Vuelta Preview - Stage 5

After two stages for the climbers it’s now time for the fast guys to fight for the stage win. It’s another relatively short stage, only 168 km, with 8 laps of 21 km in Logroño, meaning that the sprinters will get time to study the finish before the end.

It’s a tricky route and even though the last kilometer if flat on the big Avenida de la Paz there are some difficult turns the riders need to pay attention to. About two kilometers from the line the route turns right in roundabout before turning left in another one 500 meters later. The last turn comes just before “flame rouge” where the riders turn right in a 90° curve.

It seems to be another hot day in Spain and with an expected head win the last kilometer, the sprinters need to save energy for as long as possible. My pick is once again Ben Swift who is strong in a tricky finish like this one and who I still see as the fastest guy in the race. On stage 2 he was in a terrible position in end and had to come from behind and got out in the wind way too early. Allan Davis and John Degenkolb took his wheel and only managed to pass him on the last 50 meters. 

Last 4 km - click for larger view!

Swifty’s only problem is that Team Sky’s focus is on Chris Froome and the overall classification and that means he will only have Flecha and Stannard to help out in the end. Still, Swift showed to have an incredible kick on stage 2 and if he manages to arrive in a good position he shouldn’t have  any problems taking his first (of many?) stages in this Vuelta.

My joker for the stage is Manuel Cardoso who’s been good in the Vuelta before. Cardoso’s team mate Marcos Garcia got world famous when he celebrated his 4^th place on stage 4 as had he won it and it would be nice for the little Caja Rural team if they got some real success now. I doubt Cardoso can beat guys like Davis, Degenkolb and Swift but he’s used to the warm temperatures and he knows how to perform in a bunch sprint after a tough mountain stage.  Furthermore, without a team to take control in the finale, the sprints will get very chaotic and that could be just what Cardoso needs to surprise the pack like he did when he won in Tour Down Under a couple of years ago.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Klaas Lodewyck

Explanation: The return to the Spanish plains should give the sprinters another rare chance to do battle in this year's mountains-heavy Vuelta. Swifty missed out on stage two but I expect him to draw level with Degenkolb on Wednesday. But Belgian youngster Lodewyck has been zesty so far and you get the impression he's enjoying being the joker of the pack. 

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 4

Close, but - despite the name - no cigar for Purito on stage 3 after he stopped pedaling the last 5 meters. Afterwards Purito said he was “pissed at himself for not winning a stage he practically had in his hands” and you can understand his frustration. Stage winner Alejandro Valverde lost Tour Down Under on bonus seconds earlier this year because he stopped pedaling just before the line, he learned his lesson and I’m sure Purito has done so too now.

New asphalt on the road to Valdezcaray. 

Good thing for Purito is that he already has another change of success on stage 4. 160 km finishing at the Valdezcaray Ski Resort with a 13,4 km Category1 climb. The Rioja government recently spent 234.600 Euros on improving the Valdezcaray road (LR-416) so at least the riders can’t complain about the road conditions.

The climb itself isn’t very difficult and with an average gradient of 5,2% it’s definitely one of “lightest” mountains in this Vuelta. The steepest part is in the very beginning with 7,8 & 9% over the first four kilometers, but with the expected head wind it will be difficult to attack and stay alone in the front. Especially because the last 3,4 kilometers almost are flat (1-3%) compared to earlier.

Alberto Contador showed to be the strongest on Alto de Arrate on stage 3 attacking 6-7 times and I expect him to continue that on his way to Valdezcaray. Looking at the finish it should be another fight between Purito and Valverde though, but it’s an open climb with a lot of wind and if Purito isn’t 100% mentally ready again after his mistake on stage 3 he could be suffering a lot - as he has done in the past on these kind of “light”, long climbs. I still think Purito will stay up front with the best but I must say I think it will be another Katusha rider who’ll take the win.

Final climb - click for larger view!

Because this is such an “easy” second part of the climb it’s very likely that a big group with many of the favorites and some strong team mates swill be together in the end and if so I think Purito’s team mate Dani Moreno could be a good pick. Moreno just won Vuelta a Burgos overall two weeks ago after winning two stages with an uphill sprint finish and that could very well happen again in Valdezcaray.

