TDU Preview - Stage 2

As predicted nobody could touch Andre Greipel on stage 1, but Arnaud Démare sure was the strongest of the rest, taking 2^nd place after an impressive kick in the final. Now it’s time to switch focus from the sprinters to the puncheurs as Tour Down Under takes on the first real struggles for the GC contenders.

Corkscrew Road is a steep one to get over this early in the season and despite it only being 2,4 km the average gradient of 9,5% will make a huge impact on the final classification. Every team with GC ambitions will try to deliver their guy in front and with a  super fast descent towards the climb and a narrow turn as it starts, we are in for a hectic - and probably very chaotic – final kilometers before it goes uphill.

Looking at the climb the steepest part is at beginning with sections of 20% as the riders later struggle through 4 hairpins before it evens out (about 5%) near the top. The Australian National Team have been training on these roads many times, so you can use all the local riders will be eager to try their luck. Especially Simon Gerrans who seemed very happy with taking 3 bonus seconds on stage 1. So did Phillipe Gilbert and I think it will be a fight between these two and a handful of other riders for the win in Rostrevor.

It will be a fast finish as the last 7 kilometers from the top of Corkscrew Road are downhill towards the finishing line and according to the race organizers, riders are set to reach a speed of almost 100 km/h on their way to the line. Still the wind can be an issue as a head wind will in the valley will make it difficult for a small group to keep the peloton at bay.

Except for the Australian riders you have to keep an eye on the Movistar team. My pre-pick for the final podium - and a strong contender for the this stage - Eros Capecchi, stroke out on Stage 1 (lost 1:19 min after preparing the sprint for JJ Rojas) so I’m not sure what to make of him, even though the finish is perfect for his characteristics. He could be man for a morning break, but with the bonus seconds being so important it will be very difficult for an early breakaway to make it. Guys like Javier Moreno, José Herrada and Giovanni Visconti all have what it takes to attack in this terrain, but again, it won’t be easy to drop Gerrans and Gilbert.

Edvald Boasson Hagen must be mentioned among the big favorites for the stage too, but he needs to stay with the explosive riders on the steep parts of Corkscrew Road. One could argue that he's strong enough on the descent to catch up, but don't forget that Gilbert too is very good on the downhill sections. Another chance for EBH is if ends up in a sprint, but unless there's a head wind on the final kilometers I doubt it will come down to that.

Thomas De Gendt showed he wants to challenge the favorites in the GC as he took bonus seconds on stage 1 as well and being stronger than normally this early in the season, he could be a dangerous outsider for the stage and for the overall classification. In my “Favorites”-piece I’ve put down Tom-Jelte Slagter for a top5 spot in the GC and I think he will try to attack on Corkscrew Road. He’s strong on the steep parts and actually fast on the line too. If anyone was to drop Gerrans and Gilbert on Corkscrew Road my money would be on Slagter or Moreno.

If you are looking for a super joker, try Tim Wellens. The young Belgian is a great climber and fast on the line as well. Lotto-Belisol have been in Australia for a while, getting ready for Tour Down Under and I wouldn't be surprise to see Wellens mingle with the best on Corkscrew Road. 

Winnerpicks: Phillipe Gilbert / Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Javier Moreno / Tom-Jelte Slagter

TDU Preview - Stage 1

The first stage of Tour Down Under is a typical sprint stage. It’s only 135 km and that means we are in for another fast and furious finish. There is a few bumps on the profile, but only one categorized climb (Checker Hill Road, 4 km / 5% avg.) and from the top there’s still about 90 km to go.

The riders will get to know the finish line as the cross it twice before it counts and with the last kilometers on a straight, flat out road it will surely be a fight between Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano to get their leadout-trains in order.

Argos-Shimano seemed to have timed it perfectly in People’s Choice Classic but on the last lap the team fell apart and Marcel Kittel was left alone without a chance to battle against Lotto-Belisol. Argos-Shimano have always been focusing on making the perfect leadout-train and I think they are very eager to make up for their mistake in their first season on the World Tour.

