Tour de Suisse: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

On paper this stage may look like a good one for a breakaway to make but the final part isn’t as hard as it may seem. The profile shows two small climbs starting with less than 30 km to go but they aren’t very steep.

The first one, a 3 km long category 3 climb, has an average gradient of 6.8 % but with a strong tail wind, the peloton will be able to keep a high speed. Reaching the top there are still 5 km of false flat before the descent starts. The downhill section isn’t very technical and it will be difficult to keep the peloton at bay.

The road starts to kick up again with 14 km to go but the two kilometers towards the sprint aren’t steep at all. The descent only has one tricky hairpin corner and when the riders turn right on Seestrasse, it’s straight out for almost 8 km towards the finishing line. A lonely rider or a small group will have difficulties keeping a gap with a strong cross/head wind alongside Lake Zürich and I think we will see another bunch sprint.

There is a small traffic island just before the road bends right with about 200 meters to go. The turn is not as important as the sharp one on Stage 4 but if you need to be among the first three in order to win.

Once again, it’s hard not to pick Peter Sagan as the favorite. He won’t have any problems on the hills and with a strong team to support him he will be difficult to beat. Sagan didn’t managed to position himself well on Stage 4 and that cost him the win. On Stage 5 he was in the right position but ran out of teammates in the end. Sagan had to start his sprint too early and after two missed opportunities, he must be eager to take revenge now.

It’s also a good finish for a real power sprinter like John Degenkolb. With a head wind the last 8 km it’s important not to hit the front too early and Degenkolb probably has the best leadout train in the race. A couple of years ago Argos-Shimano’s mantra was to get the best leadout train in the world and they are close to succeeding. They didn’t time it well in the beginning of the season but recently they have been looking very strong. It’s true they messed up a bit on Stage, but I still think Degenkolb will be first rider into the last bend. Time will tell if that’s enough to win.

Since this stage is good for a power sprinter, it’s naturally also good for Alexander Kristoff. As mention in the preview for Stage 5, the Norwegian is very strong right now. He made it look easy when he beat Sagan and Démare on Stage 5 and his moral is now sky high. Once again, it’s difficult to pick between the three riders named above. Kristoff’s confidence is high now, Sagan is out for revenge and Degenkolb must be eager to finally show himself. If I have to pick one, I’ll go with Sagan again.

There are many strong sprinters in this race and it’s difficult to pick a joker with a chance to win. My pick this time is youngster Boy Van Poppel. He may not be able to beat the best sprinters in this race but on a good day, he’s up there fighting for podium. Van Poppel took 5^th place on Stage 3 of Tour of California and he seems to be in good shape right now ending 9^th on Stage 5. Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of fast guys in Tour de Suisse but instead of sprinting for each other, they are now focusing on Van Poppel. Grega Bole has been assigned as leadout for Van Poppel and if the young Dutchman gets on the right wheel, he could very well make top5 if not more.

If it a breakaway makes it after all - though I doubt that - look out for Luis León Sanchez. The Spaniard is back after his short suspension and he's already in great shape. He attacked from a far and won the last stage of Belgium Tour last month and he could very well give a go in the final 25 undulating kilometers.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Boy Van Poppel & Luis León Sanchez

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

Peter Sagan probably didn’t read the road book for Stage 4 as he was caught up in the middle of the peloton heading into the last corner. He tried to make up for it but he went the wrong way around and almost crashed against the barrier. He still managed to finish 7th on the stage and I think he is eager for revenge.

Stage 5 ends with two loops on a 26.5 km long circuit. Each loop includes two categorized climbs, both with an average gradient of aprox. 5 %. The climbs are short and they probably won’t make a big selection in the peloton. Still, they will make life hard for the pure sprinters. Jens Voigt almost managed to keep the peloton at bay on Stage 4 and if a group of strong riders gets away on the final loop, it could make things very interesting.

I think this will end in a sprint and contrary to the finish of Stage 4, there aren’t any tricky corners towards the this time. The road book shows a couple of turns in the final three kilometer but it’s really more the road bending a bit than an actual corner. The last 500 meters kick up with 4 % towards the line but after 2.5 km straight out, I don’t think the incline favors Peter Sagan more than anybody else. The five climbs in the last
66 km favor Sagan but a power sprint like this is more in John Degenkolb’s wheelhouse. The German sprinter came to Tour de Suisse after a training camp in Sierra Nevada so he shouldn’t have problems with these category 4 climbs. Degenkolb wasn’t sure how his sprinting legs would respond after training in the mountains but with a 4th place in a finish that didn’t suit him, I see him as one of the big favorites for the win in Leuggern.

Alexander Kristoff is another rider this type of finish is good for. The big Norwegian is getting better every season and he's now hoping to shine in the Tour this summer. Kristoff won three stages in Tour of Norway last month and he also won the peloton’s sprint in GP Gippingen last week. Kristoff now knows some of the climbs and that will definitely help him in the final. In the Tour de France, Kristoff will be left alone to do the sprinting and he doesn’t have a lot of help in Tour de Suisse either. This is a good opportunity for him to show the team that he can cope with the pressure and win on his own.

Looking for a joker, I think we should look to breakaway candidates. Phillipe Gilbert is still gunning for his first victory in the Rainbow Jersey. The most important task for BMC right now is to keep Mathias Frank in yellow but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gilbert was given a free role. He tried a couple of times in Belgium Tour a few weeks ago and again on Stage 2 of this race. Gilbert is one of the best riders on these type of climbs and he’s very fast on the line too. I still doubt a breakaway will succeed but if any rider can make it on a route like this one, it’s Phillipe Gilbert.

