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Friday, September 7, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 20

Just a few days ago we all thought this would be the stage where the Vuelta would find its final winner. In a way it still is, but definitely not like we expected it to be. Only a total off day or bad luck can rip the red jersey of Alberto Contador's shoulder and I can't see it happen.

Contador will win this year's Vuelta España, like predicted, but the second place is still wide open! Before the stage there are only 46 seconds between Valverde and Purito and even though only the victory seemed to count for Purito I'm sure he will do everything he can to end second instead of third. No disrespect for Alejandro Valverde, but it's no shame to lose a Grand Tour to Alberto Contador. Second place after the Spanish legend is still something you can be proud of.

Therefore I expect Purito to give everything he has left in the tank in order to drop Valverde on Bola del Mundo. So far Purito has taken 55 seconds (without bonus seconds) on Valverde on the previous stages ending with a climb (without taking stage 4 into consideration) but it has never been more than maximum 19 seconds á stage (without bonus seconds) so he really needs to dig deep and probably even win the stage in order to overtake Valverde in the general classification. Not an easy task, but never the less a task I think Purito can manage. Mentally it won't be easy but there are no doubts that the last climb suits Purito very well with parts of 23% within the last kilometer.

Bola del Mundo - Click for larger view!

A few days ago I thought Purito might let Contador take this stage on home soil near Madrid, but after the epic stage to Fuente Dé the tables have turned. It would be an amazing finish to this Vuelta for Alberto Contador if he wins on Bola del Mundo in the red jersey - and I’m sure he will try hard to do so - but I also but I think it will be difficult to drop Purito if the Katusha captain can put his mind to take the 2nd place overall instead of winning. No matter what this is a stage you need to watch live!

As you can see I think this will be a fight between the best riders and therefore it's very difficult to pick a joker. I really think Igor Antón will try something on a climb that suits him perfectly but it won't be easy to get away as Rabobank will work hard in order to protect their 6th and 7th place overall. I agreed with Felix than any rider outside of the top3 can be seen as a joker for this stage the only problem is who to pick? I have a feeling Antón has what it takes to pull it off, but I also have a good eye to Sergio Henao. It seems like Team Sky are giving Uran and Henao green light to try own luck as the podium is out of reach for Chris Froome and if the favorite hesitate a bit Sergio Henao could profit with a strong attack.

With my luck the last couple of days (Tiralongo & Valverde on stage 17 and Degenkolb and Matti on stage 19) it will probably be the one I don’t pick who wins. Anyway I’ll take Antón and hope for the best!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Igor Antón

To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Thomas de Gendt

Explanation: Belgian all-rounder Thomas de Gendt came into the race with high hopes but so far has just a couple of breaks and a second place to his name. The 25 year old loves these big stages - just look at his track record with the Stelvio and Ciutu Negru - and he also has the polka dot jersey in his sights. A good day could see de Gendt take the stage and become king of the mountains before riding into the sunset on his belated honeymoon. If so, then his new wife will be a lucky girl... But my favourite for the Bola del Mundo showdown is the man I always tipped to win the entire race: Alberto Contador. His form had been consistently high and he's in the ascendency after that win at Fuente De. He also deserves a second stage scalp in a race he has lit up with his constant attacks. That said, I can envisage a situation where the Big Three mark each other out all the way to the summit and Contador gives the win to Purito or Valverde in a magnanimous display of seigneurial largesse.

Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 19

On paper this looks like another sprint stage without any categorized climbs on the menu, but don’t let that fool you! We are in Spain and especially the last 65 kilometers are up and down all the way to the finish line where it kicks up with 4,5% the last 1700 meters.

With about 8 km to go there’s a another uphill part with an average gradient of 7% over 800 meters on a tiny road towards Zamarramala. After that it’s downhill again before the final 1700 meters I just described. The forecast says the riders should have a tail wind the last 30 km and that means it will be another fast finish despite the ‘climbs’.

The uphill part with 7% towards Zamarramala. 8km to go.

In my opinion this stage looks good stage for guys like Gianni Meersman - fast guys with a good punch in a slightly uphill finish - and therefore I think that especially Lotto will do everything they can in order to set up Meersman for the final sprint.

So far Rabobank haven’t even been close to a stage win and if they miss the morning break (again) they should be willing to help out Lotto, Argos-Shimano, GreenEdge and whoever wants to give their fast guy a chance. I have a feeling Matti Breschel soon will strike. He's using this Vuelta as warm-up for the World Champions and tomorrow's stage would be a good rehearsal for Limburg! Look out for the fast Dane...

