Vuelta Preview - Stage 14

Welcome to the mountains. Forget about the "walls" we have seen so far, now it's time for some real climbing. With no less than five categorized climbs on the menu and only 149,2 km to cover it all this is surely one of the key stages in the Vuelta.

The final climb, Puerto de Ancares, had its Vuelta debut last year and that made for a brilliant show despite it being placed in the middle of the stage. The climb is 9,5 km long with an average gradient of 8,1% but with steep parts up to 12-15% within the last two kilometers. Some people calls it "the Spanish Mortirolo" and even though it's not as tough as Mortirolo you can understand the comparison. Before the riders get to Puerto de Ancares they need to tackle another category1 climb, Alto Folgueiras de Aigas. The average gradient is "only" set to 6,7% over 9,7 km but that's because of the last part where it evens out a bit a kilometer before the top. It's very steep in the beginning and then it stays 7+% all the way.

Puerto de Ancares - 9,5 km / 8,1% avg.

Looking at the profile I would say this is a great stage for Alberto Contador to drop guys like Chris Froome and Alejandro Valverde. The final climb is so hard that the selection will happen without many attacks and if Dani Navarro and Rafa Majka manage to stay with Contador again, I think the Saxo boys can make life very hard for the rivals. Alberto Contador knows he needs to drop Purito in order to win this Vuelta but he also knows it's only the classification in Madrid that counts. Contador won't panic if Purito stays in his wheel on the steep parts and I think the two of them will be able to profit a lot if they can work together again.

The bonus seconds seem to be very important again this year but on such a steep climb like Puerto de Ancares it's not only a matter of seconds but of minutes. Therefore I think a break will have a decent chance of making it again and if so I would like to point out Paolo Tiralongo. The Italian came here to go for the GC but crashed on the opening team time trial and hurt his hip. Day by day Tiralongo has been feeling better and on the stage to Barcelona he showed he is ready to attack again when he took 3rd place after Gilbert and Purito. 

I think Paolo Tiralongo is back to his real level now and if he manages to get into the break he has very good chance of taking another Grand Tour stage this year. Tiralongo could also profit from the favorites looking too much at each other on the final climb and then attack without being a threat in the overall classification. In any case I see him as a very good joker for the stage win. It's also a very good stage for riders like David Moncoutie who aims at the KOM jersey. Also Nairo Quintana could do well on a steep climb like this one, but since I can only pick one, I'll go with Paolo Tiralongo.

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Paolo Tiralongo

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Amets Txurruka

Explanation: At last, we're in to the proper mountains. The Asturias beckons with a short and sharp stage 14 that gets harder and harder with each climb. While Joaquim Rodriguez has proved himself to be quite the canny tactician in red over his trademark ramps during the opening two weeks of racing, things will now take an entirely different complexion. I expect Alberto Contador to finally throw down the gauntlet and get that elusive win. With it, Bertie should take the red jersey as well. As for my joker, Euskaltel are due a win and Txurruka could be the man to deliver. Igor Anton is still too much of a threat on GC to be allowed to get into a break - but Txurruka should be given free reign to attack. I expect David Moncoutie to be in the break too - but I don't feel the French veteran will have the strength to prevail on the fierce Puerto de Ancares.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 13

Purito made up for what happened on Arrate and leveled out the score in my ittle duel with Felix. Great. Now it’s time for another sprint finish and trust me, I won’t make the mistake of picking Ben Swift again.

John Degenkolb has shown to be unbeatable in this Vuelta so far and without many chances left - and with the desire of taking back the points jersey - this is a stage he can’t afford let go of. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu but as always in Spain that doesn’t mean there are no uphill sections. About 15 km from the line it kicks up with 5% for 2-3 kilometers but it shouldn’t really change the fact that this stage will end up in a mass sprint.

Only thing talking against it is Degenkolb’s superiority so far in the race. Like with Purito, no one really wanted to help out Katusha on stage 12 and that could very well happen for Argos-Shimano as well. The way I see it there are only two other sprint stages left in this race but even though the sprinters won’t get many chances from here on it will require a lot of confidence from guys like Viviani, Bouhanni and Bennati if their teams should start helping out Argos-Shimano.