It’s difficult to pick a favorite between Sagan, Degenkolb and Kristoff but if I had to pick one, it would be Sagan. Simply because it’s difficult to image him missing out two days in a row.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Joker: Phillipe Gilbert

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Looking at the stage profile and then looking at the start list, this preview could very well consist of just two words; Peter Sagan.

The Slovakian wonderboy won four stages in last year’s Tour de Suisse and despite a steep climb on Stage 3, he still managed to win. Sagan came to the race after two weeks in San Pellegrino where he had been training hard in the mountains. He wasn’t sure how his legs would respond but I’d say his legs are just fine.

Sagan has Lucas Sebastian Haedo as leadout and his faithful helper Moreno Moser to keep the pace high. Moser was an important factor in Sagan’s four stage wins last year and after Sagan ‘let’ him win Strade Bianche earlier this year, Moser won’t mind helping out his teammate.

With riders like Matt Goss, Arnaud Démare, John Degenkolb, Ben Swift, Alexander Kristoff & Tyler Farrar in the race, Sagan isn’t the only favorite for the stage. Still, I think he will be very tough to beat. Sagan is good on the hills and the 3.7 km category 2 climb with just 40 km to go will be in his favor. The climb has an average gradient of 6.2 % and even though the pure sprinters will have time to get back in the pack, they will have to burn extra energy to do so.

The last 20 km are flat and with so many sprinters in the race, I think it’s safe to say a breakaway will have very small chances of succeeding today. One of reasons why I’m picking Sagan and not a strong power-sprinter like Degenkolb is the final run-in towards the line. There is a 90° left turn with just 200 meters to go and I bet the first rider into that corner wins the stage. Nobody handles their bike better than Peter Sagan - just ask Ben Swift - and even though Sagan may not have the fastest top speed, he accelerates quickly out of the corners. Arnaud Démare will probably come close but I doubt he will be able to beat Sagan. 

My joker for the stage win is Heinrich Haussler. IAM Cycling are riding on home soil and his is the most important race of the year for them. Haussler was lucky with the weather conditions in the time trial where he took 3^rd place and I think he make podium again on Stage 4. Haussler is in great shape right now and his moral is high too after he won the final stage of Bayern-Rundfahrt two weeks ago.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Joker: Heinrich Haussler

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

Bauke Mollema timed his attack perfectly on Stage 2 when he caught Ryder Hesjedal on the final kilometer and soloed away to win the stage. After the stage, Mollema was quick to point to the overall podium as his new target in the race, something I had him down for in my overall preview as well. Unfortunately the Dutch climber got a 20 seconds penalty after the stage since he had gotten a bottle of water from his team car within the last 20 km. Mollema is now 34 seconds after Cameron Meyer in the GC and that means he needs to attack more the up-coming days.

Stage 3 is 204.9 km long but the first 165 km are more or less flat. As the riders enter Meiringen the road kicks up with a small category 4 climb on Grimselstrasse. The 1.9 km with an average of 5.6 % won’t make a big selection but the following category 1 climb will indeed.

The 12.2 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.3 % but the climb is actually a lot steeper. The average gradient goes down because of a flat part of 1.2 km halfway to the top. The climb starts out with 7 % and has a part of almost 4 km with 9.5 % before it evens out. The last 2.8 km have an average gradient of
7.5 % and I expect a group of maximum 20 riders to reach the top together. There are 19.4 km to go from the top of the climb and if a lonely rider or a small group get a gap over the top, they won’t be easy to catch.

The first part of the descent is technical but the second part is easy and very fast. The final two kilometers are flat and straight out towards the finishing line. For those of you who watched the Giro d’Italia, this stage reminds me of Stage 16 to Ivrea. Beñat Intxausti won that stage after breaking away on the final flat part and if this one doesn’t end in a sprint within a reduced group, it could very well end like in Ivrea.

Giovanni Visconti came out of the Giro with two stage wins and he is still looking very strong. He finished 9^th on Stage 2 and is now 4^th overall. I doubt he will be able to keep his Giro-shape the whole week but he seems eager to get another win and it could very well be here. Visconti has a newfound strong mentality and he now knows he can win. He won a similar stage in the Giro just a couple of weeks ago and to me he is one of the big favorites for the win in Meiringen.

On paper, this third stage could also be another one for Team Blanco. With riders like Luis León Sanchez, Steven Kruijswijk, Lars-Petter Nordhaug, Wilco Kelderman and Bauke Mollema they have a very strong team. Mollema is not only good on the climbs he is also fast on the line in a reduced group. His moral is great after his stage win but he is probably also eager to take revenge for the 20 seconds penalty. If Blanco can make the race hard and keep Mollema up front, he might as well make it two in a row.

The final descent. A is the top of the climb. B is the finishing line.

Ryder Hesjedal and Daniel Martin were two of the strongest rider on the final climb on Stage 2 and I think they will both try something on this stage. Hesjedal showed he was good on the descents when he attacked numerous times in the Giro and Daniel Martin is another rider with a good sprint in a reduced group. Martin joined every move when Hesjedal was in front on Stage 2 and that was even without being able to breathe properly. If Dan Martin feels better in the rain on Stage 3, he is another strong candidate for the win.

One of the big favorites for the overall win, Rui Costa, couldn’t follow the best riders in the final on Stage 2 but I think he will only get better. He shouldn’t have problems staying in front on this final climb and with a descent towards the line, he is another one of the favorites. Like Visconti, Mollema and Martin, also Rui Costa is fast on the line and if a group of 20 riders arrive together it will be difficult to pick a winner.

