Vuelta Preview - Stage 11

Some says the Vuelta España first starts for real on Friday, but if it hadn’t already I would say it starts on stage 11. It’s the only individual time trial in the race and I’m sure we will see some important changes in the classification when the day is over.

Knowing the current World Champion, Tony Martin, is in the race it would be natural to pick him as the favorite, but looking at the profile I’m not so sure it will be easy for the German time machine. Of the course’s 39,4 km no less than 10 is uphill followed by a tricky descent the last 16 km. That means that Tony Martin really just have the first 13,4 km to make the difference and I doubt that will be enough with the category 3 climb, Alto Monte Castrove, following right after. Its average gradient is “only” 4,4% but the beginning is very tough with percentages around 7-8 the first three km. Tony Martin tried the course on the rest day and according to Martin himself he was very disappointed of what he saw.

Therefore I think it will be a fight between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. Froome has been outstanding in his recent time trials taking 2nd in the Tour (in front of Fabian Cancellara and only beaten by Bradley Wiggins) and 3rd at the Olympics after Wiggins and Martin. If Froome still has something left in the tank this could be his big chance of taking some time back on Contador, Valverde and especially Purito before the mountains and according to himself the course suits him despite its tricky parts.

Alto Monte Castrove - Category 3 - 10 km / 4,4%

Logic says I should pick Froome as my favorite but I think I’ll go with Alberto Contador instead. While the other riders have only tried out the time trial once or maybe twice, Contador had been riding the course 8 (!!) times before the Vuelta even started. All he has been thinking about during the ban was winning the Vuelta and remember that Contador was actually talking about taking an Olympic medal on the time trial last year before he got banned.

When Bjarne Riis signed him he said he believed he could make Contador improve his time trial skills a lot - a lot he said - and don’t forget Contador has already won time trials in the Tour de France beating Fabian Cancellara. No one is as motivated as Alberto Contador for this time trial and if it stays dry on the tricky descent I think Contador’s first win in this Vuelta will be in Pontevedra.

To be honest I can’t see any other riders than the three already mentioned wining this time trial. A guy like Andrew Talansky showed in Tour de Romandie that he can compete with the elite, when he was only beaten by Wiggins by a few milliseconds and as I have him predicted to end in the Top10 overall I also think he will do well in this time trial. Another guy I know for a fact will give a real try is Thomas De Gendt. The Giro sensation was very disappointed with his performance in the Belgian national championship against the clock and is eager to take revenge in Spain. He has already been out in breaks trying to find his legs and if everything goes perfectly he might be able to get in top3. I doubt it, but hey for a joker he could be a good pick!

Winner pick: Alberto Contador
Joker: Thomas De Gendt

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Andrew Talansky

Explanation: This one is hard to call. I expect it to be a three-way tussle between Alberto Contador, Chris Froome and Tony Martin - probably finishing in that order. With a climb in the middle, this is quite similar to the Tour's first time trial, in which Froome finished second. After so many exertions this summer, Froome must be knackered - and he hasn't looked half as strong as he was on the Tour. Martin would be favourite were this a flat course, but the bump puts him at a disadvantage. The worlds are more likely for the German, who by then should be back to his best. Contador is a bit of a punt but time trialling is one thing you can practice on your own - and he's had six months going solo. The Spaniard to win - by less than seven seconds, putting Froome in red. My wildcard? Andrew Talansky has been quiet so far but there must have been a reason by Jonathan Vaughters made him Garmin's leader. A former youth TT champion, the American would kick-start his Vuelta with an unexpected win.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 6 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 10

I guess it won’t come as a chock for you but I had Ben Swift put down for this stage on my pre-Vuelta stage winner paper. A lot have changed in the first 9 days though and I must admit that my statement about Swifty being the fastest guy in the race hasn’t really been as accurate as expected. That being said, don’t be surprised if he ends up winning in Sanxenxo!

It’s a classic transition stage getting to the mountains and even though it’s alongside the sea with a good chance of cross wind I think it’s safe to say it will end up in a bunch sprint. The last kilometer kicks a little bit uphill but not more than a few percentages and it seems perfect for John Degenkolb to take his 4^th stage win in this Vuelta España. Argos-Shimano have been outstanding in their way of setting up Degenkolb in the finals - even when Team Sky seemed to have gotten the better of them on the Motorbike circuit - and it will take something very special to beat Degenkolb this time.

