Tour Preview - Stage 8

---

Any riders aiming at the polka dot jersey will have this stage red-circled in their calendar. With 7 categorized climbs on the menu, this is the day you need to hit the right break and collect points. I can’t see any team take control keep it together so let’s have a look at some of the riders able to make the final breakaway.

Favorites:

First name I thought of when I saw this stage profile earlier this was Sylvain Chavanel. This is a typical Chavanel stage and with the shape he has shown so far this season, he is surely one of the big favorites! Sylvain Chavanel came to the Tour stating that he wanted to animate the race again and take the yellow jersey at some point during the race. He tried hard on the first stages but Fabian Cancellara didn’t let it happen. Now the yellow jersey is property of Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins and I doubt they want to spend (waste) the same amount of energy in keeping the jersey this early in the race. Chavanel seems to be in something like the shape of his life and I’m sure he will try to get away and try to take it all in Porrentruy; stage win and yellow jersey. Only thing pointing against it is that Sylvain Chavanel still is fairly close in the GC. After Stage 7 he said that he now wants to keep his place high in the overall standings and with a time trial coming up on Monday he may think it would be wasting powers working in front all day on Sunday.

As said this is a stage for the riders chasing the polka dot jersey and because of that we can’t let out Johnny Hoogerland. His big goal in this Tour is to take revenge and get the jersey and being almost half an hour after Wiggins in the overall classification he’s absolutely no threat what so ever. Hoogerland showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he has taken his climbing to the next level and he needs that on the last three climbs of the stage all with average percentages of 8-9%. Vacansoleil-DCM have a lot of riders who could do well on this stage (especially Rafa Valls and Marco Marcato) but I think Hoogerland will be the most motivated, knowing there are 38 points up for grab in the fight for the polka dot jersey.

Last climb. Top is 15km from the line.

Normally I would have picked out Michael Albasini as an excellent choice for a stage winner but after his effort on Stage 7 I think it’s time for Simon Gerrans to show the GreenEDGE colors. Gerrans had an outstanding start of the season winning Tour Down Under and Milano-San Remo and wanted to do well on Stage 3 but ended up in the side of the road before the race went into its final part. Without a real GC-contender GreenEDGE have giving Albasini, Gerrans and Weening green light to try their own luck in the breakaways and this being a perfect stage for a break to make it, I think Gerrans will be eager to show off his Australian Champion jersey in front of the Tour de France.

I could keep on naming typical breakaway riders like Sandy Casar, Alexander Vinkourov, Thomas Voeckler etc. etc., but that would take all evening. That being said, those three are also excellent picks for a winner in Porrentruy Sunday afternoon!

After Stage 7 Bjarne Riis didn’t hide Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s ambitions for this stage when asked about the tactic: “If they [the peloton] let him go I think we will see Chris [Anker Sørensen] in front again tomorrow”. It’s no secret that Sørensen wants the polka dot jersey but I honestly can’t see him win a sprint in a small group. If Chris Anker Sørensen is going to win Stage 8 it has to be solo, attacking on the last steep climb with its top 15 km from the line.

As you can see it’s almost impossible picking only one rider for a stage like this, but I think I’ll try with the Australian Champion. Second pick will be French.

Winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Joker: Sandy Casar

Tour Preview - Stage 7

---

Finally. After a week of sprinting it's time to test the climbing legs. Despite it being the first mountain stage of the Tour it's only categorized as a "hilly" stage, but don't be fooled. It's true there is only one steep climb on the menu, but that is also a very nasty one!

The 5,9 km up to La Planche des Belles Filles have an average of 8,5% with ramps of 11%, 13% and over 20% on the last steep part towards the finishing line. It's a tiny road with the cold mountain wall on one side and trees on the other and without many turns the riders constantly will be able to see each other up the road. Just when you think you've reached the top of the climb and it's flat for about 100 meters you turn right up in the sky hitting the steepest part of the climb with percentages up to 22%. The last 50 meters or so are flat. Not that it will change anything though.