With a tricky beginning of the final descent and rainy conditions, I doubt the riders aiming at the Tour de France will take any chances. Instead, the riders coming from the Giro may take a few more risks and that is something that favors Giovanni Visconti. It also favors my joker for Stage 2, Tanel Kangert. The Estonian Champion probably attacked too early in the headwind on the final climb but he seems very strong and I think he will try again on Stage 3. 

Favorite: Giovanni Visconti
Joker: Tanel Kangert

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse: Stage 2 Preview & Favorites

Modified stage profile. Not official but should be accurate.

As I already wrote in the overall preview, Stage 2 has been modified due to bad weather in the mountains. That means the early HC-climb Nufenenpass has been cancelled and the stage has been shortened from 160 to 117.2 km.

A short stage is a fast stage and without the climb in the beginning, the peloton will be starting out in high speed. Many riders will look to get in the breakaway and thereby have an advantage starting the final climb. Without bonus seconds on the line the GC contenders don’t have to focus on the stage win but I think it will come back together and end with one of the favorites winning on Crans Montana.

Crans Montana is a frequently used climb in Tour de Suisse. Last time the race finished here, Mauricio Soler won. The Colombian climber crashed horribly on the following stage but luckily, he survived. The stage win on Crans Montana was the last in Soler's way too short career. Movistar will be eager to pay tribute to Soler on Crans Montana and in Rui Costa they have a strong contender for the stag win. Also, teammate Andrey Amador is a good outsider with a late attack.

The climb itself is 16.3 km long and has an average gradient of about 6.5 %. The last couple of kilometers are the steepest with parts of 8.5 % and 7.2 % towards the line. I think Movistar will try to control the race and together with GreenEdge I doubt they will let a break get too far away. My joker for the overall classification Cameron Meyer took a lot of times on his rivals in the opening time trial and I think it will be very difficult to rip the yellow jersey off his shoulders on this stage.

It won’t be easy to beat Movistar but I think Thibaut Pinot is one of the few riders who can. The French climber has his eyes fixed on the Tour but that doesn’t mean he don’t race to win in Tour de Suisse. The hard race suits him fine and despite this being a short stage, he final climb is right up his alley. Pinot did very well in the opening time trial and after a strong performance in Bayern-Rundfahrt, I think he will be fighting for the win on Crans Montana.

My two personal jokers for the stage win are Tanel Kangert and Damiano Caruso. Kangert was one of the big revelations in this year’s Giro d’Italia and he still seems to be in great shape. He turned out to be one of the best helpers for Nibali in the mountains and he showed to be very strong when he took 5^th place in GP Gippingen last Thursday. Astana have Brajkovic in the race as well but the Slovenian may need a day or two before his legs are used to racing again. I think Astana will try to set-up Kangert for the stage win and he might as well pull it off.

Damiano Caruso wasn’t planned to ride the Giro d’Italia this year but after Ivan Basso got injured, Caruso had to change his race schedule and take part. He was rather invisible the first part of the race but as he raced into shape he finished the Giro in a very strong way. Caruso now hopes to do well in the overall classification in Tour de Suisse and to take a stage win along the way. There are many strong riders on the start list but if Caruso can ride as he did on the hilly time trial in the Giro (finished 3^rd), he will be up there for the win, I think.

Favorites: Rui Costa & Thibaut Pinot

Jokers: Tanel Kangert & Damiano Caruso

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 8 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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The final day of the Dauphiné is still a big mountain stage but relatively easier than the previous stage. It’s shorter, there are few climbs and vertical metres plus the final climb is a regular affair. But it’s still a race and a prestigious mountain stage victory is up for grabs.

Stage 7 Wrap: a big break went before Alpe d’Huez. The start was fast and many riders abandoned including NetApp-Endura’s Leopold König who was sitting in ninth overall. The Alpe was climbed and the Sarenne descended without any incident.

But the move was too big and allowed several riders to sit on, for example Angel Madrazo of Movistar. A headwind proved fatal and all riders were eventually swept up. We saw several role reversals, first Alberto Contador played team mate, setting the pace on the Col du Noyer for an Aussie swap, ejecting Rohan Dennis and putting Michael Rogers on the podium although the Garmin-Sharp rider keeps his white jersey. Next was Samuel Sanchez who stole the acting crown from Thomas Voeckler with his grimacing and teeth-baring only to outsprint Jacob Fuglsang for the win but theatrics aside it was a clear win and his first of the year.

Froome was out of the saddle a lot on the final climb which is unusual. Normally he climbs with his elbows bent as if pushing a supermarket trolley and head tilted to the side like he’s wedging a phone on his shoulder but he was even more asymmetric than usual. It’s too much to say he had a bad day, he never lost a metre but perhaps he a “tell” that signals fatigue.

The Route: 155km and 3,700 vertical metres, with most of the climbing concentrated at the end. A scenic start in Sisteron with its fort sitting above the Durance river but it’s not strategic for the race. The race heads north-east into the Alps, slowly rising on roads that drag on at 2-3% for a long time, often reaching 5%. It’s tiring for those setting the pace but fine for those sheltered on the right wheel.

The Col de Vars starts with about 45km to go. As the profile shows it is very irregular, an easy start followed by a brief descent before a 15% section and then over 8% to the top. But a word of caution, the 15% label seems excessive.

The Finish: regulière as they say in French. This is a steady climb where riders can get into a rhythm and hardly need to change gears once the slope starts to bite. But regular is not easy, 13.9km means a long climb and it’s steep enough to do plenty of damage. Again the profile shows a section of 9% but it’s not that bad, instead the slope eases to the finish line in the ski resort.

