Vuelta Preview - Stage 20

Just a few days ago we all thought this would be the stage where the Vuelta would find its final winner. In a way it still is, but definitely not like we expected it to be. Only a total off day or bad luck can rip the red jersey of Alberto Contador's shoulder and I can't see it happen.

Contador will win this year's Vuelta España, like predicted, but the second place is still wide open! Before the stage there are only 46 seconds between Valverde and Purito and even though only the victory seemed to count for Purito I'm sure he will do everything he can to end second instead of third. No disrespect for Alejandro Valverde, but it's no shame to lose a Grand Tour to Alberto Contador. Second place after the Spanish legend is still something you can be proud of.

Therefore I expect Purito to give everything he has left in the tank in order to drop Valverde on Bola del Mundo. So far Purito has taken 55 seconds (without bonus seconds) on Valverde on the previous stages ending with a climb (without taking stage 4 into consideration) but it has never been more than maximum 19 seconds á stage (without bonus seconds) so he really needs to dig deep and probably even win the stage in order to overtake Valverde in the general classification. Not an easy task, but never the less a task I think Purito can manage. Mentally it won't be easy but there are no doubts  that the last climb suits Purito very well with parts of 23% within the last kilometer.

Bola del Mundo - Click for larger view!

A few days ago I thought Purito might let Contador take this stage on home soil near Madrid, but after the epic stage to Fuente Dé the tables have turned. It would be an amazing finish to this Vuelta for Alberto Contador if he wins on Bola del Mundo in the red jersey - and I’m sure he will try hard to do so - but I also  but I think it will be difficult to drop Purito if the Katusha captain can put his mind to take the 2nd place overall instead of winning. No matter what this is a stage you need to watch live!

As you can see I think this will be a fight between the best riders and therefore it's very difficult to pick a joker. I really think Igor Antón will try something on a climb that suits him perfectly but it won't be easy to get away as Rabobank will work hard in order to protect their 6th and 7th place overall. I agreed with Felix than any rider outside of the top3 can be seen as a joker for this stage the only problem is who to pick? I have a feeling Antón has what it takes to pull it off, but I also have a good eye to Sergio Henao. It seems like Team Sky are giving Uran and Henao green light to try own luck as the podium is out of reach for Chris Froome and if the favorite hesitate a bit Sergio Henao could profit with a strong attack.

With my luck the last couple of days (Tiralongo & Valverde on stage 17 and Degenkolb and Matti on stage 19) it will probably be the one I don’t pick who wins. Anyway I’ll take Antón and hope for the best!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Igor Antón

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Thomas de Gendt

Explanation: Belgian all-rounder Thomas de Gendt came into the race with high hopes but so far has just a couple of breaks and a second place to his name. The 25 year old loves these big stages - just look at his track record with the Stelvio and Ciutu Negru - and he also has the polka dot jersey in his sights. A good day could see de Gendt take the stage and become king of the mountains before riding into the sunset on his belated honeymoon. If so, then his new wife will be a lucky girl... But my favourite for the Bola del Mundo showdown is the man I always tipped to win the entire race: Alberto Contador. His form had been consistently high and he's in the ascendency after that win at Fuente De. He also deserves a second stage scalp in a race he has lit up with his constant attacks. That said, I can envisage a situation where the Big Three mark each other out all the way to the summit and Contador gives the win to Purito or Valverde in a magnanimous display of seigneurial largesse.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 11

Some says the Vuelta España first starts for real on Friday, but if it hadn’t already I would say it starts on stage 11. It’s the only individual time trial in the race and I’m sure we will see some important changes in the classification when the day is over.

Knowing the current World Champion, Tony Martin, is in the race it would be natural to pick him as the favorite, but looking at the profile I’m not so sure it will be easy for the German time machine. Of the course’s 39,4 km no less than 10 is uphill followed by a tricky descent the last 16 km. That means that Tony Martin really just have the first 13,4 km to make the difference and I doubt that will be enough with the category 3 climb, Alto Monte Castrove, following right after. Its average gradient is “only” 4,4% but the beginning is very tough with percentages around 7-8 the first three km. Tony Martin tried the course on the rest day and according to Martin himself he was very disappointed of what he saw.

Therefore I think it will be a fight between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. Froome has been outstanding in his recent time trials taking 2nd in the Tour (in front of Fabian Cancellara and only beaten by Bradley Wiggins) and 3rd at the Olympics after Wiggins and Martin. If Froome still has something left in the tank this could be his big chance of taking some time back on Contador, Valverde and especially Purito before the mountains and according to himself the course suits him despite its tricky parts.

Alto Monte Castrove - Category 3 - 10 km / 4,4%

Logic says I should pick Froome as my favorite but I think I’ll go with Alberto Contador instead. While the other riders have only tried out the time trial once or maybe twice, Contador had been riding the course 8 (!!) times before the Vuelta even started. All he has been thinking about during the ban was winning the Vuelta and remember that Contador was actually talking about taking an Olympic medal on the time trial last year before he got banned.