Favorites:

The way I see it there are two scenarios:

1) A break of 6-10 riders gets a good gap and they end up fighting for the stage win while the favorites only focus on each other minutes behind.

2) A break gets away but teams like FDJ (Pinot), Lampre (Scarponi) & Cofidis (Moncoutie/Taaramae) aren't represented up front and start to chase in order to have a crack at in the final. Also Rabobank (Gesink, Mollema & Kruijswijk) could easily take responsibility and chase the break. All ending up with the favorites fighting it out for the stage win and the yellow jersey.

Personally I think the scenario #1 is most likely to happen. Everybody knows that the winner on La Planche des Belles Filles (almost certainly) will take the polka dot jersey (2x10 points) and because of that, we should see guys like Chris Anker Sørensen (+5 min), Johnny Hoogerland (+14 min), Daniel Martin (+19 min), Matt Lloyd (+20 min) & David Moncoutie (+20 min) try their luck. All 5 have said they are aiming for the polka dot jersey and this stage is definitely one they have red-circled from the beginning. Let's hope neither of them get too banged up on yesterday's carnage stage.

After Stage 5 Bjarne Riis said that the man for the weekend is Chris Anker Sørensen and knowing how much the Danish climber wants to show himself and get in the fight for jersey, I will be surprised not to see him up front if a good break gets away. Also David Moncoutie will be eager to get in the break. The final climb is quite similar to Mont Faron - one of Moncoutie's favorite climbs - and the steep parts really suit the French veteran. The weather forecast shows sunny conditions and that is very good news for David Moncoutie who likes it hot and dry.

Steep parts of 13% towards the line.

I mentioned FDJ and Pinot before and that's for a reason. Thibaut Pinot lives nearby and know the way up to La Planche des Belles Filles very well. He has been training a lot on it this year already and said that it is his big dream to win on this climb. 

Looking at the GC favorites this is truly a climb that favors the pure climbers. The ramps of 11%, 13% and 20% comes and go meaning that you constantly have to change the rhythm. Not exactly Bradley Wiggins' cup of tea. For Wiggins it's all about minimizing the gaps and make sure Team Sky set a pace so high no one is able to attack.


Before yesterday's stage I would picked Wout Poels and Pierre Rolland  as solid candidates for the win, but after Poels crashed and withdrew and Rolland crashed and hurt his shoulder and his back, I think I better drop those two again. Still if Rolland is ready, he could really take revenge on this steep climb!

Winner pick: David Moncoutie from a break or Pierre Rolland among the GC riders if he's ready again.

Joker: Thibaut Pinot


For pictures of the final climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles click her!

Tour Preview - Stage 6

---

Another sprint stage and another win for Andre Greipel. Just like it was supposed to be. That’s 5 out of 6 correct winner picks. Let’s hope it can continue for a while. The question is now if Greipel can make a Tour de France hat-trick on Stage 6. Looking at the profile there is no doubts it will turn into another bunch sprint and once again the race organizers have put in a very tricky finish!

Favorites:

The last 950 meters are all flat out to the finish line so if Lotto-Belisol manage to time like they have done in the past three sprints it should be another for Andre Greipel. However I think Mark Cavendish will be extremely motivated to take revenge. On Stage 4 he got sidelined in the sprint by the crash and on Stage 5 he made a mistake of losing a few positions in the final and was unable to overcome Greipel on the uphill finish.

The Lotto-Belisol train has been perfect so far, but they need to be very alert in the final on Stage 6. Just before the 2K mark there’s a 180° corner in the big roundabout from Rue du 20. Corps American going to Rue de l’Argonne and after that yet another roundabout with 1500 meters to go. The most tricky part of the finish has still to come though. The “Last Kilometer Gate” is placed just before the viaduct under the railroad and right after that the road turns left in a 90° corner.  Luckily the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Metz by then, but if not the riders have to be extremely careful coming through that viaduct and turning left.

