Tour de France: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

The pure sprinters couldn’t keep up on Stage 2 and their chances are not getting better on Stage 3. Mark Cavendish didn’t get to wear the Yellow Jersey this year and now Omega Pharma Quickstep have to change their focus. It could be a stage for a breakaway to make but most likely it will all come down to the final climb.

The Route

The starts with a category 4 climb right from the beginning. Col de San Bastiano is only 3.4 km long but its average gradient of 4.6 % will make a perfect place for a breakaway to be established. 15 km later, it’s time for the intermediate sprint and with the pure sprinters gone for the stage win, Cavendish and Greipel need to get points here.

There are only 117 km to go from the intermediate sprint and this short stage will be another fast one. Starting on the second climb of the day, there riders face 80 hilly km before the final climb. The hills are not very steep but in high speed and without time to relax they will make a big impact on the peloton.

The Finish

With about 17 km to go it’s time for the final struggle of the day; Col de Marsolino. This category 2 climb is only 3.3 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.3 %. It’s steep near the top and the narrow road will see the favorites fight hard to be in front starting on the descent. Crossing the top, there are 13.5 km to the finishing line and it’s crucial to be in front. The view from the top of Col de Marsolino is absolutely spectacular but it will only be for the fans and maybe the grupetto to admire. The first couple of kilometers of the descent are not easy at all and it will be difficult keeping the front group together.

The view from the top of Col de Marsolino
from the side the riders climb.

Coming down from the climb, the riders turn left with 9 km to go. The following 8.5 km take place in head wind with only one roundabout to overcome. It won’t be easy for a lonely rider to keep the peloton at bay. Still, as we saw on Stage 2; a small group of riders can make it if the peloton hesitates again. There is another roundabout with 500 meters to go and from hereon it’s straight out towards the line - tail wind all the way.

The Favorites

Looking at the profile of the stage, the big favorite has to be Peter Sagan. Cannondale missed out on Stage 2 as they didn’t have a strong enough team to close the gap. Sagan had to start his sprint early and even though he didn’t catch Jan Bakelants, he had no problems keeping the rest behind him. The Slovakian Champion managed to get important points to for the Green Jersey but he didn’t get much closer to the Yellow Jersey. In fact, it will be more than difficult for Sagan to rip the jersey of Bakelants’ shoulder tomorrow. Sagan’s plan was to wear yellow on the team time trial and for that to happen, he needs to drop Bakelants and the rest of the riders in front of him in Calvi. I wouldn’t be surprised if he managed to do it after all but Radioshack have a very strong team to defend the lead. I think Sagan will win the stage and take the Green Jersey but Bakelants will most likely stay in yellow.

The biggest threat to Peter Sagan is probably Michal Kwiatkowski. The Polish Champion is very fast on the line and he will be eager to hold on to his White Jersey. Omega Pharma Quickstep also have Sylvain Chavanel to play and I will be surprised not to see Chavanel attack in the final. He gambled – and lost – on Stage 2 when he didn’t want to close the gap to Bakelants. It would have been a great birthday gift for the French animateur but at least he has another chance on Stage 3. Chavanel shouldn’t have problems getting over the final climb and as a great descender, he may have a chance making it this time.

Another rider who has a very good chance on this stage is Simon Gerrans. The former Australian Champion was leadout man for Daryl Impey on Stage 2. Unfortunately Impey faded towards the line and is now “only” 4^th overall. Gerrans himself moved up to 6^th overall and in my opinion Stage 3 is a lot more suited for Gerrans than Impey. GreenEdge also have Michael Albasini but I think it would make more sense setting up Simon Gerrans in the final sprint. He’s fast and motivated and Gerrans’ success rate has been pretty good this season. He won in Catalunya and Pais Vasco the two days the team went for him and he has started out this Tour in a very strong way.

The Joker:

The final 5 km of the stage.

Radioshack will work hard to defend the Yellow Jersey and with that in mind, I doubt a morning breakaway will make it to the line. The teams with GC contenders also need to save some energy for the team time trial on Tuesday and that could hold back many domestique riders who usually would try on a stage like this. I think Peter Sagan will be very focused on not missing out a third day in a row. Cannondale (Sagan), Omega Pharma Quickstep (Kwiatkowski/Chavanel) and GreenEdge (Gerrans, Albasini & Impey) should be able to work together during the stage and control the race. Surely, some riders will try to get away on the final climb and I expect Pierre Rolland to attack in order to keep his Polka Dot Jersey. His teammate Thomas Voeckler is another good candidate but he can hardly be considered a joker.

As you can probably see, I don’t think the jokers have much chance on this stage. Still, I wouldn’t be fun not to mention one. Therefore, look to Julien El Fares. Sojasun didn’t start out Stage 2 in a very a good way but they still ended up with Julien Simon 3^rd overall anyway. The French wildcard team now need to show their team colors and looking at the stage profile, this could be a good day for Julien El Fares. He can cope with these climbs and he’s semi-fast on the line. El Fares finished 7^th overall in Tour de Luxembourg two weeks ago and he’s clearly in good shape. The Tour will soon reach his home roads - more on that when it happens - but I think this stage is good for him too.

Favorites: Peter Sagan / Simon Gerrans

Joker: Julien El Fares

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 3:

Tour de France: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

We expected chaos, we expected crashes and we expected a bunch sprint. Yet, Stage 1 managed to surprise us. Marcel Kittel took the first Yellow Jersey but it won't be easy for him to keep on Stage 2. It’s a short stage of only 156 km and that means a fast day in the saddle.

The Route

The intermediate sprint is located in Castello Di-Rostino after just 33 km. That means a break most likely won’t get away as early as on Stage 1. The climbs and the finish - more on that later - will make it hard for Mark Cavendish to fight for the win. Therefore, the Manxman needs to win the intermediate sprint in order not to lose terrain in the fight for the Green Jersey.

The first categorized climb starts after 63 km but actually, the road already kicks up 15 km earlier. This is a great place for a breakaway to be established and with three KOM sprints within the next 50 km, many riders will be eager to get away. Euskaltel’s sprinter Juanjo Lobato could try to hang on to the Polka Dot Jersey but I doubt it. The first climb isn’t very steep but the next two both have an average gradient of 6‑7 % and are better suited Lobato’s strong teammates.