It’s not given it will end in a sprint and even though the morning break might get caught before the line, the uphill part with 8 km to go will be a good place to attack for guys like Gilbert, Nocentini etc. Why not even Purito who will be eager to take some time on Valverde and maybe put Contador a little under pressure. On the other hand, Valverde could be a sneaky pick for the stage win which will give a bigger gap to Purito before the Saturday’s steep finish on Bola del Mundo.

My favorite though is once again John Degenkolb. The fast German missed out on stage 18 in the last tricky corner and I’m sure he will be eager to take revenge in La Lastrilla. Some might say that the finish is too hilly for him but don’t forget that he has won on steeper finishes than this one earlier in his career. If Argos-Shimano can manage to keep it together before the last 2 km, I think it will be very difficult to beat Degenkolb. Even for guys like Meersman and Gilbert.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Matti Breschel

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Remi Pauriol

Explanation: Lotto Belisol are down to just five riders but Friday's uphill sprint will be each man for himself and I have a feeling Gianni Meersman may finally turn things round for the winless Belgium outfit. I expect fierce competition from Philippe Gilbert, perhaps even Alejandro Valverde, and a whole cluster of riders also looking to deliver a first win for their teams - Dutchmen Pim Ligthart and Robert Gesink, for instance. I fancy Astana to have a pop through Seeldraeyers, Zeits or Bazayev. But I'll stick with Meersman for his sprinting abilities. For my joker I'm going to go for a Frenchman. We're two stages from Madrid and still yet to see a win from a French rider. Christophe Riblon or Romain Sicard are long shots, but I'm going to go even more outré with Remi Pauriol from a break. With the scores tied 9-9 it's time to be bold. Or 'fou' as they say in France...

Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 18

To be honest I’m still not sure how I managed to lose 3 (or 5!) points in my duel with Felix on yesterday’s stage. Tiralongo looked like a sure thing and when he blew, Valverde seemed to be able to catch Contador, oh well… Now it’s time for what should be the last sprint stage before Madrid and I would be surprised if the sprinters let this one go.

Nobody imagined that stage 17 would be as hard as it turned out to be and with that in the legs I guess the riders would be happy to let a few guys get away early on the stage. It’s the longest stage of this Vuelta España and even though it’s flat all the way from Aguilar de Campoo to the finish line in Valladolid it will be another tough day in the saddle.

Last 2 km of finish in Valladolid.

That being said, it does seem like the biggest obstacle doesn’t occur until after 204 km of the stage’s total 204,5 km. Right after crossing the river in Valladolid the road turns left in a 90° bend into a smaller road which means that if you’re not among the five first riders in that turn, you can kiss your chances of winning goodbye.

I think Argos-Shimano will take control of the race as we have seen before but I also expect Team Sky to help out now when Chris Froome isn’t gunning for the podium anymore. Ben Swift seems to be coming around again and even though it will be tough to beat John Degenkolb, I think Team Sky at least will try to give him a chance to do so.

It’s not easy picking a joker since there haven’t really been any jokers in the top3 in the previous bunch sprints but people are getting tired now and this could mean that Manuel Cardoso has a chance. I have backed Cardoso as my joker earlier in the race, without luck, but normally Cardoso gets stronger during the race and it wouldn’t be the first time the Portuguese champion takes top3 in a sprint in the final week of a Vuelta. Caja Rural already got their stage win when Antonio Piedre won the in Lagos de Covadonga and I hope that the euphoria on the team can give Cardoso the last few percentages he needs in Valladolid!

Winner: John Degenkolb

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Jan Bakelants

Explanation: What a stage yesterday! Shame there were no TV images of Contador's decisive attack - the early pace was so fast, the host broadcaster hadn't even got the cameras rolling. Bert's magnificent win was history in the making and a tactical masterclass. Above all, it was totally unexpected. To be fair, I had predicted the win for David Moncoutie and he was at least in the break. But my joker Rob Ruijgh spattered egg on my face when he withdrew shortly after the start. Spoilsport. Shows what I know - I even predicted no action from the GC contenders. Anyway, moving on... Today should be more straight forward, with John Degenkolb taking his fifth Yaaah! For my joker, I'll go for Jan Bakelants. The last rider to win at Valladolid was the late Wouter Weylandt and fellow Belgian Bakelants was a team-mate of Weylandt at Leopard Trek. It would be a fitting tribute - plus RadioShack could do with a lift.

Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Interview - Vuelta Update with Laura Meseguer

Laura Meseguer, Eurosport. Vuelta 2012.

