A few outsiders to win Lombardia

Let’s face it; there is one name and one name only when you talk about favorites for the hilly classics these years. Philippe Gilbert. Thing is that every rider in the peloton already knows that and it wouldn’t surprise me if we got an outsider on top of the podium in Lombardia to close a spectacular season.

Let’s take a look at a few outsiders who could ruin ‘the perfect’ season for Gilbert.

Rigoberto Uran, Team Sky.
Rigoberto Uran was very close to his big breakthrough in the Tour when he seemed sure to win the White Jersey before going under on the stage to Alpe d’huez. After that he regained his energy with a strong performance in San Sebastian before taking third place in GP de Quebec and latest another third place in Giro dell’Emilia. After Emilia he saved his energy for Lombardia where he will be the sole captain for a very strong Team Sky with Thomas Löfkvist showing great shape.

Uran is strong on the small steep climbs and very fast in a sprint, so don’t be surprised if he takes another top3 spot on Saturday - if not the win…

Pablo Lastras, Movistar.
It’s been a long and very successful season for Pablo Lastras and even though he had a long journey from the heavy smog in Beijing he should still be able to put down a good fight in Lombardia. It’s one of Lastras’ favorite races and last year he took third place after Gilbert & Scarponi showing great motivation for a good result despite the victory being out of reach for him. To help Lastras in the best possible way, Movistar sends strong riders like Rui Costa (who could be an outsider himself), Beñat Intxausti, Angel Madrazo, Ruben Plaza etc.

As said Pablo Lastras has had an amazing season so far and I think - and hope - that he can end it with style in Lombardia.

Daniel Moreno, Katusha.
I know. This is maybe too easy after he won in Piemonte last Thursday, but Dani Moreno is in fact a pretty good pick for an outsider to win Lombardia this year. Like Lastras, Moreno is finally back at this former level, probably even a lot better than ever before, and with Purito and Paolini the Katusha team really have a strong trio. Purito will probably be the leader, but like in Piemonte, Moreno can take advantage of this and try his own luck.

Most of you know that Dani Moreno is one of my favorite riders in the peloton, but no matter what, you all have to agree that if you can win in Piemonte two days before, you can definitely do great things in Lombardia as well!

Prezemyslav Niemiec, Lampre.
Damiano Cunego is without any doubts the leader at Lampre for Lombardia, having practically owned it earlier, but look out for this Polish guy as well. Niemiec is well known for his climber skills and after spending the whole season working his ass for his leaders, especially Michele Scarponi, this could be his big chance for a result for himself. Ending 5th in Emilia and 6th in Piemonte, Niemiec is certainly on the top of his game right now and if the long journey from Beijing shows to be too much for Cunego, he could end up surprising a lot of people with a strong ride in Lombardia!

If you are a gambler and you want to find the best winner bets for Lombardia, I suggest you read my article "Follow the money" at this site.

Follow the money

Who is going to win the race today? Maybe you need to update your manager team, maybe you are planning to put down a little money on the race or maybe you are just generally interesting in cycling. Whatever your reasons are to ask this question, the answer is very simple; follow the money - and then you will see.


Some people like to follow the expert’s picks – as you have been doing at this very site during the Tour and the Vuelta – while some prefers to follow their favorite tipster. You can get good picks this way, but if you want the great tips, you have to pay close attention to the bookmakers. Not on who the bookmakers think will win – let’s face it, they don’t really know more than you anyway – but pay attention to the riders whose odds suddenly start to drop heavily. It takes some time see it, but when you get the hang of it, it’s easy to see who the real favorites are.

Let me show you a couple of examples.

Giro d’Italia, stage 17 - May 25th.
On paper a typical breakaway stage. One of those stages where half of the peloton wants to give a shot and see what happens. As those of you who follow cycling closely know, this stage had names like Giovanni Visconti & Pablo Lastras written all over it and just like that both riders managed to get into the right breakaway. A coincident? No. These riders are experts in hitting the right breaks and therefore the odds on Visconti & Lastras aren’t very high at the start of the stage (around odds 10-20). The odds on a guy like Diego Ulissi are on the other hand much, much higher. Starting in around 200 or 300.