Therefore you must not rule out the chance of a breakaway making it this time. There are some uphill sections in the beginning of the stage and I think it will be another fast start with everybody trying to put a guy in the break. Euskaltel showed on stage 12 that they are back ready to attack and it would make sense for them to send out a guy like Ruben Perez. He is good at picking the right breakaways and he is also very fast on the line. So far he has been sprinting to places from 10-25 in the previous bunch sprints but if he manages to get in the break he could go all the way in Ferrol.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Ruben Perez

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John 'Jaaaa!' Degenkolb

Joker: Assan Bazayev

Explanation: The stage starts in town of Santiago di Compostela, the destination of the major Catholic pilgrimage route of the St James' Way. As such we can expect a likely attack from Javiers Chacon and Aramendia - although it hardly takes religious fervour to force those two out in front of the peloton. It's a tricky, undulating route, but given the lack of opportunities for the sprinters following this stage, I expect it to come down to a bunch finish. If that's the case then you can't really look beyond Degenkolb - it's almost as stupid as picking someone else to win on a punchy ramp other than Joaquim Rodriguez (as Saddles did yesterday - simply to allow Mikkel the chance to draw level and spice things up). While I don't expect a break to stay out, the final kilometres are challenging and there is also a difficult uncategorised climb near the finish. If someone attacks early, they could hold the pack at bay. That someone could be Astana pocket rocket Assan Bazayev.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 12

Purito managed to keep the red leader’s jersey with just 1 second after the time trial and now it’s time to make the gap bigger. This is another stage tailor made for Purito and unless a breakaway makes it, it will be a massive surprise if Purito doesn’t take yet another stage win in this Vuelta.

The stage follows the coast line up north from Vilagarcía de Arousa to Dumbría and on paper it looks totally flat - that is, until the last 1900 meters up to Mirador de Ézaro. The average gradient shows 13,5% and with parts up to 25% it sure is perfect for Purito. There are 12 bonus seconds on the line and with three hard mountain stages, starting after Friday, in a row it would be good for Purito to have a bigger gap to Alberto Contador who - as expected - seems to get stronger and stronger every day.

Let the suffering begin! Mirador de Ézaro -1,9km 13,5% avg. 

The fact that everybody knows Purito is the big favorite also means that only few teams - if any - will help Katusha catch the break. Therefore it’s very important for the Russian team that only a tiny break gets off in the beginning. With such a hard week ahead, there is now way they will used up their whole team chasing back a strong break just for Purito to gain a few seconds. Still I’m pretty sure this will end up with the favorites fighting for the win and as you can see I have no doubts Purito will win such a fight.

In case of a break makes it I would like to pick Jan Bakelants as my joker - again. As mentioned before Bakelants has been very showing some great shape in the recent weeks and he is not afraid of attacking either. Furthermore he is fast and even though an extremely steep finish as this one doesn’t suit him perfectly he is still very explosive in an uphill finish.

Winner pick: Purito
Joker: Jan Bakelants

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Philippe Gilbert

Joker: Tiago Machado

Explanation: Looking at the finish, I'm tempted to go for either Rodriguez or Moreno - that ramp seems tailor-made - but the Katusha pair may hold back until the weekend's mountain stages. Gilbert showed that he's riding back into form in Barcelona and that may have been the mental boost he needed. After all, the Belgian won these kinds of stages for fun last year. The likes of Tiralongo, Roche and Rabobank's top ten trio could be dangerous too. As for my wildcard, I first went or local rider Gustavo Cesar, who owes a win to all those people who painted his name in the road for the time trial. But instead, how about Tiago Machado? RadioShack need a win and we're not too far away from the Portuguese border. Plus Machado is no longer any threat on GC. 

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 6 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 11

Some says the Vuelta España first starts for real on Friday, but if it hadn’t already I would say it starts on stage 11. It’s the only individual time trial in the race and I’m sure we will see some important changes in the classification when the day is over.