The Scenario: the last chance. A breakaway could go but the likes of Movistar and Katusha seem keen to set up a win for Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez. But their attacks on the Col du Noyer seemed the wrong idea, both can sprint fast at the top of a mountain and you wonder if they’d be better off letting Team Sky do the work and then taking on the likes of Richie Porte in the final 300 metres for the stage win? Samuel Sanchez had to work for his win but could repeat the feat, he’s got better during this race.

The long final climb is idea for the bunch to reel in any moves, whether the early break or a late move. The big wide roads allow a team to pace their effort.

TV: the stage finishes early at 2.45pm. cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have the links to video streams if you can’t get it on TV.

Weather: often run in a heatwave, this year’s edition has had cool conditions and the final stage could see sunshine and showers with cooler temperatures of 12-16°C. A light tailwind from the south-east will help speed the bunch on its way.

Déjà vu: Risoul is not the most famous name in the Alps but it’s trying to make a name for itself with cycling. It’s hosted the finish of the Tour de l’Avenir (Nairo Quintana won the race thanks to the climb) as well as a stage of the Dauphiné in 2010 when Nicolas Vogondy (Bbox Bouygues Telecom) rode away for the win, profiting from marking amongst the big names to land the win. And if the climb is becoming familiar, the Risoul summit finish will be on the route of the Tour de France in 2014.

Top 20 Overall
1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 25:00:13
2 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:51
3 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:01:37
4 Daniel Moreno (Spa) Katusha 0:01:47
5 Daniel Navarro (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:49
6 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team 0:02:04
7 Stef Clement (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:02:32
8 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team 0:02:47
9 Rohan Dennis (Aus) Garmin-Sharp 0:02:48
10 Alberto Contador (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:02:56
11 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:03:21
12 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:03:45
13 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:03:49
14 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step
15 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ 0:05:10
16 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) RadioShack Leopard 0:05:40
17 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 0:06:55
18 Geraint Thomas (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:07:31
19 Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha 0:08:39
20 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Argos-Shimano 0:08:40

Tour de Suisse: Stage 1 Preview & Favorites

The last four years this race has started out with a short time trial and this year is no difference. The venue has changed from Lugano to Quinto but the distance is more or less the same. This 8.1 km time trial isn’t as hilly as the usually one in Lugano and this will favor the specialists.

The first 6 km are flat with only a few corners but the last 2 km include 300 meters of 7% before the descent and the last flat km towards the line.

It’s a good course for Fabian Cancellara but his shape is uncertain at the moment. He won’t be doing the Tour de France this year and therefore he doesn’t need to be in tip-top condition right now. Still, this is his home race and I’m sure he will do whatever he can to take the first yellow jersey in Quinto. Last year Peter Sagan beat Cancellara in the opening prologue and naturally, the Slovakian wonderboy must be named among the contenders for the stage win.

Sagan was great in Tour of California last month where he won two stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins three or four stages in Tour de Suisse again this year. Last year’s prologue favored him with the climb in the middle and even though it's hard to bet against him, I don’t think he will win this stage. Instead look to teammate Moreno Moser. The young Italian was third last year and has high hopes for this stage. Moser will be working hard for Sagan in the coming stages. A win in the opening stage will definitely be good for his moral.

Another strong contender for the win is Alex Rasmussen. The strong Dane won Stage 1 of Bayern-Rundfahrt a couple of weeks ago and seems to be back in good shape after his suspension. This kind of time trials are perfect for Rasmussen and on a good day, he’s fighting for the stage win.

If you are looking for an outsider try Simon Geschke or Cameron Meyer. Geschke ended 5^th overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt after a strong performance in the long time trial and actually a short one should suit the German even better. Cameron Meyer is one of my jokers for the overall classification and he’s always good against the clock. I think this time trial suits him very well and starting early his time will probably stand as one of the best for a very long time.

You can see the starting order for the time trial here.

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Tour de Suisse 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Tour de Suisse 2013 / 8-16 June.

While Critérium du Dauphiné still is in its final face in France, the second Tour de France warm-up race, Tour de Suisse, is just about to start. 

The big favorites for the Tour are riding in Dauphine this year but that doesn’t mean we won’t get a great race to see in Switzerland. With three mountain stages, two individual time trials and four undulating sprint stages; every day will be important for the overall classification.

Unfortunately, there are already bad news. Stage 2 has been modified because of bad weather in the mountains and even though the final climb still stands, the hard start of the stage has been changed.

Looking at the start list I see at least five riders with a chance of winning Tour de Suisse overall. Tejay van Garderen, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, Ryder Hesjedal and Thibaut Pinot are all suited for the nine stages in this year’s edition. Especially TJ and Rui Costa will have an advantage with the two time trials.

Rui Costa won the race overall last year after winning the first stage uphill to Verbier. The strong Portuguese rider was under attack from every side in the final stages but thanks to teammate Alejandro Valverde, he managed to pull off the biggest win of his career. This year Rui Costa is back to defend his title and prove last year wasn’t one-time-thing. He won’t have Valverde to help him but riders like Amador, Karpets and Visconti (winner of two stages in the Giro d’Italia) should be enough. Rui Costa finished 3^rd overall in Tour de Romandie and I think he will make podium again in Switzerland this time. He’s strong uphill and downhill and will beat most of the other GC contenders in the final time trial.

