Giro d’Italia 2013 - One for Wiggins?

Wiggins in Maglia Rosa in 2010 - Will he try to win it next year?

A few days ago British Cycling coach Shane Sutton said that he would like Bradley Wiggins to aim at winning all three Grand Tours, meaning targeting Giro d’Italia and Vuelta España instead of Tour de France in the near future. Yesterday the route for next year’s Giro d’Italia was revealed and here we saw a 55,5 km individualtime trial on the menu.

Bradley Wiggins showed in the Vuelta last year that he can stay close to the best climbers on the steep parts in the mountains and the way Team Sky are rearming for the new season, they will be very difficult to beat - as if they weren’t already…

Earlier this year Chris Froome told me that he “would be disappointed not to be allowed to at least try and win the Tour de France next year” and knowing Froome very well could turn out to be the strongest rider in the Tour once again, I think Wiggins might be happy aiming at the Giro instead. It sure would make things a lot easier for Team Sky and with three stages against the clock (55,5 km time trial, 19,4 km mountain time trial and a 17,4 km team time trial) in the Giro d’Italia next year, I think it would be wise for Wiggins to follow Shane Sutton’s advice and try to put another Grand Tour on his palmares. 

You can see all the stages for next year's Giro d'Italia right here.

Preview of Giro di Lombardia

After a long and very interesting season it’s now time for the last big race in 2012; Giro di Lombardia. It’s “the race of the falling leaves” but despite it being the end of the season we still have a lot of great riders ready to fight for the last big win and important WorldTour points. Last year Oliver Zaugg took his first professional win ever when he soloed to victory in Lecco, but something tells me that we will see one of the favorites taking the win this time.

Muro di Sormano.
Click for larger view!

Favorites:

There is no way around it. The way he won the World Champions last Sunday, Philippe Gilbert is the big favorite for a wonderful double to end off the season. Gilbert has already won the race twice in the past (2009 and 2010) and the way he has been building up his shape towards the World Champions, I’m sure he wil be ready to take his third Lombardia win. It’s true that the added “Muro di Sormano” probably will make a selection a lot earlier than normally, but with a strong team around him and about 100 km to go from the top, Gilbert shouldn’t have any problems staying in front. 

BMC sports director Rik Verbrugghe told Sporza that 2012 had been an “off-year” for Gilbert and you know you’re talking about a real champion when two Vuelta stages and a World Champion title still is being looked at as an off-year. Gilbert will be eager to end this season with another win and the way I see only a few riders can do anything against that.

One of them is Damiano Cunego. Starting the Vuelta España six weeks ago Cunego’s aim was - like Gilbert -to ride the Vuelta in order to be in the best shape possible for the World Champions. Unfortunately for Cunego, halfway through the race the Italian federation implied their new “clean policy” leaving Cunego out of the roster for Limburg. Cunego kept on trying to hit the right breakaway though - being one of the most aggressive riders in the beginning of the stages - but without any luck. Now it’s time for revenge. Missing out on the World Champions on a route that suited him perfectly, Cunego really wants to show what he can do in Giro di Lombardia, a race he has won three times already. Last year he came to Lombardia just a few days after Tour of Beijing and without jetlag this time I will very surprised if he and in-form and team mate Diego Ulissi won’t have their saying in the final on Saturday afternoon.

Villa Vergano - 7,4% avg.
9,5 km to go from the top.

Another strong candidate for the win is Alberto Contador. I must admit I didn’t put Contador down as one of the favorites before his win in Milano-Torino, but now it would be stupid not to. Despite the scale showing 2,4 kg more than in the end of the Vuelta España, Alberto Contador still managed to drop everyone when he attack on the last kilometer and soloed to his first one-day-race victory ever. Last year Oliver Zaugg managed to go solo on the last climb (Villa Vergano) and keep his lead all the way to the line. Contador knows he doesn’t stand a chance in a sprint against riders like Gilbert, Cunego and Purito, but if he can put in another attack like the one in Milano-Torino on Villa Vergano he will be very difficult to catch.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is also a good pick for the win and together with team mates Dani Moreno and Alexander Kolobnev, Katusha have one of the strongest teams in the race. Last year Purito attacked too late on Villa Vergano and had to settle with third place. This year he finally won his first Classic in Fleche Wallone and being so close to the overall win in both the Giro and the Vuelta I’m sure he will do anything in this power to end this year with a win and a good taste in his mouth. Another thing to boost Purito’s morale is that a top place in Lombardia most likely will give him another overall World Tour win as Bradley Wiggins seems to be out of shape right now.

