Vuelta a España: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After missing out on stage 4, Michael Matthews did a perfect sprint to win stage 5. GreenEdge worked all day in front of the peloton all day long and in the sprint, nobody came close to the young Australian. Garmin tried to set up Tyler Farrar but they will soon have to realize that Farrar’s day as a top sprinter seems to be over.

Stage 6 is the second of three days in a row made for the fast guys and we can expect another bunch sprint. The stage starts out in Guijuelo and the riders will be able to enjoy a slight tailwind all the 174 km south towards Cáceres. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu and even though it’s not flat either, it’s definitely not as hard as the last two days.

With 7 km to go, the road starts to kick up a little but only 2.5 %. It won’t make for a selection in the peloton but the technical final four kilometer may do. Are no less than six difficult turns within the last four kilometers and of course a handful of roundabouts to overcome as well. This being the Vuelta and everything, of course the final turn comes just 400 meters from the line. Heading into a roundabout the peloton goes the long around instead of just turning left. This will really stretch out the peloton. If you enter this roundabout in second or third position, you have a very good chance of winning the stage.

Michael Matthews has been the fastest of the sprinters the last two days and he’s morale is now sky high. Originally GreenEdge had Leigh Howard down for this stage but it doesn't really make sense not to go for Matthews again. He’s obviously the fastest right now. Then again, the team spirit on GreenEdge is amazing and thinking about it, it wouldn’t actually surprise me to see Matthews leading out Howard to win.

Gianni Meersman tried to pass Matthews in the final of stage 5 but he didn’t even come close. I think it will be very difficult for Meersman to win this stage and it wouldn’t surprise me if Omega Pharma Quickstep gave youngster Andy Fenn a chance.

The final four kilometers. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano is right now the best sprint team in the world. They have finally perfected their leadouts and again on stage 5 they tried to make a surprise. They have a young team for this Vuelta and you don’t see any of the regular Tour de France riders among the nine starters. However, they still managed to hit the front with 5 riders on the final kilometers. Nikias Arndt was the man for stage 5 but it’s not necessarily him they will be going for every day. Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam are also very fast on the line.

Lampre’s Maximiliano Ariel Richeze is another fast rider in great shape right now. He wasn’t on top of his game in Eneco Tour but he still managed to finish 2^nd and 4^th in the sprints. This Vuelta is Richeze’s first Grand Tour since he did the Giro d’Italia in 2007 and he’s super motivated to do well. The Argentinian had to fight hard to get on Matthews wheel in the final of stage 5 and with a little bit more luck he might have been able to get closer. It won’t be easy for Richeze to win stage 6 but I think we will see the him in top3 again.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has finished 6^th the last two days in a row. The Norwegian rider was a bit disappointed with his sprint on stage 5 and he will be very motivated to do better this time. Boasson Hagen seems to be getting stronger every day and without any top sprinters in the peloton, he may give Team Sky their first win in this Vuelta Thursday afternoon.

Last of the outsiders for the win in Cáceres is also the rider finishing last on stage 5. Barry Markus is only 22 years old but he  hasalready been close to beating some of the big sprinters. In Tour of Qatar he finished 2^nd after Mark Cavendish twice and after coming back from his injury, Markus took 2^nd place on stage 1 of Arctic Race of Norway earlier this month. Vacansoleil-DCM has been setting up Grega Bole the last two days but with a more flat stage, it’s now time for the fast Dutchman.

As of Wednesday evening the weather forecast shows 50 % chance of rain for the final. Hopefully the roads will stay dry. If not, it seems unlikely nobody will crash on the last four kilometers.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 6, Laura picks Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

On stage 2, Dani Moreno waited too long when Nicolas Roche attacked. That mistake cost him the stage win. Tuesday afternoon, Moreno took no chances when he attacked from afar and managed to keep Fabian Cancellara and the rest of the peloton behind him. Cancellara’s strong effort probably made the gap among the favorites, which made Chris Horner lose the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali. However, the American doesn’t seem too upset over losing the jersey. “It’s ok for now. I will use my good legs to get it back”, he says.

Astana shouldn’t have problems keeping the jersey on Stage 5 even though it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. There are only two categorized climb on profile but the 174.3 km from Sober to Lago de Sanabria include numerous hills. Officially, the first climb Alto do Covelo doesn’t start until after 68.6 km. However, at this point the road has already been going uphill for the past 11 km.

With 42.3 km to go, the final categorized climb of the day begins. Alto de Padornelo is 11 km long but with an average of just 2.6 % it won’t make for a huge selection in peloton. It gets steeper towards the top but strong sprinters like Gianni Meersman, Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t have problems staying in front.

Coming down from Alto de Padornelo the final 20 km may look flat but don’t be fooled. We are in Spain and that means you shouldn’t trust the road book when it comes to “flat” parts. The last 10 km are constantly up and down and there is a part of 1.5 km with an average gradient of 4.3 % as the peloton enters Cubelo with 6 km to go. A tailwind will help the riders keep a high pace the final 5 km and without any sharp corners; it will be a fast finish. However, this is the Vuelta and it can’t surprise anybody that the race organizers have put in a 90° corner with just 600 meters to go. This will stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point. Preferably with two teammates in front of you.

Dani Moreno took the peloton by surprise on stage 4 but with a flat finish, guys like Meersman, Matthews and Boasson Hagen should be able to fight for the win. It’s a tough day and I’m not quite sure the pure sprinters will manage to stay in the peloton. The joker picks for a sprint are the same as those for stage 4. Meaning riders like Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Grega Bole and Anthony Roux.

