Ronde van Vlaanderen - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the second big one day race of the season, and just like last time (Milano - San Remo) my favorite is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian wonderboy has been outstanding the last month or so, and he showed in Gent-Wevelgem that he also has what it takes to go solo in the final and finish it off.

The new racecourse, introduced last year, means no more Kapelmuur but instead three times on Oude Kwaremont followed by and Paterberg. The last time on the two hills starts with 18 km to go and last year it was all back together at this point. I would imagine Omega Pharma Quickstep to have one of their outsiders up the road when it’s time for Oude Kwaremont, but at the top I expect the favorite to be together in front. Fabian Cancellara used this hill to get away when he won E3 and I would imagine him to put the Swiss hammer down again here this Sunday.

Peter Sagan ran out of power on Oude Kwaremont last year when he hit the front of the peloton trying to chase down Ballan, but I’m sure he has learned from his mistake. Sagan couldn’t followed Pozzato’s move with Boonen on the false flat, but on Paterberg he kicked hard, went away from the chase group and almost managed to close the gap. I expect Sagan to be in the front group when starting on Paterberg and I doubt anyone will be able to follow him if he kicks like that again this year. Fabian Cancellara is probably the only one able to catch up with Sagan on the final 13 km towards the finishing line, but I can’t see him beat Sagan in a sprint or drop him on the way.

Tom Boonen hasn’t been as strong as last year after his recent crashes and even if he’s able to follow Cancellara and Sagan, he still lack the speed to beat the Slovakian in a sprint. Luckily, Quickstep have a couple of other strong cards to play. Niki Terpstra and Sylvain Chavanel have been showing great shape the last couple of months and you can be certain that both will try their luck.                 

It’s also important to mention Team Sky, when pointing out potential winners. Their tactic of skipping Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and train together on Tenerife instead hasn’t really paid off yet, but it’s also important to remember that the coming races are the ones they have been targeting. I think Geraint Thomas will be on top of his game this Sunday and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to get himself in the front group after Paterberg. Some may think the steep percentages aren’t for Thomas, but don’t forget he dropped the whole peloton on 17% in Tour Down Under earlier this year. Ronde van Vlaanderen is his first big target of the season and together with teammates Edvald Boasson Hagen and Ian Stannard, Team Sky have strong team for Sunday.

Looking at a few jokers, let’s start with Heinrich Haussler. So far it hasn’t worked out for Haussler this spring, but he showed in Gent-Wevelgem to be in great shape. Haussler says that he has never been climbing better than right now, and if he manages to position himself up front when hitting Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg for the last time, he should be able to fight for the podium.

Another good outsider is Luca Paolini. The Italian veteran seems to be in the shape of his life right now and he knows how to ride these races. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblaad after a sneaky move in the final and took second place after Boonen in the peloton’s sprint in E3. Last year Paolini almost closed the gap to the front trio after Oude Kwaremont and even though he isn’t as explosive as Sagan, he still has enough experience to know when to open up and when to save the energy. I doubt Luca Paolini will win Ronde van Vlaanderen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends on the podium.

If you are looking for a super-super joker, look to Zdenek Stybar. He’s only ranked fourth in the Quickstep team for this race, but he is very strong on the hills right now. I would expect him to be in the moves with about 50 km to go and in case the other Quickstep riders strike out, Stybar could the man for a surprising result.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Heinrich Haussler / Luca Paolini / Zdenek Stybar

For live race coverage, as always, go to steephill.tv

Criterium International: Preview and Favorites

If Paris-Nice is a mini Tour de France, this race is a mini-mini Tour de France. We have a sprint stage, a time trial and an uphill finish, and it’s all within two days.

The first stage is a same one as last year - hopefully without all the crashes in the final - but the following time trial is a little bit different. It has more turns, it’s 500 meters longer and final km is the same one as on stage 1. The time differences won’t be big and even though you lose 10 seconds here, you still have a chance of getting it back on Sunday’s big mountain stage. Especially because there are 10 bonus seconds to the winner on Col de l’Ospedale.

Last year, the final stage had a tough beginning with four climbs within the first 80 km, followed by a long flat section before the final climb. This year, it’s the other way around. The first 50 km are “flat” - it’s always up and down on Corsica - and then we have five categorized climbs on the menu before Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%).

