Tour Preview - Stage 13

---

This is a stage for the sprinters. It surprises me that ASO decided to give this day to the fast guys and didn’t throw in a couple of climbs so the French riders could attack and hope for a stage win on Bastille Day - or La Fête Nationale as they call it in France. Any attacks seem doomed on this stage, but I won’t go as far as saying we will get a regular mass sprint. Because the race organizers have been a tricky after all.

Favorites:

25 km from the line the riders have to climb Mont Saint-Clair. You may not think much of this climb, being just a category 3, but trust me it’s nasty! It’s just under two kilometers long but the average percentage is 10,2% with parts up to 20% - not exactly in favor of the heavy sprinters like Haedo, Van Hummel, Hutarovich etc.

The beginning of Mont Saint-Clair. 1,6 km - 10,2 %

If the Mont Saint-Clair wasn’t tricky enough the final kilometer certainly is! With only a few hundred meters to go the peloton bends right in 180° corner just before hitting the final stretch to the line. Andre Greipel will have a hard time getting his whole Lotto-Belisol leadout train over the steep Mont Saint-Clair and it will also be difficult for them to deliver him perfectly in the end. That 180° corner means that you need to slow down a little and Greipel likes it best when he can be delivered in high speed.

Instead the finish suits Peter Sagan a lot more since he is good at accelerating from low speed plus he won’t lose any positions in the tricky bend. Sagan is also one of the sprinter that shouldn’t be in trouble on Mont Saint-Clair. Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if Liquigas decide to put pressure on the peloton to see if they drop some of the sprinters before the finish.

If you are looking for a joker, look to Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank and Danish Michael Mørkøv. This year Mørkøv has shown that he really knows how to get in the right break and you can be sure that he will try again tomorrow. Saturday it’s exactly five years ago since his father died and Michael Mørkøv has said that he wants to honor him by winning in Le Cap d'Agde. I doubt Mørkøv will be able to pull it off, but I’m sure he will manage to show himself up the roads before the finish.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Michael Mørkøv

Tour Preview - Stage 12

---

It’s going to be hard to follow up on the last days predictions, but I’ll give a try. The way I see it this is a typical breakaway stage. The two category 1 climbs in the beginning of the stage Col du Grand Cucheron and Col du Granier are both very steep (especially Granier) and that should give us a strong breakaway group to fight it out for win in Annonay Davézieux. From the top op Col du Granier there are 120 km to go so possibility of it all coming back together for a sprint in a selective group is also there - no doubts about that.

Favorites:
There is one guy you just can’t rule out in this Tour de France: Peter Sagan! Sagan has already won three stages in his Tour-debut and he has shown that he can stay with Nibali on climbs as well. On Stage 11 he was next to Nibali all the way up over Col de Madeleine and he even had enough energy to attack on the descent. If Peter Sagan manages to get into the break tomorrow he will be nearly impossible to beat. Also if Sagan is in the peloton group and the break hasn’t already got a solid lead, it’s not unlikely that Liquigas and other teams will try to bring it back together. The last kilometers are uphill with about 4% and if you can point at better rider right now for that kind of finish I’ll be impressed!

Last 5 km of the stage - perfect
for riders like Sagan & Gerrans.

Riders like Sandy Casar, Sylvain Chavanel and Simon Gerrans are also excellent picks for Stage 12 as well. Casar tried his luck the other day but couldn’t keep up with Voeckler on the climbs. This time the climbs are early on the stage which means that Sandy Casar should be able to get back in the front if he loses a little ground again. Sylvain Chavanel has been trying like a maniac to get in the early breaks the last couple of days but so far without any success in the end. Chavanel wants a stage win very badly and I think this might be his best chance in the Tour to get it.

The same goes for Simon Gerrans. The Australian Champion was with Casar and Voeckler the other day but didn’t have the legs to finish it. On Stage 11 he took it easy and “cruised” through the day in order to be ready for this stage. The uphill finish suits Simon Gerrans perfectly and if I should point on any of these three guys I think it would be him. Then again, all three riders could do it. If you are looking for a super joker, look to Vacansoleil-DCM's Marco Marcato.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan
Joker: Simon Gerrans

Tour Preview - Stage 11

---

This could very well be the Queen Stage of this year’s Tour de France. It’s only 148 km but with no less than four nasty climbs on the menu. Col de la Madeleine (Cat HC), Col de la Croix de Fer (Cat HC), Col du Mollard (Cat 2) and finally the last category 1 climb up to La Toussuire. If you aim for the polka dot jersey, this is the stage you need to be in the break. Still I have a feeling it will be one of the GC contenders who ends up winning this prestigious stage.

