Favorites for Tirreno-Adriatico

The other big stage race in March, Tirreno-Adriatico, is ready for us now and we have a great fight between a handful or strong riders to look forward to.

Let’s get straight to it...


Vincenzo Nibali
My own personal favorite for the race. Nibali has been good all year long and showed his strong climbing legs in Tour of Oman when he won on Green Mountain. In Strade Bianche last weekend he was among the best riders as well and with a strong team to back him I think he has very good chances of finally winning Tirreno-Adriatico. Liquigas always perform well in the team time trials and with a real mountain stage on the menu this year (final climb of 15 km on stage5) and a short time trial to end the race, I can’t see anyone better than Vincenzo Nibali right now.

Roman Kreuziger
Kreuziger has only a few race days in the legs so far, but one of his big goals of the season is Tirreno-Adriatico. In Strade Bianche Kreuziger was very strong making the final group and working hard for Iglinskiy, so it seems like he is ready. Kreuziger is very good in the short time trials as well as in the mountains and the short, steep finishes with his powerful sprint. Astana may not have the best team for the team time trial on day 1, but they shouldn’t lose that much either. Kreuziger isn’t afraid of attacking when needed and I think he is a solid pick for the podium.

Peter Velits
Another solid podium pick is Peter Velits. Just like Kreuziger, Velits has red circled Tirreno on the calendar and with his overall win in Tour of Oman and great time trial abilities (strong team as well) he should be mentioned as one of favorites to win Tirreno-Adriatico. The steep finishes like the ones in Chieti and Offida suit Velits well and if he can hang on to the best riders on the final climb on stage5, he has a very good chance of overall success.

Cadel Evans
It would be a mistake not to mention Cadel Evans. He won the race last year, without having done much before, and is more or less in the same situation this year. I must admit I have my doubts though. BMC hasn’t been great so far this year, with all their big riders now knowing they don’t have to top too early. Last year Cadel Evans really needed an overall stage race win, but know he knows what he is capable of. He will be motivated, no doubt, and he has a great team to support him, but I’m not sure he is as strong as Vincenzo Nibali on the climbs just yet.

Michele Scarponi
With only one race day in 2012, Michele Scarponi is a big question mark on my paper for Tirreno-Adriatico. In good shape he could end up winning it, but to be honest I have my doubt with Lampre captain. Last year he took third place overall, 15 seconds behind Cadel Evans, but last year he had already shown great shape in Giro di Sardegna. The course is actually pretty good for Scarponi but like Evans I doubt he is good enough shape to win overall already. He can take a stage, sure, but for the long run I see Nibali and Velits as better contenders.

Favorites for Paris-Nice

This year's route for Paris-Nice.

The first big important stage race of the season is finally here. A lot of hilly stages and two time trials, the last one on Col d’Eze, make it difficult to pick out one grand favorite, simply because there are so many contenders this time.

One could argue that the course favors riders like Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins, but with steep stages finishes like the one on Mende, suddenly Alejandro Valverde becomes the favorite – or what? Here is my view on the favorites for Paris-Nice 2012.

Winner candidates
I’m changing the set-up for my usual “Favorites”-pieces a bit, so instead of picking out three guys I will let you know which riders I see have a possible change of winning the race. First of those is naturally Alejandro Valverde. He was super strong in Andalucía and even though the peloton is stronger in Paris-Nice, I still find three stages with a finish perfect for Valverde. Remember there are 10 bonus seconds for each stage win. Before his ban Valverde had developed some pretty good time trial skills and I know he has been working hard on improving in this discipline during his ban. Still I doubt he is back at his former level against the clock and compared to some of the other strong riders, I think he will lose valuable time on the last stage.

One of the guys Valverde will lose time to is Bradley Wiggins. The British champion did an outstanding job in Volta ao Algarve, working hard for Richie Porte on the mountain stage and beating Tony Martin while winning the time trial. In February Wiggins said he was feeling stronger than ever before this time at year and if he can keep track of Valverde and minimize the gap on Mende he has a very good change of taking his first big stage race win.

