Tour Preview - Stage 6

---

Another sprint stage and another win for Andre Greipel. Just like it was supposed to be. That’s 5 out of 6 correct winner picks. Let’s hope it can continue for a while. The question is now if Greipel can make a Tour de France hat-trick on Stage 6. Looking at the profile there is no doubts it will turn into another bunch sprint and once again the race organizers have put in a very tricky finish!

Favorites:

The last 950 meters are all flat out to the finish line so if Lotto-Belisol manage to time like they have done in the past three sprints it should be another for Andre Greipel. However I think Mark Cavendish will be extremely motivated to take revenge. On Stage 4 he got sidelined in the sprint by the crash and on Stage 5 he made a mistake of losing a few positions in the final and was unable to overcome Greipel on the uphill finish.

The Lotto-Belisol train has been perfect so far, but they need to be very alert in the final on Stage 6. Just before the 2K mark there’s a 180° corner in the big roundabout from Rue du 20. Corps American going to Rue de l’Argonne and after that yet another roundabout with 1500 meters to go. The most tricky part of the finish has still to come though. The “Last Kilometer Gate” is placed just before the viaduct under the railroad and right after that the road turns left in a 90° corner.  Luckily the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Metz by then, but if not the riders have to be extremely careful coming through that viaduct and turning left.

Thinking about the last days it seems almost impossible we shouldn’t see any crashes in the finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two riders go down in that last tricky corner.

The viaduct just before turning left in a 90° corner. 1 km to go.

Lotto-Belisol with Andre Greipel is of course the team and man to beat, but don’t forget that Mark Cavendish is always best when he has some rage inside of him. I think the World Champion will be those few extra percentages more eager to win and that could be very well be just enough.

With three sprint stages behind us already it’s not very difficult to say who’s going to be in the mix. Alessandro Petacchi took 2^nd place on Stage 4 and if he manages to place himself near the front and doesn’t lose any positions in the last corner this finish could be very suitable for strong Italian to take another podium place.

Winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Alessandro Petacchi

Tour Preview - Stage 5

---

First of all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it will be another bunch sprint.

Favorites:

It would be easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the profile and the last kilometers of the stage.

Without a single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it. Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we are in for another dramatic day.

The last kilometers are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after 500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8 October.  On the profile it shows that the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before 700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish line on Boulevard Gambetta.

As of tonight (4^th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the  last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on the wet roads.

If you are looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter  for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a 4^th and 3^rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel

Top3 pick: Tom Veelers 

Tour Preview - Stage 4

---

If the outcome of Tuesday’s stage seemed familiar to you, it might as well happen again on Stage 4. After an uphill ‘Tourminator’ sprint, it’s now time for a regular bunch sprint. The route goes alongside the sea and with rain and cross wind on the menu it could very well be another dramatic stage. Everybody wants to be in the front - both GC-riders and sprinters - so there won’t be any time to relax during the 214,5 km towards Rouen.

Favorites:

With Marcel Kittel out of the picture (he might be back later in the Tour, but not already) it’s up to Lotto and GreenEdge to take control. One could argue that Team Sky should take part as well, but with all focus on Bradley Wiggins and Konstantin Sioutsou already out of the race with a broken leg, they can’t really spare any riders at this point. Of course if the cross wind becomes a factor it’s another story. But then they will be pulling for Wiggins, not for Cavendish. He is, once again, on his own.

When Mark Cavendish won in Tournai he used first Oscar Freire and then the GreenEdge leadout train to get him back to the front after finding himself down in 25^th position with less than a kilometer to go. I think the other teams will be more focused on not letting Cavendish reenter in the mix if he isn’t up there already and I expect Lotto to charge again. They have proven to have the strongest leadout train and with Sieberg, Roelandts and Henderson as the three last riders before Greipel they will be very, very difficult to overtake.