Knowing the current World Champion, Tony Martin, is in the race it would be natural to pick him as the favorite, but looking at the profile I’m not so sure it will be easy for the German time machine. Of the course’s 39,4 km no less than 10 is uphill followed by a tricky descent the last 16 km. That means that Tony Martin really just have the first 13,4 km to make the difference and I doubt that will be enough with the category 3 climb, Alto Monte Castrove, following right after. Its average gradient is “only” 4,4% but the beginning is very tough with percentages around 7-8 the first three km. Tony Martin tried the course on the rest day and according to Martin himself he was very disappointed of what he saw.

Therefore I think it will be a fight between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. Froome has been outstanding in his recent time trials taking 2nd in the Tour (in front of Fabian Cancellara and only beaten by Bradley Wiggins) and 3rd at the Olympics after Wiggins and Martin. If Froome still has something left in the tank this could be his big chance of taking some time back on Contador, Valverde and especially Purito before the mountains and according to himself the course suits him despite its tricky parts.

Alto Monte Castrove - Category 3 - 10 km / 4,4%

Logic says I should pick Froome as my favorite but I think I’ll go with Alberto Contador instead. While the other riders have only tried out the time trial once or maybe twice, Contador had been riding the course 8 (!!) times before the Vuelta even started. All he has been thinking about during the ban was winning the Vuelta and remember that Contador was actually talking about taking an Olympic medal on the time trial last year before he got banned.

When Bjarne Riis signed him he said he believed he could make Contador improve his time trial skills a lot - a lot he said - and don’t forget Contador has already won time trials in the Tour de France beating Fabian Cancellara. No one is as motivated as Alberto Contador for this time trial and if it stays dry on the tricky descent I think Contador’s first win in this Vuelta will be in Pontevedra.

To be honest I can’t see any other riders than the three already mentioned wining this time trial. A guy like Andrew Talansky showed in Tour de Romandie that he can compete with the elite, when he was only beaten by Wiggins by a few milliseconds and as I have him predicted to end in the Top10 overall I also think he will do well in this time trial. Another guy I know for a fact will give a real try is Thomas De Gendt. The Giro sensation was very disappointed with his performance in the Belgian national championship against the clock and is eager to take revenge in Spain. He has already been out in breaks trying to find his legs and if everything goes perfectly he might be able to get in top3. I doubt it, but hey for a joker he could be a good pick!

Winner pick: Alberto Contador
Joker: Thomas De Gendt

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Andrew Talansky

Explanation: This one is hard to call. I expect it to be a three-way tussle between Alberto Contador, Chris Froome and Tony Martin - probably finishing in that order. With a climb in the middle, this is quite similar to the Tour's first time trial, in which Froome finished second. After so many exertions this summer, Froome must be knackered - and he hasn't looked half as strong as he was on the Tour. Martin would be favourite were this a flat course, but the bump puts him at a disadvantage. The worlds are more likely for the German, who by then should be back to his best. Contador is a bit of a punt but time trialling is one thing you can practice on your own - and he's had six months going solo. The Spaniard to win - by less than seven seconds, putting Froome in red. My wildcard? Andrew Talansky has been quiet so far but there must have been a reason by Jonathan Vaughters made him Garmin's leader. A former youth TT champion, the American would kick-start his Vuelta with an unexpected win.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 6 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 10

I guess it won’t come as a chock for you but I had Ben Swift put down for this stage on my pre-Vuelta stage winner paper. A lot have changed in the first 9 days though and I must admit that my statement about Swifty being the fastest guy in the race hasn’t really been as accurate as expected. That being said, don’t be surprised if he ends up winning in Sanxenxo!

It’s a classic transition stage getting to the mountains and even though it’s alongside the sea with a good chance of cross wind I think it’s safe to say it will end up in a bunch sprint. The last kilometer kicks a little bit uphill but not more than a few percentages and it seems perfect for John Degenkolb to take his 4^th stage win in this Vuelta España. Argos-Shimano have been outstanding in their way of setting up Degenkolb in the finals - even when Team Sky seemed to have gotten the better of them on the Motorbike circuit - and it will take something very special to beat Degenkolb this time.