Tony Martin won the race last year, but that was mainly because of his class in the long time trial. This year the two time trials both count less than 10 km and the climbing part definitely doesn’t favor Tony Martin compared to Wiggins and the others. Tony Martin still did well in Volta ao Algarve and if a dog hadn’t crossed the road in the time trial, making Tony Martin hit the brakes, I’m sure he would have won that stage. That means the shape is good and even though he may not win Paris-Nice this year, you mustn’t count him out too early.

Now it’s getting interesting, because here is my joker for the overall win; Rein Taaramae! Everyone following me know I have high expectations for Taaramae this year, but so does he. “I’m here to win, nothing else. The course suits me very well and the short, hilly time trials are in my favor. The whole team is working for me and I think I can win” – that’s not Valverde, Wiggins or Martin saying this, but Estonian Rein Taaramae – look out for him! I will honestly be very surprised if Taaramae doesn’t end on the final podium and from there everything is possible!

Another outsider for the overall win is Janez Brajkovic. The Astana captain hasn’t many race kilometers in the legs so far this year but this is a course that really suits the Slovenian. Brajkovic is good against the clock and on his best days he can stay with the top-climbers as well. Anything but a spot on the final podium with Janez Brajkovic would be a lack of ambitions from the Astana team and if Brajkovic is ready, I think he could surprise quite a few with an early season win.

Last rider on my paper with the status “winner candidate” next to him is Andreas Klöden. It may be a conservative pick, but Klöden is always good in Paris-Nice and the two time trials are very good for him. He knows Col d’Eze extremely well and if he rides like last year, he will be difficult to shake off. My only concern is that Klöden wasn’t very good in Volta ao Algarve last month, but if he is back at his normal “early-season-level” he should be a strong contender for the overall win too.

Well, that was my 6 winner candidates. I could go on with guys like Tejay Van Garderen, Levi Leipheimer, Richie Porte, Denis Menchov and Jerome Coppel who all are great in the time trials and the uphill sections, but I had to stop somewhere. So to make a long story short, if possible at this point, here is how I think the final Top10 will be:

1. Rein Taaramae
2. Bradley Wiggins
3. Alejandro Valverde
4. Janez Brajkovic
5. Andreas Klöden
6. Tony Martin
7. Tejay Van Garderen
8. Jerome Coppel
9. Bauke Mollema
10. Richie Porte

I picked out Oscar Gatto as a surprising winner of Strade Bianche and I keep on with the surprises in taking Rein Taaramae to win Paris-Nice. Oscar Gatto almost pulled it off, hadn’t it been for an outstanding Fabian Cancellara. Let’s see if Rein Taaramae has more luck. Many pick Alejandro Valverde as their favorite, but as I said, I still doubt his time trial skills a little bit. One thing is training another is racing and Alejandro Valverde hasn’t really been racing many time trials recently. Still, if his old time trial abilities are intact, of course he is the number one favorite to win Paris-Nice.

It’s going be a very close race this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if only seconds separate the three riders on the final podium.

Favorites for Strade Bianche

On Saturday we swap out the cobblestones in Belgium with white gravel roads in Italy. Montepaschi Strade Bianche (former Eroica) is on the menu and I think that we for once will get an Italian winner. Let's take a look at the favorites:

Oscar Gatto

Gatto's stage win in the Giro last year.

This may come as a surprise for many, but in my opinion Oscar Gatto is one of the strongest riders, taking part in the race, right now. Over the years he has been going from being "just a sprinter" to being good on the small hills and also on these gravel roads. He showed that last year in the Giro d'Italia taking 5th place on the stage to Orvieto on gravel roads and winning in Tropea i front of Contador after attacking on the final steep hill. In Strade Bianche last year Gatto tried to attack with Greg Van Avermaet in the final, but got railed back in again. Despite been on the attack he still managed to take 7th after Gilbert. If you look at Oscar Gattos recently results you may not be impressed, but I think it was clear to all who watched Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne last Sunday, that the little Italian is very strong right now. He also showed that in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad being in the group sprinting for 4th place. According to Oscar Gatto himself Strade Bianche is one of his top goals this season and without Gilbert in the same shape as last year, I honestly think Gatto can pull it off!

Alessandro Ballan

Ballan on gravel roads.