There is a good chance of this stage finishing in a bunch sprint but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a breakaway making it all the way. It could be the morning breakaway and it could be a late breakaway on Alto de Padornelo. Vincenzo Nibali is not interested in losing the Red Jersey again so we have to look to riders already out of the GC for possible breakaway candidates.

Amets Txurruka is 4:33 min behind in the overall classification and the Basque rider is a true breakaway specialist. Txurruka is in great shape right now and has already tried to breakaway twice within the last couple of days. Another strong rider down the GC who is in good shape is Juan Antonio Flecha. He has attacked on the last kilometers the last two days in a row but without success. Flecha is obviously going strong right now but maybe he’ll have more luck with an attack from afar.

The TV-viewers have been spoiled with images of the beautiful scenery in Galicia and with the finish line next to Lago de Sanabria, this will be another spectacular stage to watch. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 5, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and picks Thomas de Gendt to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

Stage 2 gave us a lot of answers. Euskaltel had high hopes for Samuel Sanchez in their last Vuelta but the former Olympic Champion got dropped early on the final climb. Sergio Henao came to the race as one of the outsiders for the podium but the Colombian climber didn’t have a great day and ended up getting dropped with 4 km to go. Both Henao and Sanchez lost 2:41 min to Nicolas Roche who took a brilliant stage win.

Vincenzo Nibali is new rider in the Red Jersey and unless Astana decides to give it away, Nibali could very well end up having this jersey all the way to Madrid. Roche is second overall, eight seconds down, while Zubeldia, Horner and Kiserlovski all finished with the favorites on stage 2 and sit 10 seconds behind Nibali.

Monday’s stage 3 looks a little bit like stage 2. It’s another flat one alongside the Galician coast but this time a headwind will make it hard for a breakaway to get a big gap. The TV-viewers will be spoiled by images of the amazing scenery and like on stage 2, there will be time to enjoy it. Unless the wind splits up the peloton, the stage probably won’t get interesting until the final 20 km.

The final 5 km of stage 3 up to Mirador de Lobeira-

The riders will be struggling with the headwind for most of the day but with four kilometers to go, the peloton turns right and the final four kilometers uphill will take place in a strong tailwind. The ascent up to Mirador de Lobeira only has an average gradient of 4.8 % but it has some steep parts. 

Also, it’s extremely important to be near the front. With about 1.5 km to go the riders turns right on the very narrow Camiño Novo. There are parts of 8% on this little road and you need to be among the first five riders if you want to win this stage. If not, you simply can’t move up in the peloton before it’s too late. There are 10 bonus seconds on the line and should Nicolas Roche be able to make two out of two, he will take the Red Jersey. It’s not very likely but if Saxo-Tinkoff delivers him in front, it could happen.

Even though the final climb isn’t very long nor very steep, I highly doubt the few pure sprinters will have a chance. Guys likes Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews however, may have a chance. Both riders are in great shape, cope well with the hills and are very fast on the line. On paper, Phillipe Gilbert should have a chance but I don’t think he’s ready after his crash in Eneco Tour. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another rider who could do well on this finish but he’s not 100 % either. 

UPDATE: It's now been confirmed that the race organizers have widened the road the last 1.5 km towards the finishing line. You can see a photo of the new road here. The road is now twice as wide as before and this clearly favors guys like Meersman and Matthews.

The view from Mirador de Lobeira is spectacular. This is one of the last turns on the narrow road towards the line.
Photo via Google Maps.

Movistar cranked up the pace on the final climb on stage 2 but they didn’t have anyone ready to follow when Dani Moreno attacked. Alejandro Valverde easily won the sprint among the favorites and should Movistar decide to go hard on the part of 8 %, Valverde will be the man to beat. The strong Spaniard has been eager to point out that for him, the World Championship is more important than the Vuelta. Still, few in the professional peloton has a killer instinct like Valverde when he sees the finishing line. If sprinters like Meersman and Matthews aren’t in the peloton, I can’t see who should beat Valverde.

Simon Gerrans is here to prepare for the World Championship and on paper, this is a very good stage for him. However, I’m not quite sure if Gerrans is up for it already. Matthews is definitely GreenEdge’s best card to play and he comes to the Vuelta with two fresh stage wins from Utah in the bag.

In case Gianni Meersman doesn’t have a good day, Omega Pharma Quickstep has two other very interesting riders in Pieter Serry and Zdenek Stybar. Both are very good on these kind of climbs and both are  packing a solid sprint as well. I doubt they can outsprint Alejandro Valverde but with a late attack they may take the peloton by surprise. 

For other outsiders look to the two Italians Rinaldo Nocentini and Diego Ulissi. Nocentini did very well in Burgos lately and finished 5^th in Tre Valli Varesine just a week before the Vuelta started. Rinaldo Nocentini is fighting for a spot on the Italian team for the World Championship and this stage is almost tailor-made for the Ag2r veteran. Domenico Pozzovivo came close on stage 2 and it won’t be a big surprise if Nocentini comes close on stage 3.

Diego Ulissi used Tour of Poland as preparation for the Vuelta and he started out by outsprinting the whole peloton to take the leader’s jersey. He later faded but then finished in a strong way. Lampre tried to set up Ulissi for the stage win on stage 2 but he waited too long and had to settle with 6^th place after Valverde. 

Ulissi is still young and he’s not a rider for a three weeks Grand Tour just yet. He knows how to target one-day-races and specific stages and I’m sure he has his eyes on this one. It won’t be easy to win but if the strong climbers can get rid of guys like Meersman & Matthews, Diego Ulissi definitely has a chance to win on Mirador de Lobeira.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 3, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 1 (TTT) Preview & Favorites

As usually, the Vuelta starts out with a team time trial. This year, the distance is longer than the previous three years and that means we will see much bigger differences in the classification early on.