So, you might ask, how are you supposed to know that Ulissi is a good pick for this specific stage when the odds are so much higher on him than on ‘favorites’ like Visconti and Lastras? Well, this is where my thesis from before comes in handy – follow the money! It’s no secret that most bets on the cycling are placed in the final hours before the race starts. Therefore it’s a good idea to keep an open eye on the odds at this time. If you did back then, you would have had witness something very interesting. Suddenly the odds on Ulissi started to drop, from 300 to 200. From 200 to 100 and from 100 down to 40. It’s true that odds 40 still is a very high odds, but with the money placed on Ulissi it was easy to see that someone knew he was on fire that day.

6 hours later Diego Ulissi had won the stage. It’s true that he won because Visconti got disqualified in the sprint, but if you had bought Ulissi at odds 300 (or just 100) you would have been able to lay him on betting exchanges such as Betfair at odds 2 during the stage. In other words you would have been able to make a huge profit no matter what would have happen in the final sprint if you had followed the money and placed a bet on Ulissi when the odds on him started to drop.

Another example is from Paris-Tours last Sunday.
Usually the markets on cycling are very low at this point of the season. Meaning that the list of 20+ bookmakers with odds on the Tour de France is reduced to only a very few for Paris-Tours. One of these bookmakers is Betfair, but as always with these late season races, the liquidity is very low. That means that when the total amount of euro placed isn’t higher than a few thousands (many, many, many times lower than during the Tour) and then suddenly a rider at odds 100+ starting to get 20% of money it raises a few eyebrows. Or at least it should do!

The rider I’m talking about is Marco Marcato from Vacansoleil-DCM. Marcato sure seemed to be in the shape of his life, doing top10 in both of the Canadian races and winning Tour de Vendée just a week before, but to drop all the way down to odds 30 did seem a little off. Riders like Philippe Gilbert, Oscar Freire, Robbie McEwen, Sylvain Chavanel and the new World Champion Mark Cavendish were all to be considered as the big favorites for the race, and therefore it stands out when the few money on the race suddenly go to Marcato at such a high odds.

But just as the case with Diego Ulissi, Marco Marcato turned out to be the smart bet ending 2nd in the race behind Greg Van Avermaet. Starting at odds 100+ to win and odds 25 for a top3 spot, the Italian Vacansoleil-DCM rider sure made a few punters go to sleep happy that Sunday.

I could give a lot of examples like these two, but I think you got the basic idea now. So remember, if you want to get best picks for a race, always follow the money!

Giro start without crashes...?

I know it sounds almost impossible, but for once the organizers of the Giro d’Italia have actually tried to reduce the many inevitable crashes occurring during the first stages. The Giro starts in Denmark, and race-planner (and former pro.-rider) Alex Pedersen tells that first 3 stages have been planned to avoid as many round abouts, traffic islands, speed bumps etc as possible.

Compared to earlier, the favorite’s teams are now more likely to take control early in the race in order to keep their leaders up front at all time, and after studying the race start in Holland in 2010, Alex Pedersen knew something had to be changed.

“It’s going to be some very nervous stages in Denmark when everybody fears to lose time so early in the race. Therefore we have tried to find a route as safe as possible for the riders”, he says.

For sure we will see crashes in Denmark during the first couple of stages, but hopefully not as many as previously. Let’s get more big, bike races to Denmark! ;)

See the profiles of the 3 stages in Denmark below:

Stage 1 - 8,7 km ITT

Stage 2 - 206 km

Stage 3 - 190 km

Interview - Gianni Savio (Team Manager Androni Giocattoli - C.I.P.I)

After being the national coach for first Columbia (2001-2005) and then Venezuela (until last year) Gianni Savio has now decided to concentrate fully on managing his Androni Giocattoli - C.I.P.I team. A team who had a very good season starting out winning 3 stages in San Luis, 1 stage in Langkawi plus the overall win, Giro del Friuli, 2 stages plus the overall in Settimana Coppi e Bartali and then two stages in the Giro with Rujano finishing 7th in the overall classification.

The biggest signing of this year was the re-signing of José Rujano, 5 years after he quit the team during the 2006 season. Rujano never managed to get back to his former level, but with Gianni Savio he once again raised and won the big mountain stage to Grossglockner in the Giro.