I said we would get an Italian winner and that is mainly because I see Alessandro Ballan as the second favorite for the race. Ballan took second place last year after messing up the last corner giving Gilbert a two meters gap. As I said, Gilbert is not as strong this early compared to last year, and therefore I think that Ballan very well could end up being the designated leader at BMC. Ballan started his season already in Tour Down Under and has been steadily improving ever since. In Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he worked hard in the peloton to catch the break away when team mate Thor Hushovd got dropped and in Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne he was one of most active guys in the big break with Tom Boonen (and Oscar Gatto). Alessandro Ballan has been 2nd in Strade Bianche twice already and I expect him to be on the podium this year as well.

Vincenzo Nibali

Nibali in the rosa working for Basso
on the muddy gravel roads in the Giro.

Another Italian rider? Indeed. Even though Liquigas have Peter Sagan and Daniel Oss on the team as well, I think this race suits Nibali the best. If you remember the epic Giro-stage in 2010 on gravel roads (won by Cadel Evans), Vincenzo Nibali was the one keeping his team leader Ivan Basso in the race, by an outstanding amount of work to minimize the gap to the front group. Nibali was flying that day and last year, on the stage to Orvieto,he took 6th place (right after Gatto). Another important factor not to forget is that Strade Bianche ends with a 300 meters downhill section with a lot of tricky corners (where Ballan lost the race last year) and that is definitely something Vincenzo Nibali masters better than anyone else.

I could actually go on with Italian riders among the candidates to the win. Giovanni Visconti and Simone Ponzi come to mind, like Enrico Gasparotto and young Enrico Battaglin. If I should point out a few foreigners though I think I would go with Ryder Hesjedal who loves this race and the Spanish veteran Patxi Vila who is aiming big at Strade Bianche this season. Talking favorites it may be shameful to not mention Fabian Cancellara, but for Cancellara the goals are coming later in the season. I think Radioshack will try with youngster Tony Gallopin and sprinter Daniele Bennati.

How to show faith in your designated sprinter

Mark Cavendish made it look easy with his text-book/video game sprint finish in Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, but it was especially thanks to Vacansoleil-DCM that it actually ended up in a mass sprint.

Vacansoleil-DCM working hard in front
of the peloton in order to catch the break.

When the big group with Boonen, Ballan, Farrar etc. got away they quickly gained one minute on the peloton. Team Sky had a couple of a guys up front as well, so it was up to Lotto to do the work in order to catch them. Greipel used up all his team mates and when it seemed like there were no one left to pull, Vacansoleil-DCM suddenly took the front with 6 guys. At the time it didn't really make any sense, since the Dutch team already had two riders in the group with Boonen, one of them being the fast Kris Boeckmans. Boeckmans had showed his sprinting legs less than a week ago in Volta ao Algarve [taking 2nd on stage2 almost beating Edvald Boasson Hagen] and would have been a good pick for a podium spot in the front group if they had made it to the finish. But that wasn't the plan for Vacansoleil-DCM.

Kenny Van Hummel may not be among the best sprinters in world, but he has been showing great condition so far this year, stating he feels stronger than ever before at this time of year. So despite having Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel next to him, Van Hummel moved to the front with 5 team mates in front of him, railing the breakaway back in.

Boeckmans places Van Hummel up front
ready to jump when Cavendish kicks.

When the break was caught, Team Sky took over and with 45 km to go they never let anyone else take the front. On the last kilometer, Vacansoleil-DCM moved near the front with Kris Boeckmans and Kenny Van Hummel. Boeckmans placed Van Hummel in a perfect position with 300 meters to go and when Cavendish kicked, Van Hummel was right behind him. Yauheni Hutarovich then passed him, but Kenny Van Hummel still managed to hold on to 3rd place.

I must say I'm really impressed by the faith Vacansoleil-DCM showed Kenny Van Hummel. Knowing that it very well would mean Mark Cavendish taking the win, they put 5-6 guys to the front of the peloton just to give Van Hummel a shot at beating the World Champion. I take my hat off for Vacansoleil-DCM for showing that kind of confidence in their sprinter and to Kenny Van Hummel as well for almost pulling it off and still getting on the podium.

Since Mark Cavendish took over as the best sprinter in the world, almost no other teams have been helping catching the breakaways, simply because they know they didn't have a chance of beating him. Therefore I think it's very refreshing to see a team like Vacansoleil-DCM helping out, even though no one would have expected them to do so. Thumbs up!

