World Champions Preview - Time Trial

The two best time trialists of the season, Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins are not taking part in the World Champions this year that means we could see some surprising names on the final podium Wednesday afternoon. Still, last year’s World Champion Tony Martin is here and together with Vuelta España winner Alberto Contador he is one of the big favorites.

The course last year in Copenhagen was perfect for Tony Martin without any hills and with plenty of parts where he could get his big engine going. This year the course is completely different with nasty hills and many turns. According to home soil favorite Lieuwe Westra the longest straight out part of the total 45,7 km is about 4,5 km while the rest is a couple of hundred meters before turning left and another couple of hundred meters before turning right. It’s a course for riders with good bike handling skills and I think the many turns and the undulating route will make it hard for Tony Martin to repeat his win from last year. I’m not saying he is not going to win, I’m just saying it will be very tough to pull it off.

My personal winner pick for the gold medal is Alberto Contador. The Vuelta was hard - no doubts - but he should be able to recover well and do a great race already. Before Contador got his ban, the Olympic time trial was a big goal for him this season and looking at the two courses I would say this one suits Contador even better. He finished 2^nd after Fredrik Kessiakoff without taking big risk on the descent towards the finish line. Contador had best time at the check point and if it had been a time trial for the overall win in the Vuelta I’m sure he would have won too.

Earlier this year I picked Lieuwe Westra as joker for the World Champion time trial and after his insane time trial in Post Danmark Rundt (where he beat Geraint Thomas with 19 seconds over just 14,5 km) I would say he seems ready. Normally Westra is better in the short time trials but on home soil and with the hills in his favor I think he will be able to get a very good result. It won’t be easy getting on the podium, but I think he can do it on a good day.

Another outsider for the podium is Tejay van Garderen. In the team time trial TJ went so fast over Cauberg that Phinney couldn’t follow and that probably cost BMC the win. Both Phinney and TJ have high hopes for this time trial but I think TJ has the best chance of a medal - mainly because of the hills. It also depends on the weather. A strong tail wind will minimize the influence of the hills and that would mean Taylor Phinney finally could step up on the podium after his two 4^th places at the Olympics. Both Americans have a good chance, but I’ll go with Westra and TJ as my podium jokers.

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Lieuwe Westra & Tejay van Garderen

Extra focus on the team time trial

The World Champions Team Time Trial is already this Sunday and therefore I decided to repost the article I wrote about the event earlier this year. Here you go:

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Since the UCI revealed there would be a team time trial for sponsored teams on the menu for the World Champions in Limburg this year, every team with ambitions has been rearming their roster with strong time trialists.

Given the fact that the World Champions takes place in Holland, Dutch Vacansoleil-DCM is naturally one of the teams with an extra focus on the team time trial. With strong riders like Stijn Devolder and the two season-sensations Lieuwe Westra and Thomas De Gendt on the team, Vacansoleil-DCM were already set to clock in a decent time on home soil. Still, to increase their chances, they went out and signed Swedish time trial specialist Gustav Erik Larsson (who started out winning the opening time trial in Paris-Nice this year) and Danish Martin Mortensen who is always among the best time trialists of his country.

Swedish time trial specialist, Gustav Erik Larsson, is signed to
give Vacansoleil-DCM a better chance of succes in the TTT.

"Gustav [Erik Larsson] is a great cyclist who can give us joy all year long, but of course we had that [the World Champions TTT] in mind when we signed him. Martin [Mortensen] is also on our 10-riders list [for the TTT]. Valkenburg is definitely a goal for us and we already went to inspect the course last January. We also had our team presentation in the south of Limburg, near to the track”, Press Officer of Vacansoleil-DCM Ard Bierens tells me.

It’s not only Vacansoleil-DCM who have been reinforcing their roster. For this season BCM Racing signed super time trialists like Marco Pinotti (winner of the individual time trial in Giro d’Italia this year) and Tejay van Garderen together with Philippe Gilbert (Currently national time trial champion of Belgium) and Thor Hushovd, while Astana signed Janez Brajkovic and Andrei Kashechkin. Team Sky got Richie Porte and Konstantin Sioutsou and Movistar signed Vladimir Karpets, Jonathan Castroviejo, Giovanni Visconti (and Alejandro Valverde).