There are about 60 km to go from the top of the penultimate climb and after a descent of more than 30 km, there’s only one obstacle left for the riders to overcome before the final.

The Finish

With 13 km to go, the peloton faces Côte du Salario. This little category 3 climb is only 1 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.9 %. The long descent from Col de Vizzavona isn’t very technical and the teams of the pure sprinters will have to push hard in order to come back. I expect most of the sprinters to be in the peloton when Côte du Salario starts. Cannondale and Peter Sagan knows they need to drop Cavendish and Kittel on the climb and they will probably set a high speed early on the stage to make sure Cavendish is already tired reaching the final climb.

The last 10 km of Stage 2 - click for larger view.

The final 10 km takes place alongside the Mediterranean Sea without any difficult corners to tackle. The sprinters dropped on Côte du Salario will have to work hard to come back and even if they manage to, they will have problems again with 2 km to go. Here the road kicks up with about 5 % for 500 meters and if Cannondale and other teams can keep a high speed, I doubt the pure sprinters will make it back.

The Favorites

As you can see, my big favorite is Peter Sagan. He’s not as fast as Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel but on a route like this one, he’s the best. Sagan has no problems overcoming the climbs and if Cavendish isn’t in the bunch, this is a day Sagan can’t afford to miss out. Sagan not only aims to win the Green Jersey again this year, he also wants to wear the Yellow Jersey. The Cannondale team is built up around him with a special focus on the team time trial to keep Peter Sagan in yellow should Stage 2 and 3 go as planned. Therefore, they won’t let a break get too far away. King Sagan wants the Yellow Jersey and Cannondale will do whatever they can to make it happen. The only question is how Sagan's body will respond after his crash on Stage 1. Sagan went down hard and you know it's serious when he doesn't do any stunts crossing the finishing in a small group. The Slovakian Wonderboy will be eager to take revenge and he really needs a good place on this stage if he wants to wear the Yellow Jersey after Stage 3.

One of the few riders who can come close to Peter Sagan is John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano is not all about Marcel Kittel, they also have Degenkolb who won five (!) stages in last year’s Vuelta España. I doubt Kittel can get over the climbs - despite yellow wings - near the front but Degenkolb shouldn't have problems. The strong German went head-to-head with Peter Sagan in Tour de Suisse recently but didn’t really have the speed to pass him in the final. Still, the Tour de France is a different thing and with a long straight out sprint, Degenkolb may have a chance.

It wouldn’t be fair not to mention Matt Goss on a stage like this one. The Australian sprinter won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this year against Sagan, Greipel and Cavendish. Again, it’s important to note the difference between the Italian one-week stage race and Tour de France. The route on Stage 2 favors Matt Goss compared to the pure sprinters and I’m sure GreenEdge will try to set him up again. Personally, I doubt he can beat Peter Sagan but with a perfect leadout from Daryl Impey, it’s definitely not impossible. Another thing is that Daryl Impey finished 11th on Stage 1. That means that if GreenEdge can set him up for a top place - in front of the 10 other riders form Stage 1 - Impey could end up in yellow! That should give the Australian team something to think about...

The Jokers

I could use the joker section to name a few good riders for a breakaway but I honestly can’t see a break making it on this stage. This is a golden opportunity for riders like Sagan and Goss (both with two dedicated teams) to get rid of Cavendish and the others before the final sprint and they need to control the race. Instead, I’d like to point out Tony Gallopin. The young Frenchman is in great shape right now and he was very close in the French Nationals last week when he took the bronze medal. Gallopin is very fast on the line in a reduced group and he shouldn’t have any problems overcoming the climbs. Unfortunately Tony Gallopin also went down in the big crash on Stage 1. He didn't break anything but reports pain in his right arm, back and right hip. If he can cope with the pain this is a good opportunity for him but if not let's look to other jokers.

First one is the new French Champion, Arthur Vichot. He was outstanding in the French Nationals keeping Gallopin and Chavanel behind him and he's also very fast in a reduced group. Nacer Bouhanni is FDJ’s designated sprinter but if he can’t keep up on the hills, I would expect FDJ to try setting up Vichot for the sprint.

Another one who should find this stage appealing is Francesco Gavazzi. While teammates Brajkovic, Lutsenko and Murayev all crashed, Gavazzi somehow managed to stay upright. The Italian rider is fast on the line and he has no problems with these kind of climbs. Gavazzi has been very consistent in Top5 this year and if everything works out for him, he could take his first win of the season in Ajaccio.

Also, look out for Samuel Dumoulin. The little French sprinter took 6th place on Stage 1 and with another top performance; he could very well end up in the yellow jersey after the stage.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Tony Gallopin / Arhur Vichot / Francesco Gavazzi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 2:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

This 8^th stage of Tour de Suisse seems like a good one for a breakaway to make it. The GC favorites will be happy to get a quiet day before the final time trial and for many teams this is the last chance to get a stage win in the race.

The stage is 180.5 km long and we can expect a fast start despite a head win. After just 37 km the riders face the category 1 climb up to the Julierpass. The 6.8 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 % and serve as an excellent place for a breakaway to be established. After reaching the top, the riders head north towards the finish town Bad Ragaz. It takes almost 60 km before the riders are done with the long descent and afterwards it’s flat for another 40 km before reaching the finishing line for the first time. From here, they loop around Bad Ragaz for about 40 km. With 9.1 km to go it’s time for a steep category 3 climb.  It’s only 2.8 km long but has an average gradient of 7.3 %. There is just 6.3 km to go from the top of the climb and the descent is very fast. The last two kilometers towards the finishing line are flat.

There are two scenarios for this stage. In the first, a break gets away on the category 1 climb and makes it all the way. Naturally, the last climb will be a great place to test your fellow escapees and a strong rider with most likely be able to keep his gap if he gets away over the top. In the second scenario, a break gets away but teams like Cannondale, BMC, Saxo-Tinkoff and GreenEdge work together in order to catch them. I think the last climb is too hard for the pure sprinters to stay up front. Riders like Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert, Matti Breschel and Matt Goss seem like much better candidates. Sagan is without a doubt the fastest of these but Gilbert must be eager finally to win in the Rainbow Jersey. If he gets away on the final climb, he will be very difficult to catch. Saxo-Tinkoff have been trying to set up Matti Breschel the last couple of days and without having to work for Roman Kreuziger on this stage, they can focus on the fast Dane. GreenEdge have a couple of riders for a stage like this one. On a good day, Matt Goss is up there but if not, teammate Daryl Impey and Michael Albasini look good.