Favorites for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad & Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

It’s time for the Belgian cobblestones and I for one have been looking forward to this for quite some time now! Without much time on my hands I’ll go straight to it. Here are my favorites for the two races this weekend.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

Favorite number 1 is without any doubt Tom Boonen. This is one of the few races Tornado Tom hasn’t won yet and with the condition he has been showing so far this year, he is the man to beat. On top of that he even has one of the strongest teams to back him up. Riders like Chavanel, Ciolek, Steegmans are all there to work for Boonen and except for BMC I can’t see any teams with a line up as strong as Quickstep’s for this race.

It would be easy to say Juan Antonio Flecha, but to spice it up a bit I’ll go with Greg Van Avemaet. It’s true that both Philippe Gilbert and Thor Hushovd are there as well, but it’s not time for those two yet. Gilbert has RvV and the Ardennes on his mind while Hushovd has his mind fixed on Paris-Roubaix. This time Greg Van Avermaet has a rare chance to prove himself and with the shape he has proved to be in already, he is my best pick for a winner if not Tom Boonen takes it.

To stay with the outsiders, I’ll pick Marco Marcato. The Italian has recently made the cut for the Italian Olympic pre-selection and it seems like Marcato has started this season like he ended the last one – with style! Marcato has been working hard on his sprint during the winter and even though Vacansoleil also have Devolder on Leukemans on the roster for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, I think Marcato will be their designated leader. Look out for this in-shape Italian on Saturday!

Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

Like last year I think it will end up in mass sprint this time as well and who is the best sprinter of 2012 so far? Andre Greipel! The Gorilla has been outstanding and been climbing very well too. If he is ready after Tour of Oman he will be the number 1 favorite, and that’s even with Mark Cavendish on the starting line as well – new world…

It’s too easy to say Mark Cavendish now and honestly I don’t know if he’s up for it already. I'll go with another outsider in Yauheni Hutarovich. The Belarus took second place last year and seems to be in good condition already as well this year. He has been just short of stage wins in both Tour Down Under and Tour Méditerranéen and normally he is good in the Belgian races. Have you practiced your spelling? If not, do it now, cause the name Yauheni Hutarovich is likely to be mentioned in the top3 Sunday…

There are a lot of riders who can surprise this weekend and being Danish and all I sure hope Matti Breschel is one of them. Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is a very important race for Rabobank and it would be great to see Matti back in the mix with the best riders again. Also look out for Baden Cooke. The Australian has been great all season so far, and if he gets a chance it could take top3 in any of the two races.

Step Up!

This is something that has been bugging me for quite a while now. I may be the only one, but I'm now sick and tired of seeing some of sport's biggest riders neglecting to step up, take credit and say stuff like: "Yes, I'm freaking awesome. Didn't you see the way I won this stage?!"

Since Mario Cipollini I honestly don't recall any rider showing that "I'm great"-attitude and I think that's a shame. I'm not saying people should be arrogant and talk down to the other riders, not at all. What I'm saying is that riders like Mark Cavendish, Alberto Contador, Phillipe Gilbert & Alejandro Valverde these are all super stars - in cycling. They really are. Kids start to ride their bike because of them, they idolize them and when their heroes win something they make it look like they were "lucky" just to do so. No. They were simply better than the rest of the peloton!

"My team worked hard all day and gave me a perfect lead-out, I just had to open my sprint with 150 meters to go and win", does that sound familiar to you?

Cavendish wins a stage in the Tour'10 way in front of Petacchi.

And just to clarify again. I'm not saying that the team mates don't have any part in a victory. Of course they do. For the sprinters they make sure the breakaway gets caught and help setting up the sprint, but it is still Mr. Cavendish himself who wins by 2-3 bike lengths. He is so superior that the other teams don't even want to help catching the breakaways, because they know they won't beat him anyway. Mark Cavendish has a lot of charisma, and I like the way he behaves in the media, but I would like to see him, just once, step up and say: "I'm the best, that's why I won 6 stages in this bike race".

Same goes for Alberto Contador. Winning almost every single stage-race he is participating in, he never sounds confident in actually winning the race he is riding. Even in the Giro d'Italia last year, leading with several minutes, his official statements were something like: "Well, there is still a long way to go and we just hope for the best". Please Alberto... You have made the rest of the GC-contenders fight for only two spots on the podium pretty much from day one. Would it really hurt to say that you have been doing great yourself and now feel pretty secure on winning if nothing drastically changes?