Alberto Contador would be the natural winner pick here, but as I said, this “easy” finish suits Dani Moreno a lot better. We are still in Pais Vasco and that means that the Basque riders of course will try sneak away and snatch a stage win. It’s not a good climb for Igor Antón but instead his team mate Mikel Landa. It’s true that Landa almost lost two minutes on stage 3 but I still think he will be able to put in a strong attack. Plus the fact that he did lose time on Arrate means that the other favorites won’t go after him right away.

I think it will be a sprint in selected group of favorites but if not, Landa could be a good pick on home soil.

Winner pick: Dani Moreno

Joker: Mikel Landa

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Amets Txurruka

Explanation: Bert showed enough on the final climb of Arrate to show that he's in great form. On a longer, more arduous ascent we can expect him to take the win without too much ado. As for my joker, well, Euskaltel missed a trick on Monday and the only way to make up will be a win near the Basque region. Txurruka to get in the day's main break and hold on is my wildcard choice.

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 3

If you have been following the Vuelta a Pais Vasco the last years the finish on Alto de Arrate won’t be unknown to you. Samuel Sanchez has won here the last three times but also Purito has proven to be strong on this climb.

There are three categorized climbs on the menu before Alto de Arrate and with the stage only being 155,3 km long we are in for another hard day - especially in this extreme heat. Most likely a group of 4-5 riders will get away early and fight for the KOM points but I’m pretty sure it will all come back together on the final climb. An important factor in this Vuelta is the bonus seconds on the finishing line and with 12 seconds to the winner you can be sure that the overall favorite will do everything they can to take the stage win.

Alto de Arrate. 2 km to go from the top.

Alberto Contador already showed on stage 2 how important the bonus seconds are to him, when he took 2 seconds in front of his rivals and being only 14 seconds after the GC, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over the Red jersey from Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo after the stage. Personally I think it will be a fight between Contador and Purito on Alto de Arrate and if they arrive together Purito will win the stage having the strongest sprint. As Samuel Sanchez has shown time after time it’s essential to be first in the last corner with 250 meters to go and Purito knows that as he took 2^nd place after Sanchez earlier this year. 

Alejandro Valverde is a bit of dark horse as this finish suits him very well, but wasn’t really set to do the Vuelta until the very last moment. If he’s ready this could be his day - as he would get the leader’s jersey too - but I have more faith in Purito to be honest.

As said I expect this to be a fight for the stage win between the overall favorites but if I should mention a joker it would be Javier Moreno from Movistar. Moreno finally got his chance with a ProTour team this year when he signed with Movistar and he showed right away how strong he is on the uphill sections when he - all alone - railed back all breakaway attempt on Willunga Hill so Valverde could sprint to victory.  Moreno has been great the entire season, latest in Vuelta a Burgos, and if he gets the green light I’m sure he will try an attack on Arrate.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Javi Moreno

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Romain Sicard

Explanation: The French veteran is going for a fifth successive king of the mountains title but given the brutal parcours this year, Moncoutie will need to rack up the points as early as possible. It remainds to be seen how he’s riding following that nasty fall in the Tour, but Moncoutie may be tempted to puit down a marker today. Alejandro Valverde was a tempting choice for the win because he seems to be riding into some form – plus he would clearly like the idea of wearing red on his return to the Vuelta after a three-year absence. For my wildcard, how about Romain Sicard? The French rider from Bayonne is a tidy climber and this is the only stage that ventures into the Basque region so expect a sea of orange on the final Alto de Arrate. That said, Igor Anton and Amets Txurruka are probably more likely options... while Juan Manuel Garate might find some form in his old legs on the Arrate.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 2

It looked like an easy win for Team Sky in the opening team time trial but despite clocking the fastest time at the check point, Chris Froome and co. couldn’t keep up the high speed and ended up losing 12 seconds to Movistar at the finish. I think the Brits are eager to take revenge and the way I see it they have the fastest guy in the peloton to count on in the expected bunch sprint on stage 2. More on that in a bit.