With less than a week left of this year’s Vuelta España it’s now time for an update from the center of the race. Laura Meseguer follows the Vuelta circus everyday in her job as interviewer for Spanish Eurosport and to get a view from behind the lines I made the following interview with Laura on the second rest day of the race.

Laura. We are now already at the second rest day of the Vuelta. How will you describe the first two weeks?
I think it’s been a good show for everyone! The favorites are strong and they all show a very competitive personality which are giving us one of the most equal races this year. That being said we have also seen John Degenkolb taking four impressive stage wins and by that giving his team some good headlines which are very important for a team like his that wants to be on the World Tour.

Which rider has impressed you the most so far?
It’s impossible just to mention one. I will say all the four favorites - inclusive Froome - because of their strength, aggressiveness, consistency and the show they have given the fans. And all the riders fighting for Top10 who have to cope with the demanding pace set by the favorites. Also the whole Argos-Shimano team for the incredible strength they have shown to obtain all their good results in this Vuelta. After Stage 13 [where Argos-Shimano tried to bring back the break alone but failed by very little, edt.] many riders in the peloton were impressed by their work and Degenkolb himself said he saw it as a victory.

In your new job as interviewer for Eurosport you have a finger on the pulse of the peloton. What do the riders think of the race so far?
They enjoy it and they all agree that the favorites are giving us a good show. Of course they say it’s a very hard race, but compared to other times where you hear more complaints from the riders, they really seem to be enjoying this one.

Laura Meseguer & Alberto Contador.

And being behind the red tape of the race, do you have any good stories to tell?
Well, I can’t really think of any right now, but some of the Argos-Shimano riders told me that Pablo Lastras had come to their team bus after stage 13 to congratulate them on their hard work. Degenkolb said he was thrilled that a cycling icon like Lastras had come to congratulate the team.

It’s now set to be a fight between Purito and Contador for the overall win. Talking with both riders almost every day, who do you see as the strongest before the last week?
I see a Purito more focus than ever and only the victory counts for him. All his victories this year, the leader’s jerseys he has been wearing and the fact he has improved his time trial skills and in the high mountains, it all gives him an immense security. Alberto is back again and he expects to win. He looks relaxed and he is giving everything he has. Still I sense some insecurity or weakness from him, even though he doesn’t let it show.

So, in your opinion, do we see a weaker Contador than earlier or just a stronger Purito than ever?
Both. It’s only normal that Alberto isn’t at the same level he was at in the Giro last year. It’s still Alberto though and everybody shows the same respect and fear as always. I think he is more or less as strong as before. Right now Purito is very, very strong and it’s clear to everybody that it will be difficult to take this Vuelta away from him.

Looking ahead, what do you think we can expect of the last week?
Uff…I don’t know, but I think we will see some drama on a stage where we didn’t expect it! It’s a feeling I have. I don’t think Bola del Mundo will make big differences in the classification though, but I’m sure the favorites will be very alert at all time the rest of the week.

Laura Meseguer & Miguel Indurain.

Bola del Mundo will be spectacular though. Do you think it will be as spectacular as Mirador de Ezaro or Cuitunigru?
Sure! And I think Alberto still have some attacks left in the tank. He won’t quit without trying again and again!

And the million Dollar question. Who will win this Vuelta?
Purito!

Okay. Last one. I’m sure the riders are enjoying this rest day after three hard days in the mountains, but what about you?
To be honest, the rest day is pure agony! I just thought about it earlier; working in TV means that we are covering more or less the same amount of kilometers as the riders are. We always have to stay alert, check our watches and make sure to send in our images on time. It’s stressful and I’ve been running around a lot! I will certainly end this Vuelta España in very good shape!

Vuelta Preview - Stage 17

This stage has "breakaway" written all over it. It's true that the last two stages before the rest day also ended up with a break making it to the line but since the last climb here isn't hard enough for the favorites to try something, I think Saxo Bank would be happy to see a break take the bonus seconds.

The peloton enters the Cantabria region and despite the GEOX team not existing anymore we should see local guys like David de la Fuente and Juanjo Cobo try their luck. Felix came close the other day, but yet so far, when he picked de la Fuente as his joker, but maybe this could be his day? Anyway, I will stick with my previous joker Paolo Tiralongo - last chance for the Italian climber as my joker, maybe...

The stage's final climb up to Fuente Dé.
Click for larger view! Source: climbbybike

On paper this stage really looks good for a guy like Tiralongo. One could argue that the last long climb to Fuente Dé doesn't really suit the Italian climber, but the two climbs before that most certainly do. Collado de Ozalba and Collado La Hoz are both around 6 km long with an average gradient of 6,6% and 7,6% and don't forget that Paolo Tiralongo nowadays has a very good sprint too. He showed that in the Giro earlier this year when he outsprinted Michele Scarponi and won on Rocca di Cambio - the training climb of yesterday's stage winner Dario Cataldo, but that's another story.

