Showing posts with label Tour de France. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tour de France. Show all posts

Friday, December 23, 2011

$30.000 for 4th place - Zero for the victory

Lance Armstrong on his way to 4th place and $30.000.
Yesterday ESPN wrote this article about the details of U.S. Postal’s sponsorship deal with Lance Armstrong’s team. Here it says that Lance Armstrong got paid $1,47 million in bonuses for his stage wins, yellow jerseys and overall victory in the Tour de France 2001.

On the statement showing how the $1,47 million are divided we can see that Lance Armstrong got $75.000 for each stage win and then $15.000 for keeping the yellow jersey after every stage. What I like to point out though is that Lance Armstrong apparently got $30.000 from U.S. Postal for taking 4th place on stage to Luz Ardiden. $30.000 and he didn’t even entered the top3.

May I remind you that in 2001 the American Dollar was higher than the Euro has even been...

The stage was won by Roberto Laiseka, first Tour de France stage win in the history of the Basque Euskaltel-Euskadi team, and how much do you think Laiseka got paid in bonuses for this historical stage win?

The answer is zero. No bonus but the glory.

 Laiseka wins on Luz Ardiden.
“At Euskaltel-Euskadi there are no bonuses for winning stages. The riders have their regular payments and that’s what they earn. Of course such a win can be used when negotiating a new contract, but for the stage win itself there is no bonus” , press officer of Euskalte-Euskaldi, Jesus Aizkorbe, explains to me.

You can argue that for Roberto Laiseka winning on Luz Ardiden in Basque territory in the orange colors of Euskaltel-Euskadi no bonus could probably top that feeling, but I’m sure he would have appreciated having a deal just giving him half of what Lance Armstrong got for taking 4th place on the very same stage.

Update - After reading this article Roberto Laiseka sent me the following message on Twitter:

Thursday, December 22, 2011

CAV4SPOTY - The odds are on his side

UPDATE 22/12 @ 23:00 - Mark Cavendish won!

Tonight it’s time for the BBC Sports Personality 2011 show and the big favorite for the award is no other than cycling’s very own Mark Cavendish. Winning two stages in the Giro, five in the Tour plus the green jersey and taking the World Champion title in September, Mark Cavendish finally seems to be rewarded for his amazing talent.

At the world’s biggest betting community, Betfair, Mark Cavendish is the number one favorite for the Spoty award at odds 1,40. In fact Mark Cavendish is such a big favorite that Betfair has made an extra market called “winner without Cavendish”. So far €700.000 has been matched on the BBC Sports Personality 2011 market - €280.000 of these on Mark Cavendish to win and that makes Cavendish check up on his rivals.

"He [Cavendish] is regularly checking the odds for him to win Sports Personality of the Year with the bookies and looking at what his main rivals are up to", Bradley Wiggins told cyclingnews last week.

On Twitter the CAV4SPOTY campaign has been going on for a long time and it seems like it will happen tonight. I sure hope he wins - wouldn’t it be great to end the year with some positive cycling news?...

Monday, December 19, 2011

Bookmakers to sponsor cycling teams? First reaction

Last week I wrote a piece about new possible sponsors for the cycling teams. First up was the betting industry, which I claimed was likely to be a new sponsor for a WorldTour team in a couple a years. Unfortunately one of the biggest operators on the market right now, Betfair, won’t be one of them.

I talked with Betfair’s Head of Northern Europe, Jacob Weinreich, and he made it very clear that Betfair has no intentions on moving in on the cycling market.

”My personal opinion is that cycling can be a tough sell to the gaming market. As an operator you have to be in the awareness game to enter into cycling sponsorships. For a market place like Betfair you need a high number of punters to get attractive markets going. Cycling is a small sport with few high profile races hence you don’t have many hard core punters following it”, he tells me.

As I wrote in my earlier piece, one of the main reasons why the bookmakers could end up staying away is the limited in-play action compared to football and tennis. Jacob Weinreich explains:

“The nature of gaming and bookmakers is that the more events the better. Football and tennis are great examples of this where you have more or less constant action around the calendar year. You can bet in-play and the odds are changing every second. In cycling it takes 5-6 hours from the stage starts till it ends and you can make a profit. That’s too much waiting without any - or very limited – action”.

Unfortunately that leaves us with only a few reasons why a bookmaker would step in to the cycling world.