Albasini is also a good candidate for an early breakaway. He tried to get into the morning break on Stage 7 and this is the last chance for Albasini to get a win on home soil in this year’s Tour de Suisse. Albasini is strong uphill, good downhill and very fast on the line. Another rider for a break is Martin Elmiger. IAM Cycling haven't had much luck in this race so far and they need to finish in a strong way. Elmiger became a father earlier in the race and the Swiss rider will be motivated to hit the right break in order to dedicate a stage win to his newborn daughter Julia.

Favorites: Peter Sagan & Philippe Gilbert

Jokers: Michael Albasini & Martin Elmiger

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

The GC contenders had an easy day on Stage 6 when the peloton decided to let Kolobnev, Grabsch, Hayman and Rast stay away. What could have been a hectic final turned out to be quiet day at the office but now it’s time to fight for the overall classification.

Stage 7 is 208 km long and includes four categorized climbs. The first 120 are rather flat with just a one category 3 climb to overcome but after 130 km the road really starts to kick up. The 6.2 km towards the top of this category 1 climb have an average gradient of 7 % and we can expect BMC and Saxo-Tinkoff to set a high pace. Mathias Frank looks very strong uphill and so does Roman Kreuziger. Personally, I see Kreuziger as the strongest rider in the race right now. Still it’s worth mentioning that Kreuziger is suffering a bit from his crash on stage 3. He hit his shoulder and knee and especially the shoulder has been bothering a bit. If he’s not feeling good, the other teams may try to distance him already on this climb.

The next climb starts after 155 km. This category 4 climb isn’t very steep and it shouldn’t really bring any of the GC riders in difficulty. However, it is important for the favorites to stay near the front since the final climb of the day starts right after the descent. The first part of the climb has an average gradient of just 4 % but it’s gets steeper after the second intermediate sprint. The final 14.3 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 %. The first 3.5 km are the steepest with an average of 10% and if Tejay van Garderen has a good day, he could really rip the race apart here for Mathias Frank.

There are 9.3 km to go from the top of the last climb but the descent isn't very technical. Only the last part with seven hairpin corners from 3 km to 2 km to go. The final 700 meters are flat but two 90° turns will make the run in very difficult. If a small group arrives together, it’s important to be first or second coming out of the last corner with just 300 meters to go.

Peter Sagan was outstanding on the last mountain stage but I doubt he will repeat that effort. The 3.5 km of 10 % on the final climb will most likely split up the peloton significantly and I wouldn’t be surprised if only 10 riders were left after this steep part. I think Tejay Van Garderen will be leading the group at this point and it will be very difficult to break away. 

One of the few riders who can do it is Michele Scarponi. The Italian veteran crashed out of the general classification on Stage 3 and he is now eager to take a win and forget about all his bad luck. There aren’t any bonus seconds on the line in this year’s Tour de Suisse so the other GC contenders won’t have to worry if Scarponi manages to get away on the final climb. Lampre also have Diego Ulissi who - despite a crash on Stage 6 - is in good shape right now. I think they will try something with him and Scarponi on this stage.

I also expect Andy Schleck to make a move. He’s slowly getting into shape and his confidence is coming back too. During Stage 5, he even thought about doing the final uphill sprint for a moment. He attacked from afar in Criterium International and in Tour of California and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to get away already on the category 1 climb starting with 75 km to go. It’s hard to say if Andy Schleck is strong enough to enough to keep a gap on the final climb but since he’s not threat overall, the GC contenders don’t have to chase him down.

As stated, I think this stage is too hard for Peter Sagan to stay in front. Still, if he’s not more than 30-45 seconds after the favorites on the top of the last climb, he could very well catch up on the descent. It all depends on the race situation. If a breakaway seems sure to the take win, Sagan don’t need to waste energy staying up front. However if he’s in play for the stage win, he will probably do whatever he can to win again. Sagan could also be a breakaway candidate…

Bauke Mollema turned out to be the strongest riders uphill on the first mountain stage. It will be interesting to see if he attacks again on this stage in order to gain a little time before the last ITT. On paper, Rui Costa is the best time trialist of the first five in the GC but don’t underestimate Mollema against the clock. Right now Mollema is 1:08 min after Mathias Frank and I think he needs to cut that in half if he wants to win overall. If Mollema is within 40 seconds of the yellow jersey (and that not being Rui Costa) before the final time trial, I think he can go for the win. That means he needs to attack and hopefully we will get another interesting stage finish Friday afternoon.

Before I end this preview, I would like to point out Marcel Wyss. IAM Cycling had to say goodbye to Heinrich Haussler after he crashed on Stage 6 and they are soon running out of stages to win in their home race. Marcel Wyss is 36^th overall, almost nine minutes after Mathias Frank. The other day he attacked to take a few KOM points “just in case”, as he said. This stage is very important for the KOM jersey and I expect Wyss to take part in the morning breakaway. It won’t be easy to keep the peloton at bay all day long but the lack of bonus seconds means the favorites don’t need to go for the stage win.

Favorites: Michele Scarponi & Bauke Mollema

Jokers: Andy Schleck & Marcel Wyss 

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse had a similar stage finish three years ago. Back then Robert Gesink won. In case you forgot, here is the video of stage:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

On paper this stage may look like a good one for a breakaway to make but the final part isn’t as hard as it may seem. The profile shows two small climbs starting with less than 30 km to go but they aren’t very steep.

The first one, a 3 km long category 3 climb, has an average gradient of 6.8 % but with a strong tail wind, the peloton will be able to keep a high speed. Reaching the top there are still 5 km of false flat before the descent starts. The downhill section isn’t very technical and it will be difficult to keep the peloton at bay.

The road starts to kick up again with 14 km to go but the two kilometers towards the sprint aren’t steep at all. The descent only has one tricky hairpin corner and when the riders turn right on Seestrasse, it’s straight out for almost 8 km towards the finishing line. A lonely rider or a small group will have difficulties keeping a gap with a strong cross/head wind alongside Lake Zürich and I think we will see another bunch sprint.

There is a small traffic island just before the road bends right with about 200 meters to go. The turn is not as important as the sharp one on Stage 4 but if you need to be among the first three in order to win.