Favorites:

I know for a fact that especially Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get in the right break tomorrow. The Danish climber knows this is the day to be in front if his dream of the polka dot jersey should come true. Sørensen tried to save as much energy as possible on Stage 10 and we can expect him to attack right from the very bottom of Madeleine. Chris Anker Sørensen also knows what it takes to win in La Toussuire. Back in 2008 he finished an incredible solo ride in front all day by winning the stage in front of Pierrick Fedrigo and Levi Leipheimer - two riders I don’t expect much of on Stage 11 though.  Also Johnny Hoogerland will most likely try to get in the early break but I doubt the Dutchman will be flying since he still seems to be struggling to overcome his knee injury.

La Toussuire. 18 km - 6,1% average.
Click for larger image!

As stated in the beginning I think this will end up with a fight between the race’s best climbers. Team Sky never seemed to panic when Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali attacked on the downhill section, neither when Jurgen Van den Broeck and Pierre Rolland attack over the top of the last climb. Bradley Wiggins knows how strong his team is and unless Evans and Nibali try to attack from far out, I doubt they will ever manage to shake British duo Wiggins and Froome.

I think a group of 10-15 of the GC riders will arrive more or less together at the bottom of La Toussuire and then we will see who have something left in the tank. I’m convinced Lotto-Belisol will try again with Jelle Vanendert and Jurgen Van den Broeck and this time it might work out much better than on Stage 10. I also expect Pierre Rolland to keep on attacking and with the big morale boost due to Voeckler’s (predicted) stage win, Rolland could make it two in a row for Team Europcar.

Yesterday I wrote about Alejandro Valverde and today he showed that his legs are really good. As expected he managed to stay with the favorites at all time and being over 10 minutes after Wiggins in the GC, I think Alejandro Valverde will give a real try on Stage 11.

Winner pick: Pierre Rolland or Jurgen Van den Broeck

Joker: Alejandro Valverde

Tour Preview - Stage 10

---

At first this may look like a typical breakaway stage half way through the Tour de France, but after Monday’s time trial a lot of riders now need to attack Team Sky if they want to get on the podium. That means that even though a strong break might get away, it’s not very unlikely that Evans, Nibali, Van den Broeck etc. will try something on Col du Grand Colombier (Category HC, 17,4 km with 7,1%). Well, let’s hope they will!

Favorites:

Anyway. Let’s say a break makes it to the line, who would be in it? It’s not really a stage for the polka dot jersey hunters like Chris Anker Sørensen and David Moncoutie. Well you can get 20 points on Grand Colombier, but not a lot on other climbs, so it’s definitely much more clever to save some energy and give a real go on stages like tomorrow with three times as many points on the menu. Another thing against David Moncoutie is that with Remy De Gregorio out of the race, Moncoutie is now the only Cofidis rider able to stay with Rein Taaramae in the mountains. This could end his dreams for the jersey the way I see it.

Col du Grand Colombier - Top with 40 km to go.

Instead I think guys like Luis León Sanchez, Thomas Voeckler and Sandy Casar will be the main riders to watch in order to catch the right break on Stage 10. All three are some of the very best at getting in the breaks and finish it off with stage win and all three have been showing to very promising signs the last couple of days, including their time trial on Monday.

Another guy this finish is almost tailor made for is Alejandro Valverde. Tons of bad luck has sent him out of the GC fight for good and therefore he can now focus on getting a stage win. He is 10,46 minutes after Bradley Wiggins in the overall classification and even though nobody will allow him to get away with 5 minutes or so he still have very good chances the way I see it. Valverde should be strong enough to stay with the favorites on the climbs and if it comes back together he will also be the fastest on the line - no doubt about that. He could also put a team mate in the early break and then try to attack in the middle of the stage. Team Sky won’t waste any unnecessary energy on pulling back a rider 10 minutes down and with help from a team mate Alejandro Valverde could make a big number on this stage. Valverde knows he has nothing left to do in the GC so he will be almost desperate to get away with a least a stage win from this Tour.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Thomas Voeckler

Tour Preview - Stage 9 (ITT)

---

We will end the first part of the Tour de France the same way we started it; against the clock! This is not a very hilly time trial but it’s not a flat one either. There are no categorized climbs on the menu but just before the first time check it’s uphill for about 1,5 km with over 10%. This means that the first split time can cheat us a bit since most of the strong time trialists aren’t that great at changing rhythm. After time check there’s a fast, technical descent before the second split time and then there's the long stretch home. Last part of the route is slightly downhill towards the line.