Jokers:

As always this late in the season it’s all about who has most left in the tank and that means we often see outsiders shine. I find many good jokers on the start list but as said, I think it will be one of the favorites taking the win. Still, I would like point out guys like Lars Petter Nordhaug and Carlos Betancur. Both riders are changing team next year (Nordhaug to Rabobank and Betancur to Ag2r) but that fact hasn’t benched them for this classic. Nordhaug showed at the World Champions that he’s in great shape when he was with Edvald Boasson Hagen on Cauberg in the final. Nordhaug was just about to bridge the gap to the chasing trio, a move that probably could have given EBH the rainbow jersey, but missed out in the end. With his win in GP Montréal earlier this month there is no doubt though that Lars Petter Nordhaug is in great shape right now and being a disappointed in Team Sky for not fighting to keep him on the team I could imagine he is eager to show them they made the wrong call when they let him go to Rabobank.

Carlos Betancur showed great he is ready for Lombardia when he took 5^th place in Milano-Torino, arriving with Purito after a strong finish, and despite having Danilo Di Luca on the team, I think Betancur is Acqua e Sapone’s best chance of a good result this Saturday. Betancur won the hard stage to Frabosa Soprana in Giro di Padania a couple of weeks ago and taking 9^th place in Lombardia last year, he sure knows what it takes to be there in the final. 

World Champions Preview - Road Race

Ever since this course was revealed, one rider has been everybody’s big time favorite; Philippe Gilbert. He was unbeatable last season and with the finishing line like just a few kilometers after Cauberg, I too couldn’t really see any other rider taking the rainbow jersey. That was last year though. This season Gilbert has struggled to perform and if it hadn’t been for his two stage wins in Vuelta España I think many would have only counted Gilbert as a dark horse for this Sunday. Now he’s suddenly the big favorite again and even though I must admit it’s hard not to take him as my winner pick, I honestly see a handful of riders able to challenge him.

The fact that the finish line is located 1,7 km after the top of Cauberg means that riders like Peter Sagan, Simon Gerrans and Alejandro Valverde will have a good chance of coming back if Gilbert should manage to drop them. And yes, I think it all will come down to Cauberg. The Belgian team and the Spanish team are simply too strong and with a course like this one they can’t afford not to work hard in order to keep it together in the end. Furthermore they will have Slovakia (6 riders) and probably Australia (9 riders) to help out as well. Simon Gerrans may not want to go up mano a mano with Gilbert and Sagan but he sure doesn’t want to attack 50 kilometers out either. He has been showing great shape lately and Australia need to make sure he gets delivered in a perfect position. This means we have at least four teams to control the peloton and even though opportunistic riders like Thomas Voeckler, Vincenzo Nibali and Alexander Kolobnev want to have a say too, I think this World Champion (like last year) will be won by one of the big favorites.

For quite some time I’ve been naming Alejandro Valverde as my personal favorite for the rainbow jersey and I won’t change that. Despite a hard Tour de France it seems like Valverde came out of the Vuelta as one of the strongest riders and even though Spain have 9 guys who can win this race, I think it will be a mistake not to aim to win with Valverde. Oscar Freire, Dani Moreno, Samuel Sanchez and Purito are all excellent riders for this type of course but in a sprint right after Cauberg none of them can match Valverde’s finish - not even Freire! Alejandro Valverde has a very rare killer instinct when he sees the finish line, like Danilo Di Luca, and if he’s in the front when the approaching Cauberg for the last time, I think  he will be more than difficult to beat. The way I see it, this will be a fight between Valverde, Gilbert and Sagan - probably in that order too as Sagan doesn’t seem as fast right now as earlier this year.