Team Sky bring a very strong team to the race and there is no doubt about who the big favorite is. Chris Froome missed out on the overall win in Tirreno-Adriatico and without Alberto Contador (who is out due a flu), Froome now has the perfect opportunity to take revenge. Criterium International will also be Chris Froome’s first race after his engagement to Michelle Cound, and what better way of celebrating than an win? 

To help him achieve this, Froome can count on support from Paris-Nice winner Richie Porte and in-form Vasil Kiryienka and Kanstantin Siutsou. Youngester Joshua Edmondson (7^th on the mountain stage in Volta Algarve) is also here to help Froome. I think that Team Sky will start their mountain train on stage 3 and - as usually - simply wait for the other riders to drop out the back one by one. The steepest part of Col de l’Ospedale is with 2 km to go and this would be a perfect place for Chris Froome to put in a strong attack and take time on his rivals. Pretty much like Richie Porte did in Paris-Nice.

The final stage of Criterium International ending on Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%). 

Looking at the other contenders for the general classification, BMC have two riders with a good chance of a podium spot; Tejay van Garderen and last year’s winner Cadel Evans. TJ was strong in Paris-Nice (ended 4^th overall) and has set Criterium International as his next target. Cadel Evans wasn’t really on top of his game in Tirreno-Adriatico but he showed in Tour of Oman that he is already very strong. BMC will probably try to get a good overall result with both TJ and Evans, but I think Evans is their best shot. Also, whoever ends up in a supporting role here, will have some goodwill for the Tour de France, when BMC have to pick a designated leader.

Update: Cadel Evans has now told letour.fr that TJ is the team leader for BMC in this race. Therefore, expect TJ to take podium instead of Evans. 

Like TJ, also Andrew Talansky and Jean-Christophe Peraud did very well in Paris-Nice (ending 2^nd and 3^rd overall), and with a time trial and a mountain stage, both should be up there again in Criterium International. Especially Talansky will be eager to take revenge after a poor tactical decision on La Montagne de Lure cost him the chance of winning overall.

My personal outsider is Rein Taaramae. He was originally set to peak in Paris-Nice, but got sick in February and decided to work for Dani Navarro instead. Now Taaramae is showing promising shape and after his 3^rd place in Cholet - Pays De Loire last Sunday, he’s now ready to take on Froome and the other favorites in Criterium International. Taaramae is strong against the clock and Col de l’Ospedale should suit him just fine too. He has Jerome Coppel to help him and I would be very surprised not see Taaramae in the overall top10 when the race is over.

Winner pick: Chris Froome
Podium pick: Cadel Evans Tejay van Garderen

Joker: Rein Taaramae

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Milano - San Remo: Preview and Favorites

The added s on 'favorites' in the title may be stretching it a bit, because there is only one true favorite for this race; Peter Sagan. Yes, there are many riders with a good chance of a great result, but there is only one top favorite.

Matt Goss won Milano - San Remo in 2011 and last year his fellow countryman Simon Gerrans crossed the line first. Both are in the race again Sunday, but don’t be surprised if a third Australian ends as best rider from Down Under this time - more on that later.

The last two years, we have seen a break on Poggio make it to the end and each time with Fabian Cancellara taking second place. Last year Cancellara, singlehandedly, made sure the break of three didn’t get caught, but normally you need a group of minimum 5-6 riders in order to stay clear. It also depends on the wind. Naturally, a strong head wind minimizes a break’s chances of winning the race. Regardless of the wind, we will see a lot of movement on Poggio though. Every rider without a fast finish wants to get clear of the bunch and with Peter Sagan in such good shape; even fast guys like Filippo Pozzato and Phillipe Gilbert don’t want to take their chances.

Normally the strong riders’ teams set a high pace on the climbs in order to drop the pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, but knowing Peter Sagan can stay with the best uphill and still win in a sprint, they now need to attack as well. I think this will eliminate the sprinters’ chances this year and I will be very surprised to see a pure sprinter take the win on Sunday.

The big question is how Sagan will do the race. Will he go with the attacks on Poggio or gamble and wait for a sprint in a reduced peloton? Personally, I don’t think Sagan will respond until very near the top of Poggio. He is one of the best on the descents and even if he’s a few seconds behind on the top, he can still join the break on the descent. Of course, Sagan will only attack if it’s a group of strong contenders up front or if some of the other candidates like Gilbert or Pozzato attack near the top.

The final 30 km of Milano - San Remo includes the two climbs Cipressa and Poggio. 

