Tour Preview - Stage 20

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Champagne time! Or at least until the riders enter the centre of Paris. From here on it’s hardcore racing for the win on Champs-Élysées and most likely it will end up in a mass sprint.

Favorites:

Showing on Stage18 that he is still kicking and ready for the Olympics, Mark Cavendish will be the man to beat in order to win Sunday afternoon. For the first time in this Tour de France, Cavendish will have a whole team able to work for him and personally I’m looking forward to see the yellow jersey working for the World Champion…

Especially the fact that Team Sky now finally will be able to give Cavendish his leadout train will be an interesting factor since it will be the first they will be competing against Lotto-Belisol in order to deliver their sprinter in the perfect position. In the beginning of the race, Andre Greipel got everything like he wanted and finished it off perfectly with one stage win after the other, but I doubt it will be that easy for him on Champs-Élysées.

One of my own jokers for the stage is Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s Juan José Haedo. Haedo is a real power sprinter and not many in this sport can match his top speed on the final meters. If Haedo manages to get on the right wheel in the final I think he can do some damage and even though I doubt he can win the stage I think top3 is within his reach.

If you are looking for a super-super joker, try Luisle Sanchez or Alexander Vinokourov. Sanchez was once again (!) denied a stage win due to Team Sky’s superiority in the final time trial and he seems to be going very strong in the end of this Tour. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to attack on the final laps on Champs-Élysées and why not together with Alexander Vinkourov, who desperately tries to put his mark on his final Tour de France. Vino already knows what it takes to cheat the sprinters and win in Paris and I’m sure he will try to repeat that this time.

Winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Juan José Haedo

Jokers: Luisle Sanchez and Alexander Vinokourov

Tour Preview - Stage 19

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Some might say that the last stage into Paris is the real parade stage in the Tour de France, but with the overall classification already set, this stage is kind of a parade too. A parade for the strong time trialists and in case you missed it, the two very best (left) in the race are also the two first riders in the GC.


Favorites:
It seems redundant to mention it, especially after the first time trial in the race, but of course Bradley Wiggins is the big favorite for this time trial. Wiggins has murdered any sign of competition in the time trials so far this year and there is absolutely nothing that points in any other direction than him doing it again this time. The biggest threat to Bradley Wiggins is his team mate Chris Froome, who would have won this Tour (easily…) hasn’t been for the time loss on the one of the first stages and his baby sitting duties in the mountains.

Personally I hope Chris Froome will win this stage and I’m sure he is eager to give a real try as well, but it won’t be easy against Wiggins. These two guys will most likely end 1st and 2nd on the stage so the rest of the peloton is actually only fighting for 3rd place - very much like in the overall classification too.

If I should mention a joker for the stage it would be Tejay Van Garderen. The young American did extremely well in the first time trial and he says he is very motivated for give it full gas this time too. TJ is 2:37 minutes after Jurgen Van den Broeck in 4th place and if he has the right day it’s not very unlikely that he can take all that time back on the Dutchman who had a very poor first time trial. “I'll empty the tank and see where I end up. I had a good one last time. Maybe I can go even better”, Tejay Van Garderen said looking ahead to the final fight against the clock.

Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins or Chris Froome
Joker: Tejay Van Garderen

Tour Preview - Stage 18

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If you can’t sprint with the best and can’t time trial either, this is your last chance to get something out of this Tour de France. I doubt Lotto-Belisol will have the manpower to keep it all together and therefore I’m pointing at breakaway to make it once again.

Favorites:

As this being the last chance for most of the riders, it’s almost impossible to predict who will end up winning the stage. Still, of course, there are some riders better at hitting the breaks than others. One of these is Michael Mørkøv. The Danish Tour de France debutant managed to get in the right break on the three first stages in a row(!) and has been extremely active in Tour so far. Mørkøv wants to get on the final podium in Paris as the most aggressive rider in the Tour and even though he already has good chance of winning that prize, Thomas Voeckler certaintly candidates for it too. The French rider has already won two stages and seems sure to win the polka dot jersey as well. If Michael Mørkøv wants to be crowned as the most aggressive rider in his debut Tour, he needs to attack again if he manages to get in the right break then his fast finish could be enough to give him that stage win he has been chasing since day one.

If it does come to a mass sprint, and I really doubt it will, it will be a fight between Peter Sagan and Andre Greipel. There is a cat4 climb, Côte de Lissac-sur-Couze (1,9km – 5,7%), with its top only 10 km from the line and that should mean some of the remaining sprinters won’t be there to give it a go in the final. The last climb is also an excellent opportunity for a rider to attack from a breakaway and if a rider like Michael Albasini or Arthur Vichot is up there this could be the place they will go solo.