Gianni, how will you describe the season for your team this year?
I think we had a very good season. We started very well. My philosophy is that it’s always very important to start out well. So we had a good preparation during the winter and we got some very good results in the first part of the season. It’s how we do, we always start out strong and then we defend our position in the second part of the season. It’s important to remember that there is an agreement between the Italian federation and the organizers of the Giro, saying that the best Italian team from the year before will get an invitation to the Giro, so that is what we are trying to obtain.

In the second part of the season there were a lot of rumors about Rujano changing team again in order to do the Vuelta. What was all that about?
No no, that was just rumors. Somebody starts talking about Rujano might want to change team to do the Vuelta, but that was never going to happen. Naturally we had no interest in letting him go, and Rujano never talk with me about it either.

Well it seems like it was the smart move for Rujano as well, since he has never managed to function in any other teams than yours…
Yes that’s true. I was the one discovering him when he was very young in a little village in the Venezuelan hills on the border to Columbia. Then he came to Italy and he had a lot of progress. We actually waited for him for 3 years to progress, without putting any pressure on him. Then he came to the Giro and he finished third. After that I think that he made some mistakes. It’s important to know that Rujano has very particular personality. I think it’s necessary to know him well, follow him and also be able to tell him “No” if it’s needed. I think that in some of the teams he went to the people around him always told him “yes, yes, yes” and made him believe he was the new God of cycling. And also, in the big teams he wasn’t being followed as well as he should have been by the team management. Somebody told him he was a champion, but the problem is that he was not a champion. He had the possibility to be one, but at that time he wasn’t a champion. Then when he came back to us and you saw what happened.

And how did you get him back?
Well, back in November last year, just when we had finished our team budget for our 16 riders, I received a phone call from Hernán Alemán [Politician, in the Venezuelan parliament] a friend of mine who is also the owner of the team Gobernación del Zulia [where Rujano was riding in the second part of the 2010 season]. He told me that he thought it was a shame that Rujano was wasting his talent only riding in Venezuela and that we should take him back to Italy to ride with the bests. I told him that I had to talk with Rujano first myself, because even though we always had a good relationship, the way we parted ways with the team wasn’t good at all. So I talked with Rujano three times and to me his mentality seemed to be changed. After that I talked with Alemán again and told him “okay” and we made a contract with Rujano for 2 years, with a significant payment increase if his results this year were good – which they turned out to be.

And next year, I suppose Rujano once again has the Giro as his big target?
Sure. He is the leader of the team and the plan for him is to prepare well for the Giro and if possible to return to podium.

About the team next year. You re-signed all of the great riders for 2011, but you still need four more riders…
Right now we have 12 riders and I think we will sign two other riders next week [this week]. One Italian rider and the other one right now is a South American. The plan is to end up with 16 riders, but our main goal was to re-sign all of our important riders first. To me it would have been crazy to lose our own riders and bring in new ones from other teams.

There was some talk about Davide Rebellin would return to your team as well…
Well, Davide was one of my riders 3 years ago and I am very sorry for how it turned out for him. It is true I have been talking with him. I tried to present him with the realism of his situation, telling him that no matter what he says then this [the positive test] is the result. So I told him to explain his situation to everybody, make a press release to let the Media know what happened. It’s not good the way he did. You can’t just disappear…

Is there any chance of seeing Davide back at Androni?
I talked with Davide and I told him that if he, right now, came forward and explained his situation and what exactly had happened, there was a possibility [to sign a contract with Androni]. But as the things are right now, it’s not possible.

Did you also fear that bringing Davide back to the team would jeopardize the chances of an invitation for the Giro?
No, that has never been in my consideration. Also the anti doping policy is very strict. UCI works very, very well against doping with the biologic passport which makes it possible for me to follow my riders. In the past that wasn’t possible. I live in Turin and I have riders all over the world, one in Florence Italy, one in Bogota Columbia, one in Caracas in Venezuela and what can I do? How I am supposed to follow every one of them? It was impossible.

What about a rider like Emmanuelle Sella. Do you think he can return to his former level?
Well, to be honest. For him to return to the same level as in 2008, I think it is very, very difficult [read between the lines…]. But he is good rider and I think he will return to a very good position again. Not to win three mountain stages, the jersey and end 5 in the GC, but sure he can return and do great things.