Thinking about the last days it seems almost impossible we shouldn’t see any crashes in the finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two riders go down in that last tricky corner.

The viaduct just before turning left in a 90° corner. 1 km to go.

Lotto-Belisol with Andre Greipel is of course the team and man to beat, but don’t forget that Mark Cavendish is always best when he has some rage inside of him. I think the World Champion will be those few extra percentages more eager to win and that could be very well be just enough.

With three sprint stages behind us already it’s not very difficult to say who’s going to be in the mix. Alessandro Petacchi took 2^nd place on Stage 4 and if he manages to place himself near the front and doesn’t lose any positions in the last corner this finish could be very suitable for strong Italian to take another podium place.

Winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Alessandro Petacchi

Tour Preview - Stage 5

---

First of all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it will be another bunch sprint.

Favorites:

It would be easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the profile and the last kilometers of the stage.

Without a single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it. Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we are in for another dramatic day.

The last kilometers are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after 500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8 October.  On the profile it shows that the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before 700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish line on Boulevard Gambetta.

As of tonight (4^th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the  last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on the wet roads.

If you are looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter  for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a 4^th and 3^rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel

Top3 pick: Tom Veelers 

Tour Preview - Stage 4

---

If the outcome of Tuesday’s stage seemed familiar to you, it might as well happen again on Stage 4. After an uphill ‘Tourminator’ sprint, it’s now time for a regular bunch sprint. The route goes alongside the sea and with rain and cross wind on the menu it could very well be another dramatic stage. Everybody wants to be in the front - both GC-riders and sprinters - so there won’t be any time to relax during the 214,5 km towards Rouen.

Favorites:

With Marcel Kittel out of the picture (he might be back later in the Tour, but not already) it’s up to Lotto and GreenEdge to take control. One could argue that Team Sky should take part as well, but with all focus on Bradley Wiggins and Konstantin Sioutsou already out of the race with a broken leg, they can’t really spare any riders at this point. Of course if the cross wind becomes a factor it’s another story. But then they will be pulling for Wiggins, not for Cavendish. He is, once again, on his own.

When Mark Cavendish won in Tournai he used first Oscar Freire and then the GreenEdge leadout train to get him back to the front after finding himself down in 25^th position with less than a kilometer to go. I think the other teams will be more focused on not letting Cavendish reenter in the mix if he isn’t up there already and I expect Lotto to charge again. They have proven to have the strongest leadout train and with Sieberg, Roelandts and Henderson as the three last riders before Greipel they will be very, very difficult to overtake.

About 12 km from the finishing line the road kicks up for a few kilometers, but except from the very first part it shouldn’t have much influence on the outcome. On the top there is a long stretch of false flat before the riders slightly turn left and starts the real part of the descent. It’s a big road with only one or two corners before entering Rouen, so be ready for a super fast finish. Just before the last kilometer the riders turn right on a bridge crossing the Seine river - the ‘Last Kilometer Gate’ is actually placed on the bridge - and right after crossing the river there is a tricky left hand turn with about 700 meters to go.

It’s slight downhill the all the way to the line and if Lotto once again have timed it, Andre Greipel should be able to pull it off this time. As said it’s a super fast finish and those kind of run-ins actually suit Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s Juan José Haedo pretty well. If the Polka Dot beast Michael Mørkøv  and Tour-debutant Jonathan Cantwell can get Haedo placed around Greipel’s wheel he should be able to take advantage of his very high top speed.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel 

Top3 pick: Juan José Haedo

Tour Preview - Stage 3

---

We are already at day four in the Tour de France and just like Stage 1 this one has Peter Sagan written all over it! The last 35 km shows no less than five categorized climbs. Short one between 1 and 1½ km but all around 6-9% average. It looks like a real Ardennes classic and with the last 700 meters kicking up with 7,4% it’s tailor made for the puncheurs!