Once again, it’s hard not to pick Peter Sagan as the favorite. He won’t have any problems on the hills and with a strong team to support him he will be difficult to beat. Sagan didn’t managed to position himself well on Stage 4 and that cost him the win. On Stage 5 he was in the right position but ran out of teammates in the end. Sagan had to start his sprint too early and after two missed opportunities, he must be eager to take revenge now.

It’s also a good finish for a real power sprinter like John Degenkolb. With a head wind the last 8 km it’s important not to hit the front too early and Degenkolb probably has the best leadout train in the race. A couple of years ago Argos-Shimano’s mantra was to get the best leadout train in the world and they are close to succeeding. They didn’t time it well in the beginning of the season but recently they have been looking very strong. It’s true they messed up a bit on Stage, but I still think Degenkolb will be first rider into the last bend. Time will tell if that’s enough to win.

Since this stage is good for a power sprinter, it’s naturally also good for Alexander Kristoff. As mention in the preview for Stage 5, the Norwegian is very strong right now. He made it look easy when he beat Sagan and Démare on Stage 5 and his moral is now sky high. Once again, it’s difficult to pick between the three riders named above. Kristoff’s confidence is high now, Sagan is out for revenge and Degenkolb must be eager to finally show himself. If I have to pick one, I’ll go with Sagan again.

There are many strong sprinters in this race and it’s difficult to pick a joker with a chance to win. My pick this time is youngster Boy Van Poppel. He may not be able to beat the best sprinters in this race but on a good day, he’s up there fighting for podium. Van Poppel took 5^th place on Stage 3 of Tour of California and he seems to be in good shape right now ending 9^th on Stage 5. Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of fast guys in Tour de Suisse but instead of sprinting for each other, they are now focusing on Van Poppel. Grega Bole has been assigned as leadout for Van Poppel and if the young Dutchman gets on the right wheel, he could very well make top5 if not more.

If it a breakaway makes it after all - though I doubt that - look out for Luis León Sanchez. The Spaniard is back after his short suspension and he's already in great shape. He attacked from a far and won the last stage of Belgium Tour last month and he could very well give a go in the final 25 undulating kilometers.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Boy Van Poppel & Luis León Sanchez

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

Peter Sagan probably didn’t read the road book for Stage 4 as he was caught up in the middle of the peloton heading into the last corner. He tried to make up for it but he went the wrong way around and almost crashed against the barrier. He still managed to finish 7th on the stage and I think he is eager for revenge.

Stage 5 ends with two loops on a 26.5 km long circuit. Each loop includes two categorized climbs, both with an average gradient of aprox. 5 %. The climbs are short and they probably won’t make a big selection in the peloton. Still, they will make life hard for the pure sprinters. Jens Voigt almost managed to keep the peloton at bay on Stage 4 and if a group of strong riders gets away on the final loop, it could make things very interesting.

I think this will end in a sprint and contrary to the finish of Stage 4, there aren’t any tricky corners towards the this time. The road book shows a couple of turns in the final three kilometer but it’s really more the road bending a bit than an actual corner. The last 500 meters kick up with 4 % towards the line but after 2.5 km straight out, I don’t think the incline favors Peter Sagan more than anybody else. The five climbs in the last
66 km favor Sagan but a power sprint like this is more in John Degenkolb’s wheelhouse. The German sprinter came to Tour de Suisse after a training camp in Sierra Nevada so he shouldn’t have problems with these category 4 climbs. Degenkolb wasn’t sure how his sprinting legs would respond after training in the mountains but with a 4th place in a finish that didn’t suit him, I see him as one of the big favorites for the win in Leuggern.

Alexander Kristoff is another rider this type of finish is good for. The big Norwegian is getting better every season and he's now hoping to shine in the Tour this summer. Kristoff won three stages in Tour of Norway last month and he also won the peloton’s sprint in GP Gippingen last week. Kristoff now knows some of the climbs and that will definitely help him in the final. In the Tour de France, Kristoff will be left alone to do the sprinting and he doesn’t have a lot of help in Tour de Suisse either. This is a good opportunity for him to show the team that he can cope with the pressure and win on his own.

Looking for a joker, I think we should look to breakaway candidates. Phillipe Gilbert is still gunning for his first victory in the Rainbow Jersey. The most important task for BMC right now is to keep Mathias Frank in yellow but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gilbert was given a free role. He tried a couple of times in Belgium Tour a few weeks ago and again on Stage 2 of this race. Gilbert is one of the best riders on these type of climbs and he’s very fast on the line too. I still doubt a breakaway will succeed but if any rider can make it on a route like this one, it’s Phillipe Gilbert.

It’s difficult to pick a favorite between Sagan, Degenkolb and Kristoff but if I had to pick one, it would be Sagan. Simply because it’s difficult to image him missing out two days in a row.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Joker: Phillipe Gilbert

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Looking at the stage profile and then looking at the start list, this preview could very well consist of just two words; Peter Sagan.

The Slovakian wonderboy won four stages in last year’s Tour de Suisse and despite a steep climb on Stage 3, he still managed to win. Sagan came to the race after two weeks in San Pellegrino where he had been training hard in the mountains. He wasn’t sure how his legs would respond but I’d say his legs are just fine.

Sagan has Lucas Sebastian Haedo as leadout and his faithful helper Moreno Moser to keep the pace high. Moser was an important factor in Sagan’s four stage wins last year and after Sagan ‘let’ him win Strade Bianche earlier this year, Moser won’t mind helping out his teammate.

With riders like Matt Goss, Arnaud Démare, John Degenkolb, Ben Swift, Alexander Kristoff & Tyler Farrar in the race, Sagan isn’t the only favorite for the stage. Still, I think he will be very tough to beat. Sagan is good on the hills and the 3.7 km category 2 climb with just 40 km to go will be in his favor. The climb has an average gradient of 6.2 % and even though the pure sprinters will have time to get back in the pack, they will have to burn extra energy to do so.

The last 20 km are flat and with so many sprinters in the race, I think it’s safe to say a breakaway will have very small chances of succeeding today. One of reasons why I’m picking Sagan and not a strong power-sprinter like Degenkolb is the final run-in towards the line. There is a 90° left turn with just 200 meters to go and I bet the first rider into that corner wins the stage. Nobody handles their bike better than Peter Sagan - just ask Ben Swift - and even though Sagan may not have the fastest top speed, he accelerates quickly out of the corners. Arnaud Démare will probably come close but I doubt he will be able to beat Sagan. 