One of the strongest teams in the first half of 2012, OmegaPharma-Quickstep, already had a strong lineup for the team time trial with riders like Sylvain Chavanel, Niki Terpstra, Dario Cataldo and Tom Boonen. Those riders probably wouldn't have been able to win the World Champion Team Time Trial, but with the new signings of Tony Martin, Bert Grabsch, Levi Leipheimer, Peter Velits and young-gun Mikael Kwiatkowski they will be among the top favorites together with Team Sky.

One could argue that the lack of training together and oiling the machine before the World Champions would be a problem. Lately we have seen more and more team time trials in the stage races but without a long one in the Tour de France this year and only two very flat ones in the Giro (32 km) and Vuelta (16,5 km) there won't be many chances for the teams to practice in races. According to Vacansoleil-DCM’s Ard Bierens that won’t have much influence on the team’s preparations though.

“It’s not a problem. Eneco Tour also has a team time trial now and together with the others during the season it’s enough. At the end it all comes down to the day itself and the performance then. It isn't easy to ride many races with the expected WC-selections, so that [not training together much]won’t be a problem”, he says.

Vacansoleil-DCM aim to end in the top10 in the World Champions Team Time Trial on home soil this year.

The World Champion Team Time Trial course in Limburg - 53,2 km.

One of the only teams that breaks the pattern of signing strong riders for the team time trial is Team Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank. Bjarne Riis has always been very fond of the discipline and even though he gets Alberto Contador back in time, he still let go of both Richie Porte and Gustav Erik Larsson. On paper Riis shouldn’t be very optimistic but after a good performance in the Giro d’Italia (Saxo Bank taking 4^th place) the Danish team owner is now confident he can put together a strong team.

Team Saxo Bank taking 4th place in
the TTT in Giro d'Italia this year.

“That's the plan - to have a good team there, come out of the Vuelta in good shape and then do well. We have proved that even with a team that is absolutely not favorites, we can go fast in the team time trials. We have a lot of experience in that. You saw we were fourth in the Giro team time trial recently and that was a surprise for many.  I’m confident we're going to be strong”, Bjarne Riis tells Eurosport.

The World Champions Team Time Trial 2012 takes place on Sunday the 16^th of September with the first team starting at 14:30. The distance is 53,2 km and the course features three climbs; Lange Raarberg (1300 meters with 4,5%), Bergseweg (2700 meters with 3,3%) and the legendary Cauberg (1200 meters with 5,8%).

Vuelta España 2012 - Bravo Alberto!

Alberto Contador showed seven fingers when he crossed the finish line in Madrid with a big smile on his face and happy team mates at his side.

There are no doubts that in Contador's mind the last two voided Giro and Tour wins still count for him and I'm sure it won't take long before he shows two full hands crossing the finish line as winner of yet another Grand Tour.

Alberto Contador got the prize for most aggressive rider in the race and that seems like a fair choice looking at his eagerness to attack during this Vuelta.

From day one Alberto Contador had his mind on winning Vuelta España - and nothing but that - and three weeks later he pulled it off. There is nothing left to say but:

BRAVO ALBERTO!

Vuelta Preview - Stage 21

I can't be satisfied with the amounts of points I've got in my competition with Felix during this Vuelta, but at least my predictions on who's the strongest and what's going to happen seem to fit. Anyway, it's time for the last stage of Vuelta España 2012 and I can't see this end in any other way than a mass sprint on Plaza de Cibeles.

John Degenkolb has shown to be nearly unbeatable when he's up there in the finals and I'm sure Argos-Shimano want to demonstrate their strength by ending this race with a fifth stage win for the fast German. It's the classic finish in Madrid on Paseo del Prado with the finish line next to the Cibeles fountain. In total the riders do 10 laps in the center of Madrid, much like we know it from the Tour de France, and with all the jerseys settled already there isn't really anything left but the stage win to fight for. Well, maybe Alejandro Valverde will try to rip the green points jersey of Purito's shoulder, but I'm sure Purito won't let that happen like in 2010, when Mollema "stole" the jersey on the very last day in Madrid.

It should be a fight between the usual suspects Degenkolb, Swift, Bennati, Viviani, Davis etc. so again it's almost impossible to pick a joker. I have tried Manuel Cardoso, Matti Breschel & Lloyd Mondory - without luck - earlier in this Vuelta but I think I will give one of them another shot. Lloyd Mondory seems to be getting stronger and stronger during the race and he's not afraid of taking chances in the final. He's not as fast as Degenkolb and co. but if he times his sprint right, I think he can get close to a Top3 - which is the best I can hope for with a joker on this stage.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb
Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Assan Bazayev

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 20

Just a few days ago we all thought this would be the stage where the Vuelta would find its final winner. In a way it still is, but definitely not like we expected it to be. Only a total off day or bad luck can rip the red jersey of Alberto Contador's shoulder and I can't see it happen.