About 12 km from the finishing line the road kicks up for a few kilometers, but except from the very first part it shouldn’t have much influence on the outcome. On the top there is a long stretch of false flat before the riders slightly turn left and starts the real part of the descent. It’s a big road with only one or two corners before entering Rouen, so be ready for a super fast finish. Just before the last kilometer the riders turn right on a bridge crossing the Seine river - the ‘Last Kilometer Gate’ is actually placed on the bridge - and right after crossing the river there is a tricky left hand turn with about 700 meters to go.

It’s slight downhill the all the way to the line and if Lotto once again have timed it, Andre Greipel should be able to pull it off this time. As said it’s a super fast finish and those kind of run-ins actually suit Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s Juan José Haedo pretty well. If the Polka Dot beast Michael Mørkøv  and Tour-debutant Jonathan Cantwell can get Haedo placed around Greipel’s wheel he should be able to take advantage of his very high top speed.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel 

Top3 pick: Juan José Haedo

Tour Preview - Stage 3

---

We are already at day four in the Tour de France and just like Stage 1 this one has Peter Sagan written all over it! The last 35 km shows no less than five categorized climbs. Short one between 1 and 1½ km but all around 6-9% average. It looks like a real Ardennes classic and with the last 700 meters kicking up with 7,4% it’s tailor made for the puncheurs!

Favorites:

Not only is the last 700 meters towards the finishing line favoring Peter Sagan because it’s uphill but also because the last 150 meters are very tricky! After 500-600 meters uphill the road turns left just to turn right the very next moment in a roundabout before crossing the line. Sagan has shown numerous times how exceptional his bike handling skills are and the finish could be a little bit like the one in Tour de Suisse where he managed to overcome Ben Swift on the final meters despite a tricky double corner section just before the line.

Last year people seemed sure that Philippe Gilbert would win on Mûr-de-Bretagne after his outstanding victory on the first stage, but Gilbert couldn’t repeat it. Some might think that it will be the same with Sagan, but that’s not the case. While Gilbert is a one-day-race specialist, Peter Sagan knows how to win day after day in a stage race. In Tour of California he won five stages out of eight and in Tour de Suisse he won four out of nine. Sagan has already pointed out Stage 3 as a good chance for him to take his second stage win in the Tour and if Liquigas can managed to keep it together he will be very difficult to beat. Very difficult!

Last 700 meters of the stage kicks up with 7,4 % average. 

Alejandro Valverde did an outstanding job on Stage 1 when he managed to get back to the peloton after nearly crashing just a few kilometers before the final climb. Needless to say he started the climb in the back of the pack, but he still managed to get near the front and if it hasn’t been for Gesink sprinting close to the barrier in the final, Valverde could very well have taking 4^th place behind the leading trio. I doubt Alejandro Valverde will win Tuesday’s stage but I’m sure he will be in the mix - probably top3.


Fabian Cancellara said that he would try to attack again if he saw an opening, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went away just over the top of the last cat3 climb. The downhill section is very tricky and despite what the profile shows it's actually downhill almost all the way towards the final 700 meters. 

If you are looking for a joker, look to Robert Kiserlovski. The Astana rider is always rock solid and good on these kind of hills. His main job is to make sure Janez Brajkovic stays near the front, but if he sees his chance he won’t hesitate to take it. Team mate Alexander Vinokourov is also a man for this type of finishes and he is ready again he could be a serious outsider in Boulogne-Sur-Mer.

My pick: Peter Sagan to win Stage 4

Joker: Robert Kiserlovski

Tour Preview - Stage 2

---

Despite two interesting stages with a lot of drama we haven’t really seen anything we didn’t expect. Fabian Cancellara won the prologue like he was supposed to and Peter Sagan did the same in his very first Tour de France - giving a special bike for Stage 2 with “Tourminator” written on the frame. I don’t think much will happen on this stage and anything but a bunch sprint will be a massive surprise, the way I see it.

Favorites:

The good thing is that for once we have a lot of fast guys who can actually win the stage. It’s not just Mark Cavendish anymore. Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel and of course Sagan the Tourminator will all have a crack at it. In the past Cavendish’ team has been taking responsibility early on, starting to bring back the break away, but that won’t happen this year. It’s all for Bradley Wiggins now and therefore it’s up to the other teams to take control. One of those teams are Argos-Shimano, team of the German sprinter Marcel Kittel and despite this being their first Tour de France, Argos-Shimano are to take responsibility. “We know we have one of best sprinters in the race, so we owe to act accordingly”. An impressive statement from a Wild Card team!