Picking a joker for a stage like this is nearly impossible. A joker should be a guy no one expects winning (Swift?...) but in a sprint like this it will be the same 4-5 names we have already seen in action. I have to pick one so I’ll try Lloyd Mondory. The French sprinter is always up there around top10 and I have a feeling it won’t take long before he gets into Top3. He surprised me on Sunday’s stage in Barcelona where he managed to hang on to the front over Montjuic and took 15^th place and according to Mondory himself he feels better and better every day. I doubt he can beat Degekolb but if the cross wind splits up the peloton and Mondory manages to stay in front I think he could have a decent chance of top3 – which in this case you give me some much needed points in my duel with Felix!

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Thomas Dekker

Explanation: The stage is likely to end in a bunch sprint and there's no evidence to suggest that anyone is good enough to beat Degenkolb and his Argos Shimano train in that kind of finish. Ben Swift's performances have been so off-key that I was almost tempted to throw him in as my joker - although Mikkel probably wouldn't have allowed that one (he clearly has a soft spot for Swift, having stuck with him on three - three! - occasions so far). Given the early Cat.3 climb, the likely crosswinds coming off the Galician coast and the prospect of Wednesday's time trial, a break could well stay out. Thomas Dekker, riding his first major tour since coming back from suspension, has been quiet so far. This could be the chance to remind the world of his talent.

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta - Rest Day

No preview today as the riders take a well deserved rest day after 9 days in the extreme temperatures. 

Preview of tomorrow's stage 10 will be online later today. Untill then, here are the previous Vuelta pieces:

Preview - Stage 9
Preview - Stage 8
Preview - Stage 7
Preview - Stage 6
Preview - Stage 5
Preview - Stage 4
Preview - Stage 3
Preview - Stage 2
Exclusive Interview: Denis Menchov
Preview - Stage 1
Preview & Favorites
Exclusive Interview: Thomas De Gendt
Exclusive: Froome ready to take on Contador

Vuelta Preview - Stage 9

It’s the last stage before the first rest day and many riders are tired after more than a week in 35°c. It’s the second longest stage in this Vuelta España and I think it would suit the peloton perfectly if a break could get away. That being said there are quite a lot of riders who will have marked this stage in the race book for a potential sprint in Barcelona.

The stage is 196,3 km but actually it’s only the final 5 km you should be concerned about. Entering Barcelona the peloton faces Alto de Montjuic up to the Olympic stadium. It’s only 1,1 km long but an average gradient of 8,1% should bring the attacking feeling out in the many riders. From the top of Montjuic there are only 3,4 km to go and if a strong rider gets a gap he will be difficult to catch on the tricky descent before the last 700 meters uphill.

The final 5 km of stage 9 - click for larger view!

I know for a fact that Danish Matti Breschel has this stage red-circled and I’m sure he will try go for it if it comes to a sprint. Still I have to say my favorite for the win will be have to be Gianni Meersman (look ma', - not Swift!). 

The Belgian sprinter has shown super shape in the first week and he even managed to stay with the best a long way up the nasty finish in Jaca where he ended 19^th on the stage. Lotto-Belisol haven’t really much to do in this race without Jurgen Van den Broeck going for the GC and if they are to get any kind of success Gianni Meersman will definitely be their best card to play.

For a joker I put my faith in Pim Ligthart. Vacansoleil-DCM have - as always - been very active in the breaks so far in this Vuelta but so far without getting much out of it. Thomas de Gendt came close the other day and same de Gendt told me before the Vuelta to keep an eye on Ligthart. So far the former Dutch champion hasn’t shown much but I think that if he can stay near the front on Montjuic he could be a good joker for the stage.

I can only pick one joker, but I would like to point out that this finish also suits Simon Clarke perfectly! I don’t know if GreenEdge want to give Davis another chance but in my opinion they should let Clarke have a crack at it. Purito has also said he would like to something in his home town and together with Dani Moreno, Katusha could really spice up this stage if they attack on Montjuic!

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Pim Ligthart

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: José Joaquin Rojas

Joker: Biel Kadri

Explanation: The easy money is on John Degenkolb making it four but that tricky Montjuic climb towards the end could well prove too hard for Argos Shimano to control. Jose Rojas has been quiet so far but he should get over the rise and then have enough juice to take the sprint in Barcelona. As for a wildcard, Biel Kadri is a nice all rounder who could pull off a win from a break. It's a bit of a stab in the dark, but that's the point of choosing a joker!

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.