It’s difficult to paint a scenario but I would like to give a go anyway. I’m not saying this is how is going to go down Sunday afternoon, but it might be. If nothing else, you’ll now have someone to point your finger at for being wrong. Here we go:

Update: When I wrote this preview last Monday, Rinaldo Nocentini was still expected to start. He has now decided to skip Milano - San Remo and target Volta Catalunya instead. Therefore, replace his name with Andrey Amador, when you read the following:

Yoann Offredo attacks early on Poggio. Rinaldo Nocentini catches up with him. Later in-shape Mauro Santambrogio puts in a strong attack and joins the duo. The three riders cross the top of Poggio first but right behind them are Peter Sagan, Philippe Gilbert and Filippo Pozzato. The chasing trio catch the break on the descent and the six guys get a gap of about 20 seconds. Everybody is looking at Sagan, hesitating to work and Offredo gives it another go. Nocentini closes the gap. Gilbert attacks, Sagan after him. The break is back together; time for the sprint. Gilbert opens, but Sagan wins. Pozzato takes second place and Gilbert third. The rest of the peloton cross the line 15-20 seconds down and Heinrich Haussler wins the sprint - there’s your Australian. This little scenario leaves us with the following top10:

1. Peter Sagan

2. Filippo Pozzato

3. Philippe Gilbert

4. Rinaldo Nocentini Andrey Amador

5. Mauro Santambrogio

6. Yoann Offredo

---

7. Heinrich Haussler

8. Thor Hushovd

9. Gerald Ciolek

10. Daniele Bennati

Of course, there are tons of different scenarios but if I had to pick one, that would be it. There a lot of riders able to do something great in this race, but there can only be one winner. Vincenzo Nibali, Fabian Cancellara and Matt Goss all seem to be in very good shape right now, but I keep on coming back to Peter Sagan when I think of a favorite.

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Podium: Filippo Pozzato / Phillipe Gilbert

Jokers: Mauro Santambrogio / Rinaldo Nocentini / Yoann Offredo

For live coverage of the race check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 7 Preview

For the fourth day in a row, we will have a new rider in the blue leader’s jersey. Vincenzo Nibali attacked exactly where everybody expected him to do so, but still no one - except for Purito and Sagan - could keep up with him. Nibali now leads overall with 34 seconds down to Chris Froome and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win Tirreno-Adriatico for the second time in a row.

This time trial is the same as last year and I doubt even Chris Froome can take back more than half a minute on Vincenzo Nibali in just 9,2 km. Nibali has been working very hard on improving his time trial skills and with a new bike and new skin suit he could even end up surprising quite a few on this stage.

Purito is after two good stages now third overall. He is 11 seconds in front of Contador and 21 seconds in front of Kwiatkowski. Once again, his chances of reaching the final podium depend on his time trial. In January, he said he had improved a lot already and now is really the time to show it. It will be more than difficult to keep Contador - and especially Kwiatkowski - behind him but personally, I hope he will manage.

Only 4 corners to tackle during the 9,2 km.
Click for larger view.

Originally, I had Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin as my two big favorites for the stage, but both put in quite an effort on stage 6. Cancellara was in the morning break and Tony Martin took a big turn for Kwiatkowski in order to close the gap. Still, other candidates like Taylor Phinney and Svein Tuft aren’t in the race anymore, so I think we’re back to where we started. 

Tony Martin changed his race schedule (from Paris-Nice to Tirreno-Adriatico) in order to help his team win the opening TTT and then win this stage himself. He managed to win the first one and the chances are quite good he will to win this one too. 

Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom would have been two good jokers for this stage but since both of them were in the big break on stage 6, I’ll look to Movistar to find my jokers. Jonathan Castroviejo started out Tirreno-Adriatico with GC ambitions, but lost time in the last two stages. He is right now 14^th overall but without a chance of making top10. Castroviejo is an excellent time trialist and he’s especially good on these short distances. He will be one to look out for. The same goes for his teammate Alex Dowsett. He is the British national champion and without him, Movistar probably wouldn’t have taken second place in the opening team time trial. Normally we see surprises in the final time trial in a stage race and I think Alex Dowsett could be that surprise.