Another rider I have backed (too) many times in this Vuelta is Damiano Cunego. The "Little Prince" started the Vuelta as warm-up for the World Champions, but after the new Italian "clean" strategy, Cunego is no longer in the run for a spot on Azzurri's team. Looking at it, this stage seems tailor-made for Damiano Cunego, but without much to warm-up for now I'm not sure he will have the needed motivation anymore. Still - as I've said many times already - look out for Cunego!

The last turn before the finish line.

If this stage ends in a sprint anyway I think it will be fighting between Gianni Meersman and Alejandro Valverde. Meersman showed great shape earlier in the race and if he keeps that up he might have a chance as the last climb has an average gradient of only 3,9%. While it's not sure that Meersman will be there in the final, I think it's safe to say that Alejandro Valverde most certanitly will, so even though Gianni Meersman is an interesting outsider I'll go with Valverde as my favorite.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Paolo Tiralongo

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Rob Ruijgh

Explanation: This is a very hard stage to predict - but one thing is almost certain: a break will stay out and it won't contain any of the GC men. French veteran David Moncoutie has pretty much waved goodbye to securing a fifth consecutive king of the mountains title but he will still hope to take a stage win for a fifth successive year in what could, after all, be his last Vuelta. This is the last chance he realistically has - I can't see his battle-bruised old legs getting up the Bola del Mundo in pole position. It's a gamble putting Moncoutie as my winner though: should he win, I'd be far better off taking five points from him as joker. I could then cover my back with a security blanket Mikkel has no doubt opted for: that's to say, one of the Big Three taking the win. That said, I could even throw in Purito as a joker, considering the likelihood of a break staying out... But heck, I'm going to be honest and stick with my gut-feeling, so for my joker I'll choose Rob Ruijgh. Vacansoleil still need a win and de Gendt will probably hold back until the penultimate stage (he needs the mountain points for the polka dot jersey). I feel Damiano Cunego will want to try something after his snub for the worlds, while the likes of Gianni Meersman, Paolo Tiralongo and even Philippe Gilbert will be hungry. Javier Aramendia will no doubt be back in the mix after a quiet week. Simon Clarke, too, may have a pop. Decisions, decisions... with so many permutations, it's going to be fascinating. And I'll no doubt enter stage 18 three points down on Mikkel... or worse, five!

Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 16

Many said the three mountain stages in Asturia would make the difference but after two it’s still a close race between Alberto Contador and race leader Purito. Now it’s time for the hardest of the three-in-a-row when the peloton climbs up all the way to Cuitunigru.

Cuitunigru before the new asphalt.

Normally Puerto de Pajares would be the finishing climb, but to spice up this Vuelta even more Unipublic decided to add another three extremely steep kilometers to Cuitunigru. As you can see on the picture the road - or what should we call it? - wasn’t really ready for pro cycling so make sure there wouldn’t be any problems new asphalt was put on earlier this year. Better road conditions or not, this is an insanely hard finish and on paper it looks perfect for Purito with a part of 25% just before the line.

Still I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it again. Imagine if Team Saxo Bank had worked hard to pull back the break on stage 14. Then Purito would probably have won the stage and taken even more bonus seconds. It seems like the this race will be won with very few seconds and as it is now, Contador can’t afford to let Purito take seconds for free anymore.

Everybody knows a break has a good chance of making it and therefore everybody want to be in it as well. The first categorized climb, Alto de Cabruñana, starts after 41,2 km and this is probably where the final break will be established.

Last 2,8 super steep km of the stage
Click for larger view!

Damiano Cunego has been trying very hard to get in the break the last two days but without any luck and he knows he needs to dig deep at least once to realize his shape before the World Champions. I think Cunego will do everything he can do make it this time and even though my jokers from the previous days (Quintana, Jeannesson & Tiralongo) also have a very good chance I put my faith in the Italian Prince. Meaning that with my luck in the duel against Felix, Tiralongo probably wins the stage…