First let’s take a look at the route. Despite it being a flat stage it’s up and down all day long. Not very difficult climbs, but enough to make it hard in hot weather. A Cat3 climb (Alto de la Chapela) is located with about 100 km to go and being the only categorized climb on the menu, we should get a good fight between the escapees to get first mountain jersey of this year’s Vuelta. The final 20 km is pancake flat and the last 5 km straight out run-in should make for a high speed finale. Still, this is the Vuelta and not surprisingly there is a roundabout with about 500 meters to go that could be tricky for some.

Last km - click for larger view!

My favorite for this stage is Ben Swift. The young Brit was devastated when he crashed out of the Giro on the day before it was about to start and he has been working hard in order to show the world what he can do in a Grand Tour. A month ago Swift won two stages in Tour de Pologne where he ended in the top3 in the other two bunch sprints. I have Swifty down to win 3 or 4 stages in this Vuelta España and I think the first win will come on stage 2.

Without any super sprinters the level is fairly equal and if the young French champion Nacer Bouhanni has something left en tank I think he could be up there too. I doubt he can win, but looking at the competition anywhere near top3 means the stage win is within reach.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Nacer Bouhanni

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Philippe Gilbet

Explanation: Picking Philippe Gilbert as a wildcard stage winner 12 months ago would have been ridiculous but more laughable now is the fact that the Belgian is still in search of that elusive win in BMC colours. PhilGil looked pretty determined as he led his team over the line in Pamplona and so perhaps he has the legs to try something in Viana, which has a slight uphill rise to the line. More likely, it will be a bunch affair and the Argos Shimano team of John Degenkolb took things easy on Saturday, perhaps with Sunday's stage in mind. Degenkolb is as swift as Swift on his day - and it remains to be seen how Team Sky treat the flat stages. Protecting Chris Froome may be the priority...

Vuelta Interview - Denis Menchov

Denis Menchov had his whole season built around the Tour de France but after a good start he faded off and never got to be the key player in the classification that he had hoped to be. Many thought that would be the end of Menchov’s season but to make sure that his home country’s team can get another GT podium this year, he decided to do the Vuelta as super domestique for Purito. Here is what he told me the day before the start of the Vuelta.

Denis, first of all, can you put a few words on your Tour de France performance?

I started  out well and then I had a crises, which of course came as bad surprise for me. Unfortunately that can happen in sport, especially on the highest level. I didn’t lose my motivation though. I know that you always need two or three days to recover from such a thing.

And now it’s time for the Vuelta. Are you here only to support Purito or what is your role on the team?

Well, for me the most important is the team’s results. Of course I want to do a good race myself, but it’s more important for me that Katusha get a good result than I do. I will do my best and if that means I can take a win, why not do it?

What do you think about this year’s route? Seems to be very good for Purito...

Sure, I think it’s a very good route for him, like last year. Actually they are quite similar I think. I don’t see it as super hard, but instead very nervous and with a hard final part of the race. It suits him well.

Have you already checked out any of the stages?

I have only studied the course in the road book and on the internet because I already know the important stages and climbs of this edition’s race. Personally I like the stages in the third week the most, specially stage 15 to Lagos de Covadonga.

How about the opening team time trial? Is that a goal?

For sure, but it’s a goal for a lot of teams. We will try to do the best TTT we have ever done and by that gain some time on our main rivals. Of course the best would be to win it.

Looking at the other favorites for the overall classification. Who do you see as the main rivals?

Except for Contador I will say Froome, Cobo, Valverde and Antón. Froome might be a little tired because the Tour was very stress and normally you would some rest after a race like that. But of course he is motivated since it’s the first time he can be the team leader of Team Sky.

Last question. How does your future look?

Well, my plan is to stay with Katusha.  it’s a really strong team and I’m happy to be in this group. I’m glad I still have one more year left here.  

Vuelta Preview - Stage 1

Have you ever wondered how it would be to do the classic Basque ‘San Fermin’ bull run on a top class bicycle? Well if you are among the few with that kind of desires you should be doing the Vuelta España this year. Not only does the race start out in Pamplona but the course for the opening team time trial actually includes the final parts of the bull run route finishing inside the bullfighting arena.