Winnerpick: Tony Martin

Jokers: Alex Dowsett & Jonathan Castroviejo

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 5 Preview

Team Sky are in a league of their own. Especially with a strong head wind on the climbs. They seem unbeatable this year on mountain top finishes, so if you want to get them, you need a powerful kick and some steep percentages. Luckily for the spectators, that is exactly what we will see on this stage. The steep finish in Chieti has quickly turned into a classic Tirreno finish and it will be difficult for Team Sky to control the pack with gradients up to 19%.

Race leader Michal Kwiatkowski continues to perform on a high level this year and if the other favorites want to fight for the overall win, they need to drop him in Chieti. Kwiatkowski is very strong against the clock but on the steep parts, he has his limitations. 

Peter Sagan won this stage last year but it won’t be easy to repeat that win this time. The race organizers have made the finish even more demanding with the inclusion of Passo Lanciano (11.3 km at 8,6%) just 40 km from the line.  Sagan is great on the descents but if Team Sky set a furious pace uphill like on Prati di Tivo, he won’t be in the mix.

Final steep kilometers in Chieti.
Click for larger view.

The last 7 km see the riders tackle two steep parts separated by a 2,5 km descent. Gradients of 19% on the final hill provide an excellent chance for explosive riders to get a gap before the last, tricky, and flat kilometer towards the line. I know Purito didn’t live up to the expectations on Prati di Tivo, but I won’t hesitate picking him as my favorite again. Purito had problems on Prati di Tivo last year too and if he really is in better shape this year - as he states – he’ll win this stage.

The steep part ends with one kilometer to go and this is a great time to counter if the front group stops a little. Last year Vincenzo Nibali got away on the final 500 meters, but was overtaken by teammate Peter Sagan. Not a very wise tactical decision by Sagan who had to apologize to Nibali afterwards. Nibali wants revenge and if Purito doesn’t take this stage, I think Nibali is the best pick. He knows the final very well and he will be extremely difficult to catch if he manages to put in a late attack like last year.

Originally, I would have picked Mauro Santambrogio as joker for this stage but after his amazing performance on Prati di Tivo, I guess he can’t really be seen as a ‘joker’ anymroe. Same goes for Wout Poels who showed to be back on a great level after his horrible crash in the Tour last year. I think both will be up there in the final, but none of them really fit the joker category. Instead I’ll say Moreno Moser. The young Italian came to Tirreno-Adriatico aiming at the GC, but couldn’t keep up on Prati di Tivo. Moser now has to look for stage wins and stage 5 and 6 seems like good options for him. If he manages to stay near the front on the last steep part, he could profit from an strong attack just as it evens out with one kilometer to go. It won’t be easy, but hey; that’s why it’s called a joker.

One last thing. If the favorites don’t attack on Passo Lanciano and Peter Sagan stays in front over this climb, he’ll most likely end up winning the stage. I hope Nibali and Contador will try something far out, but in case they don’t, put your money on the Slovakian wonder boy. I can only pick one winner and even though all three (Purito, Nibali and Sagan) look good to me, I have to stick with my original idea and say Purito.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 4 Preview

Peter Sagan won stage 3 as predicted and just like the last time Sagan won in Tirreno, the following stage will end on Prati di Tivo. Last year Peter Sagan’s teammate Vincenzo Nibali soloed away on the final kilometers, but I seriously doubt Nibali will be able to repeat that victory this year.

As I mentioned in my overall preview for Tirreno-Adriatico, this is the strongest field in many years and compared to last year, most of the favorites have at least two or three strong riders to help on the climbs. Last year only Roman Kreuziger had a teammate in the final. That rider was Paolo Tiralongo who this year is helping Nibali, while Kreuziger himself is at Alberto Contador’s service. Confused? Let’s take a look at the favorites and their teams for the stage.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff

Leader: Alberto Contador

Support: Jesus Hernandez, Roman Kreuziger & Michael Rogers

Astana

Leader: Vincenzo Nibali

Support: Paolo Tiralongo, Janez Brajkovic & Fredrik Kessiakoff

Katusha

Leader: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Support: Dani Moreno

Team Sky

Leader: Chris Froome

Support: Dario Cataldo, Rigoberto Uran & Sergio Henao

Cadel Evans is the only one of the five big favorites without a strong to help in the uphill sections and as you can see Team Sky are very strong. Last season they perfected how to ride the final climbs in stages races and we just saw how they took control in Paris-Nice. Prati di Tivo doesn’t have any steep, steep sections and that is just how Team Sky like it. Froome can put his team to work from the bottom of the climb and I doubt anybody will manage to get away until the last few kilometers. Astana too have a strong team but I think Brajkovic and Kessiakoff will drop before Uran and Henao.

