As usual
the new cycling season kicks off Down Under in Australia and even though it
looks like a sprinter's delight the winner will be found among those who can
climb.
Last
year Alejandro Valverde handed the victory to Simon Gerrans when he stopped pedaling
on the final meters in Stirling. Valverde later won the uphill finish on
Willunga Hill in front of Gerrans, but because of the lost bonus seconds in
Stirling, the comeback Spaniard had to see home soil favorite Gerrans take the
overall win.
This
year Simon Gerrans is back to defend the title, but Alejandro Valverde is
missing and to be honest I doubt Gerrans will be able to make a double. Last
year GreenEDGE had to win overall as an Australian team on home soil in their
first season, but this time around they have other goals during the season. Of
course Simon Gerrans will be eager to repeat what he did last year, but I see
at least a handful of other riders ready to challenge Gerrans on Corkscrew Road
and Willunga Hill.
First up
is Phillipe Gilbert. Showing off his rainbow jersey for the first time this
season I expect him to win at least one stage during the week. Gilbert says he’s
very motivated and eager to get going and according the World Champion himself,
the steep climb on Corkscrew Road shouldn’t be enough to drop him. As always
the bonus seconds will be very important for the overall classification and if
Gilbert can take a stage win (probably in Stirling) and stay in the front on
Willunga Hill and Corkscrew Road, I think he will be very tough to beat.
My other
personal favorite for the final podium is Eros Capecchi. I’ve had a good eye
for Capecchi for many years now, so far without him showing his full potential,
but I have a feeling 2013 will be his year. This is his first season with
Movistar and according to Capecchi he aims to start out this year in a strong
way. It’s true that Movistar have many cards to play in this race (Visconti,
Moreno, Amador, Rojas & Herrada all capable of taking a stage win) but
being fast on the line, strong uphill and great on the descents I think
Capecchi will be one to watch for the overall classification.
Among
the other GC contenders I would like to point out Tom-Jelte Slagter, Matt
Lloyd, Peter Velits and of course Edvald Boasson Hagen. While the three first
riders all have their strength in the uphill sections, Eddy has the advantage of
being in the mix in the three predicted sprint finishes and thereby take some valuable
bonus seconds. Last year he wasn’t really on top of his game in Tour Down
Under, but having trained very hard towards the Classic season, I think he’ll
be able to stay near the front when the more explosive riders make their moves.
For the
mass sprints I think it’s clear to everybody that Andre Greipel is the man to
beat. Lotto-Belisol did everything right in the People’s Choice Classic race
and unless Argos-Shimano manage to take the front and lead out Marcel Kittel
the same way, it won’t be a problem for the German Gorilla to take a couple of
stage wins.
Personally
I’m looking forward to seeing how youngster Andrew Fenn will do against the big
sprinters. Same goes for Steele Von Hoff and Jonathan Cantwell. I have a
feeling Cantwell will surprise you in this race with some good sprints. Team
Saxo-Tinkoff sure seem eager to put him in the right position.
I will
be posting previews for all the stages the evening (CET) before the stage
starts so instead of talking much more about the route, I will leave you with
my Top10 for the overall classification.
1.
Phillipe
Gilbert
2.
Eros
Capecchi
3.
Simon
Gerrans
4.
Edvald
Boasson Hagen
5.
Tom-Jelte
Slagter
6.
Matt
Lloyd
7.
Peter
Velits
8.
Javier
Moreno
9.
Chris-Anker
Sørensen
10. Gorka
Izagirre