As always I have a couple of jokers too and this being the World Champions one of these is Matti Breschel. I’m not just been patriotic, I actually think Matti has a solid chance of another medal. He should have won in Australia two years ago and after two years full of bad luck it’s now time to take revenge. He showed in Vuelta a Burgos that his shape is good when he won Stage 3 and again in the Vuelta when he tried to anticipate Gilbert’s winning move in La Lastrilla. According to himself he’s not among the favorites and that’s true. He’s not a favorite, but he is one of the outsiders. Matti Breschel is an excellent championship rider who always performs on the big scenes and if he has one of his great days he should do top10 for sure and why not podium again…

Another joker is Moreno Moser. The young Italian has been outstanding in this first year as professional with many great wins and together with Vincenzo Nibali and Oscar Gatto, Moser is probably the best Italian pick for a medal. For the first time in many years the Italian team isn’t build around one rider and that means Azzurri will have to attack, attack and attack if they want to win. Nibali has never been afraid of attacking from afar and even though he often lack some tactical sense you’ve got to admire his way of riding. Like Nibali, Moreno Moser also knows how to take the peloton by surprise. Despite his young age I would say we already know his signature move - a late attack within the final kilometers. Moser has an outstanding engine and if he manages to get up over Cauberg among the first 10-20 riders, I will say it’s almost certain he will try with a solo move on the last 1,7 kilometers. Portuguese Rui Costa is also a rider to look out for this Sunday. Same goes for Michael Albasini and Tour of Britain winner Jonathan Tiernan-Locke.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Matti Breschel & Moreno Moser

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During the Vuelta España I had a daily winner pick duel with Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles. Surprisingly enough it all ended in a draw after 21 stages, so to settle the score I'll go head-2-head against Felix at the World Champions. You have my winner pick and two jokers already, here are his:

Winner pick: Philippe Gilbert

Joker: Simon Gerrans & Rui Costa

Explanation: The Belgian is coming into form after a terrible season. Two Vuelta stage wins has turned things round for Gilbert, who won the Amstel Gold Race in successive years over these roads. He knows what it's like to win on the Cauberg, plus he has the sprint to take it after the flat 1.7km run over the summit. Peter Sagan has been quiet recently, suggesting his best form came back during his hat-trick of wins during the Tour, while Alejandro Valverde will be exhausted from his final-week exertions during the Vuelta. The flat run-in won't help the Spaniard either. That said, if Sagan is in touch with the leaders over the top of the 10th and final ascent of the Cauberg, then he'll be near-impossible to beat. For my joker, I was tempted by Rui Costa, the in-form Portuguese, and also by Thomas Voeckler, who has the whole French squad behind him on what seems to be a tailor-made course. But I'll go for Simon Gerrans instead. The Australian has ordered his season with the Worlds in mind; he's in form after his win in Quebec and he's podiumed in the Amstel Gold before. If anyone can cause an upset, it's Gerrans.

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World Champions Preview - Time Trial

The two best time trialists of the season, Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins are not taking part in the World Champions this year that means we could see some surprising names on the final podium Wednesday afternoon. Still, last year’s World Champion Tony Martin is here and together with Vuelta España winner Alberto Contador he is one of the big favorites.

The course last year in Copenhagen was perfect for Tony Martin without any hills and with plenty of parts where he could get his big engine going. This year the course is completely different with nasty hills and many turns. According to home soil favorite Lieuwe Westra the longest straight out part of the total 45,7 km is about 4,5 km while the rest is a couple of hundred meters before turning left and another couple of hundred meters before turning right. It’s a course for riders with good bike handling skills and I think the many turns and the undulating route will make it hard for Tony Martin to repeat his win from last year. I’m not saying he is not going to win, I’m just saying it will be very tough to pull it off.