Looking at the favorites, Purito is the only one set to top very soon; in the Ardennes Classics. Nibali is aiming at the Giro while Contador, Froome and Evans all are set for the Tour. Purito was in the leading group on Prati di Tivo last year, but since he wasn’t supposed to peak until the Giro, he lacked a bit in the end. This year it’s different. Purito started out Tirreno-Adriatico with this mind set on winning overall. He showed in Tour of Oman that he is in excellent shape already and knowing he has to take back the time he lost in TTT, he will be eager to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line. The bonus seconds are also the reason why I don’t think a break will make it. This race will probably be determined within a few seconds and naturally all the favorites want to win this stage. The way I see, Purito is the strongest of them right now. I’m sure Contador will put in a series of furious attacks but I doubt he will be able to drop Purito and Froome for good.

My outsider this time is Bauke Mollema. Blanco have a strong team in this race and Mollema can count on support from in-shape Tom-Jelte Slagter. In the final of stage 3, when Alberto Contador was in front of the peloton Bauke Mollema was right behind him and if the other favorites don’t manage to drop Mollema on Prati di Tivo, his fast finish could even give him the stage win.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Bauke Mollema 

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 3 Preview

Mark Cavendish’ complained about his teammates after the second stage. He had the kick, but no help. Andre Greipel had a brilliant team, but didn’t have the legs despite being in a perfect position in the final. The big showndown between Cavendish and Greipel never came and I’m not sure we will see it on this stage either.

The 190 km from Indicatore to Narni Scalo may look like a sure thing for the sprinters, but the last 70 km have the riders climb several small, steep hills. Among these Todi with an average gradient of 12,2%. The last hilly section of the stage ends with 3 km to go. 800 meters of 4,8% serve as the last chance for opportunistic riders to attack but most likely this will end in a sprint. The heavy sprinters will probably have difficulties staying up front but those aiming at Milano - San Remo need to show they can deal with the hills.

The last 3 km are a bit tricky with a few difficult turns, especially a right bend with about 1500 km to go but the last 500 meters are straightforward on a 7 meters wide asphalted roadway. The weather forecast shows another rainy day for the riders and with many descents on last part of the route, it could easily turn into another chaos. Everybody want to stay up front – both the GC riders and the sprinters - and it will only take a single rider crashing to turn it all upside-down.  

Final circuit towards the finishing line in Narni Scalo.
Click for larger view.

The way I see it, this is a great stage for Peter Sagan. As predicted yesterday, he didn’t have the necessary power to sprint for the win on stage 2 but with the many small hills and tricky finish, I think he will have the upper hand against Greipel and Cavendish on stage 3. Matt Goss produced a great sprint when he won in Indicatore and he shouldn’t have problems staying up front either this time. I doubt Lotto-Belisol will be able to provide a strong leadout train for Greipel in this type of finish so it could very well end up being every sprinter for himself.

The favorites want to save as much energy as possible before the big mountain stage the next day, but they won’t let anybody sneak away in the finish either. Vincenzo Nibali and Rinaldo Nocentini have both been showing great shape lately with many attacks in their previous races but they should both be waiting for tomorrow. Instead I’ll pick Moreno Moser as my joker. His conditions is already very good and with everybody looking at Sagan, Moser could try to get away in the final. Not as far out as in Strade Bianche but probably in the last 3-4 kilometers.  Moreno Moser has his eyes on the GC too and it may be foolish to waste energy with a late attack, but on the other hand; he is one of few riders able to finish it off and a stage win sure is better than Top20 overall.

This may be the first time I’ve ever picked two guys from the same team as winner and joker, but I guess there is a first time for everything...

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 2 Preview

Omega Pharma Quickstep got the best possible start when they won the opening team time trial and placed Mark Cavendish in the blue leader’s jersey. Now it’s time for the season’s first showdown between Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

Depending on how stage 3 evolves this could be the only stage for the pure sprinters in this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico and naturally, no one wants to miss out. The stage covers 232 km from San Vincenzo to Indicatore and has a very tricky finish. With 1200 meters to go the peloton crosses a railroad overpass while turning left into a roundabout. The weather forecast shows light rain all day long and with many top sprinters in the race - plus GC contenders who want to stay up front - it will almost be a miracle if nobody goes down in that corner. Luckily the riders will have a chance to study the finish as the final circuit of 12,4 km will done five times.

