TDU Preview - Stage 5

It’s time to settle the general classification. As always this will come down to the bonus seconds but compared to last year, this time there are many riders with a good chance of ending on the final podium.

It’s clear that right now Geraint Thomas and Tom-Jelte Slagter are the two big favorites for the overall win, especially since Thomas dropped everybody else on the steepest part of Corkscrew Road and Slagter has turned out to be the fastest among the climbers. Still it would be foolish to count out anybody from Top13 just yet.

Last year the two strongest riders on Willunga Hill were Javier Moreno and Tiago Machado and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these two took the win this time. Machado attacked very early last year and was caught with 1 km to go and I think he will be eager to take revenge. Radioshack have a super strong team for this stage with George Bennet, Ben Hermans and Tiago Machado all in the Top10 overall plus they have Jens Voigt and Jesse Sergent to set the tempo on the flat part. And hey, don’t forget Andy Schleck is here too. If he was to show his face at any point in this race, now would be the time to do it in order to help his team mates.

I know Tiago Machado is very motivated and that he believes he can win both the stage and race on Willunga Hill, but he still needs to shake of the rest of the great climbers. Last year Javier Moreno absolutely murdered the rest of the favorites’ intentions of attacking when the set a furious pace for team leader Alejandro Valverde and now it’s Moreno’s turn to get paced by a strong team. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada, Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador will all be ready to pull uphill on for the Andalusian climber while José Joaquin Rojas and José Ivan Gutierrez can control the peloton on the flat part like they did last year.

Team Sky will probably try to control the race as much as they can but near the coast it won’t be easy in the cross wind. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t been on top of his game yet in this race, but he needs to do at least as well as last year on Willunga Hill to help Thomas get the overall win.

Personally I think this stage is perfect for Tom-Jelte Slagter if his Blanco team can manage to keep it together until the final kilometers. He has another young and strong climber, Wilco Kelderman by his side to help out and the average gradient of 7,6% on Willunga Hill should be in his favor. Furthermore Slagter showed in Stirling that he is the fastest man uphill right now, so if Machado, Thomas and others don’t drop him before the line he could very well end up winning both the stage and the race.

With the bonus seconds being so important I doubt the peloton will let a breakaway steal the win. Well, Team Sky would probably like to, but Blanco, Radioshack and Movistar will all work hard to prevent it. Therefore it’s also difficult to point out a joker who hasn’t shown much yet. Still I think Spanish climber, Rafael Valls will be a good pick for a top result on Willunga Hill. He’s currently sitting 15^th overall - 31 seconds after Geraint  Thomas - but so far the finishes haven’t been in his favor. Valls is a real climber and he needs an uphill finish to show his talent. He’s seems to be getting better and better every day and I think he will be among the first on the top of Willunga Hill.

What about Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans, you might ask. Well, Gerrans doesn't seem to have the same  legs as last year and I honestly think Gilbert will lack a little explosivity on Willunga Hill when the real climbers go for the GC.

  

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter / Tiago Machado

Joker: Rafael Valls

TDU Preview - Stage 3

I always look forward to this stage. In the past it was the only one not suited for all the sprinters and now it’s an important stage for the overall classification due to the bonus seconds on the line.

Yesterday my favorite Phillipe Gilbert attacked early but crashed on the descent - probably without a chance of winning the stage anyway at that point - but at least my three mentioned jokers; Javier Moreno, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Tim Wellens all did well, as expected. Geraint Thomas surprised me a little by getting away that “easily” on the steep part and to be honest, it will be very difficult to rip the leading jersey of his shoulders now. I can’t imagine it being done in Stirling, that’s for sure.

Team Sky have a very strong team in Tour Down Under and if Thomas is able to break away from the rest on 15% and still have enough energy to smash it in the sprint, how are they going to drop him in Stirling? A lot of riders hit the deck yesterday and I would expect many of these - out of the GC already - to try to get in the morning break. Last year the early break made it all way to the line and seeing how the race organizers have added two more laps, it will be a very tough stage to control.

I think Team Sky would be happy to let riders out of the GC get up the road early and for their sake battle out the stage win between them. The problem for Team Sky is that so many other teams still want to keep it together. BMC will be eager to set Phillipe Gilbert up for a win on a finish that suits him perfectly and the same goes for GreenEdge with Simon Gerrans, Simon Clarke and Matthew Goss. Lampre have in-form Daniele Pietropolli to count on should it come down to a sprint while Movistar have José Joaquin Rojas to play.

And don’t forget about Andre Greipel. Many would probably say this stage is too hard for fast German, but in the past Greipel have shown he can stay up front in Stirling when he’s on top of his game. In 2011 Greipel took second after Michael Matthews thanks to a powerful finish and with the shape he’s been showing lately, it would be a mistake to count him out already.

Edvald Boasson Hagen could be an obvious candidate to the win, but if Team Sky manage to keep it together for a sprint, I think it would be foolish not to give Thomas a chance to gain few extra bonus seconds. Having EBH leading him out, Thomas would be in an excellent position to increase his lead before the decisive stage on Willunga Hill.

Anyway. To sum it all up. A break will have good chances since it will be difficult to control it on this undulating route, but if the peloton starts working together it should come down to a sprint in a reduced group. My favorite, as said in my first preview, is Phillipe Gilbert. It’s difficult to say how much of an impact the crash will have on him, but if he’s in the front, he will be very difficult to beat. One of the few who could do it is Andre Greipel, but again it won’t be easy for the German Gorilla to stay up front.

For the jokers I would like to point out Luke Durbridge. GreenEdge is out of the GC now and that means Luke Durbridge will have green light to seek an early break. Just like he did in the national championships when he won the road race (after already having won the time trial). The Australian wonderkid seems to be in the shape of his life already and he knows how to suffer on the hills as well. Another guy who knows how to win from a break is Thomas De Gendt. The Vacansoleil captain came to Australia with GC ambitions, but was among those who crashed yesterday. He’s 2:44 min after Geraint Thomas in the classification and even though that’s not a lot, De Gendt may not be the first rider the peloton will start chasing down.

Winnerpicks: Phillipe Gilbert / Andre Greipel
Jokers: Luke Durbridge / Thomas De Gendt

Super Phinney - Super Cool

Taylor Phinney has been fixated about this time trial ever since the race course was revealed and after having the Pink Jersey as his desktop background for months he managed to make his dream come true and win the first stage in this year’s Giro d’Italia.

From the way he had been practicing on the course the last two days it was clear to see that he would do great today and despite bike problems before the start he kept his cool and showed the world what he is capable of doing.

Taylor Phinney didn't panic but kept his cool
when his bike had to get fixed before the start.

At the obligatory UCI bike check right before the start it turned out that Phinney’s saddle wasn’t even and therefore had to be fixed. Phinney didn’t panic and had confidence enough to stand there smiling when his saddle got put into the right direction.

Many of the other rider, aiming to do well in his time trial, put up a stone face when they got on the starting ramp, but not Taylor Phinney. Despite having put an enormous pressure on himself he still took the time to wave out to the audience when the presenters said his name.

As cool as he was before the start, just as cool did he turn out to be on the course. Taylor Phinney smashed Geraint Thomas’ time by 9 seconds and took the first Pink Jersey in Giro. Truly impressive!