Winner pick: Michael Mørkøv

Joker: Michael Albasini 

Tour Preview - Stage 17

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This is the last day in the mountains and therefore also the last chance for many riders to snatch a stage win in this year’s Tour de France. Ideally I would like to see the GC contenders fighting for the stage but if the past is any reference it most likely won’t happen. Only if Liquigas and/or Lotto-Belisol take control and start working in the peloton there may be a chance for favorites to win the stage. I think a break will make it and once again I point to a Spanish guy.

Favorites:

Juanjo Cobo surprised quite a few by winning the Vuelta España last year but unlike Chris Froome he hasn’t really kept the same level in this Tour. In the last days in mountains Cobo has been looking better and better though and I think he has his eyes on this particular stage. The Spanish riders are always extra motivated in the Pyrenees and if I’m sure Juanjo Cobo is eager to prove what happened in the Vuelta was a one-time-only. Cobo also knows this stage very well. In 2007 Stage 15 of the Tour had both Col de Menté, Port de Balès and Col de Peyresourde on the menu and back then the Spaniard took 4^th place on the stage - Alexander Vinkourov actually won the stage, but was DQ afterwards due to a positive doping test. “I have great memories from 2007 and I hope I can win this time”, Cobo said on the rest day. I think Juanjo Cobo will manage to get in the right breakaway and from there he will be very difficult to beat showing the last days condition.  

The last hard 15,5 km of the stage
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If it should come back together before the last climb I would put my money on Chris Froome. On Stage 16 on Peyresourde he once again showed how strong he is right now and according to himself he’s only getting stronger and stronger as the race progresses. It’s clear that Vincenzo Nibali and Jurgen Van den Broeck will have to try something but if Froome is as good as he has been so far I would be surprised if he goes solo on the last km and win the stage.

Winner pick: Juanjo Cobo

Joker: Chris Froome

Tour Preview - Stage 16

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We are going into the last week of this year’s Tour de France and that with four famous and feared climbs on the menu. Col d'Aubisque (Cat HC, 16,4km - 7,1%), Col du Tourmalet (Cat HC, 19km - 7,4%), Col d'Aspin (Cat 1, 12,4km - 4,8%) and Col de Peyresourde (Cat 1, 9,5km - 6,7%) show that the peloton now plays in the Pyrenees  and hopefully this stage will be everything we expect it to be!

Favorites:

I’m a fan of the favorites winning on the big mountains but since also this Tour stage ends with a descent, I’m fine with leaving the victory to the escapees. That’s how I think it will go anyway. Team Sky won’t be interesting in pulling back any breakaways with guys more than 20 minutes behind in the overall classification and for Liquigas (Nibali) and BMC (Evans) the only thing that matters is the overall win. Therefore I’m pretty sure that a strong break of 10-15 riders will get away on Col d'Aubisque (if not earlier, then at least here) so let’s try to take a look at who might be in that break.

The first two riders I thought of looking at the profile were Alejandro Valverde and Michele Scarponi. Valverde has been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway the last couple of days with climbs on the menu and he seems very determined not to leave this Tour without putting his mark on it. He’s far out of the classification (32:59 minutes after Bradley Wiggins) so I think that Team Sky finally will be okay with him getting in the break. Had Valverde still been near the podium I would probably have picked him as well. This stage is perfect for him since he can stay with the very best both on the climbs and on the descents. Plus he is very fast on the line. For me there isn’t a bigger favorite for this stage than Alejandro Valverde being at 100%.

Col de Peyresourde - 9,5km / 6,7%
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Michele Scarponi has very much the same qualities as Alejandro Valverde. He may not be as fast as Valverde in the final sprint but he is definitely not slow either. He’s a real climber and will be difficult to drop if he hits the right breakaway, plus he is good on the downhill sections as well. The main goal for Michele Scarponi will be the stage win, but with 70 KOM points to fight for he could easily try to go for the polka dot jersey as well, having already 33 points.

Other solid breakaway candidates to the win in Bagnères-de-Luchon are riders like Rein Taaramae (out of the GC and strong uphill and downhill), Dan Martin (pure climber and feeling great these days) and Rui Costa (if Valverde doesn’t hit the right break, Rui Costa is very likely to do so and he already knows how to win in the Tour).

