Tour Preview - Stage 10

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At first this may look like a typical breakaway stage half way through the Tour de France, but after Monday’s time trial a lot of riders now need to attack Team Sky if they want to get on the podium. That means that even though a strong break might get away, it’s not very unlikely that Evans, Nibali, Van den Broeck etc. will try something on Col du Grand Colombier (Category HC, 17,4 km with 7,1%). Well, let’s hope they will!

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Anyway. Let’s say a break makes it to the line, who would be in it? It’s not really a stage for the polka dot jersey hunters like Chris Anker Sørensen and David Moncoutie. Well you can get 20 points on Grand Colombier, but not a lot on other climbs, so it’s definitely much more clever to save some energy and give a real go on stages like tomorrow with three times as many points on the menu. Another thing against David Moncoutie is that with Remy De Gregorio out of the race, Moncoutie is now the only Cofidis rider able to stay with Rein Taaramae in the mountains. This could end his dreams for the jersey the way I see it.

Col du Grand Colombier - Top with 40 km to go.

Instead I think guys like Luis León Sanchez, Thomas Voeckler and Sandy Casar will be the main riders to watch in order to catch the right break on Stage 10. All three are some of the very best at getting in the breaks and finish it off with stage win and all three have been showing to very promising signs the last couple of days, including their time trial on Monday.

Another guy this finish is almost tailor made for is Alejandro Valverde. Tons of bad luck has sent him out of the GC fight for good and therefore he can now focus on getting a stage win. He is 10,46 minutes after Bradley Wiggins in the overall classification and even though nobody will allow him to get away with 5 minutes or so he still have very good chances the way I see it. Valverde should be strong enough to stay with the favorites on the climbs and if it comes back together he will also be the fastest on the line - no doubt about that. He could also put a team mate in the early break and then try to attack in the middle of the stage. Team Sky won’t waste any unnecessary energy on pulling back a rider 10 minutes down and with help from a team mate Alejandro Valverde could make a big number on this stage. Valverde knows he has nothing left to do in the GC so he will be almost desperate to get away with a least a stage win from this Tour.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Thomas Voeckler

Tour Preview - Stage 9 (ITT)

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We will end the first part of the Tour de France the same way we started it; against the clock! This is not a very hilly time trial but it’s not a flat one either. There are no categorized climbs on the menu but just before the first time check it’s uphill for about 1,5 km with over 10%. This means that the first split time can cheat us a bit since most of the strong time trialists aren’t that great at changing rhythm. After time check there’s a fast, technical descent before the second split time and then there's the long stretch home. Last part of the route is slightly downhill towards the line.

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Unless this is the first bike race you are watching within the last 5 years you shouldn’t be surprised to see Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins as the two big favorites. It should have been a three-man fight for the win, but since the last week only has been about surviving for Tony Martin after his crash, I doubt that he will be ready to challenge Cancellara and Wiggins.

Bradley Wiggins says it’s a very technical course and I that means it should suit both him and Cancellara very well. Before the Tour started Cancellara said he wanted to ride only focusing on getting ready for the Olympic Time Trial 3½ weeks ahead.  Thing is that he won the prologue and has been working hard every since to honor the yellow jersey - even on the nasty finish in La Planche des Belles Filles. If Fabian Cancellara had been saving some energy the last week I would have put him down as my winner pick, but to be honest I think Bradley Wiggins is the better choice.

Wiggins knows that this is his first big chance to take a lot (!) of time on his main rivals for the overall victory and he showed in Dauphiné that he’s on the very top of his game right now. In Dauphiné he almost caught Cadel Evans, starting two minutes ahead of him, and even though I don’t think it will happen this time, I’m sure that Wiggins will take at least one minute on Evans in Besançon.