My joker for the stage win is Heinrich Haussler. IAM Cycling are riding on home soil and his is the most important race of the year for them. Haussler was lucky with the weather conditions in the time trial where he took 3^rd place and I think he make podium again on Stage 4. Haussler is in great shape right now and his moral is high too after he won the final stage of Bayern-Rundfahrt two weeks ago.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Joker: Heinrich Haussler

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 1 Preview & Favorites

The last four years this race has started out with a short time trial and this year is no difference. The venue has changed from Lugano to Quinto but the distance is more or less the same. This 8.1 km time trial isn’t as hilly as the usually one in Lugano and this will favor the specialists.

The first 6 km are flat with only a few corners but the last 2 km include 300 meters of 7% before the descent and the last flat km towards the line.

It’s a good course for Fabian Cancellara but his shape is uncertain at the moment. He won’t be doing the Tour de France this year and therefore he doesn’t need to be in tip-top condition right now. Still, this is his home race and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to take the first yellow jersey in Quinto. Last year Peter Sagan beat Cancellara in the opening prologue and naturally, the Slovakian wonderboy must be named among the contenders for the stage win.

Sagan was great in Tour of California last month where he won two stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins three or four stages in Tour de Suisse again this year. Last year’s prologue favored him with the climb in the middle and even though it's hard to bet against him, I don’t think he will win this stage. Instead look to teammate Moreno Moser. The young Italian was third last year and has high hopes for this stage. Moser will be working hard for Sagan in the coming stages. A win in the opening stage will definitely be good for his moral.

Another strong contender for the win is Alex Rasmussen. The strong Dane won Stage 1 of Bayern-Rundfahrt a couple of weeks ago and seems to be back in good shape after his suspension. This kind of time trials are perfect for Rasmussen and on a good day, he’s fighting for the stage win.

If you are looking for an outsider try Simon Geschke or Cameron Meyer. Geschke ended 5^th overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt after a strong performance in the long time trial and actually a short one should suit the German even better. Cameron Meyer is one of my jokers for the overall classification and he’s always good against the clock. I think this time trial suits him very well and starting early his time will probably stand as one of the best for a very long time.

You can see the starting order for the time trial here.

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Flèche Wallonne: Preview & Favorites

This mini-classic is the most explosive one of the three Ardennes races this week. The steep Mur de Huy always makes for an exciting finish and like the last nine years, I’m sure it will all come down to the final 1300 meters this time.

It’s 10 years ago Igor Astarloa won Flèche Wallone after a big morning break managed to keep the peloton at bay, and even though Roman Kreuziger’s win in Amstel Gold Race could be an indicator of another break making it, I highly doubt it. Phillipe Gilbert is eager to get his first win in the rainbow jersey and together with the Colombia duo Sergio Henao & Nairo Quintana he is the man to beat on Wednesday.

BMC have been very strong lately and Phillipe Gilbert seems to back at his best. He will probably never going to be as strong as in 2011 but without Purito Rodriguez [at this moment Purito isn’t sure he’s able to ride after his crash in Amstel Gold Race], it difficult to pick another winner. No one was able to follow Gilbert on Cauberg last Sunday and even though Mur de Huy is a lot steeper, it still showed the strength of Gilbert right now.

In 2010 Igor Antón and Alberto Contador attacked early on Mur de Huy and got a nice little gap before Cadel Evans and Purito caught them near the top. Evans won the race back then and I think this year’s edition will have some of the same scenario. Sergio Henao and Nairo Quintana don’t stand a chance against Gilbert in ‘sprint’ on the final meters and they both know they need to get away on the steep part in order to win. Both were outstanding in Vuelta Pais Vasco earlier this month, especially on the steep gradients, and I would be surprised if none of the two tries to get away on the parts of 17%. Phillipe Gilbert knows he probably won’t be able to follow the Colombians on these gradients but if he can minimize the gap before the final ‘flat’ (5%) part, I still think he can come back and win the race.

Another strong contender is Alejandro Valverde. Just like at the World Champions last year, he wasn’t very well positioned when Gilbert attacked last Sunday, but this time he managed to close the gap quickly and win the sprint for 2^nd place. I think Liege-Bastogne-Liege is more suited for Valverde and it would make sense for him to pay back Quintana a little for all the hard work the Colombian has done for Valverde the last year. Still, don’t be surprised if Valverde manages to hang onto Gilbert and sprint for the win.

My two personal jokers for Flèche Wallone this year are Igor Antón and Daniel Martin. As mentioned earlier, Igor Antón put in a strong attack in 2010 (ended 4^th) and this year he’s aiming to do the same. His condition has increased significantly the last month or so and with the recent success for Euskaltel, he should be proper motivated to do well. Antón has big ambitions for the last two Ardennes races and if he enters Mur de Huy in a good position, he could very well end up fighting for the win again.

Mur de Huy. 1,3 km / 9,3% avg.
Photo from: climbbybike.com

This is also an important week for Daniel Martin. He was keen on showing his good shape in Amstel Gold Race, but crashed before the final. The Irish climber normally feeds on success and with his impressive overall win in Volta Catalunya, his confident should still be great heading into the last two Ardennes. races Martin reports he’s fine despite his crash last Sunday and I think he will end up doing something great in Flèche Wallone. 

Garmin have Ryder Hesjedal in the race too, but if Daniel Martin is still in front when reaching Mur de Huy, he should be the card to play. Not only does he climb very well he is also very fast on the line. He managed to keep Purito and Quintana behind after a long breakaway when he won the mountain stage in Catalunya and shows he’s not playing around. If an outsider ends up winning Flèche Wallone, like Roman Kreuziger won Amstel Gold Race, I think that outsider will be Daniel Martin.

Peter Sagan deserves to be mention as well, but I doubt he can follow the best on the steep parts. He suffered from cramps in the final of Amstel Gold Race and having never done Mur de Huy before, I don’t think he can win Flèche Wallone. The great shape Sagan showed in Brabantse Pijl can’t just disappear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he either attacks from afar or ends up helping his teammates Damiano Caruso and Moreno Moser.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Podium pick: Sergio Henao

Jokers: Igor Antón & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Amstel Gold Race: Preview & Favorites

The cobblestone Classics are now history and it’s time to focus on the Ardennes. I have named Peter Sagan as my favorite for both Milano - San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen and both times he has ended in second place. Still, it’s very difficult not pick Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Amstel Gold Race.