Miguel Indurain has been helping out designing this spectacular route and the former grand champion points out how important it is to get the machine running smoothly in the first part of the route. The stage starts out on big roads without any real danger and this is where the teams need to get into time trial mode as fast as possible. 

Teams with big engines like Quickstep (Tony Martin) and Team Sky (Chris Froome & Richie Porte) will have an advantage in the beginning before the roads become narrow and the corners tricky and if they can manage to keep the lead I expect them to have at the check point, I think they will be difficult to catch if they can avoid crashes in the last part of the stage.

One of the teams that could surprise on this course is Katusha. In the Giro they came out of nowhere and took 2^nd place after Garmin. A huge surprise at the time and if they can repeat that perfect performance this time (remember they even have Menchov to help out now), I think Purito will be able to take some valuable time on Contador and Antón from the very beginning of the Vuelta.

Winner pick: Team Sky
Joker: Katusha

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Team Sky

Joker: Garmin

Explanation: Usually, Garmin boss these kind of events but Jonathan Vaughters has sent a team of relative unknowns (plus a former doper riding his first major race since 2007) and so the inculcated robots of Team Sky have to be favourites. But if the Garmin boys can keep true to their team's ethos, then an upset could be on the cards. To be fair, none of the teams on paper – not least the Spanish ones – seem entirely comfortable against the clock as a unit, but the time losses won't be huge because it's not a very long course. Perhaps they should release some of Pamplona's famous bulls to up the ante a little...

Vuelta España - Preview & Favorites

If you know a little about cycling - and let’s be honest, the fact that you are reading this now means you’re not a rookie - you know there is one rider above everybody else for this Vuelta España. Alberto Contador is back and if you think he latest Grand Tour performance (Tour de France 2011) showed his real level, you’re very wrong.

Alberto Contador is THE favorite for this Vuelta and if he stays upright and avoid any bad luck it will be a surprise even bigger than Juanjo Cobo’s overall win last year, if he doesn’t wear the red leader’s jersey in Madrid.

Looking at the route one could argue that it favors explosive riders like Purito a bit more than Contador, but the fact is that any route suiting a climber suits Alberto Contador too. Team Saxo Bank desperately need a big victory and the way I see it anything but the overall win will be a big disappointment for the Danish team.  I could write several pages up and down about why Alberto Contador will win this race, but I really don’t see the point in it. Instead let’s take a look at some of the riders fighting for the last to spots on the final podium.

Forgetting Contador I count three riders with a solid chance of doing Top3 in this Vuelta. First one is Chris Froome. Despite an outstanding performance in the Tour de France the ex-Kenyan still feels ready to rock in Spain and remember that the Vuelta always has been Froome’s main goal this season. He showed in the Tour that last year’s Vuelta podium wasn’t a one-time-only achievement and with strong riders like Henao, Uran and &Porte to help in the mountains, Chris Froome will be the most dangerous rival to Alberto Contador. Froome himself calls this “the big chance of my life” and he says he still feels fresh despite going all-in in both the Tour and the Olympics.

The way I see it another podium spot for Froome should be a sure thing, but it requires he can keep his high level from the Tour and that won’t be easy in the last week and especially on Bola del Mundo. If Chris Froome is ready he most likely takes 2^nd place overall but if not, Team Sky could end up riding for Sergio Henao or Rigoberto Uran instead.

Not many riders - if any - can follow
Purito on a short, steep finish.

Next rider up is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Purito showed in the Giro earlier this year that he has what it takes to win a Grand Tour and as I said, this route looks to be designed by Purito himself. A lot of steep uphill finishes, a short team time trial (where Katusha nowadays are among the favorites) and only one time trial that even includes a climb in the middle. This is Purito’s biggest chance ever to finally get on the Vuelta podium and hadn’t it been for Contador’s presence I would have tipped him to win it. 

To support him in the mountains, Purito once again has Dani Moreno as his right hand but also Denis Menchov has decided to chip in and help out when needed. Both Dani and Menchov could probably do Top5 overall had they been team leaders on other teams and together with Alberto Losada, who seems to be very strong right now, Katusha is surely one of the best teams in this race. I will be surprised if Purito won’t be on the final podium in Madrid.