Another important rider when we talk the overall classification is Bradley Wiggin’s team mate Chris Froome. In the Vuelta España last year Froome actually beat Wiggins on the long time trial in Salamanca by 23 seconds (and Fabian Cancellara too by 28 seconds) so he sure knows how to ride a good time trial against the elite. Chris Froome has also been picked for the British Olympic team for the time trial (44 km) and this is a great way to show that he is ready for that too. I won’t go as far as saying that Froome will win this stage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the last spot on the podium after Wiggins and Cancellara.

Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins

Top3 pick: Chris Froome 

Tour Preview - Stage 8

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Any riders aiming at the polka dot jersey will have this stage red-circled in their calendar. With 7 categorized climbs on the menu, this is the day you need to hit the right break and collect points. I can’t see any team take control keep it together so let’s have a look at some of the riders able to make the final breakaway.

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First name I thought of when I saw this stage profile earlier this was Sylvain Chavanel. This is a typical Chavanel stage and with the shape he has shown so far this season, he is surely one of the big favorites! Sylvain Chavanel came to the Tour stating that he wanted to animate the race again and take the yellow jersey at some point during the race. He tried hard on the first stages but Fabian Cancellara didn’t let it happen. Now the yellow jersey is property of Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins and I doubt they want to spend (waste) the same amount of energy in keeping the jersey this early in the race. Chavanel seems to be in something like the shape of his life and I’m sure he will try to get away and try to take it all in Porrentruy; stage win and yellow jersey. Only thing pointing against it is that Sylvain Chavanel still is fairly close in the GC. After Stage 7 he said that he now wants to keep his place high in the overall standings and with a time trial coming up on Monday he may think it would be wasting powers working in front all day on Sunday.

As said this is a stage for the riders chasing the polka dot jersey and because of that we can’t let out Johnny Hoogerland. His big goal in this Tour is to take revenge and get the jersey and being almost half an hour after Wiggins in the overall classification he’s absolutely no threat what so ever. Hoogerland showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he has taken his climbing to the next level and he needs that on the last three climbs of the stage all with average percentages of 8-9%. Vacansoleil-DCM have a lot of riders who could do well on this stage (especially Rafa Valls and Marco Marcato) but I think Hoogerland will be the most motivated, knowing there are 38 points up for grab in the fight for the polka dot jersey.

Last climb. Top is 15km from the line.

Normally I would have picked out Michael Albasini as an excellent choice for a stage winner but after his effort on Stage 7 I think it’s time for Simon Gerrans to show the GreenEDGE colors. Gerrans had an outstanding start of the season winning Tour Down Under and Milano-San Remo and wanted to do well on Stage 3 but ended up in the side of the road before the race went into its final part. Without a real GC-contender GreenEDGE have giving Albasini, Gerrans and Weening green light to try their own luck in the breakaways and this being a perfect stage for a break to make it, I think Gerrans will be eager to show off his Australian Champion jersey in front of the Tour de France.

I could keep on naming typical breakaway riders like Sandy Casar, Alexander Vinkourov, Thomas Voeckler etc. etc., but that would take all evening. That being said, those three are also excellent picks for a winner in Porrentruy Sunday afternoon!

After Stage 7 Bjarne Riis didn’t hide Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s ambitions for this stage when asked about the tactic: “If they [the peloton] let him go I think we will see Chris [Anker Sørensen] in front again tomorrow”. It’s no secret that Sørensen wants the polka dot jersey but I honestly can’t see him win a sprint in a small group. If Chris Anker Sørensen is going to win Stage 8 it has to be solo, attacking on the last steep climb with its top 15 km from the line.

As you can see it’s almost impossible picking only one rider for a stage like this, but I think I’ll try with the Australian Champion. Second pick will be French.

Winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Joker: Sandy Casar

Tour Preview - Stage 7

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Finally. After a week of sprinting it's time to test the climbing legs. Despite it being the first mountain stage of the Tour it's only categorized as a "hilly" stage, but don't be fooled. It's true there is only one steep climb on the menu, but that is also a very nasty one!