And does Sella know this? Because I read an interview with him before the Giro, when he was talking about aiming for the podium already…
He knows. This season was important for Sella in his way back and to prepare himself for next year as well. I think that he will make a lot better results next season, even though his year wasn’t bad for him at all. The problem with Sella is his mentality. He is very fragile. In the Giro he was too nervous all the time and for that reason he couldn’t make any better results than he did, but I hope it will be better next year.

Roberto Ferrari made a name for himself this season, what can we expect of him next year?
Roberto is a very good rider, but he was stopped by mononucleosis. He managed to finish the Giro, probably the only sprinter who did so, and then afterwards he found out he had mononucleosis. Something he had had since the third week of the race. So after the Giro he stopped and now he is preparing for the next season. He is a good sprinter and even though I hope he can beat Cavendish, I must also be realistic. We have to keep our feet on the ground. We will see…

THE CAVENDISH

Boooooom! That's how it's done kiddos! Text book win by Great Britain and Mark Cavendish. Put the best team possible together, control the pack at all time and finish it off with a gold medal.

No idea in wasting guys in breakaways without a chance to win. Bradley Winnins said, during the Vuelta, that he had preferred only to do the time trial but since he already had promised Cav to help him win the World Champs, he would do the road race as well and damn he did that race!

On the press conference afterwards, Cav said that he knew right away that he would win when he kicked in the final. That guy is simply amazing...

I know I picked Sagan to win, but it seems like he got out in the wind way too early. Still I would like to point out that I had 2 out of 4 names in the top4 and my top10 ended up looking pretty good as well ;)

So, that's all for this time...Interview with Gianni Savio will be online Monday or Tuesday - stay tuned!

Cavendish, Cavendish, Cavendish…Sagan!

It can be a long day in front of the tv - or alongside the road - tomorrow, so to spare you a lot of time, here is how the World Champions 2011 is going down…

Starting out with a classic ‘few men breakaway’, peloton chasing quietly with the help of a some small nation riders who need a new contract. Around half way through the race the big nations send out a 3rd and 4th card player to test the bunch, nothing serious, you all know how it is. Within the last 4-5 laps the real guns start blazing. Spain sends out Lastras or Barredo, Italy tries with Visconti, while Gerrans represents Australia. Belgium misses the move and chase hard with UK and Germany. On the last lap Gilbert gives a go on the small hill with 10 km to go but never gets off and decides to stop and go back to prepare the sprint...

In the last corner UK has the front. Wiggins, who has been leading the peloton for a couple of kilometers putting everybody on their limit, leaves the front to Gerraint Thomas with Cavendish on his wheel. Thomas does this thing with 50+ km/h while everybody fighting to be on Cavendish’ wheel. On the final 350 meters Greipel tries to get a jump on Cavendish who reacts quickly and get back and pass the German. Cavendish seems to take the win but on the last 50-100 meters Peter Sagan shows up. The Slovakian has been hiding all day long but now he is there, right where he needs to be. He passes Cavendish and win with a couple of meters while Italian joker Viviani takes the bronze medal thanks to a powerful finish.

That leaves us with a top10 looking a little bit like this:
1. Peter Sagan
2. Mark Cavendish
3. Elia Viviani
4. Andre Greipel
5. Oscar Freire
6. Roman Feillu
7. Philippe Gilbert
8. Heinrich Haussler
9. Tyler Farrar
10. Grega Bole

I know there are a million of different scenarios, but to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if it all turned out something like the above.

What do you all think? Who is your favorite?

And hey, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/mrconde) for live updates, comments and pictures!

Enjoy the race!

Interview - Jesus Hernandez (Team Saxo Bank)

Sitting in the grass in one of the spectators’ tents, watching the Women’s Road Race, not an eye on him. Alberto Contador’s best friend, team mate and right hand in the mountains; Jesus Hernandez seems to be able to walk around completely unnoticed. Somehow I guess it would be very different had Contador been here too. With a flat course like the one in Copenhagen, naturally Jesus has not been picked for the Spanish team, which is why the reason for his presence has to be found in the Women’s Road Race, where his girlfriend Anna Sanchis is participating.

About the World Championships

Jesus, how do you see the course? Is it a good one for the Spanish team?