That being said it won’t be easy against Andre Greipel who’s computer showed a max speed of 73,8 km/t  towards the finishing line in People’s Choice Classic. It’s clear that if Lotto-Belisol get the lead on the last kilometer with Greg Henderson as the last man before Greipel, nobody will be able to pass him. These days the leadout-trains are more important than ever, keeping the speed extra high and even though guys like Andrea Guardini and Arnaud Demare have an impressive kick I doubt they will be able to pass Greipel with a perfect leadout.

With the long straight out finish I can’t imagine Argos-Shimano or Lotto-Belisol not taking the lead and if so the way is made for Kittel and Greipel. Still I do believe Demare will have his saying too. He’s has been doing a little bit of cyclo-cross before heading to Australia and FDJ really worked hard to put him in a good position last Sunday. So despite being attacked by a koala, I still think he’ll be the best pick if the two big favorites strike out.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel / Marcel Kittel

Joker: Arnaud Demare

Favorites for Tour Down Under

As usual the new cycling season kicks off Down Under in Australia and even though it looks like a sprinter's delight the winner will be found among those who can climb.

Last year Alejandro Valverde handed the victory to Simon Gerrans when he stopped pedaling on the final meters in Stirling. Valverde later won the uphill finish on Willunga Hill in front of Gerrans, but because of the lost bonus seconds in Stirling, the comeback Spaniard had to see home soil favorite Gerrans take the overall win.

This year Simon Gerrans is back to defend the title, but Alejandro Valverde is missing and to be honest I doubt Gerrans will be able to make a double. Last year GreenEDGE had to win overall as an Australian team on home soil in their first season, but this time around they have other goals during the season. Of course Simon Gerrans will be eager to repeat what he did last year, but I see at least a handful of other riders ready to challenge Gerrans on Corkscrew Road and Willunga Hill.

First up is Phillipe Gilbert. Showing off his rainbow jersey for the first time this season I expect him to win at least one stage during the week. Gilbert says he’s very motivated and eager to get going and according the World Champion himself, the steep climb on Corkscrew Road shouldn’t be enough to drop him. As always the bonus seconds will be very important for the overall classification and if Gilbert can take a stage win (probably in Stirling) and stay in the front on Willunga Hill and Corkscrew Road, I think he will be very tough to beat.

My other personal favorite for the final podium is Eros Capecchi. I’ve had a good eye for Capecchi for many years now, so far without him showing his full potential, but I have a feeling 2013 will be his year. This is his first season with Movistar and according to Capecchi he aims to start out this year in a strong way. It’s true that Movistar have many cards to play in this race (Visconti, Moreno, Amador, Rojas & Herrada all capable of taking a stage win) but being fast on the line, strong uphill and great on the descents I think Capecchi will be one to watch for the overall classification.

Among the other GC contenders I would like to point out Tom-Jelte Slagter, Matt Lloyd, Peter Velits and of course Edvald Boasson Hagen. While the three first riders all have their strength in the uphill sections, Eddy has the advantage of being in the mix in the three predicted sprint finishes and thereby take some valuable bonus seconds. Last year he wasn’t really on top of his game in Tour Down Under, but having trained very hard towards the Classic season, I think he’ll be able to stay near the front when the more explosive riders make their moves.

For the mass sprints I think it’s clear to everybody that Andre Greipel is the man to beat. Lotto-Belisol did everything right in the People’s Choice Classic race and unless Argos-Shimano manage to take the front and lead out Marcel Kittel the same way, it won’t be a problem for the German Gorilla to take a couple of stage wins.

Personally I’m looking forward to seeing how youngster Andrew Fenn will do against the big sprinters. Same goes for Steele Von Hoff and Jonathan Cantwell. I have a feeling Cantwell will surprise you in this race with some good sprints. Team Saxo-Tinkoff sure seem eager to put him in the right position.

I will be posting previews for all the stages the evening (CET) before the stage starts so instead of talking much more about the route, I will leave you with my Top10 for the overall classification.