My personal winner pick for the gold medal is Alberto Contador. The Vuelta was hard - no doubts - but he should be able to recover well and do a great race already. Before Contador got his ban, the Olympic time trial was a big goal for him this season and looking at the two courses I would say this one suits Contador even better. He finished 2^nd after Fredrik Kessiakoff without taking big risk on the descent towards the finish line. Contador had best time at the check point and if it had been a time trial for the overall win in the Vuelta I’m sure he would have won too.

Earlier this year I picked Lieuwe Westra as joker for the World Champion time trial and after his insane time trial in Post Danmark Rundt (where he beat Geraint Thomas with 19 seconds over just 14,5 km) I would say he seems ready. Normally Westra is better in the short time trials but on home soil and with the hills in his favor I think he will be able to get a very good result. It won’t be easy getting on the podium, but I think he can do it on a good day.

Another outsider for the podium is Tejay van Garderen. In the team time trial TJ went so fast over Cauberg that Phinney couldn’t follow and that probably cost BMC the win. Both Phinney and TJ have high hopes for this time trial but I think TJ has the best chance of a medal - mainly because of the hills. It also depends on the weather. A strong tail wind will minimize the influence of the hills and that would mean Taylor Phinney finally could step up on the podium after his two 4^th places at the Olympics. Both Americans have a good chance, but I’ll go with Westra and TJ as my podium jokers.

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Lieuwe Westra & Tejay van Garderen

Extra focus on the team time trial

The World Champions Team Time Trial is already this Sunday and therefore I decided to repost the article I wrote about the event earlier this year. Here you go:

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Since the UCI revealed there would be a team time trial for sponsored teams on the menu for the World Champions in Limburg this year, every team with ambitions has been rearming their roster with strong time trialists.

Given the fact that the World Champions takes place in Holland, Dutch Vacansoleil-DCM is naturally one of the teams with an extra focus on the team time trial. With strong riders like Stijn Devolder and the two season-sensations Lieuwe Westra and Thomas De Gendt on the team, Vacansoleil-DCM were already set to clock in a decent time on home soil. Still, to increase their chances, they went out and signed Swedish time trial specialist Gustav Erik Larsson (who started out winning the opening time trial in Paris-Nice this year) and Danish Martin Mortensen who is always among the best time trialists of his country.

Swedish time trial specialist, Gustav Erik Larsson, is signed to
give Vacansoleil-DCM a better chance of succes in the TTT.

"Gustav [Erik Larsson] is a great cyclist who can give us joy all year long, but of course we had that [the World Champions TTT] in mind when we signed him. Martin [Mortensen] is also on our 10-riders list [for the TTT]. Valkenburg is definitely a goal for us and we already went to inspect the course last January. We also had our team presentation in the south of Limburg, near to the track”, Press Officer of Vacansoleil-DCM Ard Bierens tells me.

It’s not only Vacansoleil-DCM who have been reinforcing their roster. For this season BCM Racing signed super time trialists like Marco Pinotti (winner of the individual time trial in Giro d’Italia this year) and Tejay van Garderen together with Philippe Gilbert (Currently national time trial champion of Belgium) and Thor Hushovd, while Astana signed Janez Brajkovic and Andrei Kashechkin. Team Sky got Richie Porte and Konstantin Sioutsou and Movistar signed Vladimir Karpets, Jonathan Castroviejo, Giovanni Visconti (and Alejandro Valverde).

One of the strongest teams in the first half of 2012, OmegaPharma-Quickstep, already had a strong lineup for the team time trial with riders like Sylvain Chavanel, Niki Terpstra, Dario Cataldo and Tom Boonen. Those riders probably wouldn't have been able to win the World Champion Team Time Trial, but with the new signings of Tony Martin, Bert Grabsch, Levi Leipheimer, Peter Velits and young-gun Mikael Kwiatkowski they will be among the top favorites together with Team Sky.