As stated in the beginning, this is the long-awaited dual between Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. It’s the first time this season the two super stars are going up against each other mano-a-mano and it’s almost impossible to pick a winner. Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel have been phenomenal so far this season with an outstanding leadout train, but Mark Cavendish showed in Tour of Qatar that he doesn’t need a leadout to win.

Lotto-Belisol probably won’t have much to say in the overall classification as Jelle Vanendert already is one minute down after the TTT, and without any riders to win the medium stages in this race, Andre Greipel is their only hope. So far, Lotto-Belisol’s leadout train has been impeccable and I don’t see why that should change now. Yes, there are many talented sprinters at the starting line but none of them has a leadout train like Greipel do. With Kaisen, Sieberg, Hansen, Roelandts, Reynes and Henderson to lead him out, Andre Greipel simply can get it any better.

The only one with a kick powerful enough to get a jump on Greipel is Mark Cavendish. No other sprinter can match Cavendish’ kick in the final 200 meters and in the blue leader’s jersey, Cavendish will be eager to show who the best sprinter in the world is. Personally, I think Andre Greipel will win this stage, but if Mark Cavendish manages to position himself on Greipel’s wheel, he might have a chance to surprise the German Gorilla with an early kick.

The way I see the rest of the field are only fighting for the 3^rd place on this stage. Of course, both Greipel and Cavendish can get it wrong, but with only one big chance to win a stage, none of them can afford to miss this opportunity. And yes, Peter Sagan is here too, but even though he seems to be flying these days, I don’t see him beating Greipel nor Cavendish in a pancake flat finish. Maybe he can use his amazing bike handling skills in the rainy conditions to gain some positions in the final, but outsprinting the two big favorites? I doubt it…

It makes it difficult to pick a joker with so many strong sprinters in the race, but I would like to point out Radioshack’s sprinter, Giacomo Nizzolo. The young Italian has started out this season very well but is still without a stage win. He was beaten by Greipel in Tour Med and by Bos in Volta Algarve but last week he won the sprint behind the winning break in G.P. Camaiore. Nizzolo can count on excellent support from Danilo Hondo - who used to leadout Petacchi in the mass sprints - and even though Hondo isn’t much of a leadout anymore, nobody knows their way around the front in the final kilometers like the German veteran. I think Giacomo Nizzolo will have an excellent season this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the podium on stage 2.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Giacomo Nizzolo           

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 1 Preview

This is the same stage that opened the race last year. It’s only 16,9 km but most of the route is alongside the sea and the wind and the rain could easily be a factor. The weather forecast isn’t very promising but let’s hope all teams get the same conditions - wet or not.

The intermediate time after 7,9 km is right before the more technical part of the route, meaning the fastest team here won’t necessarily win the stage. The teams have been training on the route for a couple of days already and every team with ambitions of winning this stage will know every part of the route down to the smallest detail.

Last year GreenEdge killed the competition and distanced number two (Radioshack) with 17 seconds. This year we have at least three teams with a good chance of winning and naturally GreenEdge are among them again. The Australian team have specialists like Tuft, Mouris, Lancaster and Impey plus riders like Langeveld and Goss who are good in this discipline too. GreenEdge have been training on the course for the past four days and seem to be the big favorite. Still there are two teams with a chance of beating them.

BMC and Omega Pharma-Quickstep both bring very strong teams for this stage. Originally Tony Martin was set to ride Paris-Nice, but in the end he decided to do Tirreno in order to help out the team in this stage and try his luck in the final time trial. Together with Martin, Quickstep have guys like Kwiatkowski, Stybar, Terpstra, Steegmans and Cavendish for the team time trial and they should be able to clock in a top3 time Wednesday afternoon.

Same goes for BMC. Unlike GreenEdge and Quickstep, BMC are extra motivated to do well in team time trial in order give Cadel Evans a good start in the GC. The American team were outstanding in the TTT in Tour of Qatar and that was even without Evans, Hushovd and Quinziato. Personally, I think this will be a fight between BMC and GreenEdge but I wouldn’t count out Quickstep.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff and Radioshack will most likely be the last two teams in the Top5 for this stage and on a good day both of them could make Top3 as well. It all depends on the weather conditions.