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Damiano Cunego

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Cayetano Sarmiento

Explanation:Well, well, well. I picked the wrong Caja Rural guy yesterday: even though David de la Fuente was in the break, it was his team-mate Antonio Piedra who took the win. To make things even worse, de la Fuente was pipped for third and so didn't even pick me up the one consolation bonus point that could make the difference in my duel with Mikkel come Madrid. How to drag myself up from that? Well, be bold and pick two riders Mikkel won't pick - that's how. First up, my favourite for the win is Alberto Contador, who will surely make it third time lucky after yet another attacking display. Bert is so close to distancing Rodriguez. He has to keep motivated and press on. J-Rod will certainly like the 22% ramps of the last climb of Cuitu Nigru, but he won't like the length: at 19km long and coming after two Cat.1 climbs, this will be arguably the hardest finale in this year's Vuelta. The queen stage should be won by whoever wants to be crowned king of the race. Does Contador have what it takes? As for my joker, I was at first hesitating between Damiano Cunego of Lampre and Gustavo Cesar of Andalucia. Lampre have been shamefully quiet these past two weeks and the Little Prince is surely keeping something special back for the big occasion? As for Cesar, the climber has also been rather lacklustre - and after Caja Rural's win, the pressure will be on Andalucia to deliver the goods. But in the end I went for Cayetano Sarmiento in a bold display of recklessness. Liquigas are also having a pretty shoddy race, and Sarmiento is one of the lesser-known of the swelling Colombian contingent in the pack. But he showed his climbing ability in the Dauphine and this could be his chance to sign on with the big time. If there's any justice in the world, Saddles will be rewarded for his troubles and deservedly distance Mikkel.

Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 15

There may not be as many climbs on the menu as on the last stage but I think we will see a very similar scenario. Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank did everything right and with 500 meters to go it looked like Alberto Contador would be able to pull it off. The way I see it they need to continue this strategy in order to tire out the rivals and then hope Contador will keep on getting stronger and stronger.

Even though I expect Saxo to keep working hard, the profile of the stage makes it a lot easier for a break to get good gap in the beginning and I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it all the way like in 2010 when Lagos de Covadonga last appeared in the Vuelta. What has changed from back then is the weather. In 2010 Carlos Barredo won on his training climb in pouring rain but this time it should stay dry and once again without much wind.

Detailed profile of Lagos de Covadonga
Click for larger view!

The climb up to Lagos de Covadonga is feared by many riders and the profile shows why. It’s said to have an average gradient of 7% but that is mostly because of the two short descents near the top. When the climb really starts, about 11 km from the line, the percentages don’t really drop below 8,5% for 8 km before the first descent of 500 meters. After that the climb kicks up with 11% before yet another short descent with 1 km to go. The last 500 meters are uphill with about 10% all the way to the line.

It’s another perfect stage for race leader Purito as he should be able to re-join Contador on the small descents, if Contador drops him, and then beat him in the final uphill sprint. Still I expect Contador to take stage win soon and it’s really a crap shoot between him and Purito again this time.

As I said, I think a break will make it. One thing is setting a high pace, but I’m sure Contador and the rest of the Saxo boys are getting tired of Purito stealing the bonus seconds every time. Therefore it might be more clever to let a break go to make sure Purito doesn’t get any bonus seconds and then try to drop him on the final climb.

Because the chances of a break making are pretty good almost every rider want to get in the break. It’s difficult to pick just one since riders like Nairo Quintana, Paolo Tiralongo, Christophe Le Mevel, Tiago Machado abd Damiano Cunego all sound good to me, but will try my luck with Arnold Jeannesson. The French climber came to the Vuelta with pains in his knee but has been getting better and better every day. On stage 12 he tried to attack early on the steep final climb but died trying because of a wrong gearing. After the stage Jeannesson said he still aims for a stage win in the mountains and if he manages to get in the right break I think he will be difficult to shake on the final climb.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Arnold Jeannesson

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: David de la Fuente

Explanation: Let's be honest - there's really no point picking a wildcard in these key mountain stages because the winner will surely only be one of the Big Four (or Dani Moreno). Twice I have picked Alberto Contador - and twice I thought the points were in the bag until the final few hundred metres. First, he was beaten to Jaca by Valverde and then yesterday he was pipped by a rampant red Rodriguez. Contador's morale must be pretty low, with his Spanish rivals now having five stage wins between them. But surely it's a matter of 'when' and not 'if' Contador takes a stage scalp. For all Rodriguez's dominance, he still only holds a 22-second lead over Contador in the GC. One attack that sticks and Bert will be in red - and although I have a major man crush on J-Rod at the moment (and hopes he takes the overall win) I am going to go against the grain and stick to Contador to take the win at the mythical Lagos de Covadonga. As a token joker, how about Caja Rural's David de la Fuente? He's kept quiet and may fancy getting into the break. I have a feeling about Andrey Kashechkin too.

Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.