Contador will win this year's Vuelta España, like predicted, but the second place is still wide open! Before the stage there are only 46 seconds between Valverde and Purito and even though only the victory seemed to count for Purito I'm sure he will do everything he can to end second instead of third. No disrespect for Alejandro Valverde, but it's no shame to lose a Grand Tour to Alberto Contador. Second place after the Spanish legend is still something you can be proud of.

Therefore I expect Purito to give everything he has left in the tank in order to drop Valverde on Bola del Mundo. So far Purito has taken 55 seconds (without bonus seconds) on Valverde on the previous stages ending with a climb (without taking stage 4 into consideration) but it has never been more than maximum 19 seconds á stage (without bonus seconds) so he really needs to dig deep and probably even win the stage in order to overtake Valverde in the general classification. Not an easy task, but never the less a task I think Purito can manage. Mentally it won't be easy but there are no doubts  that the last climb suits Purito very well with parts of 23% within the last kilometer.

Bola del Mundo - Click for larger view!

A few days ago I thought Purito might let Contador take this stage on home soil near Madrid, but after the epic stage to Fuente Dé the tables have turned. It would be an amazing finish to this Vuelta for Alberto Contador if he wins on Bola del Mundo in the red jersey - and I’m sure he will try hard to do so - but I also  but I think it will be difficult to drop Purito if the Katusha captain can put his mind to take the 2nd place overall instead of winning. No matter what this is a stage you need to watch live!

As you can see I think this will be a fight between the best riders and therefore it's very difficult to pick a joker. I really think Igor Antón will try something on a climb that suits him perfectly but it won't be easy to get away as Rabobank will work hard in order to protect their 6th and 7th place overall. I agreed with Felix than any rider outside of the top3 can be seen as a joker for this stage the only problem is who to pick? I have a feeling Antón has what it takes to pull it off, but I also have a good eye to Sergio Henao. It seems like Team Sky are giving Uran and Henao green light to try own luck as the podium is out of reach for Chris Froome and if the favorite hesitate a bit Sergio Henao could profit with a strong attack.

With my luck the last couple of days (Tiralongo & Valverde on stage 17 and Degenkolb and Matti on stage 19) it will probably be the one I don’t pick who wins. Anyway I’ll take Antón and hope for the best!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Igor Antón

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Thomas de Gendt

Explanation: Belgian all-rounder Thomas de Gendt came into the race with high hopes but so far has just a couple of breaks and a second place to his name. The 25 year old loves these big stages - just look at his track record with the Stelvio and Ciutu Negru - and he also has the polka dot jersey in his sights. A good day could see de Gendt take the stage and become king of the mountains before riding into the sunset on his belated honeymoon. If so, then his new wife will be a lucky girl... But my favourite for the Bola del Mundo showdown is the man I always tipped to win the entire race: Alberto Contador. His form had been consistently high and he's in the ascendency after that win at Fuente De. He also deserves a second stage scalp in a race he has lit up with his constant attacks. That said, I can envisage a situation where the Big Three mark each other out all the way to the summit and Contador gives the win to Purito or Valverde in a magnanimous display of seigneurial largesse.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 19

On paper this looks like another sprint stage without any categorized climbs on the menu, but don’t let that fool you! We are in Spain and especially the last 65 kilometers are up and down all the way to the finish line where it kicks up with 4,5% the last 1700 meters.

With about 8 km to go there’s a another uphill part with an average gradient of 7% over 800 meters on a tiny road towards Zamarramala. After that it’s downhill again before the final 1700 meters I just described. The forecast says the riders should have a tail wind the last 30 km and that means it will be another fast finish despite the ‘climbs’.

The uphill part with 7% towards Zamarramala. 8km to go.

In my opinion this stage looks good stage for guys like Gianni Meersman - fast guys with a good punch in a slightly uphill finish - and therefore I think that especially Lotto will do everything they can in order to set up Meersman for the final sprint. 

So far Rabobank haven’t even been close to a stage win and if they miss the morning break (again) they should be willing to help out Lotto, Argos-Shimano, GreenEdge and whoever wants to give their fast guy a chance. I have a feeling Matti Breschel soon will strike. He's using this Vuelta as warm-up for the World Champions and tomorrow's stage would be a good rehearsal for Limburg! Look out for the fast Dane...

