see him beat other candidates like Jurgen Roelandts, Greg Van Avermaet or Filippo Pozzato in a sprint.

In this very moment, my own personal favorite is Filippo Pozzato. I think he will have a great spring season this year, winning a least one of the big classics. Last year he waited too long in Ronde van Vlaanderen and made a horrible tactical mistake in Paris-Roubaix - I doubt he will fail like that again. Pippo showed in Trofeo Laigueglia that he is in great shape already and being fast on the line and strong on the hills, it be very difficult to drop him.

Greg Van Avermaet too is very fast on the line - even faster than Pozzato - and he must be named as one of the favorites. The reason why he isn’t my first pick is because of the strong team BMC send to the race. With Hushovd, Oss, Phinney, Blythe and in-form Schar in addition to Van Avermaet, the chances of one of those getting into the final break and therefore not pulling for a sprint is quite high. I would imagine BMC have Van Avermaet set as their designated leader, but everything can happen in these races.

I think it will be an advantage only to have one captain this Saturday and that’s why I also name Jurgen Roelandts among the best winner candidates. Roelandts was very strong in Tour Méditerranéen and being the only team leader on Lotto-Belisol - who are winning as they please this season - I would be surprised not to see him in front on Saturday. He finished last season in a very strong way and this could be his chance finally to breakthrough in the classics. Roelandts is very fast and the way he won the stage to Grasse in Tour Med really showed he is one to take seriously for this race and the up-coming classics.

Other strong candidates for the win are Lars Boom and Juan-Antonio Flecha but like Terpstra these two need to get away alone or in a group without sprinters in order to win.

As always, I have a couple of jokers for you too and the first one is no stranger if you regularly visit this site. Oscar Gatto got a little breakthrough last year with strong attacks but the best has yet to come. Being the sole captain of Vini-Fantini in the classics, the responsibility is naturally bigger now and I think Gatto will prove to be worthy of it. Gatto is very fast on the line and very difficult to drop on the hills. He is not afraid to take initiative and attack from a far and with Strade Bianche coming up soon, this would be an excellent opportunity for Gatto to build some self-confidence and show he is rider to look out for in the Spring Classics this season.

My second joker is Zdenek Stybar. Few riders can match Stybar’s shape right now - thanks to cyclocross in the winter - and even though he is very inexperienced in these kind of races, he sure has the power to fight for the win. Stybar is good on these hills and fast too should it come to a sprint. As already mentioned, Quickstep have a lot of riders to play out this Saturday, but don’t be surprised if Stybar ends up being their man for the win.

For a super joker look to Martin Elmiger. The Swiss veteran has had a great start of the season for the new IAM Cycling team and even though Heinrich Haussler is the team captain here, I’m sure Elmiger will put in at least a couple of attacks. I will expect him to get into the big break of the day and that could very well prove to be important if the race splits up early. Elmiger is very strong and on a good day not too slow in a sprint either. I will be a big surprise should he take the win, but under the right circumstances he might just surprise and get on the podium.

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Pozzato - Roelandts - Van Avermaet

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Boom - Flecha - Terpstra

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Gatto - Stybar - Elmiger