Yes, I think so. I have just talked with the Spanish coach and he told me that Freire is very, very motivated and really wants to win this.

Sounds good. Who is your favorite for tomorrow? A lot of good riders…

Yes, indeed. There are many riders to choose between and I don’t see one super favorite. The thing is that the course is not flat, but not very hard either. Freire could win it on a good day, but also Hushovd, Cavendish and of course Gilbert who is looking very strong. The question is; who is going to control the race? It’s going to be a very nervous race with so many riders in the peloton, especially in the corners and you have to be careful not to crash.

Yesterday [Friday] both of the road races ended in a bunch sprint. If we say that won’t happen tomorrow, who is your favorite then?

Well Gilbert, no doubt about that. He has had an incredible year so far and with an uphill finish like this, he is the best man in the world.

And what about Rojas?

Rojas could be a rider for the podium, but he has nothing on Gilbert. The only riders who can beat Gilbert areFreire, Hushovd and maybe Cavendish. It’s hard to say anything about Cavendish because he has never been in the final in the World Champions, but if he is there at the end, of course he is good bet. Still, I will say it’s a better course for riders like Hushovd and Gilbert.

About Giro-Tour double, Team Saxo Bank & the future:

Okay. Let’s talk about next year. What is going on right now. The whole situation with Alberto must be very frustrating?

Well, right now Alberto is still a rider with Team Saxo Bank for the next season. I think the first hearing is in November but right now, we just think about the Tour next year. We can’t really do anything else. What happens, happens. If it’s good, great. If not, then we take it from there. Right now we take it easy and only think about winning the Tour.

Winning the Tour. Something that many thought Alberto would do this year as well. Was the Giro-Tour double too much for him?

Well, it’s important to know that when we planned this season, we didn’t even think about going to the Tour and therefore we only focused on preparing for the Giro in the best way possible. The Tour was not on the menu since we didn’t know what would happen with Alberto in July. So, because of that we just did everything for the Giro and then in May we got the word that Alberto could do the Tour and then, well…we were a little bit too tired after such a hard Giro.

And next year? Only the Tour?

Yes, next year the plan is only to do the Tour and then after that we will see about the Vuelta. If Alberto wins the Tour and still feels good, well of course we will go the Vuelta as well, but if Alberto wins the Tour and feels tired afterwards, or there are any problems, then we won’t go.

Looking at the team as it is right now. Is it strong enough?

I think that we have a very strong team. Still, I think that we need one very, very strong rider who can stay with Alberto in the mountains. We have a lot strong guys, who all work very hard, but I really think we need that one more rider who can be with Alberto at the end.

If you could pick, who would it be?

Puff… [laughing] I don’t know. They all seem to have contracts now. We just got Paulinho who is very good rider in all aspects; time trialing, on the flat, in the mountains and he moves around in the peloton very well. He is very clever and definitely a good rider for our team, especially since Richie Porte leaves us for Team Sky. We have good riders to work, but as I said, we really need a rider who can be with Alberto at the end.

Team Saxo Bank has always had a very strong team spirit, letting every rider has his chance to shine. Now, with Alberto in the team, it seems like the whole team is focused aroudn him. Like Mercatone Uno with Pantani.

Well yes, that’s true. Still, in the team we don’t have any other riders at Alberto's level. Nobody has that. So, I think it’s only normal. I mean look at how it was with Lance and Indurain, who had the whole team build up around them. Right now, the team supports Alberto and with all his wins I think it’s only to be expected. If he someday stops winning, well, then we will work for somebody else [laughing].

How about your own ambitions for the next year?

My primary goal is to arrive at the Tour with Alberto in the best shape possible. Then, in the Vuelta, if Alberto is ready, I will help him again. If he is not there, I will have the chance to fight for a stage win the mountains.

And you will ‘only’ be in races where Alberto participates?

Right now, I don’t know, but normally yes. For example in the Tour, it’s very important for us that we know each other very well. So, it will probably be like that all year. And hey, that suits me perfectly. To be riding with my best friend, well… great!

Last question. You have one more year left on your contract with Bjarne Riis and the team. What are your plans?

Well as you know, I’m staying with Alberto so if he goes so do I, but I can say that right now Alberto is very, very happy with Riis, and I’m happy with the team. If nothing happens we will stay here many, many years.