The race organizers have changed the course for this year’s edition, so instead of finishing on the top of Cauberg, the finish line is now more or less the same as for the World Champions last year. That means we now have a 1,7 km flat part after Cauberg and that really is in Peter Sagan’s favor. Explosive riders like Phillipe Gilbert and Purito Rodriguez might have been able to drop Sagan on Cauberg on a good day, but with nearly two kilometers flat before the line, Sagan has a good chance to come back and win in a sprint. That being said, don’t be surprised if Sagan attacks on Cauberg and soloes away for the win.

Another important route chance this year is the extra lap after the third time over Cauberg with 20 km to go. This opens up the race for attacks before the final and even though I doubt a break will make, the chances are now better than before. The extra lap also makes the race a lot harder, which means we should see a smaller group than usually reaching Cauberg for the last time.

The way I see it, there are two main contenders to Peter Sagan this Sunday. Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans. Gilbert has been getting better and better all year and he showed in Brabantse Pijl that he is ready for the Ardennes Classics. He won the World Champions on this course last year and a podium without Gilbert will be a surprise, the way I see it. Simon Gerrans has been targeting this week all season. He raced in Catalunya and Pais Vasco in order to fine-tune his shape for the Ardennes, and he won a stage in both races. Gerrans is not only strong on the hills, he is also very fast on the line, probably faster than he has ever been. He has a super strong team to support him and Gerrans is my personal favorite to win Amstel Gold Race, should Sagan miss out.

Other strong candidates for a podium spot are Alejandro Valverde and Damiano Cunego. Valverde had to skip Amorebieta last Saturday because of a cold, but he is still confident about his chances this Sunday. I picked Valverde to win the Rainbow jersey last year on this course and even though he only took 3^rd place, he did show that he is capable of doing great on this finish. Valverde has been very strong this year and if he is ready again after his cold, he should be among the riders fighting for the win. The same goes for Damiano Cunego. He was in a perfect position last year, but crashed in the final on Cauberg just as he was launching his attack. Cunego is now eager to get revenge and even though he wasn’t great in Pais Vasco, only a puncture on the final time trial kept him out of Top10 overal. The Ardennes Classics are a big goal for Cunego this year and I think he will be up there in the final.

Last year’s winner, Enrico Gasparotto, is naturally keen on repeating his win but unfortunately, he crashed into a truck while training on Thursday. Also, the new finish isn’t great for Gasparotto, so I highly doubt that he will be able to win again this year.

Team Blanco have two very good cards to play in Bauke Mollema and Tom-Jelte Slagter, but they haven’t had the best lead-up either. Mollema had to skip Pais Vasco and stay in bed sick and even though he is better now, I still think he will be targeting Liege-Bastogne-Liege instead of Amstel. That would mean Tom-Jelte Slagter now has a chance of showing his great potential, in a race that is almost tailor-made for him, but like Gasparotto, Slagter too crashed while training. Hopefully, Slagter will be ready to fight Sunday, but if he’s not 100%, it won’t be easy to compete against Sagan, Gilbert, Gerrans etc.

Like always, I have a joker too; Angel Vicioso. Katusha have an extremely strong team for the Ardennes Classics with Purito, Dani Moreno, Kolobnev, Spilak & Caruso, but I have a feeling Vicioso will end up being the best-placed rider for the Russian team. Despite the controversy from Operación Puerto, Vicioso now says he is back at his old level and I know he has big plans for the Ardennes. He took 3^rd place of the first two stages in Pais Vasco and worked hard for Spilak and Caruso in the rest of the race before abandoning in order to get ready for this week. Vicioso probably doesn’t have the kick to stay with the best up Cauberg, but if it comes back together on the last two kilometers, he is fast enough to take a podium spot on a good day.

Other interesting names are Marco Marcato and Gianni Meersman. Marcato was out for almost a month because of a knee injury, but he has shown good signs the latest races. In Brabantse Pijl he put in some strong attacks on the hills and with his fast finish, he’s one to keep an eye on for a breakaway in the final. Meersman was great in Catalunya with two stage wins but he had to skip Pais Vasco due to stomach problems. Now he’s feeling better though and after training in the sun in Calpe for the last weeks, Meersman is now ready for Sunday.

Quickstep haven’t been lucky in the Classics so far, but maybe their luck will chance this Sunday on the course they won the World Champion Team Time Trial. If not Meersman, they also have a strong outsider in Peter Velits, who too is very fast on the line and good on the hills. Velits took third place on a Tour de France stage with a similar finish last year and he showed to be in good shape in Pais Vasco. Look out for him!

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Podium picks: Phillipe Gilbert & Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Angel Vicioso, Gianni Meersman & Peter Velits

For live race coverage check out steephill.tv

Another joker today: In great shape, good uphill, semi-fast on the line, team leader and yet no one talks about him...Roman Kreuziger! #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Look out for the guy with the cap on the left side. Great shape and good candidate for an attack in the final. twitter.com/TeamSaxoTinkof… #AGR

— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Ronde van Vlaanderen - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the second big one day race of the season, and just like last time (Milano - San Remo) my favorite is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian wonderboy has been outstanding the last month or so, and he showed in Gent-Wevelgem that he also has what it takes to go solo in the final and finish it off.

The new racecourse, introduced last year, means no more Kapelmuur but instead three times on Oude Kwaremont followed by and Paterberg. The last time on the two hills starts with 18 km to go and last year it was all back together at this point. I would imagine Omega Pharma Quickstep to have one of their outsiders up the road when it’s time for Oude Kwaremont, but at the top I expect the favorite to be together in front. Fabian Cancellara used this hill to get away when he won E3 and I would imagine him to put the Swiss hammer down again here this Sunday.

Peter Sagan ran out of power on Oude Kwaremont last year when he hit the front of the peloton trying to chase down Ballan, but I’m sure he has learned from his mistake. Sagan couldn’t followed Pozzato’s move with Boonen on the false flat, but on Paterberg he kicked hard, went away from the chase group and almost managed to close the gap. I expect Sagan to be in the front group when starting on Paterberg and I doubt anyone will be able to follow him if he kicks like that again this year. Fabian Cancellara is probably the only one able to catch up with Sagan on the final 13 km towards the finishing line, but I can’t see him beat Sagan in a sprint or drop him on the way.