Picking a joker for a stage like this is nearly impossible. A joker should be a guy no one expects winning (Swift?...) but in a sprint like this it will be the same 4-5 names we have already seen in action. I have to pick one so I’ll try Lloyd Mondory. The French sprinter is always up there around top10 and I have a feeling it won’t take long before he gets into Top3. He surprised me on Sunday’s stage in Barcelona where he managed to hang on to the front over Montjuic and took 15^th place and according to Mondory himself he feels better and better every day. I doubt he can beat Degekolb but if the cross wind splits up the peloton and Mondory manages to stay in front I think he could have a decent chance of top3 – which in this case you give me some much needed points in my duel with Felix!

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Thomas Dekker

Explanation: The stage is likely to end in a bunch sprint and there's no evidence to suggest that anyone is good enough to beat Degenkolb and his Argos Shimano train in that kind of finish. Ben Swift's performances have been so off-key that I was almost tempted to throw him in as my joker - although Mikkel probably wouldn't have allowed that one (he clearly has a soft spot for Swift, having stuck with him on three - three! - occasions so far). Given the early Cat.3 climb, the likely crosswinds coming off the Galician coast and the prospect of Wednesday's time trial, a break could well stay out. Thomas Dekker, riding his first major tour since coming back from suspension, has been quiet so far. This could be the chance to remind the world of his talent.

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta - Rest Day

No preview today as the riders take a well deserved rest day after 9 days in the extreme temperatures. 

Preview of tomorrow's stage 10 will be online later today. Untill then, here are the previous Vuelta pieces:

Preview - Stage 9
Preview - Stage 8
Preview - Stage 7
Preview - Stage 6
Preview - Stage 5
Preview - Stage 4
Preview - Stage 3
Preview - Stage 2
Exclusive Interview: Denis Menchov
Preview - Stage 1
Preview & Favorites
Exclusive Interview: Thomas De Gendt
Exclusive: Froome ready to take on Contador

Vuelta Preview - Stage 9

It’s the last stage before the first rest day and many riders are tired after more than a week in 35°c. It’s the second longest stage in this Vuelta España and I think it would suit the peloton perfectly if a break could get away. That being said there are quite a lot of riders who will have marked this stage in the race book for a potential sprint in Barcelona.

The stage is 196,3 km but actually it’s only the final 5 km you should be concerned about. Entering Barcelona the peloton faces Alto de Montjuic up to the Olympic stadium. It’s only 1,1 km long but an average gradient of 8,1% should bring the attacking feeling out in the many riders. From the top of Montjuic there are only 3,4 km to go and if a strong rider gets a gap he will be difficult to catch on the tricky descent before the last 700 meters uphill.

The final 5 km of stage 9 - click for larger view!

I know for a fact that Danish Matti Breschel has this stage red-circled and I’m sure he will try go for it if it comes to a sprint. Still I have to say my favorite for the win will be have to be Gianni Meersman (look ma', - not Swift!). 

The Belgian sprinter has shown super shape in the first week and he even managed to stay with the best a long way up the nasty finish in Jaca where he ended 19^th on the stage. Lotto-Belisol haven’t really much to do in this race without Jurgen Van den Broeck going for the GC and if they are to get any kind of success Gianni Meersman will definitely be their best card to play.

For a joker I put my faith in Pim Ligthart. Vacansoleil-DCM have - as always - been very active in the breaks so far in this Vuelta but so far without getting much out of it. Thomas de Gendt came close the other day and same de Gendt told me before the Vuelta to keep an eye on Ligthart. So far the former Dutch champion hasn’t shown much but I think that if he can stay near the front on Montjuic he could be a good joker for the stage.

I can only pick one joker, but I would like to point out that this finish also suits Simon Clarke perfectly! I don’t know if GreenEdge want to give Davis another chance but in my opinion they should let Clarke have a crack at it. Purito has also said he would like to something in his home town and together with Dani Moreno, Katusha could really spice up this stage if they attack on Montjuic!

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Pim Ligthart

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: José Joaquin Rojas

Joker: Biel Kadri

Explanation: The easy money is on John Degenkolb making it four but that tricky Montjuic climb towards the end could well prove too hard for Argos Shimano to control. Jose Rojas has been quiet so far but he should get over the rise and then have enough juice to take the sprint in Barcelona. As for a wildcard, Biel Kadri is a nice all rounder who could pull off a win from a break. It's a bit of a stab in the dark, but that's the point of choosing a joker!

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 8

Okay. Let’s get it over with. Third time was not the charm for Swifty - it was third strike instead. I think I’ll jump on the Degenkolb wagon from now on and with that out of the way, let’s have a look at stage 8 to Andorra.