Among the favorites Vincenzo Nibali is the best pick. The Italian is excellent on the descents where he has been trying to drop Wiggins and co. numerous times in this Tour already. If the break gets caught, I can’t see anyone other than Nibali winning this stage…

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde or Michele Scarponi

Joker: Vincenzo Nibali

Tour Preview - Stage 15

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This looks like a stage for the sprinters, but could also very easy end up with yet another breakaway staying clear of the bunch.It’s an undulating route going up and down all day long with no time to recover and being only 158,5 km I think the break will have a good chance.

Especially because GreenEdge now won’t be pulling like maniacs again since Peter Sagan now seems sure to win the green jersey. Team Sky won’t waste any energy on bringing it back together and that leaves us with Lotto-Belisol. If the break is to be caught it will be Lotto-Belisol - and them only - trying to bring back together. It would be much easier just to put a guy like Lars Bak in the break from the beginning...

Favorites:

Let’s say a break will make it (I think the chance 50/50 with a little advantage to the break) who will be in it? Almost every single team wants to put a rider up the road but of course some are better than others. One of my personal favorites to get in the break is Argos-Shimano’s Koen de Kort. Without Marcel Kittel and Tom Veelers the team doesn’t have any super fast riders for the sprints so their only chance of getting a stage win is from a breakaway. Koen de Kort has been trying many times the last couple of days and Stage 15 is actually the stage suiting him the best. If he manage to put himself in the final break Koen de Kort will also be able to take advantage of his fast finish and that gives him a pretty solid chance of winning in Pau if he arrives in the front group.

Another rider knowing how to hit the right breakaways is Luis Angel Maté. Normally Maté would have been in four or five breaks already but this is his first Tour de France and I could imagine he needed a little time to get used to it. In the beginning he also had Rein Taaramae to look after but with Taaramae out of the GC and David Moncoutié out of the race, Luis Angel Maté now has a chance to show himself off on the big scene. Look out for “El Lince Andaluz”!

If Lotto-Belisol manage to make this stage end in a mass sprint after all the natural pick would be Andre Greipel. He has already won three stages in this Tour and with Peter Sagan (probably?) being a little tired after Stage 14 and Mark Cavendish working in front of the peloton, I can’t really see who should beat him.

Winner, breakaway: Koen de Kort or Luis Angel Maté

Winner, mass sprint: Andre Greipel

Tour Preview - Stage 14

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In between two sprint stages this should be a stage for a breakaway to make it. There is a hard category2 climb, Col du Portel (5,3 km - 6,3%), starting after 22 km and we should see a break taking its final shape here. From the top there is 85 km “flat” until the real final begins with two category1 climbs right after each other.

First up is Port de Lers (11,4 km - 7%) and right after the descent it’s time for a the feared Tour debutant Mur de Péguère (9,3 km - 7,9%). The last 3,3 km of Mur de Péguère have an average percentage of over 12% with parts up to 18%! There is still about 40 km to go from the top of Mur de Péguère, so it might be a good idea not to go solo too early with 20 km flat towards the finishing line.

Favorite:

As I said I think this will be a day a breakaway will make it all the way to the line. There are 20 KOM points for the polka dot jersey on the last two climbs and I know Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get out there and see if he can get the jersey of the shoulders of his Scandinavian rival Fredrik Kessiakoff. Also Thomas Voeckler will be interested in getting in the break and see if he can get back in the fight for the jersey plus taking another stage win. Voeckler is excellent on the descents and show good condition on the uphill sections too, so he is definitely one of the main guys to look out for.

Mur de Péguère - 9,3 km - 7,9%
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On Stage 13 Luis Leon Sanchez tried to take the peloton by surprise in the last two kilometers, but in disbelieve he saw the yellow jersey Bradley Wiggins rail him back in on the very final meters. Sanchez was obvious annoyed with Wiggins in the heat of the moment but afterwards he apologized on Twitter, saying sorry to the race leader. Maybe Luis Leon Sanchez took a look in the race book and realized it might be a good idea not to make Wiggins an enemy on the road if he wants to get away in the break on Stage 14. The stage is made for Sanchez and I wouldn’t be surprised if him and Voeckler once again found each other side by side in the winning break.

Among the GC contenders it’s no secret that this is a stage where Vincenzo Nibali and Cadel Evans need to attack. Both Nibali and Evans have shown they are not afraid of attacking on the descents and if they can manage to isolate Wiggins just a little bit before that - maybe on the last steep part of Mur de Péguère - we should be in for another dramatic finish!

Winner pick: Luisle Sanchez

Joker: Vincenzo Nibali