Tom Boonen hasn’t been as strong as last year after his recent crashes and even if he’s able to follow Cancellara and Sagan, he still lack the speed to beat the Slovakian in a sprint. Luckily, Quickstep have a couple of other strong cards to play. Niki Terpstra and Sylvain Chavanel have been showing great shape the last couple of months and you can be certain that both will try their luck.                 

It’s also important to mention Team Sky, when pointing out potential winners. Their tactic of skipping Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and train together on Tenerife instead hasn’t really paid off yet, but it’s also important to remember that the coming races are the ones they have been targeting. I think Geraint Thomas will be on top of his game this Sunday and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to get himself in the front group after Paterberg. Some may think the steep percentages aren’t for Thomas, but don’t forget he dropped the whole peloton on 17% in Tour Down Under earlier this year. Ronde van Vlaanderen is his first big target of the season and together with teammates Edvald Boasson Hagen and Ian Stannard, Team Sky have strong team for Sunday.

Looking at a few jokers, let’s start with Heinrich Haussler. So far it hasn’t worked out for Haussler this spring, but he showed in Gent-Wevelgem to be in great shape. Haussler says that he has never been climbing better than right now, and if he manages to position himself up front when hitting Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg for the last time, he should be able to fight for the podium.

Another good outsider is Luca Paolini. The Italian veteran seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he knows how to ride these races. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblaad after a sneaky move in the final and took second place after Boonen in the peloton’s sprint in E3. Last year Paolini almost closed the gap to the front trio after Oude Kwaremont and even though he isn’t as explosive as Sagan, he still has enough experience to know when to open up and when to save the energy. I doubt Luca Paolini will win Ronde van Vlaanderen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends on the podium.

If you are looking for a super-super joker, look to Zdenek Stybar. He’s only ranked fourth in the Quickstep team for this race, but he is very strong on the hills right now. I would expect him to be in the moves with about 50 km to go and in case the other Quickstep riders strike out, Stybar could the man for a surprising result.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Heinrich Haussler / Luca Paolini / Zdenek Stybar

For live race coverage, as always, go to steephill.tv

Pain & Cheer: Milano-San Remo photos

Sunday's Milano-San Remo will forever be remembered, especially by the riders taking part in the race. Of the 200 starting riders, only 135 finished. Italian photographer Davide Calabresi took the following photos during the challenging weather conditions.

The look in Matteo Montaguti's and Fabian Wegmann's eyes tell the same story about the pain the riders felt on the bike today. In the end Gerald Ciolek gave MTN-Qhubeka the best Milano-San Remo debut possible and it's easy to see Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara had hoped for a different result.

You see more photos by Davide Calabresi from Milano - San Remo at his site by clicking here.

Milano - San Remo: Preview and Favorites

The added s on 'favorites' in the title may be stretching it a bit, because there is only one true favorite for this race; Peter Sagan. Yes, there are many riders with a good chance of a great result, but there is only one top favorite.

Matt Goss won Milano - San Remo in 2011 and last year his fellow countryman Simon Gerrans crossed the line first. Both are in the race again Sunday, but don’t be surprised if a third Australian ends as best rider from Down Under this time - more on that later.

The last two years, we have seen a break on Poggio make it to the end and each time with Fabian Cancellara taking second place. Last year Cancellara, singlehandedly, made sure the break of three didn’t get caught, but normally you need a group of minimum 5-6 riders in order to stay clear. It also depends on the wind. Naturally, a strong head wind minimizes a break’s chances of winning the race. Regardless of the wind, we will see a lot of movement on Poggio though. Every rider without a fast finish wants to get clear of the bunch and with Peter Sagan in such good shape; even fast guys like Filippo Pozzato and Phillipe Gilbert don’t want to take their chances.

Normally the strong riders’ teams set a high pace on the climbs in order to drop the pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, but knowing Peter Sagan can stay with the best uphill and still win in a sprint, they now need to attack as well. I think this will eliminate the sprinters’ chances this year and I will be very surprised to see a pure sprinter take the win on Sunday.

The big question is how Sagan will do the race. Will he go with the attacks on Poggio or gamble and wait for a sprint in a reduced peloton? Personally, I don’t think Sagan will respond until very near the top of Poggio. He is one of the best on the descents and even if he’s a few seconds behind on the top, he can still join the break on the descent. Of course, Sagan will only attack if it’s a group of strong contenders up front or if some of the other candidates like Gilbert or Pozzato attack near the top.

The final 30 km of Milano - San Remo includes the two climbs Cipressa and Poggio. 

It’s difficult to paint a scenario but I would like to give a go anyway. I’m not saying this is how is going to go down Sunday afternoon, but it might be. If nothing else, you’ll now have someone to point your finger at for being wrong. Here we go:

Update: When I wrote this preview last Monday, Rinaldo Nocentini was still expected to start. He has now decided to skip Milano - San Remo and target Volta Catalunya instead. Therefore, replace his name with Andrey Amador, when you read the following:

Yoann Offredo attacks early on Poggio. Rinaldo Nocentini catches up with him. Later in-shape Mauro Santambrogio puts in a strong attack and joins the duo. The three riders cross the top of Poggio first but right behind them are Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert and Filippo Pozzato. The chasing trio catch the break on the descent and the six guys get a gap of about 20 seconds. Everybody is looking at Sagan, hesitating to work and Offredo gives it another go. Nocentini closes the gap. Gilbert attacks, Sagan after him. The break is back together; time for the sprint. Gilbert opens, but Sagan wins. Pozzato takes second place and Gilbert third. The rest of the peloton cross the line 15-20 seconds down and Heinrich Haussler wins the sprint - there’s your Australian. This little scenario leaves us with the following top10:

1. Peter Sagan

2. Filippo Pozzato

3. Philippe Gilbert

4. Rinaldo Nocentini Andrey Amador

5. Mauro Santambrogio

6. Yoann Offredo

---

7. Heinrich Haussler

8. Thor Hushovd

9. Gerald Ciolek

10. Daniele Bennati

Of course, there are tons of different scenarios but if I had to pick one, that would be it. There a lot of riders able to do something great in this race, but there can only be one winner. Vincenzo Nibali, Fabian Cancellara and Matt Goss all seem to be in very good shape right now, but I keep on coming back to Peter Sagan when I think of a favorite.