“The only way I can see a bookmaker sponsor a cycling team is if they really want to create some awareness around themselves and show they cover all types of sports. Or if they want to make an impact on a specific market, ex. the Spanish market, and then go in and sponsor one of the teams in the Vuelta. You have seen this in the past with Unibet coming into cycling. Unibet had at this time a significant interest in France and the sponsorship could possibly be justified this way”, Jacob Weinreich says.

As you can imagine this was not exactly the scenario I was hoping for, still I totally understand Betfair’s point of view. I just hope that other bookmakers, like Unibet, want to move in on ex. the Spanish, French or Italian market now when the gambling monopolies are coming to an end. Time will tell…

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Possible new cycling sponsors - part I

In the light of HTC’s and GEOX’ goodbye to cycling and the fusion between Radioshack and Leopard, I’ve taken a look at some new potential sponsors who all bring a big bag of money to the table.

Two of the most sold jerseys worldwide, sponsored by Bwin.
First up is the betting industry. Bookmakers all over the world are making tons of money every day on poker, casino and sports betting and are all looking for potential sports to sponsor. Bwin has been sponsoring the entire best Portuguese football league for years and are currently on the chest of worldwide known players like Ronaldo and Kaka. The financial details of the Portuguese league sponsorship haven’t been disclosed, but we do know that that the price for the coveted sponsor deal with Real Madrid gives the Spanish club €20 million a year. And this is only a visual deal. Have you ever mentioned Bwin when you are talking about Real Madrid? I know I haven’t… Imagine if they put just half of that amount into a cycling team where they will get the rights to the entire team name. €10 million is more or less the budget Team Sky (Bradley Wiggins & Mark Cavendish) and Liquigas (Ivan Basso & Vincenzo Nibali) have and a few millions more than Team Saxo Bank (Alberto Contador) and Lampre (Alessandro Petacchi & Damiano Cunego) have.

Team? Unibet weren't allowed shown on the tricot.
It’s a known fact that the bookmakers have plenty of money to spend on marketing so why aren’t any of them throwing their love (and money) at cycling? Well, as you might remember; Swedish bookmaker Unibet tried just that back in 2006. Unibet paid €6-8 million a year for their ProTour team sponsorship but ended up abandoning the sport again after only two years. The different countries’ gambling monopoly prevented Unibet to take part in any of the three Grand Tours and therefore they decided to leave. ”It's too bad that cycling has been troubling a sponsor that invests no less than €25,000,000 in the sport”, team manager Hilaire Van der Schueren said in 2007.

So why should the bookmakers come back and spend €8-10 million on a WorldTour team sponsorship? First of all, it’s important to remember that the very same gambling monopolies that ended up killing Team Unibet now are about to disappear thanks to the EU-wide legalizations on the gambling markets. Denmark, France, Spain etc. will all legalize gambling and public sports betting advertizing in 2012 and that means that the fear of being excluded from ex. the Tour de France due to a bookmaker sponsor is now gone.

Denmark was the first country to legalize gambling and that has had an immediate effect on the best football league which, in 2012, will be co-sponsored by the Scandinavian bookmaker Betsafe while the 2nd division will be renamed to “The Betsafe League”. According to my information Betsafe pays around €1 million for this sponsorship. The thing is that Betsafe is already a well known brand in Denmark. Wouldn’t it be great if they decided to spend their money on the Danish Team Saxo Bank and help securing one of those big names (Thor Husvhod, Tony Martin etc.) that Bjarne Riis didn’t have the money for as well?

Odds on the Tour de France 2012 at Betsafe.
There is one big bridge to cross though and that is the fact that cycling still is an absolute niche sport for the bookmakers. Most bookmakers are making red numbers on their cycling bets and the amount of money placed on the cycling markets are microscopically small compared to big sports like football and tennis. Still we must remember that despite this fact Unibet did think it was a good idea to sponsor a cycling team in the best league.