Valverde's solo win in Vuelta Andalucía.

A fresh example is Alejandro Valverde. He made a mistake in Tour Down Under (read more here) but still won the toughest stage. In Vuelta Andalucía he was the man to beat on stage 2 to Lucena with a last kilometer hitting 18%. Everybody knew he would most likely win, and he did - solo victory! That means Valverde now leads the race with only two stages remaining. One of them seems like a sprint while the other one is another perfect stage for Valverde with a steep last 1,8 km.

So to sum it up: Alejandro Valverde has shown to be the strongest, by far, he leads the race and there are only two stages left where one of them is another one suiting him perfectly. So what does he say?

"Now there are two hard stages, it's going to be very difficult [to win overall] but we already took home a win and everything coming after that will be a plus"

Are you kidding me? Alejandro you just made a fool out of the rest of the peloton, with nobody being able to follow you and you even have another stage like that left. How can "everything coming after that" only "be a plus"?! And if you continue to ride like this, it will not be "very difficult" to win this race either. Come on...

The only rider with super star status, showing just a little bit of what I'm looking for is Phillipe Gilbert. Getting ready for the Belgian classics he recently said "I'm still not in top condition, but if I can win without doing much I will do it".

I know people nowadays don't want to stand out, and I really think it's damn shame to be honest. I'm not just talking about cycling, but any sport. It seems like nobody wants to say they are good at something, fearing for looking stupid if one day they fail. Why is that? If you are good at something, please let people know it. Don't be ashamed of being great. Right now it seems like the only people stepping up telling how good they are, actually are the ones not even being near to the top. And that is a shame!

I want to watch Mark Cavendish winning with 2 bike lengths against the rest of the world's best sprinters, see the joy in his eyes are hear him say "Did you just see that?! I won with 2 bike lengths!"

If you are the best at what you do - don't be ashamed of admitting it. You don't have to talk down to anybody, but you most definitely don't have to hide it either!

Meltdown leaders

First Alejandro Valverde and now Vincenzo Nibali. Despite being the strongest riders in the race, both riders missed out on winning the overall classification in Tour Down Under and Tour of Oman because of one stupid decision.

Alejandro Valverde and Vincenzo Nibali both like to race when it’s really hot outside, just like it was in Australia and Oman. Still both riders seemed to had a complete meltdown when the important decisions were to be made.

Valverde (green helmet) stops.
Gerrans (yellow jersey) overtakes him.

In Tour Down Under Alejandro Valverde admittedly stopped to pedal on the final meters on stage 2 to Stirling, seeing Simon Gerrans overtake him and get the bonus seconds for being third on the stage. Later on Alejandro Valverde showed to be strongest in show down between him and Gerrans, but since Gerrans had gotten the bonus seconds on stage 2, he ended up winning the race overall.

Normally Alejandro Valverde always sprints to the line, but I guess he still needs a little time getting back into the race rhythm after his ban.

Vincenzo Nibali attacking with the
sprinters teams chasing him down.

Vincenzo Nibali on the other hand had already been racing in 2012 before taking part in Tour of Oman. Still the Shark still to lack a lot of tactical sense. Nibali has always been very impulsive with his attacks, not really thinking very much ahead, and even though it seemed like he had grown in the Giro d’Italia last year, we can now conclude that he really hasn’t. Having been following the other overall favorites so far in the Tour of Oman, Nibali suddenly decided to attack on the last kilometer on stage 4. A completely flat finish, where he naturally got railed back in very quickly and hereafter couldn’t follow peloton, ending up losing 15 seconds to the other GC-riders.

The day after Vincenzo Nibali turned out to be – by far – the strongest climber in the race, winning on Green Mountain. Only problem was that Peter Velits got second on the stage, giving him the leaders jersey just 1 second ahead of Nibali.

Alejando Valverde would have won Tour Down Under, had he just continued pedaling the last few meters on stage 2 and Vincenzo Nibali would have won Tour of Oman had he not hopelessly attacked on the final – pancake flat – kilometer on stage 4.

Simon Gerrans and Peter Velits probably should send Valverde and Nibali a bottle of champagne thanking them for their help…