The biggest threat to Rui Costa is Tejay van Garderen. The young American just won Tour of California last month and is obviously in great shape. Cadel Evans wants to lead BMC in the Tour this year but after a tough Giro d’Italia, I have my doubts if he will be strong enough. TJ turned out to be the strongest of the two riders last year and if he puts in another strong performance here, the BMC team will have to think hard about their pick for designated Tour captain. TJ isn’t the best climber in the race but he is strong enough to resist and stay close to the leader before the final time trial. It’s not a flat time trial this year though. The last 10 km are uphill with an average gradient of 9% but I don’t think any of the other GC contenders can beat TJ against the clock. There are no bonus seconds in this year’s Tour de Suisse and that means that if TJ can stay close to the favorites in the mountains, he can take back the lost time in the final time trial.

Team Blanco have already landed a new sponsor for the next two and half years (Belkin, starting from the Tour) so the pressure to perform is not as big as earlier. Still, they send a very strong team to Switzerland this year. The team have always done well here and with riders like Mollema, Sanchez, Nordhaug, Kruijswijk & Kelderman, I’m sure they will do something great. Mollema is the man for the general classification and being strong uphill, fast on the line and solid against the clock, I think he will be among the best uphill. Mollema is coming straight from a training camp in Sierra Nevada and even though that some times can result in mixed performances, I think he will be up there.

It’s difficult to rate Ryder Hesjedal. He came to the Giro in the something near the shape of his life but got sick. His legs were great in the beginning of the race but it’s never easy to say how they will respond after three weeks out of competition. Naturally, he is one of the big favorites if he’s ready again but with a mountain stage already on the second day, he can’t afford to start out too far of the pace.

I personally look forward to seeing what Thibaut Pinot has to offer in this race. The French climber showed a bit of his huge potential in last year’s Tour de France and this year he’s back to show more. Pinot is excellent on the hills and despite a somehow disappointing first half of the season, I think he will be gunning for the overall podium in Tour de Suisse. Pinot had high hopes for Tour de Romandie this year but only ended 12^th overall after the race organizers had to modify the big mountain stage. The Frenchman is still without a win this year and I think he will be eager to end that streak on the uphill finish on Stage 2. It’s a hard race and that suits Pinot just fine. His chances are never improved by two time trials but with the final one ending uphill, I think he will have good chances of making podium.

There are a long list of strong riders taking part in this year’s Tour de Suisse and as always in these Tour de France warm-up races we should see a couple of surprises. I think the final Top10 will be something like this:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Rui Costa

3. Bauke Mollema

4. Thibaut Pinot

5. Ryder Hesjedal

6. Peter Velits
7. Damiano Caruso

8. Janez Brajkovic

9. Simon Spilak

10. Diego Ulissi

Knocking on the door to Top10 I see riders like Kangert, Scarponi, Kreuziger, Dan Martin, Peraud, Dombrowski, Antón, De Greef, Monfort, Klöden & Roche. Also, notice that Andy Schleck is on the start list. He has already said he’s not going to win the Tour de France this year but he normally has a good day or two in Tour de Suisse. He may not be able to follow the best on the hills but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him attack from a far a couple of times.

As always, I have a joker for you. This time it’s Andrey Amador. He broke his collarbone - yes, again, third year in a row - when he crashed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege but he’s now ready to take on the second part of the season. It’s difficult to say how he will do without racing for almost two months but I have a feeling he will be up for it. The Costa Rican showed his great climbing legs in last year’s Giro d’Itlaia and did very well in Tirreno-Adriatico this year. He finished 8^th overall in the Italian stage race thanks to a surprisingly good time trial on the final day. Amador will start out this race as helper for Rui Costa but if he’s feeling good, I don’t see why Movistar shouldn’t end up with two riders in Top10 overall. Andrey Amador is also set to ride the Tour in support of Alejandro Valverde and he needs to show the team that he is up for the task.

Another good joker is Cameron Meyer. He's been doing better and better overall in the stage races the last years and the two time trials definitely favors the Australian. GreenEdge don't really have a team to support him in the mountains and that can be a problem. Still, I think he will be able to put in a great performance and end near Top10.

Contrary to Dauphiné, the stages in Tour de Suisse start rather late every day. That means the first rider won’t cross the finishing line until 18:30-19:00 CET. The two time trials end earlier though. Stage 1 around 16:45 and Stage 9 around 17:45.

For live coverage during the race check out steephill.tv.

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 7 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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The Queen stage of the race with the royally difficult climb of Alpe d’Huez to start the day before a succession of climbs before the tough Col du Noyer and its ski station at Superdévoluy.

This stage can’t be seen in isolation as it both complements and contrasts with Sunday’s final mountain stage, a procession of steep and awkward climbs as compared to the final day which offers more regular ramps. In fact this stage is probably the last chance for a shake-up on the overall.

Stage 6 Wrap: a lot of the action happened before the TV started. When Froome was interviewed live after the stage they said “so it was a calm day for you” and he had to correct it. The race covered 50km in the first hour and the fierce pace continued over the tough Col de Barioz in part because Europcar were setting the pace, which seemed odd as they had no sprinter or lead to protect.

It was only when the TV images began that the race began to settle and a breakaway of riders started to thin over the tricky roads. By then the legs were tired and, as predicted, the roads across the plateau didn’t lend themselves to a chase. With 40km to go two minutes’ lead was enough.

As for the result: two Astana team mates in a breakaway of four and Thomas Voeckler wins? As said before the Frenchman is someone who, if he enters a revolving door behind you, comes out ahead of you. To be fair to Astana, neither Egor Silin or Kevin Seeldrayers can sprint and nor can Movistar’s José Herrada so what could they do against a rider nicknamed “Francis” by his team mates in a nod to his bar-brawling skills. By contrast back in 2004 a young Voeckler won the bunch sprint into Grenoble after Michael Rasmussen and Ivan Basso had riden away to finish over six minutes ahead.