It might look like a dead end, but personally I believe that we will see bookmakers entering top cycling within the next couple of years. It might be too early – after the end of the gambling monopolies – in 2012 already, but I feel quite confident saying that the Tour de France 2014 will have a least one team sponsored by an online bookmaker on the start list, except for Lotto and FDJ of course.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Rumor killer - Vacansoleil-DCM denies ties with Cobo

Vuelta España winner Juanjo Cobo
After former Team GEOX boss Mauro Gianetti gave Juanjo Cobo ‘carte blanche’ to leave the team and a find a new one for 2012 different rumors have been going on about the future of the recent Vuelta España winner. One rumor sends Cobo to Vacansoleil-DCM since it seems like the Dutch WorldTour team will have some extra money left in case Ezequiel Mosquera gets the expected 2 years ban.

But after getting burned by first Mosquera and later thrown into the fire by Riccardo Riccò, Vacansoleil-DCM now wants stay clear of any suspicious riders. Juanjo Cobo was a part of the Saunier Duval team who had to withdraw from the Tour de France in 2008 due to doping violations by its riders Leonardo Piepoli and Riccardo Riccò and Vacansoleil-DCM can’t afford to have that happening again.

“We can’t be the team to sign a rider like him after what happened to us with Mosquera and Riccò. We can’t afford to do that again to ourselves and therefore we have never been interested in signing him. I have great respect for the rider and I regret to talk about a rider who is never tested positive in this way, but unfortunately this is how cycling is at the moment”, press officer Ard Bierens explains to me.

As I wrote earlier on this site it is expected that Juanjo Cobo will continue his career at one of the WorldTour licensed teams, but it will for sure not be at Vacansoleil-DCM.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Follow the money

Who is going to win the race today? Maybe you need to update your manager team, maybe you are planning to put down a little money on the race or maybe you are just generally interesting in cycling. Whatever your reasons are to ask this question, the answer is very simple; follow the money - and then you will see.


Some people like to follow the expert’s picks – as you have been doing at this very site during the Tour and the Vuelta – while some prefers to follow their favorite tipster. You can get good picks this way, but if you want the great tips, you have to pay close attention to the bookmakers. Not on who the bookmakers think will win – let’s face it, they don’t really know more than you anyway – but pay attention to the riders whose odds suddenly start to drop heavily. It takes some time see it, but when you get the hang of it, it’s easy to see who the real favorites are.

Let me show you a couple of examples.

Giro d’Italia, stage 17 - May 25th.
On paper a typical breakaway stage. One of those stages where half of the peloton wants to give a shot and see what happens. As those of you who follow cycling closely know, this stage had names like Giovanni Visconti & Pablo Lastras written all over it and just like that both riders managed to get into the right breakaway. A coincident? No. These riders are experts in hitting the right breaks and therefore the odds on Visconti & Lastras aren’t very high at the start of the stage (around odds 10-20). The odds on a guy like Diego Ulissi are on the other hand much, much higher. Starting in around 200 or 300.

So, you might ask, how are you supposed to know that Ulissi is a good pick for this specific stage when the odds are so much higher on him than on ‘favorites’ like Visconti and Lastras? Well, this is where my thesis from before comes in handy – follow the money! It’s no secret that most bets on the cycling are placed in the final hours before the race starts. Therefore it’s a good idea to keep an open eye on the odds at this time. If you did back then, you would have had witness something very interesting. Suddenly the odds on Ulissi started to drop, from 300 to 200. From 200 to 100 and from 100 down to 40. It’s true that odds 40 still is a very high odds, but with the money placed on Ulissi it was easy to see that someone knew he was on fire that day.

6 hours later Diego Ulissi had won the stage. It’s true that he won because Visconti got disqualified in the sprint, but if you had bought Ulissi at odds 300 (or just 100) you would have been able to lay him on betting exchanges such as Betfair at odds 2 during the stage. In other words you would have been able to make a huge profit no matter what would have happen in the final sprint if you had followed the money and placed a bet on Ulissi when the odds on him started to drop.

Another example is from Paris-Tours last Sunday.
Usually the markets on cycling are very low at this point of the season. Meaning that the list of 20+ bookmakers with odds on the Tour de France is reduced to only a very few for Paris-Tours. One of these bookmakers is Betfair, but as always with these late season races, the liquidity is very low. That means that when the total amount of euro placed isn’t higher than a few thousands (many, many, many times lower than during the Tour) and then suddenly a rider at odds 100+ starting to get 20% of money it raises a few eyebrows. Or at least it should do!