One could argue that the lack of training together and oiling the machine before the World Champions would be a problem. Lately we have seen more and more team time trials in the stage races but without a long one in the Tour de France this year and only two very flat ones in the Giro (32 km) and Vuelta (16,5 km) there won't be many chances for the teams to practice in races. According to Vacansoleil-DCM’s Ard Bierens that won’t have much influence on the team’s preparations though.

“It’s not a problem. Eneco Tour also has a team time trial now and together with the others during the season it’s enough. At the end it all comes down to the day itself and the performance then. It isn't easy to ride many races with the expected WC-selections, so that [not training together much]won’t be a problem”, he says.

Vacansoleil-DCM aim to end in the top10 in the World Champions Team Time Trial on home soil this year.

The World Champion Team Time Trial course in Limburg - 53,2 km.

One of the only teams that breaks the pattern of signing strong riders for the team time trial is Team Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank. Bjarne Riis has always been very fond of the discipline and even though he gets Alberto Contador back in time, he still let go of both Richie Porte and Gustav Erik Larsson. On paper Riis shouldn’t be very optimistic but after a good performance in the Giro d’Italia (Saxo Bank taking 4^th place) the Danish team owner is now confident he can put together a strong team.

Team Saxo Bank taking 4th place in
the TTT in Giro d'Italia this year.

“That's the plan - to have a good team there, come out of the Vuelta in good shape and then do well. We have proved that even with a team that is absolutely not favorites, we can go fast in the team time trials. We have a lot of experience in that. You saw we were fourth in the Giro team time trial recently and that was a surprise for many.  I’m confident we're going to be strong”, Bjarne Riis tells Eurosport.

The World Champions Team Time Trial 2012 takes place on Sunday the 16^th of September with the first team starting at 14:30. The distance is 53,2 km and the course features three climbs; Lange Raarberg (1300 meters with 4,5%), Bergseweg (2700 meters with 3,3%) and the legendary Cauberg (1200 meters with 5,8%).

Vuelta España 2012 - Bravo Alberto!

Alberto Contador showed seven fingers when he crossed the finish line in Madrid with a big smile on his face and happy team mates at his side.

There are no doubts that in Contador's mind the last two voided Giro and Tour wins still count for him and I'm sure it won't take long before he shows two full hands crossing the finish line as winner of yet another Grand Tour.

Alberto Contador got the prize for most aggressive rider in the race and that seems like a fair choice looking at his eagerness to attack during this Vuelta.

From day one Alberto Contador had his mind on winning Vuelta España - and nothing but that - and three weeks later he pulled it off. There is nothing left to say but:

BRAVO ALBERTO!

Vuelta Preview - Stage 21

I can't be satisfied with the amounts of points I've got in my competition with Felix during this Vuelta, but at least my predictions on who's the strongest and what's going to happen seem to fit. Anyway, it's time for the last stage of Vuelta España 2012 and I can't see this end in any other way than a mass sprint on Plaza de Cibeles.

John Degenkolb has shown to be nearly unbeatable when he's up there in the finals and I'm sure Argos-Shimano want to demonstrate their strength by ending this race with a fifth stage win for the fast German. It's the classic finish in Madrid on Paseo del Prado with the finish line next to the Cibeles fountain. In total the riders do 10 laps in the center of Madrid, much like we know it from the Tour de France, and with all the jerseys settled already there isn't really anything left but the stage win to fight for. Well, maybe Alejandro Valverde will try to rip the green points jersey of Purito's shoulder, but I'm sure Purito won't let that happen like in 2010, when Mollema "stole" the jersey on the very last day in Madrid.

It should be a fight between the usual suspects Degenkolb, Swift, Bennati, Viviani, Davis etc. so again it's almost impossible to pick a joker. I have tried Manuel Cardoso, Matti Breschel & Lloyd Mondory - without luck - earlier in this Vuelta but I think I will give one of them another shot. Lloyd Mondory seems to be getting stronger and stronger during the race and he's not afraid of taking chances in the final. He's not as fast as Degenkolb and co. but if he times his sprint right, I think he can get close to a Top3 - which is the best I can hope for with a joker on this stage.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb
Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Assan Bazayev

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points