The Route: 4,700m in just 187km make this a tough mountain stage. The start is in Pont de Claix, a suburb of Grenoble where tall chimneys of industrial chemical plants are shrunk by the giant Belledone and Chartreuse cliffs. A short section of flat road to Vizille and then up the Gorges de la Romanche, a pesky road that alternates between fast and steep ramps, there’s nowhere to hide from the start.

Alpe d’Huez shouldn’t need any introduction but it’s normally a “summit” finish only this time the race up to the Alpe… and then further up to cross the Col de Sarenne. Alpe d’Huez is so famous you probably know it has 21 hairpin bends and finishes in a big ski station. An an average of 8.6% for 12km it’s a tough climb and many could be dropped early.

The road climbs above the ski resort to tackle the little-known Col de Sarenne, albeit with some descending on the approach to the col and then 3.1km at 6.8%. Here the road is a total contrast, a road that’s part farm trail and far from the mechanical ski lifts, concrete hotels, in fact from from everything. The descent is immediate and rough, a narrow road cut into the cliff where schist-like rocks crumble onto the road. It’s steep and has some hairpins, there are fast sections but know where to tuck and where to brake matter. Riders have been visiting the road in advance of the Dauphiné and Tour and many have noticed the wild side of the Sarenne although the more you descent, the more regular it becomes.

The Col d’Ornon is next and suffers from its proximity to Alpe d’Huez, overshadowed by the reputation of the ski station access road. For this is a great climb, scenic and with plenty of variation as it twists up a narrow valley. 10.5km at 6.1% but it goes up in steps. The descent is much more gentle with wide hairpin bends. Then follows an awkward crossing of the Valbonnais, rolling terrain enclosed by mountains where a chase can be organised but at the cost of a lot of energy.

The Col du Noyer (“Walnut Tree Pass”) is hard with irregular gradients and a series of hairpin bends with stunning views of the valley below. The upper slopes are particularly steep. They’re followed a fast six kilometre descent.

The Finish: by now there will be many tired legs so even if this is a regular climb to the small ski-station of Superdévoluy it can do some damage.

The Scenario: time is running out for many to make an impression in the race. Lower down the pecking order, maybe it’s reductive but plenty of riders in the race are wondering about selection for the Tour de France so a move could convince their team and in turn boost their market value for a new contract. So we can expect fireworks on the first climb with many trying to go clear.

For more secure riders the penultimate climb of the Col du Noyer should be their launchpad. Wait too long and they’ll get run over by Team Sky’s mountain train and the steep slopes suit the pure climbers who can exploit this part to get away and perhaps gain a few places on the GC.

Richie Porte has no worries about job security and with Chris Froome already in yellow and a stage win to his name, what if Porte was “allowed” to ride away? If only it were so easy but Porte seems to have the form for this. If not then the finish could suit Dani Moreno of Katusha as well as thus far stealthy team mate Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde. Another Spaniard is exiled Daniel Navarro of Cofidis who is climbing well. Of course there’s Alberto Contador who could play a 1-2 with in-form Michael Rogers although if the Australian is riding very well and has several stage race wins to his name, a victory salute is a rare thing.

Superstition: the French revolution was a mass movement but like this stage, Grenoble and Vizille were on the route. Grenoble saw rioting workers hurl tiles from the rooftops to royal troops and soon after Vizille saw local dignitaries gather to call for improved democracy. Perhaps it’s time for a French revolution in the Dauphiné after Thomas Voeckler ran riot yesterday?

Weather: turning cooler and cloudier with the chance of a shower at altitude. Top temperature of 19°C but closer to 12°C at altitude. cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have the links to video streams if you can’t get it on TV.

TV: the same schedule as during the week, the stage finishes early at 2.45pm.

Top 20 Overall
1 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 19:33:43
2 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:52
3 Rohan Dennis (Aus) Garmin-Sharp 0:00:54
4 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:01:37
5 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha 0:01:47
6 Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:49
7 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:52
8 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:01:58
9 Leopold Konig (Cze) Team NetApp-Endura 0:02:16
10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team 0:02:20
11 Stef Clement (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:02:32
12 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team 0:02:47
13 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:02:49
14 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:03:12
15 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:24
16 Kevin Seeldraeyers (Bel) Astana Pro Team 0:03:30
17 Ben Hermans (Bel) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:37
18 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ 0:03:41
19 Matthew Busche (USA) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:46
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:04:01

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 6 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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A good stage but it’s possible the best part is hidden from view as the tricky Col du Barioz will be climbed before the TV coverage begins. This climb is difficult and could be selective. It won’t Chris Froome and his team but it could see sprinters ejected for good despite the promise of a flat finish in Grenoble.

Stage 5 Wrap: Rohan Dennis enjoyed a day in yellow but cracked on the final climb. He did everything right in terms of positioning until he cracked and was left turning a giant gear, as if his front mech was stuck.

Chris Froome did what the Dutch call the dubbelslag: a double strike, he won the stage and took the overall lead. He said his team set the pace on the final climb so he felt obliged to win. He’s wooing the media at the moment, L’Equipe praised his manners after taking many questions in post-race press conference after the time trial despite his team media handler trying to get him out of there and Froome’s French will be an asset for the millions who will watch the race on TV. Froome will be more defined by his ability to get out of the saddle and win but if the French media have taken to him, all the better for him.

Back to the racing and Alejandro Valverde had a go but Team Sky’s mountain train had the better of him, Valverde’s best trick is a sprint on a mountain stage so it was a surprise to see him go early. Behind there was trouble for Joaquin Rodriguez who punctured whilst Pierre Rolland was delayed by a crash in front of him. With the tempo being set up ahead they could not get back.