The rider I’m talking about is Marco Marcato from Vacansoleil-DCM. Marcato sure seemed to be in the shape of his life, doing top10 in both of the Canadian races and winning Tour de Vendée just a week before, but to drop all the way down to odds 30 did seem a little off. Riders like Philippe Gilbert, Oscar Freire, Robbie McEwen, Sylvain Chavanel and the new World Champion Mark Cavendish were all to be considered as the big favorites for the race, and therefore it stands out when the few money on the race suddenly go to Marcato at such a high odds.

But just as the case with Diego Ulissi, Marco Marcato turned out to be the smart bet ending 2nd in the race behind Greg Van Avermaet. Starting at odds 100+ to win and odds 25 for a top3 spot, the Italian Vacansoleil-DCM rider sure made a few punters go to sleep happy that Sunday.

I could give a lot of examples like these two, but I think you got the basic idea now. So remember, if you want to get best picks for a race, always follow the money!

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Interview - Jesus Hernandez (Team Saxo Bank)

Sitting in the grass in one of the spectators’ tents, watching the Women’s Road Race, not an eye on him. Alberto Contador’s best friend, team mate and right hand in the mountains; Jesus Hernandez seems to be able to walk around completely unnoticed. Somehow I guess it would be very different had Contador been here too. With a flat course like the one in Copenhagen, naturally Jesus has not been picked for the Spanish team, which is why the reason for his presence has to be found in the Women’s Road Race, where his girlfriend Anna Sanchis is participating.

About the World Championships

Jesus, how do you see the course? Is it a good one for the Spanish team?
Yes, I think so. I have just talked with the Spanish coach and he told me that Freire is very, very motivated and really wants to win this.

Sounds good. Who is your favorite for tomorrow? A lot of good riders…
Yes, indeed. There are many riders to choose between and I don’t see one super favorite. The thing is that the course is not flat, but not very hard either. Freire could win it on a good day, but also Hushovd, Cavendish and of course Gilbert who is looking very strong. The question is; who is going to control the race? It’s going to be a very nervous race with so many riders in the peloton, especially in the corners and you have to be careful not to crash.

Yesterday [Friday] both of the road races ended in a bunch sprint. If we say that won’t happen tomorrow, who is your favorite then?
Well Gilbert, no doubt about that. He has had an incredible year so far and with an uphill finish like this, he is the best man in the world.

And what about Rojas?
Rojas could be a rider for the podium, but he has nothing on Gilbert. The only riders who can beat Gilbert areFreire, Hushovd and maybe Cavendish. It’s hard to say anything about Cavendish because he has never been in the final in the World Champions, but if he is there at the end, of course he is good bet. Still, I will say it’s a better course for riders like Hushovd and Gilbert.

About Giro-Tour double, Team Saxo Bank & the future:

Okay. Let’s talk about next year. What is going on right now. The whole situation with Alberto must be very frustrating?
Well, right now Alberto is still a rider with Team Saxo Bank for the next season. I think the first hearing is in November but right now, we just think about the Tour next year. We can’t really do anything else. What happens, happens. If it’s good, great. If not, then we take it from there. Right now we take it easy and only think about winning the Tour.

Winning the Tour. Something that many thought Alberto would do this year as well. Was the Giro-Tour double too much for him?
Well, it’s important to know that when we planned this season, we didn’t even think about going to the Tour and therefore we only focused on preparing for the Giro in the best way possible. The Tour was not on the menu since we didn’t know what would happen with Alberto in July. So, because of that we just did everything for the Giro and then in May we got the word that Alberto could do the Tour and then, well…we were a little bit too tired after such a hard Giro.

And next year? Only the Tour?
Yes, next year the plan is only to do the Tour and then after that we will see about the Vuelta. If Alberto wins the Tour and still feels good, well of course we will go the Vuelta as well, but if Alberto wins the Tour and feels tired afterwards, or there are any problems, then we won’t go.

Looking at the team as it is right now. Is it strong enough?
I think that we have a very strong team. Still, I think that we need one very, very strong rider who can stay with Alberto in the mountains. We have a lot strong guys, who all work very hard, but I really think we need that one more rider who can be with Alberto at the end.

If you could pick, who would it be?
Puff… [laughing] I don’t know. They all seem to have contracts now. We just got Paulinho who is very good rider in all aspects; time trialing, on the flat, in the mountains and he moves around in the peloton very well. He is very clever and definitely a good rider for our team, especially since Richie Porte leaves us for Team Sky. We have good riders to work, but as I said, we really need a rider who can be with Alberto at the end.