The 5,9 km up to La Planche des Belles Filles have an average of 8,5% with ramps of 11%, 13% and over 20% on the last steep part towards the finishing line. It's a tiny road with the cold mountain wall on one side and trees on the other and without many turns the riders constantly will be able to see each other up the road. Just when you think you've reached the top of the climb and it's flat for about 100 meters you turn right up in the sky hitting the steepest part of the climb with percentages up to 22%. The last 50 meters or so are flat. Not that it will change anything though.

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The way I see it there are two scenarios:

1) A break of 6-10 riders gets a good gap and they end up fighting for the stage win while the favorites only focus on each other minutes behind.

2) A break gets away but teams like FDJ (Pinot), Lampre (Scarponi) & Cofidis (Moncoutie/Taaramae) aren't represented up front and start to chase in order to have a crack at in the final. Also Rabobank (Gesink, Mollema & Kruijswijk) could easily take responsibility and chase the break. All ending up with the favorites fighting it out for the stage win and the yellow jersey.

Personally I think the scenario #1 is most likely to happen. Everybody knows that the winner on La Planche des Belles Filles (almost certainly) will take the polka dot jersey (2x10 points) and because of that, we should see guys like Chris Anker Sørensen (+5 min), Johnny Hoogerland (+14 min), Daniel Martin (+19 min), Matt Lloyd (+20 min) & David Moncoutie (+20 min) try their luck. All 5 have said they are aiming for the polka dot jersey and this stage is definitely one they have red-circled from the beginning. Let's hope neither of them get too banged up on yesterday's carnage stage.

After Stage 5 Bjarne Riis said that the man for the weekend is Chris Anker Sørensen and knowing how much the Danish climber wants to show himself and get in the fight for jersey, I will be surprised not to see him up front if a good break gets away. Also David Moncoutie will be eager to get in the break. The final climb is quite similar to Mont Faron - one of Moncoutie's favorite climbs - and the steep parts really suit the French veteran. The weather forecast shows sunny conditions and that is very good news for David Moncoutie who likes it hot and dry.

Steep parts of 13% towards the line.

I mentioned FDJ and Pinot before and that's for a reason. Thibaut Pinot lives nearby and know the way up to La Planche des Belles Filles very well. He has been training a lot on it this year already and said that it is his big dream to win on this climb. 

Looking at the GC favorites this is truly a climb that favors the pure climbers. The ramps of 11%, 13% and 20% comes and go meaning that you constantly have to change the rhythm. Not exactly Bradley Wiggins' cup of tea. For Wiggins it's all about minimizing the gaps and make sure Team Sky set a pace so high no one is able to attack.


Before yesterday's stage I would picked Wout Poels and Pierre Rolland  as solid candidates for the win, but after Poels crashed and withdrew and Rolland crashed and hurt his shoulder and his back, I think I better drop those two again. Still if Rolland is ready, he could really take revenge on this steep climb!

Winner pick: David Moncoutie from a break or Pierre Rolland among the GC riders if he's ready again.

Joker: Thibaut Pinot


For pictures of the final climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles click her!

Tour Preview - Stage 6

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Another sprint stage and another win for Andre Greipel. Just like it was supposed to be. That’s 5 out of 6 correct winner picks. Let’s hope it can continue for a while. The question is now if Greipel can make a Tour de France hat-trick on Stage 6. Looking at the profile there is no doubts it will turn into another bunch sprint and once again the race organizers have put in a very tricky finish!

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The last 950 meters are all flat out to the finish line so if Lotto-Belisol manage to time like they have done in the past three sprints it should be another for Andre Greipel. However I think Mark Cavendish will be extremely motivated to take revenge. On Stage 4 he got sidelined in the sprint by the crash and on Stage 5 he made a mistake of losing a few positions in the final and was unable to overcome Greipel on the uphill finish.