Alberto Contador bounced back with an attack that only only Chris Froome could match. The Spaniard might have lost out in the time trial and will lose this race but he’s still climbing faster than the others in the lead group bar Froome.

Radioshack’s Matthew Busche deserves a mention. He was in the day’s break and when they started the first climb he’d vanished from the TV coverage. But as ever, the TV only looks at a tiny section of the race and Busche was pacing himself and eventually rode past his earlier breakaway companions with a measured effort on the climb and held on for third place. A note of Daniel Moreno and Daniel Navarro, potential mountain stage winners for the weekend.

The Route: it’s not possible to freewheel from the start to the finish but the race could ride down the main valley for an easy ride. Instead though the race heads away from the valley floor for a series of climbs, notably the Col du Barioz, 7.1km at 7.3% but the first kilometre is 10%. It’s on tricky roads that are narrow and reminiscent of the Giro and the Col des Ayes is sharp, 3.8 km climb at 8.1 %. Then the race sticks to series of lumpy roads.

The Finish: fast and flat, the last three kilometres are a straight line all the way until the 500m to go sign when a left-hander appears.

The Scenario: sprint or breakaway? It’s a short stage meaning if a move goes, it has to be kept on a tight rein and this is not easy for teams used to controlling a move in time rather than right from the start. Normally it would be time for a breakaway to enjoy the day but OPQS probably want to set up Gianni Meersman for the win and they have prodigious horsepower in Tony Martin, Sylvain Chavanel, Michał Kwiatkowski and more. Other teams also have ambitions, Sky could set up Edvald Boasson Hagen again whilst Elia Viviani seems to be climbing well. Nacer Bouhanni has been finding the climbing hard going and there’s not much time to get back on once the climbing is done, only 40km or so.

Superstition: still stuck for a pick? Thor Hushovd has showed himself in Stage 3 and the race arrives in Grenoble, the home of Stendhal, a French writer (despite the Norwegian-sounding nom de plume). His most famous book is probably Le Rouge et le Noir so what better place for a BMC rider to win?

TV: the Col du Barioz will be climbed around 1.00pm so it’ll be too early for the TV. Once again remember the early finish for 2.45pm. cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have the links to video streams if you can’t get it on TV.

Weather: the same as before only warmer: sunshine turning to rain with potentially a storm later on. But the early start and finish every day could be a saving grace for those who don’t like the rain. And should it rain, the temperature is forecast to rise steadily throughout the day, going from 21°C to a fine 26°C during the stage.

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 5 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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The first mountain stage of the race, Stage 5 takes the riders across the Alps to Valmorel for a summit finish but don’t mistake this for the high mountains, this is a gentle introduction to the mountains although enough to provide a worthy winner.

If the time trial provided plenty of information on the relative form of riders, now it’s time for a ramp test.

Stage 4 wrap: Tony Martin won as expected but imagine if he not been bothered by stomach problems, his margin could have been even bigger and he’d be in the lead now. Rohan Dennis is a revelation. He’s been tipped for big things as whilst peers like Jack Bobridge and Luke Durbridge are seen as time trial specialists who can branch out into more, it’s said Dennis is the complete package and can climb well too. But don’t put too much pressure on him. Remember this time last year? Wilco Keldermann finished in fourth after an even longer time trial, the Dutch neo-pro got a great result and continues to progress but has yet to win big so hopefully Dennis can enjoy his day. Dennis was asked in a TV interview if he’d ride the Tour but he’s surely too young… although Garmin-Sharp might like him for the first week and the team time trial stage?

The stage was billed as a duel between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador but El Pistolero found his trigger was jammed, he says it’s allergies and the late and sudden spring means a high pollen count is getting to many. It’s not new but the Spaniard seemed allergic to his time trial position, shuffling on the saddle every few pedal strokes. Team Sky’s strong performance is even better news for Chris Froome. I’ve seen a few people talking up rivalry from Richie Porte but the pair train together regularly and I can’t see it. Instead it bodes well for Team Sky in the team time trial of the Tour de France although Froome’s odds for July have improved to the point where you’re wondering if they’ll be any suspense. But we’ve yet to see how he’s climbing.

Lieuwe Westra had a bad day, hopefully it’s his injuries and he’ll recover for July but he lost four minutes and Jurgen Van Den Broeck had a bad day too. Pierre Rolland lost two and half minutes, will he settle for this? His build makes him look like more than a climber but he could be limited to the mountains. Watch him this week.

The Route: the stage is short at 139km, indeed so short that the route has a loop where the race returns to the start in Grésy after 21km to add more kilometres. The Côte de Trévignin is 4.4 km climb at 6.6 %, a meaningful climb to lift the race up onto the Plateau des Bauges and crossing the route of Stage 20 of the Tour, the final mountain stage. The Col du Frêne is a tough climb… if tackled from the other side. Here it’s barely a mountain pass on this side and acts as an exit for the race to descend towards Albertville.

The Finish: there are two roads up but this takes the south-eastern way via Le Bois and the climb is 12.7km long at 7%. It’s a big wide regular road, the classic kind you find in the Alps to ferry coachloads of skiers to a resort. The route twists and turns with a series of hairpin bends near the finish, an ideal point for attacks where riders can exploit the gradient. It’s uphill all the way to the line but, despite the profile above, looks to level off a bit before the line.

The Scenario: the short distance should incite an early breakaway and the Côte de Trévignin is ideal for a move to go clear although their could be fight across the plateau to get into the day’s breakaway. The main thing to note is the final climb is 12km and after 120km, should take 30 minutes, it’s much shorter than, say, Alpe d’Huez and so leaves the result open to more riders.