Team Saxo Bank has always had a very strong team spirit, letting every rider has his chance to shine. Now, with Alberto in the team, it seems like the whole team is focused aroudn him. Like Mercatone Uno with Pantani.
Well yes, that’s true. Still, in the team we don’t have any other riders at Alberto's level. Nobody has that. So, I think it’s only normal. I mean look at how it was with Lance and Indurain, who had the whole team build up around them. Right now, the team supports Alberto and with all his wins I think it’s only to be expected. If he someday stops winning, well, then we will work for somebody else [laughing].

How about your own ambitions for the next year?
My primary goal is to arrive at the Tour with Alberto in the best shape possible. Then, in the Vuelta, if Alberto is ready, I will help him again. If he is not there, I will have the chance to fight for a stage win the mountains.

And you will ‘only’ be in races where Alberto participates?
Right now, I don’t know, but normally yes. For example in the Tour, it’s very important for us that we know each other very well. So, it will probably be like that all year. And hey, that suits me perfectly. To be riding with my best friend, well… great!

Last question. You have one more year left on your contract with Bjarne Riis and the team. What are your plans?

Well as you know, I’m staying with Alberto so if he goes so do I, but I can say that right now Alberto is very, very happy with Riis, and I’m happy with the team. If nothing happens we will stay here many, many years.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Tour de France - Overview of the experts' picks



The Tour is now over and I want to thank you all for checking in at the site during the race! The interest has been bigger than I expected, thanks! Let's take a look how well the 4 experts managed to do with their picks:

Thomas Löfkvist
Right winner pick: 7
Winner pick in top3: 2

Mauro Gianetti : 
Right winner pick: 5
Winner pick in top3: 1

David Etxebarria :
Right winner pick: 4
Winner pick in top3: 5

Right winner pick: 4
Winner pick in top3: 3

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The numbers show that Thomas Löfkvist wins this little intern competition in front of David Etxebarria, Laura Meseguer and Mauro Gianetti. Thanks to the 4 experts for participating!

Well, thats all for me for now. It's about time to get some vacation, so I will change my surroundings in Madrid with new ones in Barcelona for a couple of days. See you all later!

Mikkel Condé 

Sunday, July 24, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 21



Thomas Löfkvist : Mark Cavendish

Mauro Gianetti : Mark Cavendish

David Etxebarria : Mark Cavendish

Laura Meseguer : Mark Cavendish

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Bookmaker's favorite : Mark Cavendish


Saturday, July 23, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 20



Thomas Löfkvist : Fabian Cancellara

Mauro Gianetti : Fabian Cancellara

David Etxebarria : Cadel Evans

Laura Meseguer : Cadel Evans

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Bookmaker's favorite : Fabian Cancellara

Friday, July 22, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 19



Thomas Löfkvist : Alberto Contador

Mauro Gianetti : Fränk Schleck

David Etxebarria : Damiano Cunego

Laura Meseguer : Fränk Schleck

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Bookmaker's favorite : Fränk Schleck


Thursday, July 21, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 18



Thomas Löfkvist : Andy Schleck

Mauro Gianetti : pending...

David Etxebarria : Alberto Contador

Laura Meseguer : Alberto Contador

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Bookmaker's favorite : Alberto Contador

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 17



Thomas Löfkvist : Simon Gerrans

Mauro Gianetti : Damiano Cunego

David Etxebarria : Jelle Vanendert

Laura Meseguer : Carlos Barredo

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Bookmaker's favorite : Philippe Gilbert

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 16



Thomas Löfkvist : Edvald Boasson Hagen

Mauro Gianetti : Philippe Gilbert

David Etxebarria : Philippe Gilbert

Laura Meseguer : José Joaquin Rojas

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Bookmaker's favorite : Philippe Gilbert

Sunday, July 17, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 15



Thomas Löfkvist : Mark Cavendish

Mauro Gianetti : Mark Cavendish

David Etxebarria : Mark Cavendish

Laura Meseguer : José Joaquin Rojas

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Bookmaker's favorite : Mark Cavendish

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Interview - Claudio Chiappucci

To spice it up and get a fresh view on this year's Tour de France, here comes an interview the former Italian super climber Claudio Chiappucci who won the polka-dot jersey in both 1991 and 1992 and finish on the final podium in Paris in '91, '92 & '93.