The teams get to the starting ramp in Vilanova De Arousa by boat and from here the route takes them south towards Sanxenxo. The profile is rather flat - very different from last year - and we can expect the teams with big engines like Omega Pharma Quickstep (Tony Martin) and Radioshack (Fabian Cancellara) to do well. The riders will be enjoying a tailwind for the majority of the route and that too favors the two mentioned teams.

The only technical part of the course is the final two kilometers with a couple of tricky turns but overall, this is not a difficult team time trial.

The map of Stage 1
Click for larger view.

Omega Pharma Quickstep are the defending world champions in this discipline and they have been training hard to defend their title in less than a month in Florence. It’s true they don’t bring all their best time trialists for this Vuelta but with riders like Tony Martin, Kristof Vandewalle, Gianni Meersman and in-shape Zdenek Stybar, they will be very difficult to beat.

The way I see it, only Radioshack and Astana have a chance of beating OPQS. Despite a strong team, Radioshack never really manage to win these stages. However, with Fabian Cancellara, Ben Hermans, Chris Horner and Markel Irizar they definitely bring a solid team. Horner aims at taking the Red Jersey after the uphill finish on Stage 2 and if that is to happen, Radioshack need to put in a strong performance in this time trial.

Astana hope to give Vincenzo Nibali the best start possible with a win on the first day. To achieve that, they bring strong time trialists like Janez Brajkovic, Jakob Fuglsang, Andriy Grivko, Tanel Kangert and Nibali himself. Astana always do well in the team time trials and even though OPQS is the big favorite, I won’t be surprised if Astana wins this stage.

Movistar won the opening stage last year but on a much hillier course. They did well in the Giro d’Italia too but this time they don’t have riders like Alex Dowsett or Jonathan Castroviejo to crank up the speed in the flat parts. They bring a strong team, no doubts about that, but I don’t think it’s strong enough to repeat the impressive win from last year.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff aim at spot close to Top3 but that won’t be easy. They have a couple of solid riders like Roman Kreuziger and Michael Mørkøv but climbers like Rafal Majka, Chris Anker Sørensen and Oliver Zaugg don’t like this discipline. The Danish team may do Top5 but I will be surprised to see them in Top3.

Team Sky won the team time trial in the Giro d’Italia and finished third in the Tour de France this year. However, they don’t have riders like Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome or Richie Porte to keep the speed high this time. It’s true that many of the riders are the same who won the TTT in the Giro but without a real specialist I think Top5 is the best they can do.

Starting Order:
NetApp 18:48
GreenEdge 18:52
Argos-Shimano 18:56
BMC 19:00
Caja Rural 19:04
Cofidis 19:08
Vacansoleil-DCM 19:12
Omega Pharma Quickstep 19:16
Lampre 19:20
AG2R 19:24
Team Saxo-Tinkoff 19:28
Lotto-Belisol 19:32
FDJ 19:36
Team Sky 19:40
Cannondale 19:44
Garmin 19:48
Euskaltel 19:52
Belkin 19:56
Radioshack 20:00
Katusha 20:04
Movistar 20:08
Astana 20:12

Eurosport are covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For the opening Stage 1, Laura picks Movistar to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España 2013 - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the third and final Grand Tour of the season. This year’s Vuelta a España is a real climbers delight with no less than 12 stages finishing uphill. The favorites are many and there are no doubts that this is the most open of the three Grand Tours this year.

Once again, the race starts out with a team time trial but compared to the last couple of years, the time differences will be much bigger this time. We have an uphill finish already on the second day and this means you can’t afford to start out too far off your game. The first sprint stage isn’t due until Stage 5 and we can expect relatively big time differences in the overall classification already at this point. However, it’s nothing compared to the last week. Six out of the last eight stages finish on the top of a climb and with Angliru on the penultimate day, nothing is certain before the final stage to Madrid.

For this year’s Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, it was pretty easy picking out the few big favorites. Without Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali had no real competition in the Giro and since Alberto Contador wasn’t as strong as usually in the Tour, Chris Froome wasn’t really threatened at any point in the Tour. This Vuelta, however, is wide open. Vincenzo Nibali is my personal favorite for the overall win but it won’t be easy to repeat his 2010-performance. I expect Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez, Ivan Basso, Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez to fight for the Red Jersey and I’m sure a we will see a couple of outsiders in the mix as well.

I don’t remember a Grand Tour with so many strong riders fighting for Top10. Just by a quick glans of the start list, I see at least 25 riders with an actual chance of finishing within the ten first. Veterans like Chris Horner and Michele Scarponi both start out the Vuelta with podium ambitions and even though I doubt it will happen, I won’t rule them out as possible Top5 in Madrid.

These are the 21 stages of this year's Vuelta a España. 

Another very interesting ‘veteran’ is Ivan Basso. This season has been a nightmare for former Giro d’Italia winner and he’s now hoping to make it all right with a good performance in the Vuelta. Usually you never see Ivan Basso until it really counts. This year Chris Froome won everything leading up the Tour. Basso's preparation is completely different. He knows how to prepare in his own way and he always manages to deliver when it’s time. Still, in Tour of Poland Basso finished fifth on the first mountain stage and without doing much more in the race, he took 8^th place overall. In Vuelta a Burgos he decided to test himself on the final mountain stage and he looked very strong when he dropped Vincenzo Nibali to finish third on Lagunas de Neila. Ivan Basso is not great on the short steep finishes but this Vuelta is lot more than that, and I’m sure Basso will make a great race and finish in the top.