1.       Phillipe Gilbert

2.       Eros Capecchi

3.       Simon Gerrans

4.       Edvald Boasson Hagen

5.       Tom-Jelte Slagter

6.       Matt Lloyd

7.       Peter Velits

8.       Javier Moreno

9.       Chris-Anker Sørensen

10.     Gorka Izagirre

Lance Armstrong Interview Part 2 - Full video

For those who missed part two of Oprah's interview with Lance Armstrong, here is your chance to watch it:

And if you want the full transcript of the interview, click here.

Watch Armstrong's doping confession - Full video

In case you missed Lance Armstrong's doping confession on Oprah last night, you now have a chance to see it for the first time or to re-watch it from YouTube right here:

Oprah: Did you ever take banned substances to enhance your cycling performance?
Lance: Yes

Oprah: Was one of those EPO?
Lance: Yes

Oprah: Did you ever blood dope or use blood transfusions?
Lance: Yes

Oprah: In all seven of your Tour de France wins did you ever take banned substances or blood doping?
Lance: Yes

Oprah: Was it humanly possible to win the Tour de France without doping seven times in a row?
Lance: Not in my opinion.

Giro d’Italia wild cards - Garzelli is back

According to RCS member Stefano Diciatteo this is how the
'Giro wild cards vote' ended. / Picture from Twitter.

Today RCS revealed the final three wild cards for this year’s Giro d’Italia and not surprisingly Colombia - Coldeportes, Vini Fantini & Bardiani-CSF all made the cut.

Inviting Vini Fantini also means that RCS are giving Stefano Garzelli a chance to ride his last Giro d’Italia after he was left out last year (read more about that here). Garzelli has already won the KOM jersey twice in the Giro and in his last race he wishes to make it three despite hard competition from some of the other wild card teams. Especially Colombia - Coldeportes will have their saying in that competition as they are set to bring pure climbers like John Darwin Atapuma, Fabio Duarte and Esteban Chavez to the race.  

Bardiani-CSF won’t have Domenico Pozzovivo and Gianluca Brambilla to back this year, but Sacha Modolo will be interesting to follow in the sprint finishes while Enrico Battaglin, Stefano Pirazzi and youngun Francesco Manuel Bongiorno will get a chance to shine in the mountains.

It’s clear to see that RCS, with these wild cards, are giving Italian cycling a helping hand after what happened last year with Team NetApp. New swiss team IAM Cycling and Kastusha were both left out, despite very strong riders on the team, and even though Kastusha still have a chance (depending on the CAS hearing) to ride the Giro, IAM Cycling must feel a bit overlooked by RCS.

What do you think? Did RCS invited the right teams? Leave you comment below!

Contador set to start out strong?

Contador in San Luis.

Alberto Contador was sidelined the first half of the season last year before comming back winning the Vuelta España and it seems like the Saxo-Tinkoff captain wants to start out 2013 the way he ended 2012.

First race of the new year is Tour San Luis (21^st-27^th of January). Despite not showing up on the official race results, Alberto Contador had a great time in Argentina last year where he won the two big mountain stages and originally ended 2^nd overall. This year’s edition of the Argentinean race features the two very same mountain top finishes and as Alberto Contador always tries to add as many stage race wins to his palmarés as possible, it will be a surprise if he’s not among the riders fighting for the overall win.

The second - and so far only other known race on Contador’s 2013 calendar – is (according to Biciciclismo) Tour of Oman. The ASO-organized race will take place from the 11^th to the 16^th of February and like the last two years, the steep mountain top finish on Green Mountain (10% avg.) is set to make a decisive impact on the final GC. Robert Gesink won the stage in 2011 and took the overall win while Vincenzo Nibali won on Green Mountain last year and ended 2^nd overall. Alberto Contador has never before taking part in Tour of Oman and if he finishes Tour San Luis in good shape I won’t hesitate to put him down as the big favorite for the overall win in Oman.

What do you think? Will Alberto Contador start out 2013 winning in Argentina and Oman? Leave your comments below.