Claudio, we are now half way through the Tour. Who has surprised you the most. Both positively and negatively?
Gilbert is sparking, he’s been like that since the beginning of the season! Very positive, Cunego as well. The others are more or less as we expected them to be. The two Schleck brothers are equally strong but Contador hasn’t lost the Tour yet.



Do you think he [Contador] is still capable of winning the Tour being 3-4 mins down already?
I think he can recover, but he has to find a way to attack his rivals. The problem is that there aren't that many occasions left to do so. I think Voeckler can keep the yellow jersey for one more week, he has a very good team.

Cadel Evans has turned out to be strongest of the favorites in the first half of the race. Do you think he can keep up like that?
Well, I think he has improved a lot. He is strong and he has been at the front of the peloton all the time. He is good on the climbs and in the time trials and I think he deserves to be on the podium based on his performances so far. 

Basso won the Giro last year, Nibali the Vuelta and now both Cunego and Basso are up there with the best in the mountains. How high do you see the chances for an Italian rider on the final podium in Paris?
I think Basso could end up on the podium, but he won’t win the Tour. Both  Evans and Contador have a strong time trial where they can take time on Basso, and then we have the Schleck brothers who can attack him from left and right in the mountains. It won’t be easy.

On Luz Ardiden the biggest surprise – except for Contador losing time – was probably Damiano Cunego staying with favorites. What do you think he can this year?
Cunego is not a top rider for the three week stage races anymore. On Luz Ardiden he did well but it will be hard for him to get close to the podium. Especially because of the time trial. He should target a stage win instead.

Leopard-Trek showed amazing team-strength on Thurday’s stage to Luz Ardiden, but in the end only Fränk Schleck gained a few seconds on the other favorites. What do you think about their tactic? 
They made a great effort and got the group down to only the best ones, but I think they need to pick a team leader. They need to sacrifice one for the other, Fränk never said he was the ‘gregario’.

What about ‘your’ jersey, the polka-dot, who do you think will take it this year?
Samuel Sanchez can win it, I would go for him. Among the others I don’t see a true climber. No one is attacking anymore. You have to attack in order to win this jersey. Maybe the riders nowadays have different targets and don’t want to risk everything on the jersey. It’s a shame…

Last one. It seems like the Italian people (sponsors and tifosi) are waiting for a new fall of champions to fall in love with. Like with you guys in the Giro and the Tour. You arrived after a crisis in Italian cycling and managed to give a great Renaissance. How do you see the future of the Italian cycling right now?
It was different time. When I was a rider I was attacking because I wanted to see what the others were capable of doing, I wanted to give them a chance to defend themselves. Indurain was very strong and attacking him wasn’t easy, but I felt that I had to try every time. You don’t see that nowadays. It’s not easy for the Italians either. The globalization brings new sponsors into the ProTour and Italy doesn’t play that big a role anymore. We only have two ProTour teams and I think it’s going to be difficult for Italy to get new big teams with Italian sponsors. It will be interesting to see what a guy like Daniel Oss and future youngsters can bring to the table. I just hope they won’t crack under the big pressure and expectations. 

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 14



Thomas Löfkvist : Alberto Contador

Mauro Gianetti : Ivan Basso

David Etxebarria : Andy Schleck

Laura Meseguer : Alberto Contador

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Bookmaker's favorite : Alberto Contador

Friday, July 15, 2011

Always follow your instinct!

Thor Hushovd once again amazed the whole cycling world, taking his first individual stage win in this year's Tour de France. Big Thor was the first to attack on Aubisque and even though he was two minutes behind Jeremy Roy at the top of the HC climb, the managed to take it all back on the descent and fly by Roy on the final km.

Non of the 4 experts had put Thor Hushovd down for the win today, but it could very well have been that way! When I talked with Laura Meseguer yesterday about her pick she actually pointed at Thor Hushovd as winner before ending up picking Philippe Gilbert. After the stage she sent out the following tweet:

@Laura_Meseguer: S**** yesterday I changed my pick from Hushovd to Gilbert. alwayslistenthefirstdecision

And just a few minutes later ex-rider David Etxebarria tweeted that he had the same plan, but also ended up picking Gilbert instead of the Norwegian Thunder God.