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Podium: Filippo Pozzato / Phillipe Gilbert

Jokers: Mauro Santambrogio / Rinaldo Nocentini / Yoann Offredo

For live coverage of the race check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6 Preview

Chris Froome is the new race leader and it will require something extra from the other favorites to rip the blue jersey of his shoulders. On paper, this may not look like a difficult stage, but I can assure you it is. The two loops of 90 km and one of 28 km around Porto Sant'Elpidio take the riders on a real rollercoaster ride. It’s up and down all day and when it’s up, it’s steep! The climbs aren’t very long but they all have gradients of 10% all the way up to 27%.

Team Sky say they are expecting attacks from everyone on this stage and I would be surprised if not. It will be extremely difficult - even for Team Sky - to control the peloton on these steep hills and the technical descents and narrow roads provide excellent opportunities for riders to attack. The last loop of 28 km includes two small and steep climbs with the top of the last one just 10 km from the line. It’s followed by a very technical descent and only the last 4 km towards the line are really flat. There is a tricky left-right curve with about 1800 meters to go before the final 1500 meters straight out on 7,5 meters wide road.

The Santa Lucia climb is the last
struggle before the finishing line.

I think Team Sky would be happy to let a break get away in the morning and stay away too. Froome doesn’t want any of his competitors to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line so if a break could fight it out between them, Sky would be happy. Still, that doesn’t mean the favorites won’t give a go - especially on the last loop. Sant'Elpidio a Mare is 6,3 km in total - including a 1,5 km descent in the middle - but the last 400 meters have an average gradient of 20% - last 50 meters up to 27%. There is only 6 km from the top of Sant'Elpidio a Mare to the next climb, Santa Lucia, starts. The climb itself is only 1,5 km but has an average gradient of 8,2% and 16% towards the top.

Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali both need to take back 20 seconds on Chris Froome and you can be sure they both want to try on these climbs. Nibali is one of the best riders on the downhill sections and even if he doesn’t manage to drop Froome uphill, he will probably try again downhill.

Astana and Saxo-Tinkoff would like to keep this together and fight for the stage win and the bonus seconds, but it won’t be easy. It’s the last chance for most of the riders to get a result and the expected rain won’t help controlling it either. Strong riders with a fast finish like Tom-Jelte Slagter, Eros Capecchi, Giovanni Visconti, Moreno Moser, Lars Boom and Greg Van Avermaet are all out of the GC and I would expect a couple of these to make it into a winning break. And don’t forget Peter Sagan. He doesn’t seem to be 100% again after his sickness but he’s also a rider capable of winning even when he’s just on 80 or 90%.

I’ve already picked Moreno Moser as my joker twice during this TIrreno-Adriatico and I’ll give him one last chance. You can’t really talk about a favorite for a stage like this one, but of course if Peter Sagan is the man to beat, should he be in the front group in the final. Sunday Tom-Jelte Slagter had to let go of his overall lead in the World Tour standing and I think he is eager to take it back from Richie Porte. He is fast on the line and good on these kind of hills too. Bauke Mollema showed the way for Blanco when he took second place after Purito in Chieti and Slagter could top that one in Porto Sant'Elpidio.

And no; I don’t think the sprinters will be able to stay in front when the GC is this close and the climbs are this steep.

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter & Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 5 Preview

Team Sky are in a league of their own. Especially with a strong head wind on the climbs. They seem unbeatable this year on mountain top finishes, so if you want to get them, you need a powerful kick and some steep percentages. Luckily for the spectators, that is exactly what we will see on this stage. The steep finish in Chieti has quickly turned into a classic Tirreno finish and it will be difficult for Team Sky to control the pack with gradients up to 19%.

Race leader Michal Kwiatkowski continues to perform on a high level this year and if the other favorites want to fight for the overall win, they need to drop him in Chieti. Kwiatkowski is very strong against the clock but on the steep parts, he has his limitations. 

Peter Sagan won this stage last year but it won’t be easy to repeat that win this time. The race organizers have made the finish even more demanding with the inclusion of Passo Lanciano (11.3 km at 8,6%) just 40 km from the line.  Sagan is great on the descents but if Team Sky set a furious pace uphill like on Prati di Tivo, he won’t be in the mix.

Final steep kilometers in Chieti.
Click for larger view.

The last 7 km see the riders tackle two steep parts separated by a 2,5 km descent. Gradients of 19% on the final hill provide an excellent chance for explosive riders to get a gap before the last, tricky, and flat kilometer towards the line. I know Purito didn’t live up to the expectations on Prati di Tivo, but I won’t hesitate picking him as my favorite again. Purito had problems on Prati di Tivo last year too and if he really is in better shape this year - as he states – he’ll win this stage.

The steep part ends with one kilometer to go and this is a great time to counter if the front group stops a little. Last year Vincenzo Nibali got away on the final 500 meters, but was overtaken by teammate Peter Sagan. Not a very wise tactical decision by Sagan who had to apologize to Nibali afterwards. Nibali wants revenge and if Purito doesn’t take this stage, I think Nibali is the best pick. He knows the final very well and he will be extremely difficult to catch if he manages to put in a late attack like last year.

Originally, I would have picked Mauro Santambrogio as joker for this stage but after his amazing performance on Prati di Tivo, I guess he can’t really be seen as a ‘joker’ anymroe. Same goes for Wout Poels who showed to be back on a great level after his horrible crash in the Tour last year. I think both will be up there in the final, but none of them really fit the joker category. Instead I’ll say Moreno Moser. The young Italian came to Tirreno-Adriatico aiming at the GC, but couldn’t keep up on Prati di Tivo. Moser now has to look for stage wins and stage 5 and 6 seems like good options for him. If he manages to stay near the front on the last steep part, he could profit from an strong attack just as it evens out with one kilometer to go. It won’t be easy, but hey; that’s why it’s called a joker.

One last thing. If the favorites don’t attack on Passo Lanciano and Peter Sagan stays in front over this climb, he’ll most likely end up winning the stage. I hope Nibali and Contador will try something far out, but in case they don’t, put your money on the Slovakian wonder boy. I can only pick one winner and even though all three (Purito, Nibali and Sagan) look good to me, I have to stick with my original idea and say Purito.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.