Originally, I had Carlos Betancur down for a podium place but the Colombian climber has been sick recently and therefore hasn’t been able to prepare the way he wanted. Also, he hasn’t raced since the Giro. For Betancur, the World Champions in Italy is the big goal for this second part of the season. He may not start out this Vuelta in great shape but I’m sure he will be flying by the end of the race. It could easily be enough to make Top10 overall but I doubt he’ll be a player for the podium. Another strong GC rider from Ag2r is Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian climber finished 7^th overall in Tour of Poland and I expect him do very well in this Vuelta.

A Colombian rider has finished 2^nd overall in the first two Grand Tours of 2013 and in case Carlos Betancur isn’t ready, it’s up to Sergio Henao to keep up the tradition. Henao started out this year in a very strong way by winning the mountain stage in Volta ao Algarve. He then went on to win a stage in Vuelta Pais Vasco, where he finished 3^rd overall, before taking second place in Flèche Wallone. As expected, he faded in the end of the Giro but recently he looked strong in Tour of Poland with a 5^th place overall. Last year, Sergio Henao finished 14^th in the Vuelta after helping out team leader Chris Froome. This year, Henao is the leader and he has a very strong team to support him. Dario Cataldo - who I think will do very well in this race - and Rigoberto Uran will be at his service in the mountains. Team Sky have finished 2^nd (Uran, Giro) and 1^st (Froome, Tour) in the last two Grand Tours and they are eager to continue that streak. Both Purito and Valverde had to dig deep in the Tour de France and in case they end up paying for that in the final week of the Vuelta, Henao and others will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

This year’s Vuelta will be the last one with Euskaltel-Euskadi on the start list. The orange color of the Basque team will be dearly missed in the mountains but not just yet. With Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Nieve, Igor Antón and Mikel Landa among the nine starters, Euskaltel show they are ready to fight. The goal is to put Samuel Sanchez on the final podium in Madrid and it won’t be a surprise if they succeed. Sanchez is experienced and already knows what it takes to make Top3 in the Vuelta. He should be able to gain some time on his rivals in the individual time trial and if he hits his top level, he won’t be easy to drop in the mountains either.

Before I end, I’ll quickly mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. The Danish team has a strong line up with Roman Kreuziger, Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. When announcing the team, DS Tristan Hoffman said he saw Kreuziger as the natural leader. However, the Czech rider himself says he won’t be targeting the overall classification. Kreuziger has already had a long and very successful season and he’s now focusing on the World Champions. Instead of going for the GC, Kreuziger will aim at a stage win and to help out Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. Especially Roche is eager to perform well. The Irishman has been aiming at the Vuelta the whole season and after dropping a few kilos, he’s now not afraid of talking about Top5 overall. It will be interesting to see if he can live up to his own expectations.  

The map of this year's Vuelta a España starting in Galicia and finishing in Madrid after 21 stages.

As always, I have a few jokers for you as well. First up is David Arroyo. After more than 10 years on Movistar (and its former names), Arroyo moved to the little Spanish team, Caja Rural for this season. He didn’t do much to show his name in the first part of the year but lately he’s been getting better and better. He came close to winning Vuelta a Burgos overall a few weeks ago and he looked very strong in the mountains. Only super climber Nairo Quintana could distance Arroyo uphill on the final day and now the Spaniard hopes to shine in the Vuelta. David Arroyo surprised everyone when he finished second overall in the Giro d’Italia three years ago. I doubt he can repeat that performance this time but I definitely see him as a strong Top10 candidate. Maybe even more if everything goes his way again.

My second joker for the overall classification is Tomasz Marczynski. It’s a been a great year for Polish cycling and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues in the Vuelta. Last year, Marczynski made a few mistakes in the last week of the race but still managed to finish 13^th overall. There are a lot more candidates this year but I still think Marczynski has what it takes to make Top10. Vacansoleil-DCM are desperately searching for a new sponsor for next year and they bring their strongest team possible to the Vuelta. Riders like Wout Poels, Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra could all lead the team but according to my information, the Dutch team is putting their faith in Tomasz Marczynski.

Other good jokers for the overall classification are Movistar’s three super domestiques; Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi & Beñat Intxausti. Sames goes for Lampre’s [future super] climber Winner Anacona and Team NetApp’s Leopold König.

There are about six stages for the sprinters is this year’s Vuelta a España. Still, we don’t have any super sprinters starting the race. Tyler Farrar will have a unique opportunity to regain status as a “top sprinter” without the competition of Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Sagan etc. etc. Farrar’s rivals will be Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, Theo Bos, Leigh Howard and the youngsters Barry Markus, Michael Matthews and Adrien Petit. Personally, I expect a lot from Barry Markus. He has recently signed a deal with Team Belkin for 2014 saying he wants to learn from Theo Bos. However, in my opinion, he will already show that he is a level above Bos in this Vuelta.

In the beginning, I wrote I saw at least 25 riders with a chance of making Top10 in this race. I’ll leave you with the list of those riders. The order is irrelevant.

Nibali	Majka
Valverde	Arroyo
Purito	Mollema
Basso	Cataldo
Henao	Capecchi
Sanchez	Intxausti
Betancur	Moreno x2
Horner	Zubeldia
Pozzovivo	Marczynski
Roche	Ten Dam
Scarponi	Uran
Pinot	Dan Martin
Landa	De Clercq
Nieve Vanendert	Antón De Gendt

I will be publishing daily Stage Previews during the race. Each preview will be online the evening before the stage starts. For live coverage of Vuelta a España 2013 go to steephill.tv

Get ready for La Vuelta

Vuelta a España 2013 kicks off in about two weeks and it’s time to start getting ready for the third and last Grand Tours this year.