While the finish to Estación de Valdezcaray on stage 4 wasn’t really steep I can assure you that it will be to Andorra. The category1 climb Collada de la Gallina is 7,2 km with an average gradient of 8%. it’s a nasty climb with more than just few parts of 15% and compared to stage 4 you can’t hide in a big group this time. Not if you want to be in the front!

The peloton enters Andorra after 134,9 km (40 km to go from there) and that means there won’t be an easy part of road from there on and to the finish line. With 20 km to go Alto de la Comella starts. It’s a category2 climb and despite its average gradient of “just” 5,2% the last kilometer doesn’t drop below 11%. The descent from Alto de la Comella is very tricky and technical and once again you need to be in the front already in order to start Collada de la Gallina in a winning position.

Collada de la Gallina. 7,2 km - 8% avg.

My favorite for the stage is Purito. I thought he might would have let go of the Red jersey on stage 7, but there is no way he is giving away just before entering his home town the following. Purito lives very near this climb and knows it better than the most and I haven’t seen anything so far that would make me doubt his strength. I think (and hope!) that Alberto Contador will go hard and keep on attacking in order to get away, but it will be very difficult for him to drop Purito. 

On Arrate Contador showed that he can drop Froome with his accelerations and this time I think Purito will help him out if they get away together. Rumor has it that Contador and Purito have never really been the best of friends but on Collada de la Gallina they could take a huge step towards the overall podium if they manage to work together.

As I said I doubt Purito will let the jersey go, so you better be way out of the overall classification before you even think about going into a breakaway. That being said I think it’s time to see guys like David Moncoutie, David de la Fuente, Amets Txurruka and Damiano Cunego make an appearance in this race. Moncoutie crashed hard in the Tour and said just before the Vuelta that he still had problems standing up attacking the climbs. He might need a few days before he’s a good pick. Still if he is ready now, he is a solid candidate for a breakaway win. 

My personal joker for the stage is Damiano Cunego. The “Little Italian Prince” didn’t come to this Vuelta to chase a good overall place but instead to get in shape for the World Champions on a course that has never been better for him. Cunego has lost time every time the road went uphill in this Vuelta and again today he lost time in the hectic finish with the crash and the cross wind. Afterwards Cunego said that he just took it easy since he is only in the race to go for a stage win. I think he will fancy a chance tomorrow but I’m sure Felix wouldn’t agree to downgrade Cunego to a “joker”, so instead my joker pick will be Jan Bakelants.

Bakelants has shown great condition the last month and being almost seven minutes down in the overall classification Katusha shouldn’t worry too much about him taking the jersey. Bakelants has been in the mix in the other uphill finishes so far and he has shown, just before the Vuelta, that he is not afraid of attacking. If he can hit the right break he could be very dangerous on Collada de la Gallina.

You can see a video clip from Spanish TV about the final climb guided by Purito's team mate Xavier Florencio by clicking here!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Jan Bakelants

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Gustavo Cesar Veloso

Explanation: We're yet to hit the big mountains but Contador will be keen to put down a marker in Andorra after his slight uphill stutter at Jaca in stage six. The Spaniard's attacking performance in stage three is a better indicator of his form than one small climb in which he was suffering from cramps and dehydration. Contador won't make the same mistake twice and he'll want to get in on the act after wins for both Valverde and Rodriguez. There is, of course, always the possibility of a break staying out - and you can bet casa on Andalucia being involved. Gustavo Cesar Veloso is a half-decent climber and is worth an outside punt - especially if his fellow escapees are also sufficiently low on GC. 

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 7

“But on the seventh day thou shalt rest”. The riders have been suffering from extreme temperatures in northern Spain the first six days of this Vuelta and even though this stage looks to be a sprint finish I wouldn’t be surprised if the peloton decides to take an early rest day and let a break fight it out.

There are no categorized climbs on the menu but since we are in Spain it’s safe to say that the riders will still be going up and down for most of the day. It’s another short stage, only 164 km, and once again temperatures around 35-40°c are expected on the way to the newly build MotorLand in Alcañiz.

John Degenkolb has been a level above the other sprinters in this Vuelta so far and I have to admit that my statement about Ben Swift being the fastest guy in the race doesn’t look good. Still, we haven’t seen Swifty and Degenkolb mano-a-mano so far. On Stage 2 Swift had to come from far behind and on Stage 5 he got boxed in after Bennati nearly made him and Davis crash when he opened his sprint. If Swift manages to position himself right I still believe he has what it takes to beat Degenkolb on the line. Therefore I’ll stick with him as my favorite if it comes to a sprint.

Final left-turn on the last km. Slightly uphill last 600 meters.

Still I have to say that it won’t be easy for the sprinters teams to keep it together. The fact that Degenkolb has been so superior in the first two bunch sprints means that it’s up to Argos-Shimano to catch the break and I honestly doubt they can do it alone. Katusha and Purito will be happy to give the jersey away - to rider out of the GC-fight - and save some energy for the coming battles.

It’s never easy to point out a single rider for a break on a stage like this one. Names like Philippe Gilbert, Alessandro Ballan and Jan Bakelants come to mind, plus how long can Euskaltel go without attacking? My joker for the stage is Lars Boom though. Boom comes with a fresh win from Eneco Tour and he knows how to hit the right breakaway. He has already won a stage in the Vuelta before and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lars Boom is the man giving Rabobank their first (and only?) win in this race.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Lars Boom

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Cameron Meyer

Explanation: The three best sprinters on the Tour de France all nailed a hat-trick of wins in July and so it makes perfect sense that the Vuelta's only decent sprinter achieves that feat in the opening week in Spain. Not only is the German youngster the fastest, his Argos Shimano train seems to be the best of a bad bunch. As such, a win for Degenkolb is entirely logical. That said, we have yet to see a break stay out on a flat stage so an escapee joker is on the cards. While it would make more sense to name someone from Andalucia or Caja Rural, I'm going to go for Cam Meyer. GreenEdge have been very active on the Vuelta and I expect that to continue. They need a plan B other than Allan Davis on the flat - and Meyer is now sufficiently low in GC not to warrant any alarm bells from the race favourites. If in the break he can use his track skills - a la Simon Clarke - to take the win. 

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 3 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 6

This stage has Purito written all over it. If the stage finish in Eibar was good for Purito this one is nearly perfect. The stage looks a lot like stage 5 from last year’s edition with the traditional finish in Valdepeñas de Jaén and even though the finish this time is a little longer, it still suits guys like Purito & Valverde very well.

The finish up to Fuerte del Rapitán is 2,8 km long with an average gradient of 7,5% and comes right after the Cat3 climb Puerto de Oroel, which according to former top climber Fernando Escartin isn't very difficult, but has a very fast downhill section with a lot of corners. "Therefore it's very important to be positioned in the front already on Puerto de Oroel if you want to have a chance to win the stage", Escartin points out.

The beginning of the last climb up to Fuerte del Rapitán.
2,8 km - average gradient of 7,5% - Parts of 14%

It’s not only the descent from Puerto de Oroel that includes many turns also the final climb to Fuerte del Rapitán can compete on that level. No less than 13 hairpin curves in the last two kilometer with parts up to 14% wait the riders before the finish line.

Purito missed out on stage 3 and said he was pissed at himself and never would let it happen again. I think he will be extremely motivated to take his first stage win in this Vuelta and especially while he’s wearing the red leader’s jersey. 

In Vuelta a Burgos he delivered Dani Moreno perfectly in the finals where Dani easily won and now it’s time to pay back the gesture. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dani even makes Top3 on this stage after setting up Purito.

Still my joker for the day is Bauke Mollema. He missed out on a good result in the Tour de France because of the big crash early in the race and he seems very eager to take revenge in the Vuelta. These kind of steep finishes are normally not really this thing but with the shape he’s showing right now I think he can surprise a few. Another thing that people tend to forget is that Mollema is actually very fast on the line and even though he can’t compete with guys like Valverde and Purito he is still a lot faster than many of the other guys.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Bauke Mollema

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Nicolas Roche

Joker: Pablo Lastras

Explanation: Nico has never won a stage on a Grand Tour and he's been riding well so far on his Saxo Bank work experience stint at the Vuelta. The Franco-Irish rider is never going to win a major mountains stage and he's not a big enough threat on GC to be denied access into a break and beyond. Could he finally come of age in the Pyrenean foothills? Probably not, but hey, there's no pressure in this competition: I have a 3-point lead and Mikkel is never going to guess the correct winner. Truth be told, Roche is just as much a wildcard as my choice for joker: the evergreen Pablo Lastras. With Valverde now out of red, the Spanish veteran is free to do his own thing, which usually translates as kicking ass in his home Tour. This could be his day - although deep down I feel that Vacansoleil may provide the winner of this unpredictable stage, a puncheur's paradise. 

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.