When Bjarne Riis signed him he said he believed he could make Contador improve his time trial skills a lot - a lot he said - and don’t forget Contador has already won time trials in the Tour de France beating Fabian Cancellara. No one is as motivated as Alberto Contador for this time trial and if it stays dry on the tricky descent I think Contador’s first win in this Vuelta will be in Pontevedra.

To be honest I can’t see any other riders than the three already mentioned wining this time trial. A guy like Andrew Talansky showed in Tour de Romandie that he can compete with the elite, when he was only beaten by Wiggins by a few milliseconds and as I have him predicted to end in the Top10 overall I also think he will do well in this time trial. Another guy I know for a fact will give a real try is Thomas De Gendt. The Giro sensation was very disappointed with his performance in the Belgian national championship against the clock and is eager to take revenge in Spain. He has already been out in breaks trying to find his legs and if everything goes perfectly he might be able to get in top3. I doubt it, but hey for a joker he could be a good pick!

Winner pick: Alberto Contador
Joker: Thomas De Gendt

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Andrew Talansky

Explanation: This one is hard to call. I expect it to be a three-way tussle between Alberto Contador, Chris Froome and Tony Martin - probably finishing in that order. With a climb in the middle, this is quite similar to the Tour's first time trial, in which Froome finished second. After so many exertions this summer, Froome must be knackered - and he hasn't looked half as strong as he was on the Tour. Martin would be favourite were this a flat course, but the bump puts him at a disadvantage. The worlds are more likely for the German, who by then should be back to his best. Contador is a bit of a punt but time trialling is one thing you can practice on your own - and he's had six months going solo. The Spaniard to win - by less than seven seconds, putting Froome in red. My wildcard? Andrew Talansky has been quiet so far but there must have been a reason by Jonathan Vaughters made him Garmin's leader. A former youth TT champion, the American would kick-start his Vuelta with an unexpected win.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 6 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Interview - Thomas de Gendt

Thomas De Gendt winning Stage 7 of
Paris-Nice after an impressive solo effort.

Thomas De Gendt took the cycling world by surprise when he ended 3^rd overall in the Giro d'Italia earlier this year. Originally Vuelta España was the Belgian's target this season, but it seems like the Giro podium cost him too much energy in order to repeat the performance in Spain.

Thomas, first of all, congratulation on your marriage and your amazing performance in Giro d’Italia. Now when it’s been some months, have you realized what you actually did back in May?

I haven’t really thought about it. I got a lot of attention from the media and from the other riders and of course a lot of attention from the people in Belgium. I can see in the way that I’m not being allowed to attack much anymore. I tried to attack really hard in Eneco Tour, but even though I was way down in the general classification I was never allowed more than a 100 meters gap. I guess that is the impact of what I did in the Giro.

I know you had been working hard to peak in the Giro this year, but since you never really had been going for the GC in a Grand Tour before it was more like a trial-run for the Vuelta. Do you think you can make another podium in Spain?

I don’t really aim for the GC now. It’s true that I went to the Giro to use it as a trial-run for the Vuelta, but since I was up there in the GC I had to dig deep in the last week. So even though I had the Vuelta as my goal I’ve actually already got my podium spot this year and that cost me a lot of energy. Therefore I don’t know if I will be able to go hard in another Grand Tour this year already. And to be honest, I don’t feel as good right now as I did just before the Giro.

Like Contador you used Eneco Tour as warm-up for the Vuelta. Are you satisfied with the answers you got?

Not at all. The first days were very difficult for me and even though I got stronger during the race I never really felt good. I decided not to finish the race in order to save some energy for the Belgian National Time Trial, but that didn’t went the way I wanted it either. I didn’t feel I had any power in my legs and I’m really disappointed with my performance.

Looking at the route for the Vuelta, what do you think about it? Does it suit you?

I haven’t really checked out any stages, but I know there are some uphill finishes already in the first week. Personally I’m happy that the stages are shorter than in the other Grand Tours. Short but hard, just like I want it. Still, I will just take it day by day and make a status after the first week. As I said the GC isn’t really a goal for me from the beginning so I won’t cry if I’ve already lost a couple of minutes after the first stages.

Alberto Contador is the big favorite for the overall win. Do you think anyone can beat him without any bad luck?

I think we can already name the winner. Contador will win this Vuelta, but I think Froome will be up there too. He might be tired after the Tour, but I expect him to be in the mix. The last guy I see for the podium is Rodriguez. I don’t really think there will be any other riders able to follow these three.

What do you think about the Vacansoleil-DCM team for the race. Anyone specific we should keep an extra eye on?

I think Pim Ligthart. He has a very good sprint after a hard stage and there should be a lot of stages that suits him well in this Vuelta.

Last one. What is most important for you in this Vuelta;  a stage win or Top10 in the GC?

I would say a stage win, but then again it depends on place in the Top10. There is a big difference in being number 4 or being number 9 for example. If a Top10 spot means being 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th I would pick that over winning a stage, but compared to ending 10^th overall I would take the stage win right away.