The riders have been fine-tuning their shape the last couple of weeks and if you want to see who’s already doing great, be sure to follow Vuelta a Burgos and Eneco Tour this and next week. There are free online live streams for all the stages in Vuelta a Burgos while Eurosport is broadcasting Eneco Tour starting on Monday (12^th of August).

If you want to try out this Vuelta España for yourself, why not pick one of the 22 teams and give it a go in the new Pro Cycling Manager game? Click on the banner below to download the game and see if you have what it takes to win the Red Jersey in Madrid.

I will publish my Overall Preview of La Vuelta in a week or so and of course, there will be daily stage previews throughout the race. Stay tuned for more!

Tour de France: Stage 21 Preview & Favorites

This year’s Tour de France ends with the three best climbers on the final podium. Everybody knew it would be a race for the climbers and it really was. Alberto Contador didn’t have the legs this year and he only finishes fourth overall - surprisingly enough, a fair result after the last das in the Alps. It’s probably only Alejandro Valverde who can look back a feel he didn’t end where he deserved.

Now it’s time for Paris and this year’s finish will be spectacular. The 100^th edition of the Tour de France ends with an evening stage in the French capital and we are in for a real treat. The riders may not like the late finish but for the TV-viewers it will be great.

The Route

The stage starts at Palace of Versailles and finishes 133.5 km later on Champs-Élysées, most likely with a bunch sprint. For the first time in many years, there are two categorized climbs on the menu this final day. The first one is Côte de Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse and after 33.5 km the riders will pass the Jacques Anquetil monument on the top of Côte de Châteaufort. We will probably see Polka Dot winner Nairo Quintana first over the climb showing off his new jersey for the first time in the race.

The Finish

As always, the real action won’t start until the riders hit Champs-Élysées. From here on, it’s “race on” and the 10 laps will be completed in a furious pace. To celebrate this 100 Years Anniversary, the route takes the riders around Arc de Triomphe instead of turning just before as we have seen in the past.  The sprinters’ teams will try to control the race but they also have to save a little energy for the final. The leadout trains have never been more important than they are this year and it will be crucial to have enough manpower left for the final.

The Favorites

Mark Cavendish has won the last four years in a row and he is the favorite again this year. Compared to Marcel Kittel he has a lot more experience and he knows he can deliver after three hard weeks. Omega Pharma Quickstep still have all nine riders in the race and that will be an important factor. Argos-Shimano had to say goodbye to Tom Veelers just two days before Paris and it’s now up to John Degenkolb and Koen de Kort to leadout Marcel Kittel. Actually, the key word may not be leadout but instead deliver. Usually Kittel wins after a perfect leadout but he has come from behind in all his three stage wins in this Tour. Compared to Greipel, Kittel doesn’t seem to need a strong leadout and that favors him compared to his German compatriot.

Lotto-Belisol lost Marcel Sieberg the other day and that means they won’t be able to take the lead with 4 riders on the last kilometer as they have done earlier in the race. Greipel hasn’t been able to come from behind in the Tour this year and with only Roelandts and Henderson I doubt he will be able to win on Champs-Élysées.

The last of the four big sprinters is Peter Sagan. He has already won the Green Jersey and he now longer needs just to “cruise” into Top5 on the stage. Last year Peter Sagan finished second on the stage and said he could have won without having to close the big gap after Greipel had problems with his bike. Sagan may have enough raw power to take the win on the final meters but against Kittel and Cavendish, it will be very difficult.

The Joker

This time my joker is Alexander Kristoff. He has been left alone to do the sprints the whole race but now Katusha can finally use riders to help deliver him on the right wheel. These power sprints are close to impossible to win without a team around you and that’s why we haven’t seen Kristoff in Top3 except for the very first stage. The morale must be high at Katusha right now after Purito secured a spot on the final podium and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kristoff finishes like he started with a top performance.

It’s difficult to pick between Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel for the stage win. Cavendish has the experience but Kittel has proven to be the fastest on the final meters. Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely have two riders in front of Cavendish heading into the last corner and I’m sure Cavendish is to take revenge after he missed out on Yellow on stage 1. Therefore, the Manxman is my favorite.

Thank you for reading my previews during the Tour!

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Joker: Alexander Kristoff

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 21:

Tour de France: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

We didn’t see a real fight between the GC riders on stage 19 but it’s safe to say that will change now. With only 47 seconds between Contador (second) and Purito (fifth), we can expect quite a show on the final climb.

The Route

This is the shortest regular stage of this year’s Tour de France but with six categorized climbs on the menu, it will be anything but easy. The fight for podium will be furious and we will most likely see tactically attacks right from the beginning. Côte du Puget (5.4 km / avg. 5.9 %) and Col de Leschaux (3.6 km / avg. 6.1 %) are both located within the first 18 km of the stage and the heavy riders will have to dig very deep in order to finish this stage and see Paris tomorrow. The intermediate sprint is up after 33.5 km but it will be of little importance since Peter Sagan already seems sure to win the Green Jersey.

After two category 3 climbs the riders start on Mont Revard with 64 km to go. The 15.9 km towards the top of this category 1 climb have an average gradient of just 5.6 % but the climb is very steep in the beginning. There are still 46.5 km to go from the top of Mont Revard. The descent is not easy and the last climb of the day starts just 10 km after coming down from Mont Revard.

The final  HC climb of this year's Tour.

The Finish

The final climb up to Annecy-Semnoz is very steep and there is only one tiny part where you can catch your breath a little. The 10.7 km have an average gradient of 8.5 % and this is where the final podium will be settled. You can lose a lot of time if you have a bad day on this climb. There are not many steep hairpin corners but the gradients are steady of around 8 % and with parts of 10 % near the top. Remember, there are double up on the KOM points on the top of Annecy-Semnoz and that means 50 points to winner.