With five so strong teams, it’s not very easy to pick a joker but since it’s now a tradition to do so, I’ll say Blanco. The Dutch team have started out the season in a great way - already taking 10 wins - and they do bring a good team for the TTT as well. Bauke Mollema is aiming at the overall classification and I wouldn’t be surprised if they start out Tirreno-Adriatico the same way they have started out the season.

Winnerpick: BMC or GreenEdge

Joker: Blanco

The first team start at 14:45 local time and with three minutes intervals we can expect the last team to finish around 16:10. For live stage coverage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

TDU Preview - Stage 6

Tom-Jelte Slagter did like expected on Willunga Hill and seems now sure to take the overall win. Also joker Rafa Valls put in a strong fight for the stage win, but on Australia Day Simon Gerrans showed he still had a bit of kangaroo left in the legs. Impressive rise indeed.

Now it’s time for the final stage. It’s the typical circuit in Adelaide (20 x 4,5 km) and I would expect the winner from last year - and 2008 - to make a hattrick. Andre Greipel has been on a level or two above everybody else in this race and to have Greg Henderson to lead out should almost give him the win pre-race. Greg Henderson has been leading out the winner the last three years in a row, even taking second place twice, and if Lotto-Belisol were to make it 1 and 2 again this time, I can’t imagine anyone would be surprised.

The circuit in Adelaide. 20 x 4,5 km.

It’s a high speed finish and very often the riders end the way they are placed behind the winning train on the final 500 meters. Meaning that whoever gets Andre Greipel’s wheel in the end will most likely be able to stay on it all the way to the line. Of course there is the chance of Argos-Shimano timing their train right, but against this Lotto-Belisol machine I doubt it will happen in Australia this year.

I’ve already mentioned Jonathan Cantwell among the jokers earlier and he showed his potential with a third place in the last bunch sprint. Another guy I pointed out in the first preview was Andrew Fenn.

The youngster from Quickstep came out of Tour Down Under in super shape last year, winning Trofeo Palma de Mallorca & Trofeo Migjorn but this year he was aiming at showing his talent a few weeks earlier. He came close on stage 4 and showed last year that the short fast stages suit him very well. I think it will be difficult for Fenn to take the win, but a podium spot is definitely within reach.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Andrew Fenn

TDU Preview - Stage 5

It’s time to settle the general classification. As always this will come down to the bonus seconds but compared to last year, this time there are many riders with a good chance of ending on the final podium.

It’s clear that right now Geraint Thomas and Tom-Jelte Slagter are the two big favorites for the overall win, especially since Thomas dropped everybody else on the steepest part of Corkscrew Road and Slagter has turned out to be the fastest among the climbers. Still it would be foolish to count out anybody from Top13 just yet.

Last year the two strongest riders on Willunga Hill were Javier Moreno and Tiago Machado and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these two took the win this time. Machado attacked very early last year and was caught with 1 km to go and I think he will be eager to take revenge. Radioshack have a super strong team for this stage with George Bennet, Ben Hermans and Tiago Machado all in the Top10 overall plus they have Jens Voigt and Jesse Sergent to set the tempo on the flat part. And hey, don’t forget Andy Schleck is here too. If he was to show his face at any point in this race, now would be the time to do it in order to help his team mates.

I know Tiago Machado is very motivated and that he believes he can win both the stage and race on Willunga Hill, but he still needs to shake of the rest of the great climbers. Last year Javier Moreno absolutely murdered the rest of the favorites’ intentions of attacking when the set a furious pace for team leader Alejandro Valverde and now it’s Moreno’s turn to get paced by a strong team. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada, Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador will all be ready to pull uphill on for the Andalusian climber while José Joaquin Rojas and José Ivan Gutierrez can control the peloton on the flat part like they did last year.

Team Sky will probably try to control the race as much as they can but near the coast it won’t be easy in the cross wind. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t been on top of his game yet in this race, but he needs to do at least as well as last year on Willunga Hill to help Thomas get the overall win.

Personally I think this stage is perfect for Tom-Jelte Slagter if his Blanco team can manage to keep it together until the final kilometers. He has another young and strong climber, Wilco Kelderman by his side to help out and the average gradient of 7,6% on Willunga Hill should be in his favor. Furthermore Slagter showed in Stirling that he is the fastest man uphill right now, so if Machado, Thomas and others don’t drop him before the line he could very well end up winning both the stage and the race.