Can Rohan Dennis hold on to the lead? There’s only five seconds between him and Chris Froome and we’ve yet to see how the Australian climbs but let’s note expect too much. The finish could suit him as it’s not so steep but for a neo-pro one day in the Dauphiné lead is already impressive. In some ways Sky might not want to assume the lead yet so that Garmin-Sharp can do the work every day but Chris Froome could well do with some more experience in leading a race and all that goes with it to add to his Tour de Romandie experience. Perhaps though Richie Porte could get something and we’ll how the other Sky riders are climbing. Maybe their mountain train makes an appearance?

It’s also the chance to see how others are doing. In particular what of Joaquin Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde? The finish is ideal for Valverde if he can follow the moves on the way up and deploy his finishing speed. For outside picks the finish isn’t ideal for a pure climber, it’s relatively short and fast so I’d discount the likes of Kenny Elissonde, instead look at Rein Taaramae who has been active in race already. His Cofidis team mate Daniel Navarro had a good time trial and should be climbing better.

Weather: sunshine turning to rain with potentially a storm. But the early start and finish every day could be a saving grace for those who don’t like the rain. And should it rain, the temperature is forecast to rise steadily throughout the day, going from 20°C to a fine 24°C during the day.

TV: tune in for the last hour to watch the approach to the final climb as the breakaway and bunch approach.

Top 20 Overall
1 Rohan Dennis (Aus) Garmin-Sharp 12:40:00
2 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:05
3 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:00:26
4 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:32
5 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:33
6 Geraint Thomas (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:55
7 David Veilleux (Can) Team Europcar 0:01:09
8 Leopold Konig (Cze) Team NetApp-Endura 0:01:11
9 Stef Clement (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:01:14
10 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team 0:01:26
11 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:01:30
12 Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:33
13 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha 0:01:40
14 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:01:41
15 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:45
16 Tony Gallopin (Fra) RadioShack Leopard 0:01:49
17 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) RadioShack Leopard 0:01:52
18 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team 0:01:56
19 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ 0:02:05
20 Ben Hermans (Bel) RadioShack Leopard

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 4 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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A flat time trial might not make for good TV viewing but it’s Act 1 in the duel between Alberto Contador and Chris Froome and the first time we get to see the relative form of all the other candidates to win this race and the Tour de France.

Stage 3 Wrap: I’d picked Edvald Boasson Hagen for Stage 1 but he wasn’t in the mix nor yesterday so his return was a surprise. The fast finish saw the bunch strung out through the final corners and Boasson Hagen timed his move perfectly.

The Route: flat. Normally the vertical gain of each stage is listed by the race organisers but it’s not worth listing this time. The route runs through the Dombes, a relatively small area of land but where about one fifth of France’s lakes are concentrated and the roads are exposed on embankments above the water. It’s still scenic but technically similar to a time trial in the Netherlands. But the roads do undulate in places and knowing when to change gear will play a role although for the most part it’s all about turning a huge gear.

The Scenario: normally there’d be Tony Martin and then everyone else. The world time trial champion would be expected to blitz the course with his mix of raw power and technical proficiency. But he’s been laid low by a stomach problems and almost didn’t start Stage 3. So the result could depend on the state of Martin’s intestines rather than his legs and lungs.

Behind we’ll see how Alberto Contador and Chris Froome fare. They’ve only raced four time trials together and Froome has finished faster three times so history is on the British rider’s side. But it’ll be interesting to see how they fare as the Tour de France has a flat 33km time trial on Stage 11 which is just 35 days away so there’s not much room to improve. Froome’s visited a wind tunnel for the first time in his career in recent months. We’ll see if he’s improved his time trial position, at least in style via TV images.

Others to watch include Richie Porte who might prefer a hillier route but can win outright, Geraint Thomas too. This is also the case for their ex-team mate Michael Rogers now at Saxo-Tinkoff. Jurgen Van Den Broeck should make the top-5 like he always does. Lieuwe Westra had a big crash on Stage 2 and went for x-rays, he’s back in the race but this is bound to hurt. Sylvain Chavanel’s powerful against the watch and reigning French champion and he’s been active in the last few days.. a sign he’s ready to waste or has he tired himself out? His team mate Michał Kwiatkowski is one to watch, he’s a talent for the future and it takes time to learn how to ride against the clock. Talking of progress, Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo has been fast in short distance events, can he improve over 32km? Finally NetApp probably won’t win but the likes of Alexander Wetterhall and Jan Barta are strong on a flat course like this.

Weather: a pleasant day with sunshine and almost no wind. The forecast says a 5km/h breeze coming from the north-west meaning a tiny headwind on the way back.

TV: the last rider is forecast to arrive at 2.38pm Euro time with Froome and Contador finishing around 2.15pm so tune in for the last hour to watch the main names in action. cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have the links to video streams if you can’t get it on TV.

Local rider: Fumiyuki Beppu of Orica-Greenedge might be the last name you’d pick for a local. But the Japanese rider from Chigasaki on an Australian team lives 10km from the course today and so he’s out on his training roads. In fact he was on them for Stage 3 when he got in the day’s early breakaway too. Beppu is probably the most French of all the Japanese pros, having lived in France for some time after racing as an amateur with the VC La Pomme team, even more so than Yukiya Arashiro who’s spent years with in the French amateur ranks, signed for BBox and now riders with Europcar. Many Japanese riders find the French diet a shock but Beppu is the kind of rider who eats a croissant for breakfast now and then.