The Favorites

I think the GC riders will fight for the stage win today. Riders like Purito, Quintana, Valverde and Contador are yet to win a stage in this year’s Tour de France and even though the podium is more important, they don’t want to lose the chance by giving a break too much of gap early on. The final climb is very steep and that favors the tiny climbers like Purito and Quintana. Chris Froome will be happy just to keep his yellow jersey and I would be surprised to see him go for the stage win.

As it stands before the stage, Purito is one with most to win. He is fifth overall but only 47 seconds from Contador in second place. Purito has timed his condition perfectly and he knows the final climb well after training on it before the Tour. I think Purito and his teammate Dani Moreno will attack in the beginning of the last climb - on the steep parts - and try to make an early selection. Contador has not been great the last couple of days and if he’s not 100 %, it will show already.

Nairo Quintana has the White Jersey secured and he’s now gunning for second place overall and the KOM Jersey. If Quintana ends first or second on the stage, he seems sure to win the Polka Dot Jersey as well and honestly I would be very surprised should the Colombian  super climber not make top2 on this stage.

The way I see it, Purito and Quitana are the two favorites. I doubt Froome will go for the stage and I can’t see Contador beating Purito or Quintana as it is right now. Contador may be able to hold onto his podium place but it won’t be easy with the shape Purito is showing right now.

The Jokers

Since I find it highly unlikely that a breakaway makes it all the way for the third day in a row, I don’t really see any jokers for the stage win. This is between the big favorites and that’s the way it should be. However, should something happen and a break ends up getting too far away, look out for Wout Poels and Arnold Jeannesson. Both are out of the GC (29^th and 30^th overall) but they have been looking very good the last couple of days. At this point in the race, it’s all about who has something left in the legs. Jeannesson stayed with the favorites for quite a while on Friday’s stage but had to let go on the final kilometers of the last climb. Poels probably paid the price for his attack the other day and since none of them can go with favorites when they start to attack, I think both will try to hit the morning breakaway. It won’t be easy though. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff, Movistar and Katusha all will try something from the very beginning of the stage but should a break get away, I would be surprised not to see at least one my two jokers in it.

Favorites: Quintana & Purito

Jokers: Jeannesson & Poels

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 20:

Tour de France: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

After the second and last rest day of this year’s Tour de France, the race continues with tricky stage leading the peloton towards the Alps. It’s not often we have a climb famous for its descent and not its ascent but that is the case this Tuesday.

The Route

On paper, the 168 km from Vaison-la-Romaine to Gap look perfect for a breakaway. The category 3 climb, Côte de la Montagne, starts after just 12 km and serves as a perfect place for a breakaway to be established. The last week of this Tour de France is extremely hard and the GC riders will be happy to have a quiet day in the peloton before the next four tough stages.

This is a short stage and that means the pace will high right from the beginning. For many riders, this is the last chance to win a stage in the Tour de France 2013 and it will be a furious fight to get into the morning breakaway. In case we don’t already have a break after Côte de la Montagne, I think it will happen on Col de Macuègne. This category 2 climb starts after 40 km and the 7.6 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.2 %.

The riders will be enjoying a light tailwind for most of the day and from the top of Col de Macuègne a breakaway should be able to get a big gap. The following 100 km are more or less flat and unless Cannondale and Argos-Shimano miss the break, I doubt the peloton will be eager to catch them.

The Finish

With 21 km to go, the riders face the last climb of the day; Col de Manse. This category 2 climb is 9.5 km long and has an average gradient of 5.2 %. The ascent is not steep very steep but the descent is very difficult. In 2003, Joseba Beloki crashed hard in a corner and his career basically ended just 4 km from the finishing line in Gap. Lance Armstrong continued straight out, over the field, to join the group in the next corner. You all know the story.

The last time the Tour de France used this descent was in 2011. Alberto Contador hasn’t shown much of himself so far in the race but he came to life on Col de Manse with a series of strong attacks towards the top. In the end, he managed to drop Andy Schleck and on the wet descent Contador, Evans and Sanchez opened up a gap of more than one minute to Schleck who clearly didn’t feel safe on the bike.

The final 2 km of Stage 16.

The last 2.5 km are flat and straight out towards the line. Still, there are two or three roundabouts to overcome before crossing the finishing line. ASO have even put the 1-km-to-go-port in one of the roundabouts. As of Monday afternoon, the weather forecast shows rain in Gap at the time the riders are expected to finish and that means will get another dangerous finish to watch this year. Let's hope all riders stay upright.

The Favorites

I think a breakaway will make it but it all depends on Cannondale. They decided not to chase the other day when Matteo Trentin won the stage. The many climbs made it difficult for Cannondale to control the race but if they don’t have a rider in the break this time, I think they will try to bring it back for Peter Sagan. The final climb is not hard enough to drop Peter Sagan and the wet the descent won’t be a problem either. Nobody handle their bike like Peter Sagan and he can - by himself -  close a gap of 20-30 seconds on that final descent should it come to that.

Argos-Shimano is another interesting team for this stage. The climbs should not be too tough for John Degenkolb and if they don’t manage to put a rider in the break, I think they will set up a chase with Cannondale on the long flat part.

Should a breakaway make it all the way, Philippe Gilbert is my pick. So far BMC have been focused on Cadel Evans in the GC but after Sunday’s stage to Mont Ventoux, that race is now over. Gilbert has been complaining about not getting an opportunity to attack but now he has the chance. Gilbert is yet to win wearing the World Champion Jersey but he’s been very active the last couple of days. On Mont Ventoux he showed great climbing legs when he finished 29^th together with Cadel Evans and if Gilbert was to win a stage in this year’s Tour de France, this is the one. Philippe Gilbert also has a chance should a breakaway get caught. He won similar stage in last year’s Vuelta España when he attacked on Montjuic with Purito.