So remember, always, follow your instinct! ;-)

Thursday, July 14, 2011

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 12



Thomas Löfkvist : Alberto Contador

Mauro Gianetti : Cadel Evans

David Etxebarria : Fränk Schleck

Laura Meseguer : Alberto Contador

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Bookmaker's favorite : Alberto Contador

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Eagerness to perform sends home the favorites

What do Bradley Wiggins, Janez Brajkovic, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Chris Horner, Alexander Vinokourov and for this matter Christophe Kern have in common? For starters they all were listed as big GC hopes for the Tour de France but what’s more important; they all came to the Tour more ready and eager to perform than ever before!

After last year’s catastrophically Tour-performance Bradley Wiggins seemed to be fitter than ever and very determinate to show all his critics that his 4th place in 2009 wasn’t a coincidence. His overall victory in Dauphiné proved he was back on track and must have boosted his moral sky high. The whole team was build around him and he couldn’t wait to show what he was capable of – unfortunately we never got to see it...

Like Bradley Wiggins, Jurgen Van den Broeck was flying in Dauphiné taking an incredible win on the first mountain stage and 4th overall. It looked so easy for Van den Broeck every time it started to go uphill and suddenly only the a spot on the final podium in Paris seemed to be acceptable for the Omega-Lotto leader and his followers. Like Wiggins he was eager to show what he could do in the big mountains and like Wiggins he ended up leaving the Tour after a crash.

Other riders matching this profile are Team Radioshacks duo-leaders Janez Brajkovic and Chris Horner. Brajkovic build his whole 2011 season around the Tour. Nothing else mattered. His impressive win in Dauphiné last year, where he hold off Alberto Contador making it look like a walk in the park, made Bruynell and co. talk about a final top5 for the young Slovenian, if not the podium. Again a massive pressure being put on the rider and again he crashes out. Same goes for Chris Horner. Doing top10 last year, looking out for Lance Armstrong and the rest of the team, Horner was eager to show his own qualities. The very same qualities that made him win Tour of California with his closet rival being team mate Levi Leipheimer – almost 3 minutes ahead of Tom Danielson as third. Horner said before the Tour that he would make “Top5 for sure – if not more!” – well I am sure he would have been up there, but like the others he ended up in a ambulance.

You probably see where I’m going with all this, but let us just take a few more examples. Alexander Vinokourov. Last Tour de France in his life. Ready to do whatever it takes – on the bike – to fulfill his life-long dream and get at least one day in yellow. On stage 8 it looks like it’s about to happen, but the strong head wind knocks Vinokourov out on the last couple of hundred meters. The very next time – and probably the last change to get yellow – Vinokourov ends up in the forest on a slippery downhill section. Was it because the Garmin riders were riding too fast or was it because Vinokourov was too eager to stay in front and try to get the jersey?

Last example for now is Christophe Kern. The big sensation in Dauphiné. Before a heavy time trialist, but after losing 11 kg in the winter season, suddenly a strong climber and gunning for the GC in the Tour. Kern won a stage in Dauphiné and was, if not the strongest, definitely one of the strongest in the race. Those performances made Christophe Kern rethink his Tour de France ambitions and went from “helping out team mate Charteau in the mountains” to “stage win, polka dot jersey and hopefully a good GC”. Like all the others mentioned here, Kern crashed and abandoned the Tour.

So is all this just bad luck? Could it have happened to anyone? Well, it probably could have. But it didn’t. It didn’t happen to Cadel Evans who nearly nobody counted in for the final podium. It didn’t happen to Ivan Basso who’s Tour-ambitions got knocked down a bit after his crash in May on Etna. It didn’t happen to Frank Schleck, a rider who normally crash as much as Cavendish wisn and it didn’t happen to Tony Martin, another rider who many seemed to forget while picking out favorites. I did in fact happen to Alberto Contador – the biggest favorite of them all – but is he out of the Tour? No Sir, he is not.

This little write-together could have been even longer if I got started on Robert Gesink (finally being the team leader in the Tour, going stronger than ever), Levi Leipheimer (winning Tour de Suisse and finally seemed back to former strength) and Andreas Klöden (Winning Paris-Vasco & 2nd in Paris-Nice) but even though they too are in a lot of pain cause of their crashes, they are still in race, fighting to prove me wrong…