Favorites:

Not only is the last 700 meters towards the finishing line favoring Peter Sagan because it’s uphill but also because the last 150 meters are very tricky! After 500-600 meters uphill the road turns left just to turn right the very next moment in a roundabout before crossing the line. Sagan has shown numerous times how exceptional his bike handling skills are and the finish could be a little bit like the one in Tour de Suisse where he managed to overcome Ben Swift on the final meters despite a tricky double corner section just before the line.

Last year people seemed sure that Philippe Gilbert would win on Mûr-de-Bretagne after his outstanding victory on the first stage, but Gilbert couldn’t repeat it. Some might think that it will be the same with Sagan, but that’s not the case. While Gilbert is a one-day-race specialist, Peter Sagan knows how to win day after day in a stage race. In Tour of California he won five stages out of eight and in Tour de Suisse he won four out of nine. Sagan has already pointed out Stage 3 as a good chance for him to take his second stage win in the Tour and if Liquigas can managed to keep it together he will be very difficult to beat. Very difficult!

Last 700 meters of the stage kicks up with 7,4 % average. 

Alejandro Valverde did an outstanding job on Stage 1 when he managed to get back to the peloton after nearly crashing just a few kilometers before the final climb. Needless to say he started the climb in the back of the pack, but he still managed to get near the front and if it hasn’t been for Gesink sprinting close to the barrier in the final, Valverde could very well have taking 4^th place behind the leading trio. I doubt Alejandro Valverde will win Tuesday’s stage but I’m sure he will be in the mix - probably top3.


Fabian Cancellara said that he would try to attack again if he saw an opening, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went away just over the top of the last cat3 climb. The downhill section is very tricky and despite what the profile shows it's actually downhill almost all the way towards the final 700 meters. 

If you are looking for a joker, look to Robert Kiserlovski. The Astana rider is always rock solid and good on these kind of hills. His main job is to make sure Janez Brajkovic stays near the front, but if he sees his chance he won’t hesitate to take it. Team mate Alexander Vinokourov is also a man for this type of finishes and he is ready again he could be a serious outsider in Boulogne-Sur-Mer.

My pick: Peter Sagan to win Stage 4

Joker: Robert Kiserlovski

Tour Preview - Stage 2

---

Despite two interesting stages with a lot of drama we haven’t really seen anything we didn’t expect. Fabian Cancellara won the prologue like he was supposed to and Peter Sagan did the same in his very first Tour de France - giving a special bike for Stage 2 with “Tourminator” written on the frame. I don’t think much will happen on this stage and anything but a bunch sprint will be a massive surprise, the way I see it.

Favorites:

The good thing is that for once we have a lot of fast guys who can actually win the stage. It’s not just Mark Cavendish anymore. Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel and of course Sagan the Tourminator will all have a crack at it. In the past Cavendish’ team has been taking responsibility early on, starting to bring back the break away, but that won’t happen this year. It’s all for Bradley Wiggins now and therefore it’s up to the other teams to take control. One of those teams are Argos-Shimano, team of the German sprinter Marcel Kittel and despite this being their first Tour de France, Argos-Shimano are to take responsibility. “We know we have one of best sprinters in the race, so we owe to act accordingly”. An impressive statement from a Wild Card team!

The final kilometers towards the finish line are pretty straight forward but not without two roundabouts within the last 2000 meters. Right after the gate to the last kilometer the road bends slightly to the left before the last 600 meters straight out to the finish line. Both Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have a strong lead out train ready to roll and I think whoever of those two taking the lead will bring their sprinter first to the line. Mark Cavendish normally doesn’t do well in the first bunch sprint in the big stage races and with only two guys to help him I think it will be a real power sprinter like Greipel or Kittel who takes the win.

My pick: Marcel Kittel to win Stage 2.