Wednesday’s uphill time trial is very - very - hard and I think the GC riders will save as much energy as possible. That being said, should Chris Froome show any weakness on the wet descent, naturally Alberto Contador and the Belkin boys have to take advantage. Remember, Froome lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall this year on a rainy up-and-down stage (won by Peter Sagan).

The Jokers

Like the other day, there are tons of good breakaway candidates. Riders like Alessandro De Marchi, Romain Bardet, Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler, Juan-Antonio Flecha and Damiano Cunego all lookspromising. I had Jan Bakelants down as my favorite for Stage 14 and he almost pulled it off. He’s been in great shape lately, I won’t be surprised to see him in front again on this stage. The same goes for Michael Albasini. He was the strongest rider the other day but burned up too much energy in the final. I’m sure he’s eager to take revenge and if he hit the right breakaway again, he will be difficult to beat. Adam Hansen is another interesting rider for this stage. He won a similar stage in the Giro d’Italia earlier this year - in the rain - and if he has the same strong legs this Tuesday, he could be a good pick for the stage win.

The wild card team, Sojasun, almost pulled off an amazing stage win with Julien Simon. The French puncheur was caught on the last kilometer and this stage is probably their last chance to make up for that. Julien Simon is ready to give it another go and so is Alexis Vuillermoz who’s knows these climbs very well. Should this stage end with a sprint in a reduced peloton, look out for riders like Michal Kwiatkowski, Tony Gallopin and Ramunas Navardauskas. 

Favorites: Peter Sagan & Philippe Gilbert

Jokers: Michael Albasini / Jan Bakelants / Michal Kwiatkowski

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 16:

Tour de France: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

As expected, it all ended in a bunch sprint on Stage 12 and that should be scenario again on Friday’s Stage 13. Let’s hope this superstitious combination won’t send more riders to the ground as ASO once again have made the final, well, shall we say “interesting” - more on that later.

The Route

Like Thursday’s stage, this is another flat one. There is a small category 4 climb with about 100 km to go but the 1.2 km of 4 % towards the top of Côte de Crotz will barely be noticed in the peloton. The intermediate sprint is located after 112.5 km of the stage and we will see the peloton speed up as usually, which should kill a breakaway’s chances of succeeding.

The route takes the riders southeast and that could make for interesting racing if the wind is strong. As it is now, it won’t be a factor though. With ‘only’ 173 km and a light tailwind, it will be a very fast stage and I can’t see a break making it. This is most likely the last stage for the sprinters before Paris and they simply can’t afford to miss out.

The final two kilometers of Stage 13.

The Finish

Looking at the profile, there seems to be a tough climb close to the line. That isn’t the case. The road does kick up a little but only for 2.5 km with an average of 2.6 %. This surely won’t be enough to drop the sprinters. The run-in towards the finishing line isn’t very complicated but again ASO have decided to spice it up with a couple of tricky corners on the last kilometer. First the peloton turns left in a roundabout, then right - onto a smaller road - then right again and finally left in a roundabout with 400 meters to go. These four corners mean it’s very important to have one or two leadout men left before the final stretch. The finishing line is placed on Rue Pelletier d’Oisy; a parallel road to Avenue du Tour de France which seems like a more logical choice? Oh well.

The Favorites

What Argos-Shimano and Marcel Kittel did on Stage 12 was simply outstanding. Without Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort delivered Marcel Kittel perfectly on the wheel of Mark Cavendish. Gert Steegmans did a great leadout for the Manxman and even though he seemed sure to take the win, Marcel Kittel managed to come around Cavendish on the final meters. Much like he on Stage 10, when Greipel seemed sure to win. Kittel is right now the fastest sprinter in the world and if Cavendish can’t beat him with a perfect leadout, it will be difficult to deny the strong German his 4^th stage win of this year’s Tour de France Friday afternoon. For the first time this Tour, Marcel Kittel is now the man to beat but I doubt he will crack under the pressure…

The sprint ended early for Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel on Stage 12. So far, they have been great at hitting the front at the right time but now it will be more than difficult. Sieberg and Henderson - two of Greipel’s most important leadout riders - both went down hard in the crash and like Veelers, they probably need a few days to get ready again. Furthermore, Jurgen Roelandts hurts his back again after another rider didn’t manage to break in time.

Omega Pharma Quickstep did everything right on Stage 12 but Cavendish simply didn’t have the legs to finish it off. Naturally he - and the team - will be eager to take revenge but against Super Kittel, it won’t be easy. Peter Sagan seems satisfied with getting third and fourth and I expect him to do that again in Saint-Amand-Montrond.

The Joker

As I said yesterday, I’m starting to run out of jokers to pick. I’ve already been through most of them and it seems like only Yohann Gene is left. Europcar have been trying to set him up for the sprint the last days and Gene is getting better and better. He has Kévin Reza to deliver him onto the right wheel and if he can stay out of trouble, he should be able to do Top10 again.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Yohann Gene

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 13:

Tour de France: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel will go head-to-head again and the tricky finish favors the Manxman.

The Route

Without a single categorized climb, there aren’t much to say about this stage. The 218 km from Fougères to Tours take the riders southeast into the country and if you had to skip one stage of this year’s Tour de France, this is probably the one to miss. The intermediate sprint is located with 52 km to go and this will most likely be the only interesting part of the stage so far. If the wind is strong enough some teams could try to split the peloton but I doubt it will happen. If so, it will be towards the intermediate sprint.