Last rider I see with a real chance of the podium is Igor Antón. It’s an even year this time and that means that the Basque climber will be ready, or at least so it seems. In 2008 Antón was called up to be the biggest threat to Alberto Contador in the Vuelta but unfortunately Antón had to abandon after a crash early on the Queen Stage to Angliru. In 2009 Igor Antón barely showed anything, but in 2010 he was back – better than ever! Anyone following the Vuelta that year can agree that Igor Antón would have won the race hadn’t it been for a horrible crash with less than a week to go. Antón was leading the Vuelta and seemed to have a gear more than the others uphill, but once again his race was ruined by a crash.

Last year Antón decided to change his program and do the Giro before the Vuelta. He took a beautiful stage win on Zoncolan, but the hard race had drained him for the Vuelta where he couldn’t stay with best. This year Igor Antón hasn’t showed much so far and that is actually a good sign. According to himself he feels as good as back in 2010 and with his strong performance on the mountain stage in Vuelta a Burgos and in Classica San Sebastian earlier this week I think we will see Igor Antón as strong as ever in this Vuelta.

Some might argue that riders like Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Juanjo Cobo and Jurgen Van den Broeck should be named as well as riders with a chance of the podium, but I must admit that I can’t see it happen. Gesink and Mollema seems to be a strong duo and they definitely want revenge from the Tour, but both of them still need to show they can stay with the best in all three weeks. For what concerns Cobo and VdB I just simply don’t think they have anything to show in this race. Cobo took the cycling world by surprise last year but I strongly doubt he can do it again this time – and let me remind you that Cobo often fails when he changes teams.

Quintana makes climbing look easy.

Instead I think Movistar will do a lot better with guys like Beñat Intxausti and Nairo Quintana, not to mention Javier Moreno. Intxausti showed to strong in the Giro but had one bad day and lost his GC. If he can be steady this time he could very well end up being the best Movistar rider in the final classification. Nairo Quintana is another interesting rider. This young guy is a born climber and when he’s in shape he makes even the most difficult climbs look easy. I have Quintana down for winning the Giro or the Vuelta in two or three years and I wouldn’t be surprised if he already took a stage win this year and maybe the mountain jersey too.

There is no fun without a couple of jokers and of course I have a few for you as well this time. First up is Andrew Talansky. There is no doubt that this young American is a future Tour de France contender and given the leader role in the Vuelta I think (and hope) Talansky is ready to prove me right. In Volta ao Algarve, Tour de Romandie and latest in Tour de l'Ain he showed small glimpse of what he can do and even though he might had preferred another time trial in the race I think his strong climbing abilities will be enough to give him a spot in the final Top10.

Same goes for Eros Capecchi who has been one of my favorite “talents” for (too?) many years now. Capecchi was outstanding in his U-23 years but he still hasn’t had his big breakthrough on the professional scene. In Giro del Trentino this year he showed to be one of the strongest in the mountains, working for Szmyd and in Giro d’Italia he showed the world how strong he was as super domestique for Ivan Basso. The route suits Capecchi very well and being quite fast on the line as well, there are many stages where the Italian can try his luck for a stage win. Capecchi will be riding for Movistar next year and if he wants to get a chance of being team leader in Giro d’Italia he needs to show that he can perform over three weeks when he’s the designated leader. I hope Eros Capecchi will be able to make Top10, but Top15 might be a more realistic goal.

There are a lot of riders fighting for the places from 5^th to 20^th in the overall classification and to give you a better idea about how I see their chances I have decided to give you my own Pre-Top20 for this year’s Vuelta España right here. Enjoy and thanks for reading!

1. Contador

2. Froome

3. Purito 

4. Antón

5. Gesink

6. Henao

7. Tiralongo

8. Mollema

9. Talansky

10. Quintana

11. Machado

12. Intxausti

13. Uran

14. Capecchi

15. Dani

16. Cobo

17. Monfort

18. Kessiakoff

19. Cataldo

20. Cunego