Favorites:

Unless this is the first bike race you are watching within the last 5 years you shouldn’t be surprised to see Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins as the two big favorites. It should have been a three-man fight for the win, but since the last week only has been about surviving for Tony Martin after his crash, I doubt that he will be ready to challenge Cancellara and Wiggins.

Bradley Wiggins says it’s a very technical course and I that means it should suit both him and Cancellara very well. Before the Tour started Cancellara said he wanted to ride only focusing on getting ready for the Olympic Time Trial 3½ weeks ahead.  Thing is that he won the prologue and has been working hard every since to honor the yellow jersey - even on the nasty finish in La Planche des Belles Filles. If Fabian Cancellara had been saving some energy the last week I would have put him down as my winner pick, but to be honest I think Bradley Wiggins is the better choice.

Wiggins knows that this is his first big chance to take a lot (!) of time on his main rivals for the overall victory and he showed in Dauphiné that he’s on the very top of his game right now. In Dauphiné he almost caught Cadel Evans, starting two minutes ahead of him, and even though I don’t think it will happen this time, I’m sure that Wiggins will take at least one minute on Evans in Besançon.

Another important rider when we talk the overall classification is Bradley Wiggin’s team mate Chris Froome. In the Vuelta España last year Froome actually beat Wiggins on the long time trial in Salamanca by 23 seconds (and Fabian Cancellara too by 28 seconds) so he sure knows how to ride a good time trial against the elite. Chris Froome has also been picked for the British Olympic team for the time trial (44 km) and this is a great way to show that he is ready for that too. I won’t go as far as saying that Froome will win this stage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the last spot on the podium after Wiggins and Cancellara.

Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins

Top3 pick: Chris Froome 

Tour Preview - Stage 8

---

Any riders aiming at the polka dot jersey will have this stage red-circled in their calendar. With 7 categorized climbs on the menu, this is the day you need to hit the right break and collect points. I can’t see any team take control keep it together so let’s have a look at some of the riders able to make the final breakaway.

Favorites:

First name I thought of when I saw this stage profile earlier this was Sylvain Chavanel. This is a typical Chavanel stage and with the shape he has shown so far this season, he is surely one of the big favorites! Sylvain Chavanel came to the Tour stating that he wanted to animate the race again and take the yellow jersey at some point during the race. He tried hard on the first stages but Fabian Cancellara didn’t let it happen. Now the yellow jersey is property of Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins and I doubt they want to spend (waste) the same amount of energy in keeping the jersey this early in the race. Chavanel seems to be in something like the shape of his life and I’m sure he will try to get away and try to take it all in Porrentruy; stage win and yellow jersey. Only thing pointing against it is that Sylvain Chavanel still is fairly close in the GC. After Stage 7 he said that he now wants to keep his place high in the overall standings and with a time trial coming up on Monday he may think it would be wasting powers working in front all day on Sunday.

As said this is a stage for the riders chasing the polka dot jersey and because of that we can’t let out Johnny Hoogerland. His big goal in this Tour is to take revenge and get the jersey and being almost half an hour after Wiggins in the overall classification he’s absolutely no threat what so ever. Hoogerland showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he has taken his climbing to the next level and he needs that on the last three climbs of the stage all with average percentages of 8-9%. Vacansoleil-DCM have a lot of riders who could do well on this stage (especially Rafa Valls and Marco Marcato) but I think Hoogerland will be the most motivated, knowing there are 38 points up for grab in the fight for the polka dot jersey.

Last climb. Top is 15km from the line.

Normally I would have picked out Michael Albasini as an excellent choice for a stage winner but after his effort on Stage 7 I think it’s time for Simon Gerrans to show the GreenEDGE colors. Gerrans had an outstanding start of the season winning Tour Down Under and Milano-San Remo and wanted to do well on Stage 3 but ended up in the side of the road before the race went into its final part. Without a real GC-contender GreenEDGE have giving Albasini, Gerrans and Weening green light to try their own luck in the breakaways and this being a perfect stage for a break to make it, I think Gerrans will be eager to show off his Australian Champion jersey in front of the Tour de France.