The Finish

Contrary to most of the stage, the finish is very difficult. For some reason ASO thought it was a good idea to put in not one but two 90° turns in the last kilometer. The first one comes with about 650 meters to go and the second one with only 450 meters to the line. This means it won’t be a power sprint like last time but it doesn’t undermine the importance of the leadout trains. The peloton will be stretched out significantly in these two right hand corners and you need to be among the first four or five riders into the first corner if you want to win this stage.

The Favorites

The leadout trains are again very important but the tricky finish favors Mark Cavendish. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are both best when delivered in high speed but that won’t be the case in Tours. With the final corner just 450 meters from the line, the ideal scenario would be to enter that corner in second position with one leadout rider in front. Omega Pharma Quickstep messed up last time with Steegmans and Cavendish and they will be eager to take revenge. Also, some idiot sprayed urine on Mark Cavendish in the time trial and if he can convert his rage into power, he will be very difficult to beat.

The final four kilometers of Stage 12. Click for larger view.

Lotto-Belisol have timed it very well the last couple of times with 3 or 4 riders in front with 1 km to go and if they can do that again this time, Greipel should be up for another podium spot. It’s not a sprint that favors Greipiel much but if he enters the last corner with only Greg Henderson in front of him, he should make it three German stage wins in a row.

The tricky final also seems good for Peter Sagan. Nobody in the professional peloton handles their bike like Sagan does and he’s not shy of pushing to get the right wheel when he has to. Like Cavendish, Sagan accelerates very quickly and even though he’s not as fast as Cavendish and Greipel, he should still be able to make Top3.

The Jokers

I think I’ve already mentioned all the joker candidates during the Tour so we are back to repeating a few. I’ve been very impressed by young Danny Van Poppel so far. He’s the youngest Tour debutant since WWII and almost two weeks into the race, he’s still going strong. His leadout man Kris Boeckmans had a bike problem in the final of Stage 10 and despite the crash in front of him, Van Poppel still managed to finish 9^th. Van Poppel has a fast acceleration and if he gets onto the right wheel in the final, he could very well make another top performance.

Also, look out for Cyril Lemoine. The French sprinter will be on home soil and in front of his family and friends, he will be extra motivated to do well. Lemoine knows an early breakaway may be doomed but I won’t be surprised if he tries a late attack. If not, expect Sojasun to set up Cyril Lemoine for the sprint. He should know the tricky finish better than anyone else.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel & Cyril Lemoine

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 12:

Tour de France: Stage 11 ITT Preview & Favorites

After a rest day and a stage for the sprinters, it’s now time to shake up the general classification again. The specialists have been trying to arrive as fresh as possible for this time trial while the GC riders will be more tired after the Pyrenees and that should show against the clock.

The Route

Starting out in Avranches the riders head south towards the first time check in Ducey after 9.5 km. It’s not really flat but it’s not very difficult either with many descents. This first part takes place with a strong tail wind and sets for a very fast start. After the checkpoint, the route turns west and this is where the road starts to kick up a little. Not much, but enough to require a change or rhythm.

Towards the second time check, we can expect a strong crosswind and without any kind of shelter from the wind, the pure climbers and other riders not strong against the clock, will be in big troubles.

The Finish

From the checkpoint in Courtils, there are 11 km to the finishing line. With 3 km to go the riders turn right - into the head wind - and continue straight out towards Mont-Saint-Michel. There is a 180° turn with about 500 meters to go before crossing the finishing line. The riders won’t enjoy this stage but for the TV-viewers if will be yet another spectacular day in the Tour.

The Favorites

Another spectacular place for a Tour de France stage to finish.

Without Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins in the race, there is really only one rider fitting the “Favorite” category. Tony Martin had a horrible crash on the first stage of the Tour but it doesn’t seem to trouble him too much anymore. At least not his performances on the bike. He did great in the team time trial with big pulls in the end (and that was only 3 days after his crash) and he seems very confident heading into this time trial. 

According to Tony Martin himself “anything but a stage win will be a huge disappointment”, so there you have it, Tony is the favorite.

Chris Froome will be interesting to follow as well. Before the Olympic Time Trial last year, he told me the flat route didn’t really suit him, but he still ended up taking the Bronze medal. Froome and Team Sky have had a couple of very tough stages in the Pyrenees and I doubt Froome will be able to challenge Tony Martin. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Froome makes Top3 again.

The Jokers

My outsider for this stage is the oldest Tour de France debutant in recent history of the race. Svein Tuft is a real powerhouse and like Tony Martin, he was the reason why his team did so well on Stage 4. GreenEdge won with less than second and that’s most likely thanks to this strong Canadian. Tuft has been saving energy - as much as you can in your debut Tour hitting the Pyrenees - the last days and he’s now hoping for another big result. Svein Tuft started out the season in a fantastic way when he won the time trial in Tour San Luis. Before Tour de France started, Tuft won the opening prologue in Tour de Slovenia and after the team time trial success, I think Tuft will do great today.

Another great candidate for a good result is Sylvain Chavanel. The French Champion will be eager to show off his jersey in the time trial and this is a perfect distance for Chavanel. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski could very well end up in the top end of the table and I wouldn’t be surprised if Omega Pharma Quickstep put at least three riders in Top10.

Click here for the starting order. First rider is Astana's Dmitriy Muravyev who starts at 10:28 CET. My joker Svein Tuft starts as number two at 10:30 and his time should be be a reference time for the rest of the riders. Tony Martin starts at 12:36 while Chris Froome is last rider on the ramp starting at 16:54.

Favorite: Tony Martin

Joker: Svein Tuft

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 11: