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Saturday, August 25, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 9

It’s the last stage before the first rest day and many riders are tired after more than a week in 35°c. It’s the second longest stage in this Vuelta España and I think it would suit the peloton perfectly if a break could get away. That being said there are quite a lot of riders who will have marked this stage in the race book for a potential sprint in Barcelona.

The stage is 196,3 km but actually it’s only the final 5 km you should be concerned about. Entering Barcelona the peloton faces Alto de Montjuic up to the Olympic stadium. It’s only 1,1 km long but an average gradient of 8,1% should bring the attacking feeling out in the many riders. From the top of Montjuic there are only 3,4 km to go and if a strong rider gets a gap he will be difficult to catch on the tricky descent before the last 700 meters uphill.

The final 5 km of stage 9 - click for larger view!

I know for a fact that Danish Matti Breschel has this stage red-circled and I’m sure he will try go for it if it comes to a sprint. Still I have to say my favorite for the win will be have to be Gianni Meersman (look ma', - not Swift!).

The Belgian sprinter has shown super shape in the first week and he even managed to stay with the best a long way up the nasty finish in Jaca where he ended 19^th on the stage. Lotto-Belisol haven’t really much to do in this race without Jurgen Van den Broeck going for the GC and if they are to get any kind of success Gianni Meersman will definitely be their best card to play.

For a joker I put my faith in Pim Ligthart. Vacansoleil-DCM have - as always - been very active in the breaks so far in this Vuelta but so far without getting much out of it. Thomas de Gendt came close the other day and same de Gendt told me before the Vuelta to keep an eye on Ligthart. So far the former Dutch champion hasn’t shown much but I think that if he can stay near the front on Montjuic he could be a good joker for the stage.

I can only pick one joker, but I would like to point out that this finish also suits Simon Clarke perfectly! I don’t know if GreenEdge want to give Davis another chance but in my opinion they should let Clarke have a crack at it. Purito has also said he would like to something in his home town and together with Dani Moreno, Katusha could really spice up this stage if they attack on Montjuic!

Winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Joker: Pim Ligthart

To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: José Joaquin Rojas

Joker: Biel Kadri

Explanation: The easy money is on John Degenkolb making it four but that tricky Montjuic climb towards the end could well prove too hard for Argos Shimano to control. Jose Rojas has been quiet so far but he should get over the rise and then have enough juice to take the sprint in Barcelona. As for a wildcard, Biel Kadri is a nice all rounder who could pull off a win from a break. It's a bit of a stab in the dark, but that's the point of choosing a joker!

Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 8

Okay. Let’s get it over with. Third time was not the charm for Swifty - it was third strike instead. I think I’ll jump on the Degenkolb wagon from now on and with that out of the way, let’s have a look at stage 8 to Andorra.

While the finish to Estación de Valdezcaray on stage 4 wasn’t really steep I can assure you that it will be to Andorra. The category1 climb Collada de la Gallina is 7,2 km with an average gradient of 8%. it’s a nasty climb with more than just few parts of 15% and compared to stage 4 you can’t hide in a big group this time. Not if you want to be in the front!

The peloton enters Andorra after 134,9 km (40 km to go from there) and that means there won’t be an easy part of road from there on and to the finish line. With 20 km to go Alto de la Comella starts. It’s a category2 climb and despite its average gradient of “just” 5,2% the last kilometer doesn’t drop below 11%. The descent from Alto de la Comella is very tricky and technical and once again you need to be in the front already in order to start Collada de la Gallina in a winning position.

Collada de la Gallina. 7,2 km - 8% avg.

My favorite for the stage is Purito. I thought he might would have let go of the Red jersey on stage 7, but there is no way he is giving away just before entering his home town the following. Purito lives very near this climb and knows it better than the most and I haven’t seen anything so far that would make me doubt his strength. I think (and hope!) that Alberto Contador will go hard and keep on attacking in order to get away, but it will be very difficult for him to drop Purito.

On Arrate Contador showed that he can drop Froome with his accelerations and this time I think Purito will help him out if they get away together. Rumor has it that Contador and Purito have never really been the best of friends but on Collada de la Gallina they could take a huge step towards the overall podium if they manage to work together.

As I said I doubt Purito will let the jersey go, so you better be way out of the overall classification before you even think about going into a breakaway. That being said I think it’s time to see guys like David Moncoutie, David de la Fuente, Amets Txurruka and Damiano Cunego make an appearance in this race. Moncoutie crashed hard in the Tour and said just before the Vuelta that he still had problems standing up attacking the climbs. He might need a few days before he’s a good pick. Still if he is ready now, he is a solid candidate for a breakaway win.

My personal joker for the stage is Damiano Cunego. The “Little Italian Prince” didn’t come to this Vuelta to chase a good overall place but instead to get in shape for the World Champions on a course that has never been better for him. Cunego has lost time every time the road went uphill in this Vuelta and again today he lost time in the hectic finish with the crash and the cross wind. Afterwards Cunego said that he just took it easy since he is only in the race to go for a stage win. I think he will fancy a chance tomorrow but I’m sure Felix wouldn’t agree to downgrade Cunego to a “joker”, so instead my joker pick will be Jan Bakelants.

Bakelants has shown great condition the last month and being almost seven minutes down in the overall classification Katusha shouldn’t worry too much about him taking the jersey. Bakelants has been in the mix in the other uphill finishes so far and he has shown, just before the Vuelta, that he is not afraid of attacking. If he can hit the right break he could be very dangerous on Collada de la Gallina.

You can see a video clip from Spanish TV about the final climb guided by Purito's team mate Xavier Florencio by clicking here!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Jan Bakelants

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Gustavo Cesar Veloso

Explanation: We're yet to hit the big mountains but Contador will be keen to put down a marker in Andorra after his slight uphill stutter at Jaca in stage six. The Spaniard's attacking performance in stage three is a better indicator of his form than one small climb in which he was suffering from cramps and dehydration. Contador won't make the same mistake twice and he'll want to get in on the act after wins for both Valverde and Rodriguez. There is, of course, always the possibility of a break staying out - and you can bet casa on Andalucia being involved. Gustavo Cesar Veloso is a half-decent climber and is worth an outside punt - especially if his fellow escapees are also sufficiently low on GC.

Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 7

“But on the seventh day thou shalt rest”. The riders have been suffering from extreme temperatures in northern Spain the first six days of this Vuelta and even though this stage looks to be a sprint finish I wouldn’t be surprised if the peloton decides to take an early rest day and let a break fight it out.

There are no categorized climbs on the menu but since we are in Spain it’s safe to say that the riders will still be going up and down for most of the day. It’s another short stage, only 164 km, and once again temperatures around 35-40°c are expected on the way to the newly build MotorLand in Alcañiz.

John Degenkolb has been a level above the other sprinters in this Vuelta so far and I have to admit that my statement about Ben Swift being the fastest guy in the race doesn’t look good. Still, we haven’t seen Swifty and Degenkolb mano-a-mano so far. On Stage 2 Swift had to come from far behind and on Stage 5 he got boxed in after Bennati nearly made him and Davis crash when he opened his sprint. If Swift manages to position himself right I still believe he has what it takes to beat Degenkolb on the line. Therefore I’ll stick with him as my favorite if it comes to a sprint.

Final left-turn on the last km. Slightly uphill last 600 meters.

Still I have to say that it won’t be easy for the sprinters teams to keep it together. The fact that Degenkolb has been so superior in the first two bunch sprints means that it’s up to Argos-Shimano to catch the break and I honestly doubt they can do it alone. Katusha and Purito will be happy to give the jersey away - to rider out of the GC-fight - and save some energy for the coming battles.

It’s never easy to point out a single rider for a break on a stage like this one. Names like Philippe Gilbert, Alessandro Ballan and Jan Bakelants come to mind, plus how long can Euskaltel go without attacking? My joker for the stage is Lars Boom though. Boom comes with a fresh win from Eneco Tour and he knows how to hit the right breakaway. He has already won a stage in the Vuelta before and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lars Boom is the man giving Rabobank their first (and only?) win in this race.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Lars Boom

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Cameron Meyer

Explanation: The three best sprinters on the Tour de France all nailed a hat-trick of wins in July and so it makes perfect sense that the Vuelta's only decent sprinter achieves that feat in the opening week in Spain. Not only is the German youngster the fastest, his Argos Shimano train seems to be the best of a bad bunch. As such, a win for Degenkolb is entirely logical. That said, we have yet to see a break stay out on a flat stage so an escapee joker is on the cards. While it would make more sense to name someone from Andalucia or Caja Rural, I'm going to go for Cam Meyer. GreenEdge have been very active on the Vuelta and I expect that to continue. They need a plan B other than Allan Davis on the flat - and Meyer is now sufficiently low in GC not to warrant any alarm bells from the race favourites. If in the break he can use his track skills - a la Simon Clarke - to take the win.

Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 3 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 6

This stage has Purito written all over it. If the stage finish in Eibar was good for Purito this one is nearly perfect. The stage looks a lot like stage 5 from last year’s edition with the traditional finish in Valdepeñas de Jaén and even though the finish this time is a little longer, it still suits guys like Purito & Valverde very well.

The finish up to Fuerte del Rapitán is 2,8 km long with an average gradient of 7,5% and comes right after the Cat3 climb Puerto de Oroel, which according to former top climber Fernando Escartin isn't very difficult, but has a very fast downhill section with a lot of corners. "Therefore it's very important to be positioned in the front already on Puerto de Oroel if you want to have a chance to win the stage", Escartin points out.

The beginning of the last climb up to Fuerte del Rapitán.
2,8 km - average gradient of 7,5% - Parts of 14%

It’s not only the descent from Puerto de Oroel that includes many turns also the final climb to Fuerte del Rapitán can compete on that level. No less than 13 hairpin curves in the last two kilometer with parts up to 14% wait the riders before the finish line.

Purito missed out on stage 3 and said he was pissed at himself and never would let it happen again. I think he will be extremely motivated to take his first stage win in this Vuelta and especially while he’s wearing the red leader’s jersey.

In Vuelta a Burgos he delivered Dani Moreno perfectly in the finals where Dani easily won and now it’s time to pay back the gesture. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dani even makes Top3 on this stage after setting up Purito.

Still my joker for the day is Bauke Mollema. He missed out on a good result in the Tour de France because of the big crash early in the race and he seems very eager to take revenge in the Vuelta. These kind of steep finishes are normally not really this thing but with the shape he’s showing right now I think he can surprise a few. Another thing that people tend to forget is that Mollema is actually very fast on the line and even though he can’t compete with guys like Valverde and Purito he is still a lot faster than many of the other guys.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Bauke Mollema

Winner pick: Nicolas Roche

Joker: Pablo Lastras

Explanation: Nico has never won a stage on a Grand Tour and he's been riding well so far on his Saxo Bank work experience stint at the Vuelta. The Franco-Irish rider is never going to win a major mountains stage and he's not a big enough threat on GC to be denied access into a break and beyond. Could he finally come of age in the Pyrenean foothills? Probably not, but hey, there's no pressure in this competition: I have a 3-point lead and Mikkel is never going to guess the correct winner. Truth be told, Roche is just as much a wildcard as my choice for joker: the evergreen Pablo Lastras. With Valverde now out of red, the Spanish veteran is free to do his own thing, which usually translates as kicking ass in his home Tour. This could be his day - although deep down I feel that Vacansoleil may provide the winner of this unpredictable stage, a puncheur's paradise.

Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 5

After two stages for the climbers it’s now time for the fast guys to fight for the stage win. It’s another relatively short stage, only 168 km, with 8 laps of 21 km in Logroño, meaning that the sprinters will get time to study the finish before the end.

It’s a tricky route and even though the last kilometer if flat on the big Avenida de la Paz there are some difficult turns the riders need to pay attention to. About two kilometers from the line the route turns right in roundabout before turning left in another one 500 meters later. The last turn comes just before “flame rouge” where the riders turn right in a 90° curve.

It seems to be another hot day in Spain and with an expected head win the last kilometer, the sprinters need to save energy for as long as possible. My pick is once again Ben Swift who is strong in a tricky finish like this one and who I still see as the fastest guy in the race. On stage 2 he was in a terrible position in end and had to come from behind and got out in the wind way too early. Allan Davis and John Degenkolb took his wheel and only managed to pass him on the last 50 meters.

Last 4 km - click for larger view!

Swifty’s only problem is that Team Sky’s focus is on Chris Froome and the overall classification and that means he will only have Flecha and Stannard to help out in the end. Still, Swift showed to have an incredible kick on stage 2 and if he manages to arrive in a good position he shouldn’t have any problems taking his first (of many?) stages in this Vuelta.

My joker for the stage is Manuel Cardoso who’s been good in the Vuelta before. Cardoso’s team mate Marcos Garcia got world famous when he celebrated his 4^th place on stage 4 as had he won it and it would be nice for the little Caja Rural team if they got some real success now. I doubt Cardoso can beat guys like Davis, Degenkolb and Swift but he’s used to the warm temperatures and he knows how to perform in a bunch sprint after a tough mountain stage. Furthermore, without a team to take control in the finale, the sprints will get very chaotic and that could be just what Cardoso needs to surprise the pack like he did when he won in Tour Down Under a couple of years ago.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Klaas Lodewyck

Explanation: The return to the Spanish plains should give the sprinters another rare chance to do battle in this year's mountains-heavy Vuelta. Swifty missed out on stage two but I expect him to draw level with Degenkolb on Wednesday. But Belgian youngster Lodewyck has been zesty so far and you get the impression he's enjoying being the joker of the pack.

Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 4

Close, but - despite the name - no cigar for Purito on stage 3 after he stopped pedaling the last 5 meters. Afterwards Purito said he was “pissed at himself for not winning a stage he practically had in his hands” and you can understand his frustration. Stage winner Alejandro Valverde lost Tour Down Under on bonus seconds earlier this year because he stopped pedaling just before the line, he learned his lesson and I’m sure Purito has done so too now.

New asphalt on the road to Valdezcaray.

Good thing for Purito is that he already has another change of success on stage 4. 160 km finishing at the Valdezcaray Ski Resort with a 13,4 km Category1 climb. The Rioja government recently spent 234.600 Euros on improving the Valdezcaray road (LR-416) so at least the riders can’t complain about the road conditions.

The climb itself isn’t very difficult and with an average gradient of 5,2% it’s definitely one of “lightest” mountains in this Vuelta. The steepest part is in the very beginning with 7,8 & 9% over the first four kilometers, but with the expected head wind it will be difficult to attack and stay alone in the front. Especially because the last 3,4 kilometers almost are flat (1-3%) compared to earlier.

Alberto Contador showed to be the strongest on Alto de Arrate on stage 3 attacking 6-7 times and I expect him to continue that on his way to Valdezcaray. Looking at the finish it should be another fight between Purito and Valverde though, but it’s an open climb with a lot of wind and if Purito isn’t 100% mentally ready again after his mistake on stage 3 he could be suffering a lot - as he has done in the past on these kind of “light”, long climbs. I still think Purito will stay up front with the best but I must say I think it will be another Katusha rider who’ll take the win.

Final climb - click for larger view!

Because this is such an “easy” second part of the climb it’s very likely that a big group with many of the favorites and some strong team mates swill be together in the end and if so I think Purito’s team mate Dani Moreno could be a good pick. Moreno just won Vuelta a Burgos overall two weeks ago after winning two stages with an uphill sprint finish and that could very well happen again in Valdezcaray.

Alberto Contador would be the natural winner pick here, but as I said, this “easy” finish suits Dani Moreno a lot better. We are still in Pais Vasco and that means that the Basque riders of course will try sneak away and snatch a stage win. It’s not a good climb for Igor Antón but instead his team mate Mikel Landa. It’s true that Landa almost lost two minutes on stage 3 but I still think he will be able to put in a strong attack. Plus the fact that he did lose time on Arrate means that the other favorites won’t go after him right away.

I think it will be a sprint in selected group of favorites but if not, Landa could be a good pick on home soil.

Winner pick: Dani Moreno

Joker: Mikel Landa

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Amets Txurruka

Explanation: Bert showed enough on the final climb of Arrate to show that he's in great form. On a longer, more arduous ascent we can expect him to take the win without too much ado. As for my joker, well, Euskaltel missed a trick on Monday and the only way to make up will be a win near the Basque region. Txurruka to get in the day's main break and hold on is my wildcard choice.

Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Vuelta Preview - Stage 3

If you have been following the Vuelta a Pais Vasco the last years the finish on Alto de Arrate won’t be unknown to you. Samuel Sanchez has won here the last three times but also Purito has proven to be strong on this climb.

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before Alto de Arrate and with the stage only being 155,3 km long we are in for another hard day - especially in this extreme heat. Most likely a group of 4-5 riders will get away early and fight for the KOM points but I’m pretty sure it will all come back together on the final climb. An important factor in this Vuelta is the bonus seconds on the finishing line and with 12 seconds to the winner you can be sure that the overall favorite will do everything they can to take the stage win.

Alto de Arrate. 2 km to go from the top.

Alberto Contador already showed on stage 2 how important the bonus seconds are to him, when he took 2 seconds in front of his rivals and being only 14 seconds after the GC, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over the Red jersey from Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo after the stage. Personally I think it will be a fight between Contador and Purito on Alto de Arrate and if they arrive together Purito will win the stage having the strongest sprint. As Samuel Sanchez has shown time after time it’s essential to be first in the last corner with 250 meters to go and Purito knows that as he took 2^nd place after Sanchez earlier this year.

Alejandro Valverde is a bit of dark horse as this finish suits him very well, but wasn’t really set to do the Vuelta until the very last moment. If he’s ready this could be his day - as he would get the leader’s jersey too - but I have more faith in Purito to be honest.

As said I expect this to be a fight for the stage win between the overall favorites but if I should mention a joker it would be Javier Moreno from Movistar. Moreno finally got his chance with a ProTour team this year when he signed with Movistar and he showed right away how strong he is on the uphill sections when he - all alone - railed back all breakaway attempt on Willunga Hill so Valverde could sprint to victory. Moreno has been great the entire season, latest in Vuelta a Burgos, and if he gets the green light I’m sure he will try an attack on Arrate.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Javi Moreno

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Romain Sicard

Explanation: The French veteran is going for a fifth successive king of the mountains title but given the brutal parcours this year, Moncoutie will need to rack up the points as early as possible. It remainds to be seen how he’s riding following that nasty fall in the Tour, but Moncoutie may be tempted to puit down a marker today. Alejandro Valverde was a tempting choice for the win because he seems to be riding into some form – plus he would clearly like the idea of wearing red on his return to the Vuelta after a three-year absence. For my wildcard, how about Romain Sicard? The French rider from Bayonne is a tidy climber and this is the only stage that ventures into the Basque region so expect a sea of orange on the final Alto de Arrate. That said, Igor Anton and Amets Txurruka are probably more likely options... while Juan Manuel Garate might find some form in his old legs on the Arrate.