I could keep on naming typical breakaway riders like Sandy Casar, Alexander Vinkourov, Thomas Voeckler etc. etc., but that would take all evening. That being said, those three are also excellent picks for a winner in Porrentruy Sunday afternoon!

After Stage 7 Bjarne Riis didn’t hide Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s ambitions for this stage when asked about the tactic: “If they [the peloton] let him go I think we will see Chris [Anker Sørensen] in front again tomorrow”. It’s no secret that Sørensen wants the polka dot jersey but I honestly can’t see him win a sprint in a small group. If Chris Anker Sørensen is going to win Stage 8 it has to be solo, attacking on the last steep climb with its top 15 km from the line.

As you can see it’s almost impossible picking only one rider for a stage like this, but I think I’ll try with the Australian Champion. Second pick will be French.

Winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Joker: Sandy Casar

Tour Preview - Stage 7

---

Finally. After a week of sprinting it's time to test the climbing legs. Despite it being the first mountain stage of the Tour it's only categorized as a "hilly" stage, but don't be fooled. It's true there is only one steep climb on the menu, but that is also a very nasty one!

The 5,9 km up to La Planche des Belles Filles have an average of 8,5% with ramps of 11%, 13% and over 20% on the last steep part towards the finishing line. It's a tiny road with the cold mountain wall on one side and trees on the other and without many turns the riders constantly will be able to see each other up the road. Just when you think you've reached the top of the climb and it's flat for about 100 meters you turn right up in the sky hitting the steepest part of the climb with percentages up to 22%. The last 50 meters or so are flat. Not that it will change anything though.

Favorites:

The way I see it there are two scenarios:

1) A break of 6-10 riders gets a good gap and they end up fighting for the stage win while the favorites only focus on each other minutes behind.

2) A break gets away but teams like FDJ (Pinot), Lampre (Scarponi) & Cofidis (Moncoutie/Taaramae) aren't represented up front and start to chase in order to have a crack at in the final. Also Rabobank (Gesink, Mollema & Kruijswijk) could easily take responsibility and chase the break. All ending up with the favorites fighting it out for the stage win and the yellow jersey.

Personally I think the scenario #1 is most likely to happen. Everybody knows that the winner on La Planche des Belles Filles (almost certainly) will take the polka dot jersey (2x10 points) and because of that, we should see guys like Chris Anker Sørensen (+5 min), Johnny Hoogerland (+14 min), Daniel Martin (+19 min), Matt Lloyd (+20 min) & David Moncoutie (+20 min) try their luck. All 5 have said they are aiming for the polka dot jersey and this stage is definitely one they have red-circled from the beginning. Let's hope neither of them get too banged up on yesterday's carnage stage.

After Stage 5 Bjarne Riis said that the man for the weekend is Chris Anker Sørensen and knowing how much the Danish climber wants to show himself and get in the fight for jersey, I will be surprised not to see him up front if a good break gets away. Also David Moncoutie will be eager to get in the break. The final climb is quite similar to Mont Faron - one of Moncoutie's favorite climbs - and the steep parts really suit the French veteran. The weather forecast shows sunny conditions and that is very good news for David Moncoutie who likes it hot and dry.

Steep parts of 13% towards the line.

I mentioned FDJ and Pinot before and that's for a reason. Thibaut Pinot lives nearby and know the way up to La Planche des Belles Filles very well. He has been training a lot on it this year already and said that it is his big dream to win on this climb. 

Looking at the GC favorites this is truly a climb that favors the pure climbers. The ramps of 11%, 13% and 20% comes and go meaning that you constantly have to change the rhythm. Not exactly Bradley Wiggins' cup of tea. For Wiggins it's all about minimizing the gaps and make sure Team Sky set a pace so high no one is able to attack.


Before yesterday's stage I would picked Wout Poels and Pierre Rolland  as solid candidates for the win, but after Poels crashed and withdrew and Rolland crashed and hurt his shoulder and his back, I think I better drop those two again. Still if Rolland is ready, he could really take revenge on this steep climb!

Winner pick: David Moncoutie from a break or Pierre Rolland among the GC riders if he's ready again.

Joker: Thibaut Pinot


For pictures of the final climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles click her!