With the bonus seconds being so important I doubt the peloton will let a breakaway steal the win. Well, Team Sky would probably like to, but Blanco, Radioshack and Movistar will all work hard to prevent it. Therefore it’s also difficult to point out a joker who hasn’t shown much yet. Still I think Spanish climber, Rafael Valls will be a good pick for a top result on Willunga Hill. He’s currently sitting 15^th overall - 31 seconds after Geraint  Thomas - but so far the finishes haven’t been in his favor. Valls is a real climber and he needs an uphill finish to show his talent. He’s seems to be getting better and better every day and I think he will be among the first on the top of Willunga Hill.

What about Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans, you might ask. Well, Gerrans doesn't seem to have the same  legs as last year and I honestly think Gilbert will lack a little explosivity on Willunga Hill when the real climbers go for the GC.

  

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter / Tiago Machado

Joker: Rafael Valls

Vuelta Preview - Stage 17

This stage has "breakaway" written all over it. It's true that the last two stages before the rest day also ended up with a break making it to the line but since the last climb here isn't hard enough for the favorites to try something, I think Saxo Bank would be happy to see a break take the bonus seconds.

The peloton enters the Cantabria region and despite the GEOX team not existing anymore we should see local guys like David de la Fuente and Juanjo Cobo try their luck. Felix came close the other day, but yet so far, when he picked de la Fuente as his joker, but maybe this could be his day? Anyway, I will stick with my previous joker Paolo Tiralongo - last chance for the Italian climber as my joker, maybe...

The stage's final climb up to Fuente Dé.
Click for larger view! Source: climbbybike

On paper this stage really looks good for a guy like Tiralongo. One could argue that the last long climb to Fuente Dé doesn't really suit the Italian climber, but the two climbs before that most certainly do. Collado de Ozalba and Collado La Hoz are both around 6 km long with an average gradient of 6,6% and 7,6%  and don't forget that Paolo Tiralongo nowadays has a very good sprint too. He showed that in the Giro earlier this year when he outsprinted Michele Scarponi and won on Rocca di Cambio - the training climb of yesterday's stage winner Dario Cataldo, but that's another story.

Another rider I have backed (too) many times in this Vuelta is Damiano Cunego. The "Little Prince" started the Vuelta as warm-up for the World Champions, but after the new Italian "clean" strategy, Cunego is no longer in the run for a spot on Azzurri's team. Looking at it, this stage seems tailor-made for Damiano Cunego, but without much to warm-up for now I'm not sure he will have the needed motivation anymore. Still - as I've said many times already - look out for Cunego!

The last turn before the finish line.

If this stage ends in a sprint anyway I think it will be fighting between Gianni Meersman and Alejandro Valverde. Meersman showed great shape earlier in the race and if he keeps that up he might have a chance as the last climb has an average gradient of only 3,9%. While it's not sure that Meersman will be there in the final, I think it's safe to say that Alejandro Valverde most certanitly will, so even though Gianni Meersman is an interesting outsider I'll go with Valverde as my favorite.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Paolo Tiralongo

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: David Moncoutie

Joker: Rob Ruijgh 

Explanation: This is a very hard stage to predict - but one thing is almost certain: a break will stay out and it won't contain any of the GC men. French veteran David Moncoutie has pretty much waved goodbye to securing a fifth consecutive king of the mountains title but he will still hope to take a stage win for a fifth successive year in what could, after all, be his last Vuelta. This is the last chance he realistically has - I can't see his battle-bruised old legs getting up the Bola del Mundo in pole position. It's a gamble putting Moncoutie as my winner though: should he win, I'd be far better off taking five points from him as joker. I could then cover my back with a security blanket Mikkel has no doubt opted for: that's to say, one of the Big Three taking the win. That said, I could even throw in Purito as a joker, considering the likelihood of a break staying out... But heck, I'm going to be honest and stick with my gut-feeling, so for my joker I'll choose Rob Ruijgh. Vacansoleil still need a win and de Gendt will probably hold back until the penultimate stage (he needs the mountain points for the polka dot jersey). I feel Damiano Cunego will want to try something after his snub for the worlds, while the likes of Gianni Meersman, Paolo Tiralongo and even Philippe Gilbert will be hungry. Javier Aramendia will no doubt be back in the mix after a quiet week. Simon Clarke, too, may have a pop. Decisions, decisions... with so many permutations, it's going to be fascinating. And I'll no doubt enter stage 18 three points down on Mikkel... or worse, five!

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points