The final kilometers towards the finish line are pretty straight forward but not without two roundabouts within the last 2000 meters. Right after the gate to the last kilometer the road bends slightly to the left before the last 600 meters straight out to the finish line. Both Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have a strong lead out train ready to roll and I think whoever of those two taking the lead will bring their sprinter first to the line. Mark Cavendish normally doesn’t do well in the first bunch sprint in the big stage races and with only two guys to help him I think it will be a real power sprinter like Greipel or Kittel who takes the win.

My pick: Marcel Kittel to win Stage 2.

Tour Preview - Stage 1

---

If you thought this was a stage for the sprinters you better modify your fantasy team. Looking at the official profile from LeTour the last 2,5 km have a part of 1,4 km with 5,8% average. But again, don’t be fooled. The average percentages of the 1400 meters may be 5,8% but 700 meters of those are around 15% up to Côte du Bois Hézalles!

On the top of the hill the riders turn left on a cobblestone section which for sure will get many riders to explode after being in red for the past 700 meters uphill. After turning right on Avenue de Centenaire it’s straight out home to the finishing line. Average of 2% - give or take.

Favorites:
This last hard part means that you won’t see sprinters like Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel in the final, but more the sort of fast guys like Peter Sagan, Phillipe Gilbert, Edvald Boasson Hagen and maybe even Matthew Goss. Sagan will be extra motivated after he lost his chances for yellow on the prologue while Phillipe Gilbert did a great prologue and now is in a good position to take the yellow jersey on home soil in Belgium.

The steep part on Côte du Bois Hézalles
Click for larger view!

At Team Sky the man for the stage is ‘Eddie the Boss’, but it will be very interesting to see how Mark Cavendish tackles the steep part after losing four kilos before the season. Cavendish had to lose weight in order to get up over the hills with the best in the Olympic Road Race and even though these 15% may be too much for him, I’m sure the World Champion won’t just sit up and take it easy.

Another guy who’s riding on home soil is the young Vacansoleil-DCM climber Wout Poels and he showed last year, in the Vuelta España, that he can be very dangerous in a final like this one. Look out for him!

My pick: Peter Sagan to win Stage 1.

Weather:
With only 10% chance of rain we should be in for another sunny day with the riders enjoying a bit of tail wind on the last 80 km back towards Liège. Let’s hope we won’t see any crashes like last year. It would be great if all the favorites made it to the mountains this time…

Photo © Laura Meseguer

Tour Preview - Prologue

---

This year’s Tour de France starts out with 6,4 km prologue in Liege, Belgium. Apparently the city of Liege has paid ASO over 4 million Euros to host the start of the Tour, so let’s hope we are in for a great show from the very start.

Favorites:

Looking at the course it’s difficult not to pick Fabian Cancellara as the big favorite. The technical route suits the Suisse time trial machine perfectly and he should be able to take good advantage of his outstanding bike handling skills. It’s a course that favors the ITT-specialists able to accelerate many times and therefore not exactly Tony Martin’s cup of tea.

In Tour de Suisse Peter Sagan showed he is capable of beating Fabian Cancellara on a technical course but this time there is no uphill section where Sagan can gain a little time on Cancellara. Bradley Wiggins is another good pick for the Top3 and I would be surprised if these riders won’t fight it out for the first yellow jersey of the Tour. If you are looking for an outsider go with Sylvain Chavanel. He is going strong right now and he aims big on this prologue.

My pick: Fabian Cancellara to win the prologue.

Weather:
As of Friday evening it should stay dry around 14:00 CET when Tom Veelers rolls down the start ramp in Liege so let’s hope it won’t change. Wind direction could change a little from SSW to SW giving the late starters a bit more tail wind on the ‘long’ stretch alongside the canal, but it shouldn’t really matter much.

You can find the starting order for the prologue right here.