It’s not given it will end in a sprint and even though the morning break might get caught before the line, the uphill part with 8 km to go will be a good place to attack for guys like Gilbert, Nocentini etc. Why not even Purito who will be eager to take some time on Valverde and maybe put Contador a little under pressure.  On the other hand, Valverde could be a sneaky pick for the stage win which will give a bigger gap to Purito before the Saturday’s steep finish on Bola del Mundo.

My favorite though is once again John Degenkolb. The fast German missed out on stage 18 in the last tricky corner and I’m sure he will be eager to take revenge in La Lastrilla. Some might say that the finish is too hilly for him but don’t forget that he has won on steeper finishes than this one earlier in his career. If Argos-Shimano can manage to keep it together before the last 2 km, I think it will be very difficult to beat Degenkolb. Even for guys like Meersman and Gilbert.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Matti Breschel

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Remi Pauriol

Explanation: Lotto Belisol are down to just five riders but Friday's uphill sprint will be each man for himself and I have a feeling Gianni Meersman may finally turn things round for the winless Belgium outfit. I expect fierce competition from Philippe Gilbert, perhaps even Alejandro Valverde, and a whole cluster of riders also looking to deliver a first win for their teams - Dutchmen Pim Ligthart and Robert Gesink, for instance. I fancy Astana to have a pop through Seeldraeyers, Zeits or Bazayev. But I'll stick with Meersman for his sprinting abilities. For my joker I'm going to go for a Frenchman. We're two stages from Madrid and still yet to see a win from a French rider. Christophe Riblon or Romain Sicard are long shots, but I'm going to go even more outré with Remi Pauriol from a break. With the scores tied 9-9 it's time to be bold. Or 'fou' as they say in France...

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 18

To be honest I’m still not sure how I managed to lose 3 (or 5!) points in my duel with Felix on yesterday’s stage. Tiralongo looked like a sure thing and when he blew, Valverde seemed to be able to catch Contador, oh well… Now it’s time for what should be the last sprint stage before Madrid and I would be surprised if the sprinters let this one go.

Nobody imagined that stage 17 would be as hard as it turned out to be and with that in the legs I guess the riders would be happy to let a few guys get away early on the stage. It’s the longest stage of this Vuelta España and even though it’s flat all the way from Aguilar de Campoo to the finish line in Valladolid it will be another tough day in the saddle.

Last 2 km of finish in Valladolid.

That being said, it does seem like the biggest obstacle doesn’t occur until after 204 km of the stage’s total 204,5 km. Right after crossing the river in Valladolid the road turns left in a 90° bend into a smaller road which means that if you’re not among the five first riders in that turn, you can kiss your chances of winning goodbye.

I think Argos-Shimano will take control of the race as we have seen before but I also expect Team Sky to help out now when Chris Froome isn’t gunning for the podium anymore. Ben Swift seems to be coming around again and even though it will be tough to beat John Degenkolb, I think Team Sky at least will try to give him a chance to do so.

It’s not easy picking a joker since there haven’t really been any jokers in the top3 in the previous bunch sprints but people are getting tired now and this could mean that Manuel Cardoso has a chance. I have backed Cardoso as my joker earlier in the race, without luck, but normally Cardoso gets stronger during the race and it wouldn’t be the first time the Portuguese champion takes top3 in a sprint in the final week of a Vuelta. Caja Rural already got their stage win when Antonio Piedre won the in Lagos de Covadonga and I hope that the euphoria on the team can give Cardoso the last few percentages he needs in Valladolid!

Winner: John Degenkolb

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Jan Bakelants

Explanation: What a stage yesterday! Shame there were no TV images of Contador's decisive attack - the early pace was so fast, the host broadcaster hadn't even got the cameras rolling. Bert's magnificent win was history in the making and a tactical masterclass. Above all, it was totally unexpected. To be fair, I had predicted the win for David Moncoutie and he was at least in the break. But my joker Rob Ruijgh spattered egg on my face when he withdrew shortly after the start. Spoilsport. Shows what I know - I even predicted no action from the GC contenders. Anyway, moving on... Today should be more straight forward, with John Degenkolb taking his fifth Yaaah! For my joker, I'll go for Jan Bakelants. The last rider to win at Valladolid was the late Wouter Weylandt and fellow Belgian Bakelants was a team-mate of Weylandt at Leopard Trek. It would be a fitting tribute - plus RadioShack could do with a lift. 

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points