The Lotto-Belisol train has been perfect so far, but they need to be very alert in the final on Stage 6. Just before the 2K mark there’s a 180° corner in the big roundabout from Rue du 20. Corps American going to Rue de l’Argonne and after that yet another roundabout with 1500 meters to go. The most tricky part of the finish has still to come though. The “Last Kilometer Gate” is placed just before the viaduct under the railroad and right after that the road turns left in a 90° corner.  Luckily the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Metz by then, but if not the riders have to be extremely careful coming through that viaduct and turning left.

Thinking about the last days it seems almost impossible we shouldn’t see any crashes in the finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two riders go down in that last tricky corner.

The viaduct just before turning left in a 90° corner. 1 km to go.

Lotto-Belisol with Andre Greipel is of course the team and man to beat, but don’t forget that Mark Cavendish is always best when he has some rage inside of him. I think the World Champion will be those few extra percentages more eager to win and that could be very well be just enough.

With three sprint stages behind us already it’s not very difficult to say who’s going to be in the mix. Alessandro Petacchi took 2^nd place on Stage 4 and if he manages to place himself near the front and doesn’t lose any positions in the last corner this finish could be very suitable for strong Italian to take another podium place.

Winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Alessandro Petacchi

Tour Preview - Stage 5

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First of all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it will be another bunch sprint.

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It would be easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the profile and the last kilometers of the stage.

Without a single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it. Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we are in for another dramatic day.

The last kilometers are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after 500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8 October.  On the profile it shows that the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before 700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish line on Boulevard Gambetta.

As of tonight (4^th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the  last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on the wet roads.

If you are looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter  for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a 4^th and 3^rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel

Top3 pick: Tom Veelers 

Tour Preview - Stage 4

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If the outcome of Tuesday’s stage seemed familiar to you, it might as well happen again on Stage 4. After an uphill ‘Tourminator’ sprint, it’s now time for a regular bunch sprint. The route goes alongside the sea and with rain and cross wind on the menu it could very well be another dramatic stage. Everybody wants to be in the front - both GC-riders and sprinters - so there won’t be any time to relax during the 214,5 km towards Rouen.

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With Marcel Kittel out of the picture (he might be back later in the Tour, but not already) it’s up to Lotto and GreenEdge to take control. One could argue that Team Sky should take part as well, but with all focus on Bradley Wiggins and Konstantin Sioutsou already out of the race with a broken leg, they can’t really spare any riders at this point. Of course if the cross wind becomes a factor it’s another story. But then they will be pulling for Wiggins, not for Cavendish. He is, once again, on his own.

When Mark Cavendish won in Tournai he used first Oscar Freire and then the GreenEdge leadout train to get him back to the front after finding himself down in 25^th position with less than a kilometer to go. I think the other teams will be more focused on not letting Cavendish reenter in the mix if he isn’t up there already and I expect Lotto to charge again. They have proven to have the strongest leadout train and with Sieberg, Roelandts and Henderson as the three last riders before Greipel they will be very, very difficult to overtake.

About 12 km from the finishing line the road kicks up for a few kilometers, but except from the very first part it shouldn’t have much influence on the outcome. On the top there is a long stretch of false flat before the riders slightly turn left and starts the real part of the descent. It’s a big road with only one or two corners before entering Rouen, so be ready for a super fast finish. Just before the last kilometer the riders turn right on a bridge crossing the Seine river - the ‘Last Kilometer Gate’ is actually placed on the bridge - and right after crossing the river there is a tricky left hand turn with about 700 meters to go.

It’s slight downhill the all the way to the line and if Lotto once again have timed it, Andre Greipel should be able to pull it off this time. As said it’s a super fast finish and those kind of run-ins actually suit Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s Juan José Haedo pretty well. If the Polka Dot beast Michael Mørkøv  and Tour-debutant Jonathan Cantwell can get Haedo placed around Greipel’s wheel he should be able to take advantage of his very high top speed.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel 

Top3 pick: Juan José Haedo